For Monday, May 1st

"Take my advice — I'm not using it."

* * * Anonymous

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.10%

For the year 2017: +2.64%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 4/24/17

A close below 2334.73 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2334.73 would turn the BTIT to down... yes, same price for now...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now long the June SP on a 2360.80 stop, filled on the opening at 2364.50... for tomorrow, place a sell stop to go flat the June at 2334.70... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... also, place a sell stop to go short the June at 2334.70 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2344.80... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long 2364.50 as of 4/24/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close above 2382.90 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a long position with a close between 2387.90 and 2388.90, if filled place an exit stop at 2380.90... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A major VP at 2382.905...

The last trade at this writing is at 2380.50 in the June...

The main model is now short the June SP from 2383.00 as of Friday, April 28th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2425.91 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2400.604 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2394.45
MAJOR - - 2382.905 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2380.50
minor - - 2377.98
minor - - 2365.72
minor - - 2345.28
minor - - 2329.99
MAJOR - - 2322.74 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 2314.69
MAJOR - - 2289.85 and must close above that price on Wednesday, May 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2186.65 (no typo error) and must close above that price on Monday, May 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for April below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

We can now see that the SPY moved above the most recent intermediate high while the MCI did not... this is a negative divergence... while the market continued to rally, the level of market confidence did not recover as much... the main model is now short, this may be the better position for the next few market days...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

Those happy days didn't last too long... while the momentum line still moves higher, the flat line itself looks toppy...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum line continues higher... this beans the broader trend is still upward...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL as of 4/11/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 1248.201 would turn the BTIT to down...

The main model is now short the June gold from 1274.30 as of Tuesday, April 25th...

Today's last trade is at 1269.60...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close above 1274.20 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1274.29...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1269.60
SVP - - none

minor - - 1246.04

MAJOR - - 1223.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

The only thing bullish here is that the flat line itself is looking toppy... although, the gold chart itself looks like it does want to rally from here...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

This also look toppy...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Friday, April 28th

"Take my advice — I'm not using it."

* * * Anonymous

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.10%

For the year 2017: +2.64%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 4/24/17

A close below 2332.44 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2332.44 would turn the BTIT to down... yes, same price for now...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now long the June SP on a 2360.80 stop, filled on the opening at 2364.50... for tomorrow, place a sell stop to go flat the June at 2332.40... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... also, place a sell stop to go short the June at 2332.40 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2342.50... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long 2364.50 as of 4/24/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 2383.00 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... place a buy stop at 2388.00 to go long, if filled place an exit stop to go flat at 2381.00 for a total of 7 points risk... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2378.00 and 2377.00, if filled place an exit stop at 2385.00... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A major VP at 2382.905...

The last trade at this writing is at 2386.00 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2382.90 as of Thursday, April 27th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2425.91 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2400.604 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2394.45
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2386.00
MAJOR - - 2382.905 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2377.98
minor - - 2365.72
minor - - 2345.28
minor - - 2329.99
MAJOR - - 2322.74 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 2314.69
MAJOR - - 2289.85 and must close above that price on Wednesday, May 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2186.65 (no typo error) and must close above that price on Monday, May 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for April below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

This is beginning to look more like a continuation up trending pattern...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

All key lines are moving higher, especially the moentnum line... happy days are here again!!!


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum line is also moving higher, a very good picture of an ongoing uptrend...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL as of 4/11/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 1248.201 would turn the BTIT to down...

The main model is now short the June gold from 1274.30 as of Tuesday, April 25th...

Today's last trade is at 1265.90...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close above 1274.30 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1274.29...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1265.90
SVP - - none

minor - - 1246.04

MAJOR - - 1223.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

All key lines continue lower although the market itself looks like it's only pulling back before another rally... either way, the main model is short for now and so far so good...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The LT momentum like really does look toppy with a double top pattern moving lower...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Thursday, April 27th

"Take my advice — I'm not using it."

* * * Anonymous

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.10%

For the year 2017: +2.64%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 4/24/17

A close below 2330.46 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2330.46 would turn the BTIT to down... yes, same price for now...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now long the June SP on a 2360.80 stop, filled on the opening at 2364.50... for tomorrow, place a sell stop to go flat the June at 2330.40... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... also, place a sell stop to go short the June at 2330.40 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2340.50... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long 2364.50 as of 4/24/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close above 2383.00 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model Buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2378.00 and 2377.00, if filled place an exit stop at 2385.00... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A major VP at 2382.905...

The last trade at this writing is at 2382.00 in the June...

The main model is now short the June SP from 2394.50 as of Wednesday, April 26th... the high of the day is 2394.50... coincidence??? I don't think so...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2425.91 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2400.604 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2394.45
MAJOR - - 2382.905 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2382.00
minor - - 2377.98
minor - - 2365.72
minor - - 2345.28
minor - - 2329.99
MAJOR - - 2322.74 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 2314.69
MAJOR - - 2289.85 and must close above that price on Wednesday, May 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2186.65 (no typo error) and must close above that price on Monday, May 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for April below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

Quite an interesting reversal today... and the main model took a sell signal right at the very top tick of the day, the top tick today was also a VP price... coincidence?? I don't think so... the VP prices are not to be ignored...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

While the flat line itself looks a bit toppy, the momentum line still moves higher... so, we could see just a normal pull back before the rally resumes... we'll know soon enough...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum line is also moving higher, so at this point we're looking at a normal pause...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL as of 4/11/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 1248.201 would turn the BTIT to down...

The main model is now short the June gold from 1274.30 as of Tuesday, April 25th...

Today's last trade is at 1270.50...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close above 1274.30 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1274.29...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

NO VP PRICE ABOVE THE MARKET AT THIS TIME

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1270.50
SVP - - none

minor - - 1246.04

MAJOR - - 1223.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

While the momentum line is still moving lower, the flat line has now offered a possible bottoming pattern as of today, watch for a buy signal tomorrow...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The LT graph still looks toppy, but that could change tomorrow with a good rally... oh, and a buy signal...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Wednesday, April 26th

"Sitting quietly, doing nothing, the grass grows, and Spring comes by itself."

* * * Zen Proverb

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.10%

For the year 2017: +2.64%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 4/24/17

A close below 2328.75 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2328.75 would turn the BTIT to down... yes, same price for now...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now long the June SP on a 2360.80 stop, filled on the opening at 2364.50... for tomorrow, place a sell stop to go flat the June at 2328.70... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... also, place a sell stop to go short the June at 2328.70 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2338.80... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long 2364.50 as of 4/24/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close below 2383.00 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2378.00 and 2377.00, if filled place an exit stop at 2385.00... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A major VP at 2382.905...

The last trade at this writing is at 2385.00 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2345.20 as of Thursday, April 20th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2425.91 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2400.604 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2394.45
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2385.00
MAJOR - - 2382.905 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2377.98
minor - - 2365.72
minor - - 2345.28
minor - - 2329.99
MAJOR - - 2322.74 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 2314.69
MAJOR - - 2289.85 and must close above that price on Wednesday, May 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2186.65 (no typo error) and must close above that price on Monday, May 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for April below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

We now have a second day upside follow through in the MCI which clearly breaks the steep downtrend line... although there are no guarantees, one would have to suspect this market to continue higher despite any occasional nearby bumps in the road on the way... there is also a clear divergent pattern between the two most recent lows in the SPY and MCI graphs... while we had been focusing on the divergent tops, let's not ignore the bullish divergent bottom patterns between these two charts, the SPY shows a higher low while the MCI shows a lower low in the same time frame, this is bullish... and with both an active main model and BTIT buy signal, there appears a high likelihood that this market is destined for higher level right now......


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

The flat line graph also looks solidly bullish, the momentum line is clearly moving higher... this is a picture of a healthy market... for now, anyhow...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum line is also moving higher... maybe we could sit back and enjoy the ride...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL as of 4/11/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 1248.201 would turn the BTIT to down...

The main model is now short the June gold from 1274.30 as of Tuesday, April 25th...

Today's last trade is at 1264.90...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close above 1274.30 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1274.29...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

NO VP PRICE ABOVE THE MARKET AT THIS TIME

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1264.90
SVP - - none

minor - - 1246.04

MAJOR - - 1223.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

All key lines are moving lower, this is a bearish graph pattern... and the main model is also short this market as of today's confirmed VP sell signal...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The LT momentum line shows a clear double top pattern and is now moving downward... this market is likely going to continue lower for now... we're now short and we remain short this market...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Tuesday, April 25th

"Be happy, it drives people crazy."

* * * Benjamin Franklin

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.00%

For the year 2017: +2.54%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 4/24/17

A close below 2327.29 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2327.29 would turn the BTIT to down... yes, same price for now...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now long the June SP on a 2360.80 stop, filled on the opening at 2364.50... for tomorrow, place a sell stop to go flat the June at 2327.20... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... also, place a sell stop to go short the June at 2327.20 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2337.30... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long 2364.50 as of 4/24/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close below 2365.80 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2360.80 and 2359.80, if filled place an exit stop at 2367.80... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2365.72...

The last trade at this writing is at 2370.00 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2345.20 as of Thursday, April 20th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2425.91 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2400.604 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2394.45
MAJOR - - 2382.905 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2377.98
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2370.00
minor - - 2365.72
minor - - 2345.28
minor - - 2329.99
MAJOR - - 2322.74 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 2314.69
MAJOR - - 2289.85 and must close above that price on Wednesday, May 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2186.65 (no typo error) and must close above that price on Monday, May 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for April below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

The MCI shows what appears to be a solid move higher along with the SPY as confidence returns to this market... a higher MCI follow through tomorrow is really needed to be convincing and seal the MCI lows in place...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

While all key lines are moving higher, the best mover is the momentum line which is now clearly moving upward... this is construed as bullish...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

Excellent!!! The LT momentum line is also moving higher, this is very encouraging for the long position...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL as of 4/11/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 1254.71 would turn the BTIT to down...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1208.00 as of Wednesday, March 15th...

Today's last trade is at 1277.70...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close below 1274.30 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1274.29...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

NO VP PRICE ABOVE THE MARKET AT THIS TIME

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1277.70

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none

minor - - 1246.04

MAJOR - - 1223.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

The main model is still long this market, but notice the momentum line has turned downward and the market price is now also below the anti price... watch for a possible sell signal nearby...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The LT momentum line is also moving lower... this could be the end of the gold rally for now, be watchful for a sell signal possibly tomorrow...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Monday, April 24th

"Be happy, it drives people crazy."

* * * Benjamin Franklin

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.00%

For the year 2017: +2.54%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL AS OF 3/29/17

A close above 2360.74 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 2326.05 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you have no position for now... for tomorrow, place a buy stop to go long the June at 2360.80... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2350.70... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2326.00 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2336.10... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Flat as of 4/5/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 2345.30 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2340.30 and 2339.30, if filled place an exit stop at 2347.30... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2345.28...

The last trade at this writing is at 2347.50 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2345.20 as of Thursday, April 20th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2425.91 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2400.604 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2394.45
MAJOR - - 2382.905 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2377.98
minor - - 2365.72
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2347.50
minor - - 2345.28
minor - - 2329.99
MAJOR - - 2322.74 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 2314.69
MAJOR - - 2289.85 and must close above that price on Wednesday, May 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2186.65 (no typo error) and must close above that price on Monday, May 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for April below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

I made the two charts bigger so you can see the action more clearly...

We can see the SPY form a bullish pennant and the MCI possibly bottom here... a very nervous market, indeed...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

The first thing I noticed today is the flat line is holding its low and beginning to inch higher... and the momentum line is now moving upward, however minimally for now...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The momentum line is still inching higher, but just barely, good news for now...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL as of 4/11/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 1254.71 would turn the BTIT to down...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1208.00 as of Wednesday, March 15th...

Today's last trade is at 1286.40...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 1274.30 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1274.29...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1286.40

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none

minor - - 1246.04

MAJOR - - 1223.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

All key lines are still moving higher, no complains here... this flat line graph looks better today than it did yesterday...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The momentum line still marches higher... notice how the momentum line bottomed right at the market low... the LT momentum line is a highly reliable indicator and it's still moving higher, so why fret...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Friday, April 21st

"Be happy, it drives people crazy."

* * * Benjamin Franklin

Yes, we're back, and we had a great time, as usual!!!

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.00%

For the year 2017: +2.54%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL AS OF 3/29/17

A close above 2362.807 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 2325.02 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you have no position for now... for tomorrow, place a buy stop to go long the June at 2362.90... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2352.80... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2325.00 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2335.10... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Flat as of 4/5/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 2345.30 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2340.30 and 2339.30, if filled place an exit stop at 2347.30... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2345.28...

The last trade at this writing is at 2353.30 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2345.20 as of Thursday, April 20th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2425.91 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2400.604 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2394.45
MAJOR - - 2382.905 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2377.98
minor - - 2365.72
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2353.30
minor - - 2345.28
minor - - 2329.99
MAJOR - - 2322.74 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 2314.69
MAJOR - - 2289.85 and must close above that price on Wednesday, May 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2186.65 (no typo error) and must close above that price on Monday, May 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for April below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

I made the two charts bigger so you can see the action more clearly...

We can see that while the market itself held without much decline that the confidence index shows a serious loss of confidence in this market and moved below the previous swing low...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

We now see the flat line moving higher and the market price is above the anti price, this is encouraging for the long position... the momentum line still moves lower...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The momentum line turned upwards as of today... this is good news for the long position...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL as of 4/11/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 1254.71 would turn the BTIT to down...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1208.00 as of Wednesday, March 15th...

Today's last trade is at 1282.90...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 1274.30 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1274.29...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 1302.91 and must close below that price on Monday, April 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal... running out of time

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1282.90

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none

minor - - 1246.04

MAJOR - - 1223.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...
This flat line graph really does look toppy... I suspect the gold rally may be running out of steam... let's see how this plays out over the next few days...

THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The momentum line is now beginning to roll over... I suspect this market may have seen the best of the rally... at least for now...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Monday, April 10th

"Bitterness is like drinking poison and waiting for the other person to die."

* * * Steve Ostten

NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +.93%

For the year 2017: +2.47%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL AS OF 3/29/17

A close above 2368.81 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 2323.03 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you have no position for now... for tomorrow, place a buy stop to go long the June at 2368.90... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2358.80... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2323.00 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2333.10... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Flat as of 4/5/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close above 2359.00 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a long position with a close between 2364.00 and 2365.00, if filled place an exit stop at 2357.00... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2359.01...

The last trade at this writing is at 2351.70 in the June...

The main model is now short the June SP from 2359.10 as of Wednesday, April 5th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2423.301 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2391.97
MAJOR - - 2380.43 and must close below that price on Friday, April 21st to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2375.04 and must close below that price on Monday, April 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2369.26
minor - - 2359.01
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2351.70
minor - - 2345.28

MAJOR - - 2186.65 (no typo error) and must close above that price on Monday, May 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for April below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

I made the two charts bigger so you can see the action more clearly...

What I find interesting today in the MCI is that, while the SP itself is moving sideways, the MCI closed right at the high of the day, this suggests that there is more confidence in the upside to this market than the price itself reveals...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

It really does look a bit toppy now, the momentum line is barely moving higher to sideways... something has got to give...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum line is still moving lower, this market is getting heavy...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 3/10/17

A close above 1273.41 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the April gold from 1208.00 as of Wednesday, March 15th...

Today's last trade is at 1257.30...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 1257.30 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A floor at 1257.30...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 1302.91 and must close below that price on Monday, April 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 1275.65 and must close below that price on Friday, April 14th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 1274.79
MAJOR - - 1272.86 and must close below that price on Wednesday, April 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1265.98

minor - - 1265.41
SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1257.30
floor - - 1257.30
minor - - 1244.08
minor - - 1239.71
MAJOR - - 1231.51 and must close above that price on Thursday, April 27th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1225.58 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 26th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...
Okay, this graph is beginning to look toppy... the momentum lines continues its downward trek...

THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

We can see the momentum line begin to bend more sideways... the rally is losing steam...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Friday, April 7th

"Bitterness is like drinking poison and waiting for the other person to die."

* * * Steve Ostten

NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Sunday, April 9th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to clear the gathering cobwebs and recharge the worn out batteries, and also to celebrate my wife's birthday... I will return on Wednesday, April 19th, and then the evening briefings will resume again on Thursday evening, April 20th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... in return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop for 14 days... this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you some additional subscription time as a vacation bonus as my gift to you...

For subscribers who have PayPal automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... otherwise, if those automatic renewal invoices we not canceled, then you would receive the renewal invoice two weeks prematurely and without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, so this has to be done manually by me to insure your full calendar bonus credit...
You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +.93%

For the year 2017: +2.47%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL AS OF 3/29/17

A close above 2370.78 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 2322.02 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you have no position for now... for tomorrow, place a buy stop to go long the June at 2370.80... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2360.70... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2322.00 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2332.10... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Flat as of 4/5/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close above 2359.00 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a long position with a close between 2364.00 and 2365.00, if filled place an exit stop at 2357.00... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2359.01...

The last trade at this writing is at 2353.50 in the June...

The main model is now short the June SP from 2359.10 as of Wednesday, April 5th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2423.301 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2391.97
MAJOR - - 2380.43 and must close below that price on Friday, April 21st to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2375.04 and must close below that price on Monday, April 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2369.26
minor - - 2359.01
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2346.20
minor - - 2345.28

MAJOR - - 2186.65 (no typo error) and must close above that price on Monday, May 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for April below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

I made the two charts a little bigger so you can see the action more clearly...

If we look at the MCI graph below, we can see that there's what may be a minor top which looks very much like the previous lower top a few weeks ago between the 1/19/2017 and 2/19/2017 time frame...

Nothing significant here today, inside days for both charts...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

Really a sideways market, while the momentum line is turning higher again...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The momentum line continues lower...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 3/10/17

A close above 1315.701 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1264.901 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the April gold from 1208.00 as of Wednesday, March 15th...

Today's last trade is at 1254.20...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 1224.20 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1224.12...

APRIL GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 1448.501 and must close below that price on Thursday, April 27th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1360.43

MAJOR - - 1302.91 and must close below that price on Monday, April 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1254.20

minor - - 1224.12
minor - - 1214.49

MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

The flat line charts look toppy, but the market itself looks fine... let's give it some time...

THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

Definitely encouraging here...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Thursday, April 6th

"Today a man knocked on my door and asked for a small donation towards the local swimming pool, so I gave him a glass of water."

* * * Anonymous

NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Sunday, April 9th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to clear the gathering cobwebs and recharge the worn out batteries, and also to celebrate my wife's birthday... I will return on Wednesday, April 19th, and then the evening briefings will resume again on Thursday evening, April 20th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... in return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop for 14 days... this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you some additional subscription time as a vacation bonus as my gift to you...

For subscribers who have PayPal automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... otherwise, if those automatic renewal invoices we not canceled, then you would receive the renewal invoice two weeks prematurely and without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, so this has to be done manually by me to insure your full calendar bonus credit...
You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +.93%

For the year 2017: +2.47%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL AS OF 3/29/17

A close above 2372.67 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 2321.13 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you were stopped into a long position today and then stopped out after the FED announced their policy... you have no position for now... for tomorrow, place a buy stop to go long the June at 2372.70... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2362.60... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2321.10 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2331.20... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Flat as of 4/5/17 - - there are now 23 completed trades for a total gain of 536.00 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close above 2353.90 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you were stopped out at 2357.00 and are now flat this market... for Tuesday, enter a long position with a close between 2358.90 and 2359.90, if filled place an exit stop at 2351.90... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2353.91...

The last trade at this writing is at 2346.20 in the June...

The main model is now short the June SP from 2359.10 as of Wednesday, April 5th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2423.301 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2391.97
MAJOR - - 2380.43 and must close below that price on Friday, April 21st to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2375.04 and must close below that price on Monday, April 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2369.26
minor - - 2359.01
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2346.20
minor - - 2345.28

MAJOR - - 2186.65 (no typo error) and must close above that price on Monday, May 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for April below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

I made the two charts a little bigger so you can see the action more clearly...

If we look at the MCI graph below, we can see that there's what may be a minor top which looks very much like the previous lower top a few weeks ago between the 1/19/2017 and 2/19/2017 time frame...

Yesterday, the MCI shows a better likelihood of a SP rally tomorrow than not... well, we did have that rally but it faded and failed in the final hour... today, we can see a clear divergence between the SPY chart and the MCI chart... this now suggests lower markets tomorrow... in that same divergent pattern, we can also see the SPY trade above the previous swing high while the MCI did not... this is a bearish divergence and further suggests a downward move for these market tomorrow... I made these two graphs large enough so you could see the subtle day to day differences... the MCI is a sensitive instrument and highly reliable, but it takes a learning curve to begin appreciating it more fully...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

This flat line graph is beginning to look toppy... again... notice the momentum line is just barely inching higher, it's actually moving more sideways...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum line continues lower... once it turned downward, it never looked back...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 3/10/17

A close above 1315.701 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1264.901 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the April gold from 1208.00 as of Wednesday, March 15th...

Today's last trade is at 1258.10...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close below 1224.20 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1224.12...

APRIL GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 1448.501 and must close below that price on Thursday, April 27th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1360.43

MAJOR - - 1302.91 and must close below that price on Monday, April 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1258.10

minor - - 1224.12
minor - - 1214.49

MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

The flat line graph does look toppy, but the market itself looks better than this graph... there was a very nice market recovery in gold today...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The encouraging thing is that the momentum line still move higher...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading