For Monday, May 15th

"I think there is only one quality worse than hardness of heart and that is softness of head."

* * * Abraham Lincoln

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.48%

For the year 2017: +3.02%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL AS OF 5/11/17

A close above 2397.38 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 2377.48 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now flat the June SP after being stopped out at 2391.80... place a buy stop to go long at 2397.40... if filled, place an exit stop at 2387.30... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will always be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2377.40 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2387.50... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Flat 2393.90 as of 5/11/17 - - there are now 24 completed trades for a total gain of 565.90 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 2378.00 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2373.00 and 2272.00, if filled place an exit stop at 2380.00... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2377.98...

The last trade at this writing is at 2388.20 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2382.90 as of Thursday, May 11th...

The trading range is beginning to tighten, something will give way soon enough...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2400.604 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2388.20

minor - - 2377.98
minor - - 2373.91

MAJOR - - 2263.55 and must close above that price on Wednesday, May 24th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
SVP - - none

minor - - 2316.82

MAJOR - - 2282.84 and must close above that price on Monday, June 19th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

It looks like the MCI is beginning to fall back...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

This flat line graph is beginning to look more and more toppy...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum line is now moving lower... not really bullish right now...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 5/3/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1223.80 as of Thursday, May 11th...

Today's last trade is at 1228.10...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 1223.90 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1223.81...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none

minor - - 1246.04
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1228.10
MAJOR - - 1223.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

All key lines are now moving higher, this also includes the momentum line which turned upward as of today...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

Looks like the momentum line is ready to turn upward, but we'll probably need another few days...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Friday, May 12th

"Be sure to taste your words before you spit them out."

* * * Abraham Lincoln

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.48%

For the year 2017: +3.02%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL AS OF 5/11/17

A close above 2398.87 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 2368.65 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now flat the June SP after being stopped out at 2391.80... place a buy stop to go long at 2398.90... if filled, place an exit stop at 2388.80... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will always be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2368.60 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2378.70... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long 2364.50 as of 4/24/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 2383.00 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2378.00 and 2277.00, if filled place an exit stop at 2385.00... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2382.905...

The last trade at this writing is at 2391.00 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2382.90 as of Thursday, May 11th...

The trading range is beginning to tighten, something will give way soon enough...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2425.91 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2405.06 and must close below that price on Friday, May 12th to confirm a new main model sell signal... already below this major VP
MAJOR - - 2400.604 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2394.45
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2391.00
MAJOR - - 2382.905 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal... held over for another day
minor - - 2377.98
minor - - 2373.91
minor - - 2365.72
MAJOR - - 2263.55 and must close above that price on Wednesday, May 24th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
SVP - - 2349.159
minor - - 2318.23
MAJOR - - 2287.301 and must close above that price on Monday, June 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

The MCI still looks bullish even though the BTIT went neutral as of today...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

The flat line is moving down, the market price is below the anti price, and the momentum line is also moving lower... this is not a bullish picture...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

You may not be able to see it on this graph, but the momentum line has turned perfectly flat as of today... this market has now lost all it's upside momentum as of today...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 5/3/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1223.80 as of Thursday, May 11th...

Today's last trade is at 1224.90...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 1223.90 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1223.81...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none

minor - - 1246.04
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1224.90
MAJOR - - 1223.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

The flat line continues higher, the momentum line continues lower but is now extremely oversold... from such an oversold level, we could see a more significant rally, but we'll see...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The LT momentum line also continues lower, but is no longer overbought...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Thursday, May 11th

"Be sure to taste your words before you spit them out."

* * * Abraham Lincoln

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.48%

For the year 2017: +3.02%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 4/24/17

A close below 2393.89 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2362.09 would turn the BTIT to down...

PER THIS MORNING'S UPDATE:

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now long the June SP at 2392.50 on a stop... place a sell stop to go flat at 2391.80... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will always be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2362.00 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2372.10... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long 2364.50 as of 4/24/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close below 2396.30 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2391.30 and 2290.30, if filled place an exit stop at 2398.30... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2396.24...

The last trade at this writing is at 2396.40 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2394.40 as of Wednesday, May 10th...

The trading range is beginning to tighten, something will give way soon enough...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2425.91 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2405.06 and must close below that price on Friday, May 12th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2400.604 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2396.40
minor - - 2396.24
minor - - 2394.45
MAJOR - - 2382.905 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2377.98
minor - - 2365.72
SVP - - 2349.159
minor - - 2318.23
MAJOR - - 2287.301 and must close above that price on Monday, June 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

The MCI continue higher again today... construed as bullish...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

Today, notice that the flat line is still moving lower... also, the market price is now below the anti price AND the momentum line has turned downward... caution here!!!


