For Monday, April 3rd

Universal Law Of Physical Surfaces: The chances of an open-faced jelly sandwich landing face down on a floor are directly correlated to the newness and cost of the carpet or rug.

* * * Albert Einstein

 

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.86%

For the year 2017: +3.40%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL AS OF 3/29/17

A close above 2374.01 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 2318.44 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you have no position for now... for tomorrow, place a buy stop to go long the June at 2374.10... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2364.00... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2318.40 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2328.50... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Short as of 3/21/17 - - there are now 22 completed trades for a total gain of 546.10 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close above 2359.00 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you now long this market on the close at 2364.00... for Monday, place an exit stop to go flat at 2357.00... if not stopped out, stay long or take another long position with a close between 2364.00 and 2365.00, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2359.01...

The last trade at this writing is at 2358.70 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2359.00 as of Thursday, March 30th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2423.301 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2391.97
MAJOR - - 2375.04 and must close below that price on Monday, April 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2359.01
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2358.70
minor - - 2353.91
minor - - 2245.28
MAJOR - - 2339.81 and must close above that price on Monday, April 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2186.65 and must close above that price on Monday, May 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for March below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for March below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

I made the two charts a little bigger so you can see the action more clearly...

If we look at the MCI graph below, we can see that there's what may be a minor top which looks very much like the previous lower top a few weeks ago between the 1/19/2017 and 2/19/2017 time frame... the main model was taken short right into today's close and we can see a possible topping action in this MCI graph...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

The flat line indicator is now looking a bit toppy, the flat line itself has turned lower as of today...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The momentum line which was slowing its decline yesterday began its downward move in full again today...

The APRIL Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 3/10/17

A close above 1315.701 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1264.901 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the April gold from 1208.00 as of Wednesday, March 15th...

Today's last trade is at 1245.90...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 1224.20 in the April Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1224.12...

APRIL GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 1448.501 and must close below that price on Thursday, April 27th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1360.43

SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1245.90

minor - - 1224.12
minor - - 1214.49

MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...
This flat line graph is beginning to appear suspect... the momentum line is slowing its rise and the flat line itself has fallen sharply...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

This LT momentum graph is beginning to look bearish once again, the momentum line is again moving downward... well, it didn't last long, did it???

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Friday, March 31st

Universal Law Of Physical Surfaces: The chances of an open-faced jelly sandwich landing face down on a floor are directly correlated to the newness and cost of the carpet or rug.

* * * Albert Einstein

NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Sunday, April 9th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to clear the gathering cobwebs and recharge the worn out batteries, and also to celebrate my wife's birthday... I will return on Wednesday, April 19th, and then the evening briefings will resume again on Thursday evening, April 20th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... in return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop for 14 days... this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you some additional subscription time as a vacation bonus as my gift to you...

For subscribers who have PayPal automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... otherwise, if those automatic renewal invoices we not canceled, then you would receive the renewal invoice two weeks prematurely and without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, so this has to be done manually by me to insure your full calendar bonus credit...

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.86%

For the year 2017: +3.40%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL AS OF 3/29/17

A close above 2376.86 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 2317.95 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you have no position for now... for tomorrow, place a buy stop to go long the June at 2376.90... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2366.80... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2317.90 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2328.00... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Short as of 3/21/17 - - there are now 22 completed trades for a total gain of 546.10 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 2359.10 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you now long this market on the close at 2364.00, we'll verify this closing later this evening to be sure of the position... place an exit stop to go flat at 2357.00... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2359.01...

The last trade at this writing is at 2364.00 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2359.00 as of Thursday, March 30th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2423.301 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2391.97
MAJOR - - 2375.04 and must close below that price on Monday, April 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2364.00
minor - - 2359.01
minor - - 2353.91
minor - - 2350.17
minor - - 2245.28
minor - - 2344.15
MAJOR - - 2339.81 and must close above that price on Monday, April 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2332.14 and must close above that price on Tuesday, April 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2322.66 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 5th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2186.65 and must close above that price on Monday, May 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for March below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for March below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

I made the two charts a little bigger so you can see the action more clearly... three days ago we had a double bottom formation in the MCI and it has been moving higher ever since... today's continued upside follow through is good confirmation of the current buy main model signal, this market now has more upside room to run...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

All key lines are moving higher AND the momentum line is also moving upward from a level where previous market bottoms have occurred, this is a very encouraging flat line graph...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The momentum line is still moving lower but is now bending at the tip...

The APRIL Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 3/10/17

A close above 1315.701 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1264.901 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the April gold from 1208.00 as of Wednesday, March 15th...

Today's last trade is at 1243.40...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 1224.20 in the April Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1224.12...

APRIL GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 1448.501 and must close below that price on Thursday, April 27th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1360.43

SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1243.40

minor - - 1224.12
minor - - 1214.49

MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

I've been saying for days that this flat line graph looks toppy... the market did pull back today, and very frankly, not to spook you, but there is absolutely nothing wrong with taking your profits, or some of it, early when this market looks as toppy as it has been doing... who knows, the main model is still long this market, but a pull back almost seems obvious...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

Lo and behold, the LT momentum graph today shows the momentum line turning downward as of today... caution in this market is strongly advised... we have no sell signal, but we have signs of stress cracks at this altitude for this market...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Thursday, March 30th

Universal Law Of Coffee: As soon as you sit down to a cup of hot coffee, your boss will ask you to do something which will last until the coffee is cold.

* * * Albert Einstein

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.86%

For the year 2017: +3.40%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

AS PER THE MORNING BTIT UPDATE, THE MARKET CLOSED YESTERDAY BELOW THE NEUTRAL PRICE AFTER TRADING ABOVE IT MUCH OF THE DAY, THIS LOWER CLOSE OCCURRED AFTER THE EVENING BRIEFING WAS ALREADY SENT OUT, SO THE BTIT WAS STILL SHORT, THE OPTIMIZED BTIT TRADER IS NOW FLAT THIS POSITION SINCE THE EXIT STOP WAS HIT...

OF COURSE, TODAY THE MARKET TURNED THE BTIT TO NEUTRAL ANYHOW...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL AS OF 3/29/17

A close above 2379.45 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 2317.66 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you have no position for now... for tomorrow, place a buy stop to go long the June at 2379.50... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2369.40... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2317.60 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2327.70... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Short as of 3/21/17 - - there are now 22 completed trades for a total gain of 546.10 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:
 
For Thursday, a close above 2359.00 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...  be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...
For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market...  enter a new long position with a close between 2364.00 and 2365.00...  if filled, then place an exit stop to go flat at 2357.00...  please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...  of course, any questions, please just ask...
 
The Hoban Rule Performance History:
 
The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points...  this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals...  if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...
 
 
 
Rationale:  A VP at 2353.91...  
 
The last trade at this writing is at 2357.00 in the June...  
 
The main model is now short the June SP from 2359.10 as of Wednesday, March 29th...  

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2423.301 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2391.97
MAJOR - - 2375.04 and must close below that price on Monday, April 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2359.01
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2357.50
minor - - 2353.91
minor - - 2350.17
minor - - 2245.28
minor - - 2344.15
MAJOR - - 2339.81 and must close above that price on Monday, April 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2332.14 and must close above that price on Tuesday, April 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2322.66 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 5th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2186.65 and must close above that price on Monday, May 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for March below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for March below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

We see what looks like a double bottom formation above a large gap area below the MCI bars... yesterday, this suggested an upside follow through for today which we did have...

No real movement today in the MCI, still inching higher...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

All key lines are now moving higher... the market price is now above the anti price AND the momentum line is also moving higher...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

Still inching downward as of today...

The APRIL Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 3/10/17

A close above 1315.701 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1264.901 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the April gold from 1208.00 as of Wednesday, March 15th...

Today's last trade is at 1252.10...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close below 1224.20 in the April Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1224.12...

APRIL GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 1448.501 and must close below that price on Thursday, April 27th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1360.43

SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1252.10

minor - - 1224.12
minor - - 1214.49

MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

This flat line graph definitely looks toppy, but the momentum line continues higher without hesitation...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

Still looking bullish...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Wednesday, March 29th

Universal Law Of Coffee: As soon as you sit down to a cup of hot coffee, your boss will ask you to do something which will last until the coffee is cold.

* * * Albert Einstein

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.86%

For the year 2017: +3.40%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

FOR THE BTIT TRADERS, THE MARKET CLOSED BELOW THE NEUTRAL PRICE AFTER TRADING ABOVE IT MUCH OF THE DAY, THIS LOWER CLOSE OCCURRED AFTER THE EVENING BRIEFING WAS ALREADY SENT OUT, SO THE BTIT IS STILL SHORT, THE OPTIMIZED BTIT TRADER IS NOW FLAT THIS POSITION SINCE THE EXIT STOP WAS HIT...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN AS OF 3/21/17

A close above 2381.62 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 2355.35 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now stopped out at 2355.10 stop and remain flat for now, you took a better than 4 point profit on this closed short position... for tomorrow, place a buy stop to go long the June at 2381.70... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2371.60... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2317.90 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2328.00... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Flat as of 3/28/17 - - there are now 22 completed trades for a total gain of 548.40 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close below 2350.20 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... enter a new short position with a close between 2345.20 and 2344.20... if filled, then place an exit stop to go flat at 2352.20... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2350.17...

The last trade at this writing is at 2353.30 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2339.80 as of Tuesday, March 28th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2423.301 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2391.97
MAJOR - - 2375.04 and must close below that price on Monday, April 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2359.01
minor - - 2353.91
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2353.30
minor - - 2350.17
minor - - 2245.28
minor - - 2344.15
MAJOR - - 2339.81 and must close above that price on Monday, April 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2332.14 and must close above that price on Tuesday, April 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 2330.93
MAJOR - - 2322.66 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 5th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2320.96 and must close above that price on Tuesday, April 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2186.65 and must close above that price on Monday, May 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for March below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for March below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE NEW MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

Today, we see what looks like a double bottom formation above a large gap area below the MCI bars... yesterday, this suggested an upside follow through for today which we did have...

We can see confidence return to the market...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

The key lines are turning higher, the market price is just barely below the anti price today... a follow through rally tomorrow and this market should be good to go...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The momentum line continues lower...

The APRIL Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 3/10/17

A close above 1315.701 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1264.901 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the April gold from 1208.00 as of Wednesday, March 15th...

Today's last trade is at 1250.80...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close below 1224.20 in the April Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1224.12...

APRIL GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 1448.501 and must close below that price on Thursday, April 27th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1360.43

SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1250.80

minor - - 1224.12
minor - - 1214.49

MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

The momentum line shows a market trending higher, but the flat line itself looks rather toppy right now...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

Still looking bullish...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Tuesday, March 28th

Universal Law Of Mechanical Repair: After your hands become coated with grease, your nose will begin to itch and you'll have to pee.

* * * Albert Einstein

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +3.17%

For the year 2017: +4.71%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN AS OF 3/21/17

A close above 2383.44 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 2353.005 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now short this market from 2359.40... for tomorrow, place a buy stop to go flat the June at 2355.10... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a buy stop to go long the June at 2383.50 and if filled place a sell stop to go flat at 2373.40... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there may be another opportunity next week for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Short as of 3/21/17 - - there are now 21 completed trades for a total gain of 541.90 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close above 2339.80 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... enter a new long position with a close between 2344.80 and 2345.80... if filled, then place an exit stop to go flat at 2337.80... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A major VP at 2339.81...

The last trade at this writing is at 2338.50 in the June...

The main model is now short the June SP from 2339.90 as of Monday, March 27th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - none
minor - - 2353.91
minor - - 2350.17
minor - - 2245.28
minor - - 2344.15
MAJOR - - 2339.81 and must close above that price on Monday, April 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2338.50
MAJOR - - 2332.14 and must close above that price on Tuesday, April 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 2330.93
MAJOR - - 2322.66 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 5th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2320.96 and must close above that price on Tuesday, April 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2186.65 and must close above that price on Monday, May 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for March below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for March below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

INTRODUCING THE NEW MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

Today, we see what looks like a double bottom formation above a large gap area below the MCI bars... this would suggest an upside follow through for tomorrow...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

Drifting sideways, no direction...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The momentum line continues lower...

The APRIL Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 3/10/17

A close above 1315.701 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1264.901 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the April gold from 1208.00 as of Wednesday, March 15th...

Today's last trade is at 1254.50...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close below 1224.20 in the April Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1224.12...

APRIL GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 1448.501 and must close below that price on Thursday, April 27th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1360.43

SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1254.50

minor - - 1224.12
minor - - 1214.49

MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

The trend is higher, but the flat line itself suggests this market is now overbought and needs a rest...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

Still looking bullish...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Monday, March 27th

Universal Law Of Biomechanics: The severity of the itch is inversely proportional to the reach.

* * * Albert Einstein

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +3.17%

For the year 2017: +4.71%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

AFTER NUMEROUS EMAILS FROM SUBSCRIBERS AND MY OWN CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE MARKET ACTION AFTER THE MARKET FINALLY SETTLED DOWN, IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN MODEL WAS LONG AT YESTERDAY'S CLOSE...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN AS OF 3/21/17

A close above 2384.95 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 2356.33 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now short this market from 2359.40... for tomorrow, place a buy stop to go flat the June at 2358.40... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a buy stop to go long the June at 2385.00 and if filled place a sell stop to go flat at 2374.90... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there may be another opportunity next week for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Short as of 3/21/17 - - there are now 21 completed trades for a total gain of 541.90 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 2344.10 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... enter a new long position with a close between 2349.10 and 2350.10... if filled, then place an exit stop to go flat at 2342.10... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2344.15...

The last trade at this writing is at 2344.50 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2339.80 as of Thursday, March 23rd...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2430.03 and must close below that price on Monday, April 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2416.13 and must close below that price on Monday, May 8th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2402.26
MAJOR - - 2401.409 and must close below that price on Thursday, April 27th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2392.901
minor - - 2382.55
minor - - 2353.91
minor - - 2350.17
minor - - 2245.28
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2344.50
minor - - 2344.15
MAJOR - - 2339.81 and must close above that price on Monday, April 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2332.14 and must close above that price on Tuesday, April 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 2330.93
MAJOR - - 2322.66 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 5th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2320.96 and must close above that price on Tuesday, April 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for March below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for March below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

The NT (Near Term) indicator

Absolutely no movement at all here today...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

Possible bottoming action in the flat line where previous bottoms have occurred...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum line is still moving lower and is still in the overbought zone...

The APRIL Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 3/10/17

A close above 1315.701 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1264.901 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the April gold from 1208.00 as of Wednesday, March 15th...

Today's last trade is at 1244.90...

What a boring market...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 1224.20 in the April Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1224.12...

APRIL GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 1448.501 and must close below that price on Thursday, April 27th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1360.43

SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1244.90

minor - - 1224.12
minor - - 1214.49

MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...
A bit toppy looking, but the momentum line still works higher...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

This LT graph still looks positive...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Friday, March 24th

Universal Law Of Biomechanics: The severity of the itch is inversely proportional to the reach.

* * * Albert Einstein

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +3.17%

For the year 2017: +4.71%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

VERY FRANKLY, IT'S NOT CLEAR AT THIS MOMENT WHETHER THE MAIN MODEL IS LONG OR SHORT SINCE THERE ARE SO MANY VP POINTS RIGHT WHERE THE MARKET IS NOW TRADING AT THE MARKET HASN'T SETTLED AT THIS TIME... BUT, IT ALSO ISN'T CRITICAL SINCE YOU'RE ALSO WATCHING AND YOU ALSO KNOW THE VP POINTS... ONCE IT BECOMES CLEAR AGAIN, THEN I'LL MAKE THAT ADJUSTMENT... THIS HAPPENS ON A RARE OCCASION...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN AS OF 3/21/17

A close above 2386.22 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 2378.44 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now short this market from 2359.40... for tomorrow, place a buy stop to go flat the June at 2380.50... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a buy stop to go long the June at 2386.30 and if filled place a sell stop to go flat at 2376.20... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there may be another opportunity next week for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Short as of 3/21/17 - - there are now 21 completed trades for a total gain of 541.90 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close above 2344.10 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... enter a new long position with a close between 2349.10 and 2350.10... if filled, then place an exit stop to go flat at 2342.10... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2344.15...

The last trade at this writing is at 2340.20 in the June...

The main model is now short the June SP from 2378.30 as of Friday, March 17th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2430.03 and must close below that price on Monday, April 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2416.13 and must close below that price on Monday, May 8th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2402.26
MAJOR - - 2401.409 and must close below that price on Thursday, April 27th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2392.901
minor - - 2382.55
minor - - 2353.91
minor - - 2350.17
minor - - 2245.28
minor - - 2344.15
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2340.20
MAJOR - - 2339.81 and must close above that price on Monday, April 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2332.14 and must close above that price on Tuesday, April 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2322.66 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 5th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2186.65 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for March below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for March below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

The NT (Near Term) indicator

Another modest uptick today, but nothing meaningful yet... the market is oversold but also not showing any recovery strength today...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

A weak bounce today on yesterday's modest uptick, nothing impressive here yet... say tuned...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum line still working itself lower... and still in overbought territory...

The APRIL Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 3/10/17

A close above 1315.701 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1264.901 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the April gold from 1208.00 as of Wednesday, March 15th...

Today's last trade is at 1246.50...

What a boring market...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 1224.20 in the April Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1224.12...

APRIL GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 1448.501 and must close below that price on Thursday, April 27th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1360.43

SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1246.50

minor - - 1224.12
minor - - 1214.49

MAJOR - - 1193.66 and must close above that price on Friday, March 24th to confirm a new main model buy signal... the main model is already long this market

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

This market is again beginning to look toppy, and yet the momentum line is still working higher from a deeply oversold level... this suggests we could see a pull back in this market at any time without a break in the current uptrend...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The LT momentum line is still moving higher while not having been in oversold territory for many weeks... this seems longer term bullish...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Thursday, March 23rd

Universal Law Of Biomechanics: The severity of the itch is inversely proportional to the reach.

* * * Albert Einstein

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +3.17%

For the year 2017: +4.71%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN AS OF 3/21/17

A close above 2384.24 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 2381.17 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now short this market from 2359.40... for tomorrow, place a buy stop to go flat the June at 2383.20... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a buy stop to go long the June at 2384.30 and if filled place a sell stop to go flat at 2374.20... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there may be another opportunity next week for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Short as of 3/21/17 - - there are now 21 completed trades for a total gain of 541.90 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close above 2344.10 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... enter a new long position with a close between 2349.10 and 2350.10... if filled, then place an exit stop to go flat at 2342.10... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2344.15...

The last trade at this writing is at 2342.50 in the June...

The main model is now short the June SP from 2378.30 as of Friday, March 17th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2418.77 and must close below that price on Wednesday, April 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2401.04
MAJOR - - 2386.21 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2378.22
minor - - 2353.91
minor - - 2350.17
minor - - 2245.28
minor - - 2344.15
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2342.50
MAJOR - - 2339.81 and must close above that price on Monday, April 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2332.14 and must close above that price on Tuesday, April 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2322.66 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 5th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2186.65 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for March below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for March below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

The NT (Near Term) indicator

A modest uptick today...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

We have a bottoming up spike in the flat line today, meanwhile the momentum line continues lower... nearing a bottom??? We'll know better tomorrow...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum line continues lower and is still in the overbought zone... there could be plenty more downside to go based on this momentum line... but, we'll see... meanwhile, we're staying short this market...

The APRIL Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 3/10/17

A close above 1315.701 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1264.901 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the April gold from 1208.00 as of Wednesday, March 15th...

Today's last trade is at 1247.80...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close below 1224.20 in the April Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1224.12...

APRIL GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 1448.501 and must close below that price on Thursday, April 27th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1360.43

SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1247.40

minor - - 1224.12
minor - - 1214.49
MAJOR - - 1207.91 and must close above that price on Thursday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal... the main model is already long this market
MAJOR - - 1193.66 and must close above that price on Friday, March 24th to confirm a new main model buy signal... the main model is already long this market

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

All key lines are still moving higher, but look at the flat line itself... now entering an overstretched level, we could see a pull back here for gold but not a sell signal...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

Still moving higher, no problem here...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Wednesday, March 22nd

Universal Law Of The Theater: The people whose seats are the furthest from the aisle always arrive last.

* * * Albert Einstein

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +3.17%

For the year 2017: +4.71%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN AS OF 3/21/17

A close above 2385.74 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 2383.61 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now short this market from 2359.40... for tomorrow, place a buy stop to go flat the June at 2385.70... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a buy stop to go long the June at 2385.80 and if filled place a sell stop to go flat at 2375.70... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there may be another opportunity next week for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Short as of 3/21/17 - - there are now 21 completed trades for a total gain of 541.90 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close above 2344.10 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... enter a new long position with a close between 2349.10 and 2350.10... if filled, then place an exit stop to go flat at 2342.10... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2344.15...

The last trade at this writing is at 2342.00 in the June...

The main model is now short the June SP from 2378.30 as of Friday, March 17th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2418.77 and must close below that price on Wednesday, April 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2401.04
MAJOR - - 2386.21 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2378.22
minor - - 2350.17
minor - - 2245.28
minor - - 2344.15
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2342.00

MAJOR - - 2332.14 and must close above that price on Tuesday, April 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2322.66 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 5th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2186.65 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for March below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for March below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

The NT (Near Term) indicator

Yesterday's minimal buy spike turned into a deeper decline today...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

All key lines are moving lower... the main model is staying short...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum line continues lower and is still in the overbought zone... there could be plenty more downside to go based on this momentum line... but, we'll see... meanwhile, we're staying short this market...

The APRIL Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 3/10/17

A close above 1315.701 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1264.901 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the April gold from 1208.00 as of Wednesday, March 15th...

Today's last trade is at 1244.70...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close below 1224.20 in the April Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1224.12...

APRIL GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 1448.501 and must close below that price on Thursday, April 27th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1360.43

SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1244.70

minor - - 1224.12
minor - - 1214.49
MAJOR - - 1207.91 and must close above that price on Thursday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal... the main model is already long this market
MAJOR - - 1193.66 and must close above that price on Friday, March 24th to confirm a new main model buy signal... the main model is already long this market

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

All key lines continue higher, the flat line is beginning to approach an overbought level, but not quite yet... the momentum line is still in the oversold zone, so this market still may well have plenty of upside to move before this rally is over...

THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

This is a bullish LT momentum graph... a rare sight for the gold market... but miracles do happen... LOL!!!

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Tuesday, March 21st

Universal Law Of The Theater: The people whose seats are the furthest from the aisle always arrive last.

* * * Albert Einstein

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +3.17%

For the year 2017: +4.71%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL AS OF 3/10/17

A close above 2387.92 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 2359.48 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, place a buy stop to go long the June at 2388.00... if filled place an exit stop to go flat at 2377.90... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2359.40 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2369.50... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there may be another opportunity next week for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Flat as of 3/10/17 - - there are now 21 completed trades for a total gain of 541.90 SP points...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close above 2378.20 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... enter a new long position with a close between 2373.20 and 2372.20... if filled, then place an exit stop to go flat at 2380.20... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2378.22...

The last trade at this writing is at 2370.00 in the June...

The main model is now short the June SP from 2378.30 as of Friday, March 17th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2418.77 and must close below that price on Wednesday, April 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2401.04
MAJOR - - 2386.21 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2378.22
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2370.00
minor - - 2350.17
minor - - 2245.28
minor - - 2344.15
MAJOR - - 2332.14 and must close above that price on Tuesday, April 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2322.66 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 5th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2186.65 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for March below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for March below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

The NT (Near Term) indicator

Now oversold with a very minimal buy spike today...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

Here's a market drifting sideways with a descending momentum line...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum line continues downward...

The APRIL Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 3/10/17

A close above 1315.701 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1264.901 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the April gold from 1208.00 as of Wednesday, March 15th...

Today's last trade is at 1234.10...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close below 1224.20 in the April Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1224.12...

APRIL GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 1448.501 and must close below that price on Thursday, April 27th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1360.43

SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1234.10

minor - - 1224.12
minor - - 1214.49
MAJOR - - 1207.91 and must close above that price on Thursday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1193.66 and must close above that price on Friday, March 24th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

This is a good looking flat line chart... all key lines are moving higher and the momentum line is also moving higher... what's not to like???


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The momentum line is moving higher, good news for tomorrow...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading