For Monday, August 1st

"An ounce of practice is worth a pound of theory."

* * * John Jacob Astor

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 2163.50 in the SEPTEMBER contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a short position with a close between 2157.50 and 2158.50 only... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2165.50... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: The entry price of 2163.50 remains the VP for this new trade position... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The last trade at this writing is at 2170.50 in the September...

The main model is now long the September SP from 2163.50 as of Thursday, July 28th...

This market has not had a pull back in some time... for this market to continue higher without a pull back is rare, but it could happen... if this recent 3 week sideways pattern was the pull back, then this market could be poised for a significant rally from current levels... but, that remains to be seen... we're long this market, so one can hope!!!

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SEPTEMBER VP PRICES

SVP - - 2309.57

MAJOR - - 2174.09 and must close below that price on Monday, October 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2172.45 and must close below that price on Wednesday, September 14th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2170.50

SVP - - 2137.39

MAJOR - - 2121.55 and must close below that price on Wednesday, August 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2120.12

minor - - 2118.24

minor - - 2105.703

minor - - 2071.31

SVP - - 2068.23

SVP - - 2062.39

minor - - 2035.12

MAJOR - - 2002.01 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 17th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - 1961.301

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP as of 7/8/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2156.03 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2046.85 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is primarily a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, although this format can easily be used as a trading strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 2117.10 as of 7/8/16 - - there are 10 completed trades for a total gain of 241.10 SP points...

For the BTIT strategy, attention to the market action is still required, treating the signal price the same as a VP signal price... attempting this strategy on a close only basis has not proven successful...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of 3/31/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for July above 2133.70 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for July below 2037.30 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned from down to neutral at the end of March with a monthly close above 2028.30...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself... also, look at the 1/3 Rule for easy position entry with much less risk...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)
Again today, no meaningful movement at all...
image

IF YOU PREFER A LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY WITHOUT THE FREQUENT VP INS AND OUTS AND ALL THAT MID DAY MARKET NOISE, THEN YOU MAY WELL CONSIDER THE BTIT INDICATOR OR THE LT INDICATOR TRADING METHOD FOR LONGER TERM POSITION TRADING... CHECK THE TUTORIAL BELOW TO LEARN HOW TO USE THESE METHODS EFFECTIVELY...

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Modest upticks in the blue and purple lines, the blue line is again above the key red line, this is helpful... AND the key red line has again turned higher as of today, however minimally for now...

image (1)
image (2)

There will be a temporary suspension in preparing individual LT graphs on request since the Website that had been providing me with the historic price date for your requests has gone down, probably down for routine repair, there is no indication of how long the site will remain down, hopefully not for long... therefore, for now, I'm unable to put together individual LT graphs on request... I'm checking regularly to see when it reopens...

The AUGUST Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 6/13/16

A close below 1308.201 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...

A close below 1208.21 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

The main model is now long the August gold from 1323.40 as of Wednesday, July 27th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1350.40...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 1323.50 in the August Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1323.48...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - 1419.15 and must close below that price on Thursday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1371.36

MAJOR - - 1351.69 and must close below that price on Monday, August 8th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1350.40

minor - - 1323.48

minor - - 1302.51

MAJOR - - 1273.802 and must close above that price on Monday, August 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1244.53

MAJOR - - 1190.56 and must close above that price on Friday, September 30th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

All line moving higher nicely for now, including the key red line which has now been moving higher for two day consecutively... a bull market in gold??? Do wonders ever cease???

image (3)
image (4)

The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

TRADING THE LONG TERM (LT) INDICATOR

Notice that the red oscillating line tops and bottoms along with longer term market turns... therefore, you could easily take a longer term short position when the red line turns downward from a high peak... and you could also therefore take a longer term long position when the red line turns upward from a low trough...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, July 29th

"An ounce of practice is worth a pound of theory."

* * * John Jacob Astor

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 2163.50 in the SEPTEMBER contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a short position with a close between 2157.50 and 2158.50 only... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2165.50... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: The entry price of 2163.50 remains the VP for this new trade position... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The last trade at this writing is at 2165.00 in the September...

The main model is now long the September SP from 2163.50 as of Thursday, July 28th...

For the past several days, this market has traded down below the BTIT trigger price of 2156.03 and then rallied, a close below that price would turn the BTIT from an up position to a neutral position... consecutive rallies off that key trigger price is a good rejection of that lower level, very clearly the BTIT trigger price is surely not arbitrary in any way...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SEPTEMBER VP PRICES

SVP - - 2309.57

MAJOR - - 2174.09 and must close below that price on Monday, October 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2165.00

SVP - - 2137.39

MAJOR - - 2121.55 and must close below that price on Wednesday, August 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2120.12

minor - - 2118.24

minor - - 2105.703

minor - - 2071.31

SVP - - 2068.23

SVP - - 2062.39

minor - - 2035.12

MAJOR - - 2002.01 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 17th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - 1961.301

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP as of 7/8/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2156.03 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2046.85 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is primarily a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, although this format can easily be used as a trading strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 2117.10 as of 7/8/16 - - there are 10 completed trades for a total gain of 241.10 SP points...

For the BTIT strategy, attention to the market action is still required, treating the signal price the same as a VP signal price... attempting this strategy on a close only basis has not proven successful...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of 3/31/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for July above 2133.70 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for July below 2037.30 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned from down to neutral at the end of March with a monthly close above 2028.30...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself... also, look at the 1/3 Rule for easy position entry with much less risk...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)
Not really much movement in the NT indicator for today...
image

IF YOU PREFER A LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY WITHOUT THE FREQUENT VP INS AND OUTS AND ALL THAT MID DAY MARKET NOISE, THEN YOU MAY WELL CONSIDER THE BTIT INDICATOR OR THE LT INDICATOR TRADING METHOD FOR LONGER TERM POSITION TRADING... CHECK THE TUTORIAL BELOW TO LEARN HOW TO USE THESE METHODS EFFECTIVELY...

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Minimal upticks today in the blue and purple lines, and the key red line is exactly flat today, no movement at all...

image (1)
image (2)

There will be a temporary suspension in preparing individual LT graphs on request since the Website that had been providing me with the historic price date for your requests has gone down, probably down for routine repair, there is no indication of how long the site will remain down, hopefully not for long... therefore, for now, I'm unable to put together individual LT graphs on request... I'm checking regularly to see when it reopens...

The AUGUST Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 6/13/16

A close below 1308.201 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...

A close below 1208.21 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

The main model is now long the August gold from 1323.40 as of Wednesday, July 27th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1333.50...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 1323.50 in the August Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1323.48...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - 1419.15 and must close below that price on Thursday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1371.36

MAJOR - - 1351.69 and must close below that price on Monday, August 8th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1333.50

minor - - 1323.48

minor - - 1302.51

MAJOR - - 1273.802 and must close above that price on Monday, August 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1244.53

MAJOR - - 1190.56 and must close above that price on Friday, September 30th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Nice buy spikes here today... actually, it's encouraging considering how sluggish this market has been for so long...

image (3)
image (4)

The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

TRADING THE LONG TERM (LT) INDICATOR

Notice that the red oscillating line tops and bottoms along with longer term market turns... therefore, you could easily take a longer term short position when the red line turns downward from a high peak... and you could also therefore take a longer term long position when the red line turns upward from a low trough...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Thursday, July 28th

"The only person who never makes a mistake is the person who never does anything."

* * * Anonymous

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close above 2163.50 in the SEPTEMBER contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a long position with a close between 2168.50 and 2169.50 only... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2161.50... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: The entry price of 2163.50 is now considered the VP for this new trade position... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The last trade at this writing is at 2160.20 in the September...

The main model is now short the September SP from 2163.40 as of Tuesday, July 26th...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SEPTEMBER VP PRICES

SVP - - 2309.57

MAJOR - - 2174.09 and must close below that price on Monday, October 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2172.45 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 27th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2160.20

SVP - - 2137.39

MAJOR - - 2121.55 and must close below that price on Wednesday, August 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2120.12

minor - - 2118.24

minor - - 2105.703

minor - - 2071.31

SVP - - 2068.23

SVP - - 2062.39

minor - - 2035.12

MAJOR - - 2002.01 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 17th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - 1961.301

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP as of 7/8/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2156.03 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2046.85 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is primarily a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, although this format can easily be used as a trading strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 2117.10 as of 7/8/16 - - there are 10 completed trades for a total gain of 241.10 SP points...

For the BTIT strategy, attention to the market action is still required, treating the signal price the same as a VP signal price... attempting this strategy on a close only basis has not proven successful...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of 3/31/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for July above 2133.70 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for July below 2037.30 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned from down to neutral at the end of March with a monthly close above 2028.30...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself... also, look at the 1/3 Rule for easy position entry with much less risk...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)
A modest down tick today... further downside follow through tomorrow would be nice...
image

IF YOU PREFER A LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY WITHOUT THE FREQUENT VP INS AND OUTS AND ALL THAT MID DAY MARKET NOISE, THEN YOU MAY WELL CONSIDER THE BTIT INDICATOR OR THE LT INDICATOR TRADING METHOD FOR LONGER TERM POSITION TRADING... CHECK THE TUTORIAL BELOW TO LEARN HOW TO USE THESE METHODS EFFECTIVELY...

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Looking more and more toppy now, AND the key red line has actually turned exactly one tick lower today although you may not be able to detect this ever so minimal turn... nonetheless, it did turn downward today and it appears this down trend may actually continue... the blue line is now south of the red line, this is encouraging...

image (1)
image (2)

There will be a temporary suspension in preparing individual LT graphs on request since the Website that had been providing me with the historic price date for your requests has gone down, probably down for routine repair, there is no indication of how long the site will remain down, hopefully not for long... therefore, for now, I'm unable to put together individual LT graphs on request... I'm checking regularly to see when it reopens...

The AUGUST Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 6/13/16

A close below 1308.201 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...

A close below 1208.21 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

The main model is now long the August gold from 1323.40 as of Wednesday, July 27th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1341.00...

Is is possible that gold can rally??? It seems miracles never cease...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close below 1323.50 in the August Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1323.48...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - 1419.15 and must close below that price on Thursday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1371.36

MAJOR - - 1351.69 and must close below that price on Monday, August 8th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1341.00

minor - - 1323.48

minor - - 1302.51

MAJOR - - 1273.802 and must close above that price on Monday, August 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1244.53

MAJOR - - 1190.56 and must close above that price on Friday, September 30th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

A truly sharp buy spike today for the LT graph, AND the key red line has turned perfectly flat today although, as with the SP LT graph, it may not be visible by just looking at the graph... this is certainly hopeful since we're now long this market...

image (3)
image (4)

The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

TRADING THE LONG TERM (LT) INDICATOR

Notice that the red oscillating line tops and bottoms along with longer term market turns... therefore, you could easily take a longer term short position when the red line turns downward from a high peak... and you could also therefore take a longer term long position when the red line turns upward from a low trough...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, July 27th

"The only person who never makes a mistake is the person who never does anything."

* * * Anonymous

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close above 2163.50 in the SEPTEMBER contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

Realizing that today was the automatic sell date for the overhead VP, the main model will use today's trade entry price for the reverse buy confirmation price, this would prevent any significant loss just in case we're witnessing only a possible pull back in a continued uptrend... although an event as today is rare, it does occur on occasion and it should not be ignored... this market should now move lower on this signal or resume its rally... either way, simply follow this signal as one would follow any VP signal and always take only light positions for good money management...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a long position with a close between 2168.50 and 2169.50 only... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2161.50... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: The entry price of 2163.50 is now considered the VP for this new trade position... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The last trade at this writing is at 2162.50 in the September...

The main model is now short the September SP from 2163.40 as of Tuesday, July 26th...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SEPTEMBER VP PRICES

SVP - - 2309.57

MAJOR - - 2174.09 and must close below that price on Monday, October 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2163.50

SVP - - 2137.39

MAJOR - - 2121.55 and must close below that price on Wednesday, August 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2118.24

minor - - 2105.703

minor - - 2071.31

SVP - - 2068.23

SVP - - 2062.39

minor - - 2035.12

MAJOR - - 2002.01 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 17th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - 1961.301

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP as of 7/8/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2156.03 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2046.85 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is primarily a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, although this format can easily be used as a trading strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 2117.10 as of 7/8/16 - - there are 10 completed trades for a total gain of 241.10 SP points...

For the BTIT strategy, attention to the market action is still required, treating the signal price the same as a VP signal price... attempting this strategy on a close only basis has not proven successful...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of 3/31/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for July above 2133.70 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for July below 2037.30 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned from down to neutral at the end of March with a monthly close above 2028.30...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself... also, look at the 1/3 Rule for easy position entry with much less risk...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)
A buy spike today in the NT indicator...
image

IF YOU PREFER A LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY WITHOUT THE FREQUENT VP INS AND OUTS AND ALL THAT MID DAY MARKET NOISE, THEN YOU MAY WELL CONSIDER THE BTIT INDICATOR OR THE LT INDICATOR TRADING METHOD FOR LONGER TERM POSITION TRADING... CHECK THE TUTORIAL BELOW TO LEARN HOW TO USE THESE METHODS EFFECTIVELY...

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph looks rather toppy now and the key red line continues to round out forming a possible top here...

image (1)
image (2)

There will be a temporary suspension in preparing individual LT graphs on request since the Website that had been providing me with the historic price date for your requests has gone down, probably down for routine repair, there is no indication of how long the site will remain down, hopefully not for long... therefore, for now, I'm unable to put together individual LT graphs on request... I'm checking regularly to see when it reopens...

The AUGUST Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 6/13/16

A close below 1308.201 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...

A close below 1208.21 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

The main model is now short the August gold from 1323.50 as of Monday, July 25th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1319.90...

This market can get out of its own way to stage any meaningful rally...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close above 1323.40 in the August Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1323.48...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - 1419.15 and must close below that price on Thursday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1371.36

MAJOR - - 1351.69 and must close below that price on Monday, August 8th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1323.48

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1319.90

minor - - 1302.51

MAJOR - - 1273.802 and must close above that price on Monday, August 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1244.53

MAJOR - - 1190.56 and must close above that price on Friday, September 30th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Still toppy looking here, although the blue and purple lines have now entered the oversold zone meaning this market could bounce...

image (3)
image (4)

The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

TRADING THE LONG TERM (LT) INDICATOR

Notice that the red oscillating line tops and bottoms along with longer term market turns... therefore, you could easily take a longer term short position when the red line turns downward from a high peak... and you could also therefore take a longer term long position when the red line turns upward from a low trough...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, July 26th

“Money can’t buy happiness, but it can buy you the kind of misery you prefer.”

* * * Author Unknown

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close below 2193.50 in the SEPTEMBER contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

Realize that 2193.50 is well above the market... even if this VP technically expires after tomorrow, it will also be used for the subsequent reverse buy VP, just in case...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a short position with a close between 2188.50 and 2187.50 only... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2195.50... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A major VP at 2193.48... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The last trade at this writing is at 2161.50 in the September...

The main model is now long the September SP from 2002.10 as of Tuesday, June 28th...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SEPTEMBER VP PRICES

SVP - - 2309.57

MAJOR - - 2193.48 and must close below that price on Tuesday, July 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2174.09 and must close below that price on Monday, October 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2161.50

SVP - - 2137.39

MAJOR - - 2121.55 and must close below that price on Wednesday, August 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2118.24

minor - - 2105.703

minor - - 2077.39

minor - - 2071.31

SVP - - 2068.23

SVP - - 2062.39

minor - - 2035.12

MAJOR - - 2002.01 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 17th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - 1961.301

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP as of 7/8/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2156.03 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2046.85 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is primarily a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, although this format can easily be used as a trading strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 2117.10 as of 7/8/16 - - there are 10 completed trades for a total gain of 241.10 SP points...

For the BTIT strategy, attention to the market action is still required, treating the signal price the same as a VP signal price... attempting this strategy on a close only basis has not proven successful...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of 3/31/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for July above 2133.70 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for July below 2037.30 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned from down to neutral at the end of March with a monthly close above 2028.30...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself... also, look at the 1/3 Rule for easy position entry with much less risk...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)
No meaningful movement today in the NT indicator, although it continues inching lower...
image

IF YOU PREFER A LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY WITHOUT THE FREQUENT VP INS AND OUTS AND ALL THAT MID DAY MARKET NOISE, THEN YOU MAY WELL CONSIDER THE BTIT INDICATOR OR THE LT INDICATOR TRADING METHOD FOR LONGER TERM POSITION TRADING... CHECK THE TUTORIAL BELOW TO LEARN HOW TO USE THESE METHODS EFFECTIVELY...

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The blue and purple lines continue lower... the key red line still moves higher but is now beginning to round off just a little bit...

image (1)
image (2)

There will be a temporary suspension in preparing individual LT graphs on request since the Website that had been providing me with the historic price date for your requests has gone down, probably down for routine repair, there is no indication of how long the site will remain down, hopefully not for long... therefore, for now, I'm unable to put together individual LT graphs on request... I'm checking regularly to see when it reopens...

The AUGUST Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 6/13/16

A close below 1308.201 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...

A close below 1208.21 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

The main model is now short the August gold from 1323.50 as of Monday, July 25th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1314.50...

This market can get out of its own way to stage any meaningful rally...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close above 1323.40 in the August Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1323.48...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - 1419.15 and must close below that price on Thursday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1371.36

MAJOR - - 1351.69 and must close below that price on Monday, August 8th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1323.48

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1314.50

minor - - 1302.51

MAJOR - - 1273.802 and must close above that price on Monday, August 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1244.53

MAJOR - - 1190.56 and must close above that price on Friday, September 30th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

So toppy... it's good to be short this market, it cannot sustain any kind of rally for very long... notice the key red line continues moving lower...

image (3)
image (4)

The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

TRADING THE LONG TERM (LT) INDICATOR

Notice that the red oscillating line tops and bottoms along with longer term market turns... therefore, you could easily take a longer term short position when the red line turns downward from a high peak... and you could also therefore take a longer term long position when the red line turns upward from a low trough...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Monday, July 25th

“Money can’t buy happiness, but it can buy you the kind of misery you prefer.”

* * * Author Unknown

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 2121.60 in the SEPTEMBER contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a short position with a close between 2116.60 and 2115.60 only... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2122.60... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A major VP at 2121.55... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The last trade at this writing is at 2167.70 in the September...

The main model is now long the September SP from 2002.10 as of Tuesday, June 28th...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SEPTEMBER VP PRICES

SVP - - 2309.57

MAJOR - - 2193.48 and must close below that price on Tuesday, July 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2174.09 and must close below that price on Monday, October 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2167.70

SVP - - 2137.39

MAJOR - - 2121.55 and must close below that price on Wednesday, August 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2118.24

minor - - 2105.703

minor - - 2077.39

minor - - 2071.31

SVP - - 2068.23

SVP - - 2062.39

MAJOR - - 2047.58 and must close above that price on Monday, July 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 2035.12

MAJOR - - 2002.01 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 17th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - 1961.301

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP as of 7/8/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2156.03 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2046.85 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is primarily a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, although this format can easily be used as a trading strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 2117.10 as of 7/8/16 - - there are 10 completed trades for a total gain of 241.10 SP points...

For the BTIT strategy, attention to the market action is still required, treating the signal price the same as a VP signal price... attempting this strategy on a close only basis has not proven successful...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of 3/31/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for July above 2133.70 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for July below 2037.30 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned from down to neutral at the end of March with a monthly close above 2028.30...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself... also, look at the 1/3 Rule for easy position entry with much less risk...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)
A modest down tick today... nothing meaningful yet...
image

IF YOU PREFER A LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY WITHOUT THE FREQUENT VP INS AND OUTS AND ALL THAT MID DAY MARKET NOISE, THEN YOU MAY WELL CONSIDER THE BTIT INDICATOR OR THE LT INDICATOR TRADING METHOD FOR LONGER TERM POSITION TRADING... CHECK THE TUTORIAL BELOW TO LEARN HOW TO USE THESE METHODS EFFECTIVELY...

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Nice upticks today...

image (1)
image (2)

There will be a temporary suspension in preparing individual LT graphs on request since the Website that had been providing me with the historic price date for your requests has gone down, probably down for routine repair, there is no indication of how long the site will remain down, hopefully not for long... therefore, for now, I'm unable to put together individual LT graphs on request... I'm checking regularly to see when it reopens...

The AUGUST Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 6/13/16

A close below 1308.201 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...

A close below 1208.21 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

The main model is now long the August gold from 1315.00 as of Thursday, July 21st...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1323.80...

A late settlement could change this price, realize the signal VP is very nearly... either way, this market is really disappointing... but frankly, who cares which way it goes, it would just be nice if it made up its mind...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 1323.50 in the August Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1323.48...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - 1419.15 and must close below that price on Thursday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1371.36

MAJOR - - 1362.34 and must close below that price on Tuesday, July 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1351.69 and must close below that price on Monday, August 8th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1323.80

minor - - 1323.48

minor - - 1314.98

minor - - 1302.51

MAJOR - - 1273.802 and must close above that price on Monday, August 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1244.53

MAJOR - - 1190.56 and must close above that price on Friday, September 30th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Looking suspicious again...

image (3)
image (4)

The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

TRADING THE LONG TERM (LT) INDICATOR

Notice that the red oscillating line tops and bottoms along with longer term market turns... therefore, you could easily take a longer term short position when the red line turns downward from a high peak... and you could also therefore take a longer term long position when the red line turns upward from a low trough...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, July 22nd

“Money can’t buy happiness, but it can buy you the kind of misery you prefer.”

* * * Author Unknown

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

6 MONTH OLD VP EXPIRATION COUNTDOWN: If you look at the VP map going all the way back to February 11th, the MAJOR VP at 2193.48 was first listed on that date... that was more than 6 months ago and is now due on July 26th, that's Tuesday of next week... 7/26 is the deadline due date for that long standing VP... when looking at the actual chart with the main model superimposed onto the chart, you would see that this market is steadily approaching a critical price/time inflection point... this does not mean the market must go down, but it does mean that the deadline for this rally is scheduled to end and the market is highly vulnerable for a more serious decline within days...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 2121.60 in the SEPTEMBER contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a short position with a close between 2116.60 and 2115.60 only... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2122.60... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A major VP at 2121.55... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The last trade at this writing is at 2158.70 in the September...

The main model is now long the September SP from 2002.10 as of Tuesday, June 28th...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SEPTEMBER VP PRICES

SVP - - 2309.57

MAJOR - - 2193.48 and must close below that price on Tuesday, July 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2174.09 and must close below that price on Monday, October 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2158.70

SVP - - 2137.39

MAJOR - - 2121.55 and must close below that price on Wednesday, August 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2118.24

minor - - 2105.703

minor - - 2077.39

minor - - 2071.31

SVP - - 2068.23

SVP - - 2062.39

MAJOR - - 2047.58 and must close above that price on Monday, July 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 2035.12

MAJOR - - 2002.01 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 17th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - 1961.301

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP as of 7/8/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2128.67 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2046.85 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is primarily a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, although this format can easily be used as a trading strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 2117.10 as of 7/8/16 - - there are 10 completed trades for a total gain of 241.10 SP points...

For the BTIT strategy, attention to the market action is still required, treating the signal price the same as a VP signal price... attempting this strategy on a close only basis has not proven successful...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of 3/31/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for July above 2133.70 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for July below 2037.30 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned from down to neutral at the end of March with a monthly close above 2028.30...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself... also, look at the 1/3 Rule for easy position entry with much less risk...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)
No movement at all in the NT indicator for today...
image

IF YOU PREFER A LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY WITHOUT THE FREQUENT VP INS AND OUTS AND ALL THAT MID DAY MARKET NOISE, THEN YOU MAY WELL CONSIDER THE BTIT INDICATOR OR THE LT INDICATOR TRADING METHOD FOR LONGER TERM POSITION TRADING... CHECK THE TUTORIAL BELOW TO LEARN HOW TO USE THESE METHODS EFFECTIVELY...

The LT (Long Term) indicator

This jumbo size LT graph is beginning to look toppy... yet, the red line still continues higher...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The AUGUST Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 6/13/16

A close below 1308.201 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...

A close below 1208.21 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

The main model is now long the August gold from 1315.00 as of Thursday, July 21st...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1332.90...

This market dipped below the 1314.98 yesterday and today... today, it closed above it... this market also had a late settlement yesterday which would have given the main model a confirmed buy signal as of yesterday, but the evening briefing had already been sent out... either way, the market gave everyone another opportunity to board this new position and ride the rally...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 1323.50 in the August Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1323.48...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - 1419.15 and must close below that price on Thursday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1371.36

MAJOR - - 1362.34 and must close below that price on Tuesday, July 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1351.69 and must close below that price on Monday, August 8th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1332.90

minor - - 1323.48

minor - - 1314.98

minor - - 1302.51

MAJOR - - 1273.802 and must close above that price on Monday, August 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1244.53

MAJOR - - 1190.56 and must close above that price on Friday, September 30th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Clear buy spikes in both the blue and purple lines in a vicinity where oversold buy spikes typically occur... this give the appearance of a long position with credible potential... meanwhile, the red line continues lower, we'll see if we get some upside follow though for this market, this would turn the red line upwards... so, we'll see...

image (3)
image (4)

The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

TRADING THE LONG TERM (LT) INDICATOR

Notice that the red oscillating line tops and bottoms along with longer term market turns... therefore, you could easily take a longer term short position when the red line turns downward from a high peak... and you could also therefore take a longer term long position when the red line turns upward from a low trough...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Thursday, July 21st

Everything that happens is a small part of our journey. We can choose to be passive or we can be proactive and overcome our fears, set our own goals and do the best to reach them. For better or for worse, we always have a choice.

* * * Giorgio Pautrie

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

IMPORTANT VP DUE DATE NOTICE: If you look at the VP map going all the way back to February 11th, the MAJOR VP at 2193.48 was first listed on that date... that was more than 4 months ago and is now due on July 26th, just another few market days from now... 7/26 is the deadline due date for that long standing VP... I'm not suggesting that you need the main model formula for this, but when looking at the actual chart with the MAIN model superimposed onto the chart, you would see that this market is steadily approaching a critical price/time inflection point... this does not mean the market must go down, but it does mean that the deadline for this rally could be finally over and the market is highly vulnerable for a more serious decline within days...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close below 2121.60 in the SEPTEMBER contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a short position with a close between 2116.60 and 2115.60 only... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2122.60... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A major VP at 2121.55... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The last trade at this writing is at 2167.50 in the September...

The main model is now long the September SP from 2002.10 as of Tuesday, June 28th...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SEPTEMBER VP PRICES

SVP - - 2309.57

MAJOR - - 2193.48 and must close below that price on Tuesday, July 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2174.09 and must close below that price on Monday, October 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2167.50

SVP - - 2137.39

MAJOR - - 2121.55 and must close below that price on Wednesday, August 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2118.24

minor - - 2105.703

minor - - 2077.39

minor - - 2071.31

SVP - - 2068.23

SVP - - 2062.39

MAJOR - - 2047.58 and must close above that price on Monday, July 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 2035.12

MAJOR - - 2002.01 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 17th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - 1961.301

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP as of 7/8/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2128.67 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2046.85 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is primarily a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, although this format can easily be used as a trading strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 2117.10 as of 7/8/16 - - there are 10 completed trades for a total gain of 241.10 SP points...

For the BTIT strategy, attention to the market action is still required, treating the signal price the same as a VP signal price... attempting this strategy on a close only basis has not proven successful...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of 3/31/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for July above 2133.70 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for July below 2037.30 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned from down to neutral at the end of March with a monthly close above 2028.30...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself... also, look at the 1/3 Rule for easy position entry with much less risk...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)
The NT indicator continues lower again today, but it coould also simply be working off an over bought condition... we'll see in another day or so what this market wants to do now...
image

IF YOU PREFER A LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY WITHOUT THE FREQUENT VP INS AND OUTS AND ALL THAT MID DAY MARKET NOISE, THEN YOU MAY WELL CONSIDER THE BTIT INDICATOR OR THE LT INDICATOR TRADING METHOD FOR LONGER TERM POSITION TRADING... CHECK THE TUTORIAL BELOW TO LEARN HOW TO USE THESE METHODS EFFECTIVELY...

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph is holding tight in a moderately overbought condition and the red line continues higher...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The AUGUST Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 6/13/16

A close below 1308.201 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...

A close below 1208.21 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

The main model is now short the August gold from 1371.40 as of Monday, July 11th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1313.80...

This market was holding above the buy VP much of the day, but failed to hold into the close...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close above 1314.90 in the August Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1314.98...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - 1419.15 and must close below that price on Thursday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1371.36

MAJOR - - 1362.34 and must close below that price on Tuesday, July 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1351.69 and must close below that price on Monday, August 8th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1313.80

minor - - 1323.48

minor - - 1314.98

minor - - 1302.51

MAJOR - - 1273.802 and must close above that price on Monday, August 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1244.53

MAJOR - - 1190.56 and must close above that price on Friday, September 30th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

All key lines continue lower, but notice how the early warning purple line has now reached deeply into the oversold zone, you could almost draw a support line across the three most recent purple bottoms... this market could turn upward soon...

image (3)
image (4)

The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

TRADING THE LONG TERM (LT) INDICATOR

Notice that the red oscillating line tops and bottoms along with longer term market turns... therefore, you could easily take a longer term short position when the red line turns downward from a high peak... and you could also therefore take a longer term long position when the red line turns upward from a low trough...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, July 20th

Everything that happens is a small part of our journey. We can choose to be passive or we can be proactive and overcome our fears, set our own goals and do the best to reach them. For better or for worse, we always have a choice.

* * * Giorgio Pautrie

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

IMPORTANT VP NOTE: If you look at the VP map going all the way back to February 11th, the MAJOR VP at  2193.48 was first listed on that date... that was more than 4 months ago and is now due on July 26th, just another few market days from now... 7/26 is the deadline due date for that long standing VP... I'm not suggesting that you need the main model formula for this, but when looking at the actual chart with the model superimposed onto the chart, you would see that this market is steadily approaching a critical price/time inflection point... this does not mean the market must go down, but it does mean that the deadline for this rally could be finally over and the market is highly vulnerable for a more serious decline within days...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close below 2121.60 in the SEPTEMBER contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a short position with a close between 2116.60 and 2115.60 only... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2122.60... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A major VP at 2121.55... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The last trade at this writing is at 2158.70 in the September...

The main model is now long the September SP from 2002.10 as of Tuesday, June 28th...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SEPTEMBER VP PRICES

SVP - - 2309.57

MAJOR - - 2193.48 and must close below that price on Tuesday, July 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2174.09 and must close below that price on Monday, October 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2158.70

SVP - - 2137.39

MAJOR - - 2121.55 and must close below that price on Wednesday, August 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2118.24

minor - - 2105.703

minor - - 2077.39

minor - - 2071.31

SVP - - 2068.23

SVP - - 2062.39

MAJOR - - 2047.58 and must close above that price on Monday, July 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 2035.12

MAJOR - - 2002.01 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 17th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - 1961.301

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP as of 7/8/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2065.604 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2046.85 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is primarily a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, although this format can easily be used as a trading strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 2117.10 as of 7/8/16 - - there are 10 completed trades for a total gain of 241.10 SP points...

For the BTIT strategy, attention to the market action is still required, treating the signal price the same as a VP signal price... attempting this strategy on a close only basis has not proven successful...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of 3/31/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for July above 2133.70 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for July below 2037.30 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned from down to neutral at the end of March with a monthly close above 2028.30...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself... also, look at the 1/3 Rule for easy position entry with much less risk...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)
Yesterday's down tick continues inching lower today...
image (5)

IF YOU PREFER A LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY WITHOUT THE FREQUENT VP INS AND OUTS AND ALL THAT MID DAY MARKET NOISE, THEN YOU MAY WELL CONSIDER THE BTIT INDICATOR OR THE LT INDICATOR TRADING METHOD FOR LONGER TERM POSITION TRADING... CHECK THE TUTORIAL BELOW TO LEARN HOW TO USE THESE METHODS EFFECTIVELY...

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The blue and purple lines have already topped out, the purple line is now below the red line... however, the red line continues higher without hesitation... the main model remains long this market...

image (6)
image (7)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The AUGUST Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 6/13/16

A close below 1308.201 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...

A close below 1208.21 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

The main model is now short the August gold from 1371.40 as of Monday, July 11th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1332.90...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close above 1351.60 in the August Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A major VP at 1351.69...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - 1419.15 and must close below that price on Thursday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1371.36

MAJOR - - 1362.34 and must close below that price on Tuesday, July 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1351.69 and must close below that price on Monday, August 8th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1332.90

minor - - 1323.48

minor - - 1314.98

minor - - 1302.51

MAJOR - - 1273.802 and must close above that price on Monday, August 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1244.53

MAJOR - - 1190.56 and must close above that price on Friday, September 30th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

We can see ever so modest up ticks in the first graph, a bottom forming here??? We'll need to see more proof... the red line continues downward... the main model remains short this market...

image (8)
image (9)

The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

TRADING THE LONG TERM (LT) INDICATOR

Notice that the red oscillating line tops and bottoms along with longer term market turns... therefore, you could easily take a longer term short position when the red line turns downward from a high peak... and you could also therefore take a longer term long position when the red line turns upward from a low trough...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, July 19th

"Study is not the learning of facts, but the training of the mind to think."

* * * Albert Einstein

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close below 2121.60 in the SEPTEMBER contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a short position with a close between 2116.60 and 2115.60 only... if filled, place an exit stop to go flat at 2122.60... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A major VP at 2121.55... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The last trade at this writing is at 2160.50 in the September...

The main model is now long the September SP from 2002.10 as of Tuesday, June 28th...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SEPTEMBER VP PRICES

SVP - - 2309.57

MAJOR - - 2193.48 and must close below that price on Tuesday, July 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2174.09 and must close below that price on Monday, October 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2160.50

SVP - - 2137.39

MAJOR - - 2121.55 and must close below that price on Wednesday, August 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2118.24

minor - - 2105.703

minor - - 2077.39

minor - - 2071.31

SVP - - 2068.23

SVP - - 2062.39

MAJOR - - 2047.58 and must close above that price on Monday, July 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 2035.12

MAJOR - - 2002.01 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 17th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - 1961.301

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP as of 7/8/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2065.604 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2046.85 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is primarily a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, although this format can easily be used as a trading strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 2117.10 as of 7/8/16 - - there are 10 completed trades for a total gain of 241.10 SP points...

For the BTIT strategy, attention to the market action is still required, treating the signal price the same as a VP signal price... attempting this strategy on a close only basis has not proven successful...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of 3/31/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for July above 2133.70 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for July below 2037.30 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned from down to neutral at the end of March with a monthly close above 2028.30...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself... also, look at the 1/3 Rule for easy position entry with much less risk...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)
A modest down tick today, but nothing yet to write home about...
image

IF YOU PREFER A LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY WITHOUT THE FREQUENT VP INS AND OUTS AND ALL THAT MID DAY MARKET NOISE, THEN YOU MAY WELL CONSIDER THE BTIT INDICATOR OR THE LT INDICATOR TRADING METHOD FOR LONGER TERM POSITION TRADING... CHECK THE TUTORIAL BELOW TO LEARN HOW TO USE THESE METHODS EFFECTIVELY...

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Still looking heavy but the red line continues higher... the main model remains long this market...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The AUGUST Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 6/13/16

A close below 1308.201 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...

A close below 1208.21 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

The main model is now short the August gold from 1371.40 as of Monday, July 11th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1331.70...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close above 1351.60 in the August Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A major VP at 1351.69...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - 1419.15 and must close below that price on Thursday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1371.36

MAJOR - - 1362.34 and must close below that price on Tuesday, July 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1351.69 and must close below that price on Monday, August 8th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1331.70

minor - - 1323.48

minor - - 1314.98

minor - - 1302.51

MAJOR - - 1273.802 and must close above that price on Monday, August 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1244.53

MAJOR - - 1190.56 and must close above that price on Friday, September 30th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This market is approaching oversold territory, but the red line is clearly moving lower... the main model remains short this market...

image (3)
image (4)

The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

TRADING THE LONG TERM (LT) INDICATOR

Notice that the red oscillating line tops and bottoms along with longer term market turns... therefore, you could easily take a longer term short position when the red line turns downward from a high peak... and you could also therefore take a longer term long position when the red line turns upward from a low trough...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

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