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The longer term momentum line is now beginning to slow it rise...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 5/3/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now short the June gold from 1223.90 as of Tuesday, May 9th...

Today's last trade is at 1219.20...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close above 1223.80 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1223.81...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none

minor - - 1246.04

MAJOR - - 1223.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1219.20

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

The flat line is showing a market that is trying to bottom, but the momentum line continues lower while already deeply oversold... something's gotta give!!!


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

Meanwhile, the longer term momentum line continues down and is not at all oversold...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Wednesday, May 10th

"Be sure to taste your words before you spit them out."

* * * Abraham Lincoln

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.48%

For the year 2017: +3.02%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 4/24/17

A close below 2387.53 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2356.76 would turn the BTIT to down...

PER THIS MORNING'S UPDATE:

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now long the June SP at 2392.50 on a stop... place a sell stop to go flat at 2385.50... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will always be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2356.70 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2366.80... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long 2364.50 as of 4/24/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close above 2394.40 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a long position with a close between 2399.40 and 2400.40, if filled place an exit stop at 2392.40... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2394.45...

The last trade at this writing is at 2392.00 in the June...

The main model is now short the June SP from 2396.30 as of Tuesday, May 9th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2425.91 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2405.06 and must close below that price on Friday, May 12th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2400.604 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2396.24
minor - - 2394.45
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2392.00
MAJOR - - 2382.905 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2377.98
minor - - 2365.72
SVP - - 2349.159
minor - - 2318.23
MAJOR - - 2287.301 and must close above that price on Monday, June 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

The MCI continues higher while the market itself went sideways today... this suggests a higher market again tomorrow... so, we'll see...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

Well, it was bound to happen, the momentum line turned downward today and the flat line continued lower from yesterday's down turn... I did say yesterday that this flat line looked a bit toppy, it looks even more toppy today... a rally tomorrow will reinstate it...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum line today barely moved... the upward momentum is clearly slowing down...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 5/3/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now short the June gold from 1223.90 as of Tuesday, May 9th...

Today's last trade is at 1221.80...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close above 1223.80 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1223.81...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none

minor - - 1246.04

MAJOR - - 1223.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1221.80

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

The flat line has turned higher and is giving the impression that this market is ready to turn upward... also, the momentum line is now deeply oversold... I would not be surprised if we see a rally in this market sooner than later...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

We can see that the longer term momentum line still works lower, but the decline is now slowed...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Tuesday, May 9th

"Be sure to taste your words before you spit them out."

* * * Abraham Lincoln

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.18%

For the year 2017: +2.72%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 4/24/17

A close below 2383.45 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2352.25 would turn the BTIT to down...

PER THIS MORNING'S UPDATE:

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now long the June SP at 2392.50 on a stop... place a sell stop to go flat at 2381.40... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will always be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2352.20 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2362.30... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long 2364.50 as of 4/24/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close below 2394.50 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2389.50 and 2388.50, if filled place an exit stop at 2396.50... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2394.45...

The last trade at this writing is at 2395.20 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2382.90 as of Monday, May 1st...

We did have a sell signal this morning but the market traded all over the place and remained long after trading below the 2394.45 VP... there are lots of VP prices very close to one another, this is going to be a sticky market until it clears this price level...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2425.91 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2405.06 and must close below that price on Friday, May 12th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2400.604 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2396.24
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2395.20
minor - - 2394.45
MAJOR - - 2382.905 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2377.98
minor - - 2365.72
SVP - - 2349.159
minor - - 2318.23
MAJOR - - 2287.301 and must close above that price on Monday, June 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

The MCI appears ready to continue higher...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

Very frankly, the flat line graph looks toppy now and the momentum line is slowing down... this market needs a good boost quickly or we'll see it move lower...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

This momentum line looks better than the flat line momentum line... this line is a longer term line...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 5/3/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1223.80 as of Monday, May 8th...

Today's last trade is at 1227.10...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close below 1223.90 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1223.81...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none

minor - - 1246.04
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1227.10

MAJOR - - 1223.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

The market itself looks terrible, but very frankly the flat line looks promising... the flat line itself is turning up where previous lows have been made and the momentum line is in the vicinity of previous lows... maybe this market will surprise us with a rally tomorrow...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

Nothing here to celebrate, the momentum line still continues downward...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Monday, May 8th

If all the economists were laid end to end, they'd still never reach a conclusion.

* * * George Bernard Shaw

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.18%

For the year 2017: +2.72%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 4/24/17

A close below 2380.46 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2348.34 would turn the BTIT to down...

PER THIS MORNING'S UPDATE:

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now long the June SP at 2392.50 on a stop... place a sell stop to go flat at 2378.40... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will always be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2348.30 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2358.40... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long 2364.50 as of 4/24/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 2396.30 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2391.30 and 2390.30, if filled place an exit stop at 2398.30... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A major VP at 2382.905...

The last trade at this writing is at 2398.00 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2382.90 as of Monday, May 1st...

The same as yesterday, we actually had a morning sell signal, but then the market traded down below the next lower VP and then rallied back up... so, the main model remains long this market for now...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2425.91 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2405.06 and must close below that price on Friday, May 12th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2400.604 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2398.00
minor - - 2396.24
minor - - 2394.45
MAJOR - - 2382.905 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2377.98
minor - - 2365.72
SVP - - 2349.159
minor - - 2318.23
MAJOR - - 2287.301 and must close above that price on Monday, June 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

We can see divergent lows and what looks like a possible upside break out for the MCI and the SPY... you have to love this MCI chart, it gives such a clean picture of the condition and status of this market... for the past two days we saw the MCI move straight upward even when the market itself went sideways... and now it looks like the upside market move will finally come to fruition...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

The flat line itself looks a bit toppy, but all the other key lines look very good... not to worry...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

Very nice bullish momentum line...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 5/3/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now short the June gold from 1274.30 as of Tuesday, April 25th...

Today's last trade is at 1229.40...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close above 1246.00 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1246.04...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none

minor - - 1246.04
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1229.40

MAJOR - - 1223.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

The flat line looks like it wants to bottom in here, but the momentum lines continues lower... we could see a rally soon, but the main model remains short for now...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The LT momentum line is still in the overbought zone... looks like this market may still have lots more downside to travel...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Friday, May 5th

If all the economists were laid end to end, they'd still never reach a conclusion.

* * * George Bernard Shaw

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.18%

For the year 2017: +2.72%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 4/24/17

A close below 2379.34 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2348.21 would turn the BTIT to down...

PER THIS MORNING'S UPDATE:

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now flat the June SP after being stopped out at 2377.30 for a very nice gain on this trade... for tomorrow, place a buy stop at 2392.50, if filled place an exit stop at 2377.30... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2348.20 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2358.30... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long 2364.50 as of 4/24/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 2383.00 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2378.00 and 2377.00, if filled place an exit stop at 2385.00... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A major VP at 2382.905...

The last trade at this writing is at 2385.50 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2382.90 as of Monday, May 1st...

The same as yesterday, we actually had a morning sell signal, but then the market traded down below the next lower VP and then rallied back up... so, the main model remains long this market for now...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2425.91 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2404.94 and must close below that price on Friday, May 12th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2400.604 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2396.24
minor - - 2394.45
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2385.50
MAJOR - - 2382.905 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2377.98
minor - - 2365.72
SVP - - 2349.159
minor - - 2318.23
MAJOR - - 2287.301 and must close above that price on Monday, June 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

Yesterday, the MCI anticipated a higher opening, and we did get one... but then, that was all it did today... and with today's market again going sideways, we again see another big up move in the MCI... market confidence is building here, this is bullish...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

All key lines continue higher...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

Gaining bullish momentum...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 5/3/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now short the June gold from 1274.30 as of Tuesday, April 25th...

This market just barely missed the downside major VP at 1223.89 before turning higher... this market may well be ready to turn upward, let's watch this one...

Today's last trade is at 1229.10...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close above 1246.00 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1246.04...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none

minor - - 1246.04
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1229.10

MAJOR - - 1223.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

All key lines continue lower, but this market is becoming oversold...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

Looks like there's more downside room to go... but still, the flat line graph shows an oversold market right now...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Thursday, May 4th

"Some events test our courage, some people inspire our strength, and some moments define our spirit."

* * * Anonymous

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.18%

For the year 2017: +2.72%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 4/24/17

A close below 2377.54 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2343.97 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now flat the June SP after being stopped out at 2377.30 for a very nice gain on this trade... using the optimized strategy may stop you out early but the strategy requires absolutely no thinking whatsoever... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2343.90 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2354.00... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long 2364.50 as of 4/24/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close below 2383.00 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2378.00 and 2377.00, if filled place an exit stop at 2385.00... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A major VP at 2382.905...

The last trade at this writing is at 2383.20 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2382.90 as of Monday, May 1st...

We actually had a morning sell signal, but then the market traded down below the next lower VP and then rallied back... so, the main model remains long this market for now...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2425.91 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2400.604 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2394.45
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2383.20
MAJOR - - 2382.905 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2377.98
minor - - 2365.72
SVP - - 2349.159
minor - - 2345.28
minor - - 2329.99
minor - - 2318.23
minor - - 2314.69
MAJOR - - 2289.85 and must close above that price on Wednesday, May 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2287.301 and must close above that price on Monday, June 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2186.65 (no typo error) and must close above that price on Monday, May 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

Today we see the MCI take a big leap higher while the market itself went sideways... this suggests that confidence is returning to this market and that we should see a move higher likely tomorrow... we'll see if it holds true...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

All key lines are moving higher, good for us...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum line moves higher without hesitation...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 5/3/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now short the June gold from 1274.30 as of Tuesday, April 25th...

Today's last trade is at 1239.90...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close above 1246.00 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1246.04...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none

minor - - 1246.04
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1239.90

MAJOR - - 1223.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

Nothing bullish about these graphs, although you can see that the flat line itself is now deep in the oversold zone, the momentum line is only first crossing below the zero line, this market had been very overbought...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

This LT momentum graph looks like a slow motion train wreck, it's still overbought and has plenty of downside to go provided it actually does go the full distance...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Wednesday, May 3rd

"Some events test our courage, some people inspire our strength, and some moments define our spirit."

* * * Anonymous

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.18%

For the year 2017: +2.72%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 4/24/17

A close below 2379.31 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2340.41 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now long the June SP on a 2360.80 stop, filled on the opening at 2364.50... for tomorrow, place a sell stop to go flat the June at 2377.30, this will lock in a nice profit for this trade... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... also, place a sell stop to go short the June at 2340.40 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2350.50... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long 2364.50 as of 4/24/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close below 2383.00 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for more aggressive traders, you bought at 2387.90, for this evening and tomorrow place an exist stop at 2381.00... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2378.00 and 2377.00, if filled place an exit stop at 2385.00... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A major VP at 2382.905...

The last trade at this writing is at 2387.00 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2382.90 as of Monday, May 1st...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2425.91 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2400.604 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2394.45
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2387.00
MAJOR - - 2382.905 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2377.98
minor - - 2365.72
SVP - - 2349.159
minor - - 2345.28
minor - - 2329.99
minor - - 2318.23
minor - - 2314.69
MAJOR - - 2289.85 and must close above that price on Wednesday, May 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2287.301 and must close above that price on Monday, June 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2186.65 (no typo error) and must close above that price on Monday, May 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

The MCI show no real move either way for today...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

The momentum indicator continues higher, but the flat line is beginning to appear a bit toppy... let's see what happens tomorrow...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

This momentum line also continues higher...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL as of 4/11/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 1248.201 would turn the BTIT to down...

The main model is now short the June gold from 1274.30 as of Tuesday, April 25th...

Today's last trade is at 1257.70...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close above 1274.20 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1274.29...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1257.70
SVP - - none

minor - - 1246.04

MAJOR - - 1223.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

Nothing bullish about this graph, all key lines continue lower... although this market is no longer overbought, the momentum line is approaching the neutral zone...

THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

Nothing bullish here...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Tuesday, May 2nd

"Some events test our courage, some people inspire our strength, and some moments define our spirit."

* * * Anonymous

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.10%

For the year 2017: +2.64%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 4/24/17

A close below 2337.36 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2337.36 would turn the BTIT to down... yes, same price for now...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now long the June SP on a 2360.80 stop, filled on the opening at 2364.50... for tomorrow, place a sell stop to go flat the June at 2337.30... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... also, place a sell stop to go short the June at 2337.30 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2347.40... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long 2364.50 as of 4/24/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close below 2383.00 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for more aggressive traders, you can enter a buy stop at 2387.90 for this evening and tomorrow with an exist stop at 2381.00... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2378.00 and 2377.00, if filled place an exit stop at 2385.00... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A major VP at 2382.905...

The last trade at this writing is at 2387.00 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2382.90 as of Monday, May 1st...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2425.91 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2400.604 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2394.45
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2387.00
MAJOR - - 2382.905 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2377.98
minor - - 2365.72
SVP - - 2349.159
minor - - 2345.28
minor - - 2329.99
MAJOR - - 2322.74 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal... (the main model is already long)
minor - - 2318.23
minor - - 2314.69
MAJOR - - 2289.85 and must close above that price on Wednesday, May 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2287.301 and must close above that price on Monday, June 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2186.65 (no typo error) and must close above that price on Monday, May 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

As of today, the MCI appears to be stronger than the market itself... this suggests that confidence has returned to this market... this is encouraging since the main model is now long this market...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

All key lines are moving higher, what's not to like???


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum line is also continuing higher... all good news, so far...

 

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL as of 4/11/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 1248.201 would turn the BTIT to down...

The main model is now short the June gold from 1274.30 as of Tuesday, April 25th...

Today's last trade is at 1257.90...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close above 1274.20 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1274.29...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1257.90
SVP - - none

minor - - 1246.04

MAJOR - - 1223.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...
Nothing bullish about this graph, all key lines continue lower...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

This LT graph looks very toppy, look at the momentum line double top, not bullish looking at all... the main model stays short this market...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading