THE HOBAN RULE, THE NEAR TERM (NT), AND LONG TERM (LT) INDICATORS

The Hoban Rule...  
The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals...  using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...  
The Hoban Rule can be used just as easily for both the SP and for gold...  what I like about this strategy is that this is a far more comfortable and more stress free trading strategy which I believe many of you may find helpful in eliminating new signal entry whips...   this trading strategy can be used with some flexibility...  for example, if the criteria for taking a new main model position is not met on the signal confirmation day itself, the Hoban Rule also allows for an entry days after the signal has been confirmed provided the criteria is met a day or so later...
 
The Hoban Rule itself is presented in clear step by step detail in the tutorial and will remain part of the standard tutorial for easy reference as of today...
 
What Is The Hoban Rule?
 
By far, the biggest problem subscribers have is finding a way to enter a new position on a newly confirmed signal without incurring any whips whatsoever...  there is little doubt that the main model itself yields profitable results over the long term, but the individual human element of deciding how to enter the trade and having to determine whether or not the signal may or may not be confirmed becomes a problem for so many people...   addressing this problem and resolving this issue has been under study for a very long time...  therefore, after considerable systematic examination and detailed research, a newly developed trading rule has now been developed that addresses these very issues and still maintains an impressive performance record to date...
 
This trading strategy was initially intended to be designed specifically for those subscribers who want to take profitable advantage of the main model signals but are not able to watch the constant market action throughout the day...  however, due to it's evident potential, it can certainly also be used by anyone who would prefer to eliminate completely making subjective judgement calls on whether or not a new signal may or may not be confirmed on any given day, and, as well,  also spend less time watching the market action throughout the day...      the rules are very simple and straight forward, it requires absolutely no individual judgement or subjective decision making, and it necessitates very little time watching the market on your part...  the trade is entered and exited simply on whether or not the market closing price meets the prerequisites for this strategy...  simply this, if the market meets the entry criteria, then you enter the trade...  if the market meets the exit criteria, then you exit the trade...  there is nothing to decide, nothing could be simpler...
 
This trading strategy has been back tested for more than 5 years using the confirmation prices only...  although this may not seem like much of a long term test sample, it is fair to say that there has been no noticeable variation in these markets per the main model for many years, so the performance record of this trading strategy is attractive and may well represent market returns for a much longer period of time...  
The Hoban Rule has been used for real time trading since September, 2014, directly below is the performance history...  below the performance history are the 
 
If you have any question regarding the application of this strategy, please ask...
The first trade was done on 9/4/14...  a total of 18 trades...  a total gain of 175.7 SP points overall..  the average overall gain is 9.76 points per trade...  10 winning trades, 8 losses...  the winning average (WA) is 23.51 points per trade, the losing average (LA) trade was for 6.91 points, this is about a 3.4 to 1 win ratio in win/loss points with an overall winning trade percentage of 55.55%...  if you have any questions on this, please just ask...
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THE HOBAN RULE
 
For gold, each point is one dollar...
 
To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:
 
1)  The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and
 
2)  The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...
 
Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information...   if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade...  or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF...  or you can simply take the trade the following morning...
 
However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...
 
In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:
 
1)  Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...
 
To exit the trade:
 
1)  Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price...  if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...
 
2)  If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...
 
3)  If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...
 
4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price...  but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...
 
Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close...  and, also, all entry whips are completely eliminated...
 
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
THE LONG TERM (LT) INDICATOR
 
Below are two graphs for the longer term (LT) indicator, one for the SP and one for gold...  these graphs shown below are current only though March 11th...  paid subscribers receive constant updated current graphs each day in their email subscription briefings...

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a change in trend direction...
 

Consider this graph much like an X-ray picture of the market itself, something you will not see merely by looking at the chart or by crunching volume, advances/declines, or what ever other market internal data you might gather...  this LT indicator measures time and speed of price in a way that gives you a clear picture of where the market is now (green price line), early warning signs that the trend is losing or gathering steam (purple line crossing through the red line), and further final confirmation, an imminent warning, that the trend is about to turn (blue line crossing through the red line)...

 
Therefore, we want to monitor the purple and blue lines for early and imminent warnings of a likely trend change if/when they pass through the red line (the confirmation line)...
 
The current picture of the LT for the SP (seen below) shows that the early warning line has already crossed the red line about a week ago...  this means caution, much like a green traffic light turning amber before turning red...  and today we have the blue line also crossing down through the red line...  this now means a much higher likelihood that a down trend now begun...  today, we also had a sell signal signal confirmation with the main model...    although we may see the blue line cross the red confirmation line even before a main model signal is confirmed...  this could happen...
 
There are so many additional things to notice with these lines, such as 
 
1)  how the purple line recently crossed below the red line and then came back up to touch the red line before moving lower again... 
 
2)  how the blue line bounced off the red line and then returned to cross it as of today...
 
2)  the purple/blue lines actually spike before the market tops or bottoms, this is an advanced warning ahead of the market, sometimes by days...
 
3)  there are also the traditional divergent patterns among the purple and blue lines...
 
There are several more patterns that can be pointed out, but rather than discussing each and every movement of these lines and what they mean, I point them out each day in the email briefings as they actually occur in real time...   the LT basics can be found in the tutorial at the bottom of each email briefing for easy reference...
 
Regardless of where the lines may be, the main model signals will ALWAYS take priority although they can easily occur simultaneously, even if the blue line crosses the red line prior to a main model signal...
 
The LT for the gold market can be seen below the SP LT......  notice the powerful upward thrusts of the purple and blue lines through the red line at the beginning of each and every major rally...
 

 
With the gold market, we can see that the early warning purple line has crossed downward through the red line about a week ago...  this tells us that the market is about to stall and possibly turn, at that point it's just an early warning...  the blue line has crossed below and above the red line twice in that same week...  interestingly, this also coincides with the rejected sell signals we've seen with the gold market over the past week or so...  and also, we can notice that as of this morning the blue line has again turned upward and closed today just barely above the red line, this means the likelihood of a trend change has been reduced, at least for now...  if the blue line remains above the red line and then the purple line also crosses back up above the red line along with the blue line, then we will have an all clear signal that the trend is less likely to turn and should continue higher...
 

 
We've had several rejected main model sell signals in gold in recent days, and you can see how this is reflected and measured buy the tentative crossings of the blue line downward through the red line...  so, in many ways, the LT also gives you a historic picture of strength and momentum of the market in relation to buy/sell warning and confirmations and their relationship to the main model signals themselves...
 
In both LT graphs, you will also notice that the trend may continue for some time even though the early warning purple line had already crossed the red line...  realize, the purple line is just that, an early warning sign, it doesn't signal a trend change but only a warning to be alert...  it is the blue line crossing the red line which tells you of an imminent threat of trend change...
 
If you have any questions regarding this LT indicator, then please feel welcome to ask...
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The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread
 
This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets...  this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points...  this spread generates profits regardless of market direction...  the details on how to use this spread is exclusive only to paid subscribers, if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...
 
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The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

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