For Monday, May 2nd

“I once had a dog who really believed he was man’s best friend.  He kept borrowing money from me.”

 

* * *   Gene Perret

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:   

For Monday, a close above 2066.20 in the June contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...  be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...
 
For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market...  take a long position with a close above 2066.20 but not below 2072.20...  also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...  of course, any questions, please just ask...
 
 
Rationale:  A VP at 2066.26...  for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...
 
The last trade at this writing is at 2058.00... 
 
 The main model is now short the June SP from 2074.10 as of Friday, April 29th... 
 
Last night's evening session saw the market trade up to 2075.00 and then move lower...  this triggered the sell signal which is now confirmed on today's close...  this is an incredibly choppy market...  if you would prefer a longer term position without the heavy focus on the near term VP signals, then you might consider reviewing the LT trading strategy explained in the tutorial at the bottom of this email...  during the day today, the market traded down to the 2046.04 SVP, but the SVP points are not currently being used for official main model positions...  
 
THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW    
 
The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily...  knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map... 
Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points...  you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...
MAJOR - -   2198.85 
and must close below that price on
Monday, July 25th
to confirm a new main model sell signal...
 
SVP - - 2098.20
MAJOR - -   2093.63 
and must close below that price on
Tuesday, May 10th
to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - -   2092.86 
and must close below that price on
Tuesday, May 3rd
to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2083.52
minor - - 2083.03
MAJOR - -   2082.79 
and must close below that price on
Friday, April 29th
to confirm a new main model sell signal...  
 
minor - - 2074.05


SVP - - 2068.52
minor - - 2066.26  
TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2058.00
SVP - - 2046.04
minor - - 2020.47
MAJOR - -   1993.88 
and must close below that price on
Thursday, May 12th
to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - -   1987.57 
and must close above that price on
Tuesday, June 7th
to confirm a new main model buy signal...
SVP - - 1983.99
minor - - 1953.67
minor - - 1941.72
minor - - 1918.73
MAJOR - -   1915.34 
and must close above that price on
Thursday, May 12th
to confirm a new main model buy signal...
 
The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...  
 
PLEASE NOTE:  It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map...  

the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...  

 
The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
 
1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2)  Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...
 
 
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS:  NEUTRAL since 4/28/16
 
The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices...  when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP...  when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN...  the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...  when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...
 
A close above 2099.76 would turn the BTIT to up...   
 
A close below 1897.81 would turn the BTIT to down...   
THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY
 
A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down...  when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...
 
The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, this is a trading strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring...  be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...  
 
 
The BTIT current trade position:  Flat from 2075.10 on Thursday, April 28th 2016  -  -  there are 7 trades completed for a total gain of 285.80 SP points...  
 
 
THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of March 31, 2016
 
This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...  
 
A monthly close for May above 2161.90 would turn the MTI to up...   
 
A monthly close for May below 2019.50 would turn the MTI to down...   
 
The MTI turned from down to neutral at the end of March with a monthly close above 2028.30...
 
This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA...  there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001...  this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...
 
 
Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal???  Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules...  I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself...
 
The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals...  this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition...  please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...  the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...  I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...
 
The Hoban Rule Performance History:
 
The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points...  this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals...  of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals...  if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...
 

The NT (Near Term) indicator  (the red line)

 
With the general market moving lower today, the NT indicator moved deeper into the overbought zone...
 
image
 
 
IF YOU PREFER A LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY WITHOUT THE FREQUENT VP INS AND OUTS, THEN YOU MAY WELL CONSIDER THE LT INDICATOR TRADING METHOD FOR LONGER TERM POSITION TRADING...  CHECK THE TUTORIAL BELOW TO LEARN HOW TO USE THIS METHOD EFFECTIVELY...
 
 
The LT (Long Term) indicator
 
The third graph below is the red line and price line graph...  this graph shows a market still heavily overbought...  the red line continues downward, so the LT traders would remain short this market...
 
image (1)
image (2)

image (3)

 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 

 

 

 

 

 

The JUNE Gold futures   
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS:   UP since 4/11/16
 
A close below 1215.70 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...
 
A close below 1206.82 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...
 
The BTIT turned up with a close above 1253.99...
The main model is now long the June gold from 1234.50 as of Monday, April 25th...  
 
The last trade as of this writing is at 1296.40...
 
TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:
 
For Monday, a close below 1234.60 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...   also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates...  tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...  (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)
 
Rationale:  A major VP at 1234.51...  
 
THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW  
 

MAJOR - -  (none) 

and must close below that price on
(none)
to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1296.40
 
minor - - 1234.51


 
minor - - (none)
 
minor - - 1207.15
 
minor - - 1184.28
 
MAJOR - -    1142.64 
and must close above that price on
Tuesday, May 3rd
to confirm a new main model buy signal...
 
The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market... 
 
The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
 
1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2)  Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
 
A nice break out in this market...  and the key red line turned higher yesterday...  anyone who bought the gold or gold complex shares as a result of the LT red line upturn did well today and the LT position remains long this market...  you can see below in the 3rd graph the red line and the green price line together...
 
image (4)
image (5)
image (6)
 
The Main Model Formula
 
The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it.  This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend...  also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. 
 
USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS...  AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...
 
Light Positions:
 
It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...  also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips...  to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...  
 
Trailing Stops:
 
Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious...  the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction...  for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...  
 
Trading Strategy:
 
Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry...  this will eliminate all whips...
 
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...  also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 

 

The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...  VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price...  all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...
 
The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it.  This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend...  also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.  Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time...  these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price...  at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend...  this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
THE HOBAN RULE
 
The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only...  using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...  
 
To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:
 
1)  The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and
 
2)  The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...
 
3)  Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...
 
Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information...   if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade...  or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF...  or you can simply take the trade the following morning...
 
However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...
 
In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:
 
1)  Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...
 
To exit the trade:
 
1)  Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price...  if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...
 
2)  If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...
 
3)  If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...
 
4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price...  but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...
 
Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close...  and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
TRADING THE LONG TERM (LT) INDICATOR
 
Notice that the red oscillating line tops and bottoms along with longer term market turns...  therefore, you could easily take a longer term short position when the red line turns downward from a high peak...  and you could also therefore take a longer term long position when the red line turns upward from a low trough...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 

 

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 

 

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

For Friday, April 29th

“I once had a dog who really believed he was man’s best friend. He kept borrowing money from me.”

* * * Gene Perret

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

PLEASE NOTE: TODAY, A NEW TRADING STRATEGY IS INCLUDED IN THE TUTORIAL ON HOW TO TRADE THE LT INDICATOR FOR A LONGER TERM POSITION WITHOUT MAJOR CONCERN FOR THE MORE NEAR TERM VP POINTS... IF YOU PREFER A LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY WITHOUT THE FREQUENT VP INS AND OUTS, THEN YOU MAY WELL CONSIDER THIS METHOD FOR LONGER TERM POSITION TRADING... CHECK THE TUTORIAL TO LEARN HOW TO USE THIS METHOD EFFECTIVELY...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 2066.30 in the June contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a short position with a close below 2066.30 but not below 2060.30... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A VP at 2066.26... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The last trade at this writing is at 2073.00...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2066.20 as of Thursday, April 28th...

The market sold down to below the 2066.26 minor-VP and then closed above it AND the 2068.52 SVP ... this puts the main model into a long position...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

MAJOR - - 2198.85 and must close below that price on Monday, July 25th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 2098.20

MAJOR - - 2093.63 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 10th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2092.86 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2083.52

minor - - 2083.03

MAJOR - - 2082.79 and must close below that price on Friday, April 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2074.05

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2073.00

SVP - - 2068.52

minor - - 2066.26

SVP - - 2046.04

minor - - 2020.47

MAJOR - - 1993.88 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1987.57 and must close above that price on Tuesday, June 7th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - 1983.99

minor - - 1953.67

minor - - 1941.72

minor - - 1918.73

MAJOR - - 1915.34 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 2/25/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2029.52 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 1887.00 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, this is a trading strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 1943.70 on Thursday, February 25th 2016 - - there are 6 trades completed for a total gain of 154.40 SP points...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of March 31, 2016

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April above 2161.90 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for April below 2055.50 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned from down to neutral at the end of March with a monthly close above 2028.30...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

No meaningful movement in the NT today...

image (5)

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The red line has turned downward with a negative divergent double top... this means the trend bias is lower for now and a light longer term short position could be held until the red line again turns upward...

image (6)
image (7)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The JUNE Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 4/11/16

A close below 1215.70 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...

A close below 1206.82 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

The BTIT turned up with a close above 1253.99...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1234.50 as of Monday, April 25th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1268.70...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 1234.60 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A major VP at 1234.51...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - (none) and must close below that price on (none) to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1268.70

minor - - 1234.51

minor - - (none)

minor - - 1207.15

minor - - 1184.28

MAJOR - - 1142.64 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

The red line turned upward today, although it may not be that clearly visible hidden behind the blue line... the main model is already long this market, but with the red line turning upward today, this suggests that the gold market may well be at the beginning of a more sustainable rally from current levels and a more serious longer term position could be entered...

image (8)
image (9)

The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

TRADING THE LONG TERM (LT) INDICATOR

Notice that the red oscillating line tops and bottoms along with longer term market turns... therefore, you could easily take a longer term short position when the red line turns downward from a high peak... and you could also therefore take a longer term long position when the red line turns upward from a low trough...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Thursday, April 28th

“Money can’t buy happiness, but it can buy you the kind of misery you prefer.”

* * * Author Unknown

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close above 2092.80 in the June contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a long position with a close above 2092.80 but not above 2098.80... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A major VP at 2092.86... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The last trade at this writing is at 2091.00...

The main model is now short the June SP from 2092.90 as of Wednesday, April 27th...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

MAJOR - - 2198.85 and must close below that price on Monday, July 25th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 2098.20

MAJOR - - 2093.63 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 10th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2092.86 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2091.00

minor - - 2083.52

minor - - 2083.03

MAJOR - - 2082.79 and must close below that price on Friday, April 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2074.05

SVP - - 2068.52

minor - - 2066.26

SVP - - 2046.04

MAJOR - - 1993.88 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 1983.99

minor - - 1953.67

minor - - 1941.72

minor - - 1918.73

MAJOR - - 1915.34 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 2/25/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2029.52 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 1887.00 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, this is a trading strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 1943.70 on Thursday, February 25th 2016 - - there are 6 trades completed for a total gain of 154.40 SP points...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of March 31, 2016

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April above 2161.90 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for April below 2055.50 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned from down to neutral at the end of March with a monthly close above 2028.30...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

A buy spike today...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

This LT graph still looks toppy, the key red line is still moving lower as of today...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The JUNE Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 4/11/16

A close below 1215.70 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...

A close below 1206.82 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

The BTIT turned up with a close above 1253.99...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1234.50 as of Monday, April 25th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1247.60...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close below 1234.60 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A major VP at 1234.51...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - (none) and must close below that price on (none) to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1247.60

minor - - 1234.51

minor - - (none)

minor - - 1207.15

minor - - 1184.28

MAJOR - - 1142.64 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This market looks as if it's waiting for direction... the key red line turned completely flat today, but not higher yet... maybe tomorrow...

image (3)
image (4)

The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, April 27th

“Money can’t buy happiness, but it can buy you the kind of misery you prefer.”

* * * Author Unknown

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close below 2083.60 in the June contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a short position with a close below 2083.60 but not below 2077.60... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A VP at 2083.52... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The last trade at this writing is at 2087.00...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2074.00 as of Monday, April 25th...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

MAJOR - - 2198.85 and must close below that price on Monday, July 25th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 2098.20

MAJOR - - 2093.63 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 10th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2092.86 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2087.00

minor - - 2083.52

minor - - 2083.03

MAJOR - - 2082.79 and must close below that price on Friday, April 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2074.05

SVP - - 2068.52

minor - - 2066.26

SVP - - 2046.04

MAJOR - - 1993.88 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 1983.99

minor - - 1953.67

minor - - 1941.72

minor - - 1918.73

MAJOR - - 1915.34 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 2/25/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2029.52 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 1887.00 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, this is a trading strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 1943.70 on Thursday, February 25th 2016 - - there are 6 trades completed for a total gain of 154.40 SP points...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of March 31, 2016

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April above 2161.90 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for April below 2055.50 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned from down to neutral at the end of March with a monthly close above 2028.30...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Downside follow through on yesterday's sell spike...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

this LT graph continues to looks seriously toppy, and the key red line is now moving lower after a sort of double top... there is a high correlation between the high and low peaks of the red line and a change in direction for market price, just look at the chart... this suggests that this market may well be in the midst of a broad topping action right now... time will tell...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The JUNE Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 4/11/16

A close below 1215.70 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...

A close below 1206.82 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

The BTIT turned up with a close above 1253.99...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1234.50 as of Monday, April 25th...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close below 1234.60 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A major VP at 1234.51...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1243.70...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - (none) and must close below that price on (none) to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1243.70

minor - - 1234.51

minor - - (none)

minor - - 1207.15

minor - - 1184.28

MAJOR - - 1142.64 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This LT graph shows a market in the middle on no man's land... it's neither overbought nor oversold right now... it's just waiting for direction...

image (3)
image (4)

The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, April 26th

"An ounce of practice is worth a pound of theory."

* * * John Jacob Astor

WE HAD A GREAT TIME, AS ALWAYS!!! Thanks for allowing me the time away!!!

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close below 2083.10 in the June contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a short position with a close below 2083.10 but not below 2077.10... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A VP at 2083.03... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The last trade at this writing is at 2083.40...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

MAJOR - - 2198.85 and must close below that price on Monday, July 25th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 2098.20

MAJOR - - 2093.63 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 10th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2092.86 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2083.52

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2083.40

minor - - 2083.03

MAJOR - - 2082.79 and must close below that price on Friday, April 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2074.05

SVP - - 2068.52

minor - - 2066.26

SVP - - 2046.04

MAJOR - - 1993.88 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 1983.99

minor - - 1953.67

minor - - 1941.72

minor - - 1918.73

MAJOR - - 1915.34 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 2/25/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2029.52 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 1887.00 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, this is a trading strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 1943.70 on Thursday, February 25th 2016 - - there are 6 trades completed for a total gain of 154.40 SP points...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of March 31, 2016

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April above 2161.90 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for April below 2055.50 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned from down to neutral at the end of March with a monthly close above 2028.30...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Big sell spike today in the NT Indicator...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph continues looking heavy...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The JUNE Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 4/11/16

A close below 1215.70 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...

A close below 1206.82 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

The BTIT turned up with a close above 1253.99...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1234.50 as of Monday, April 25th...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close below 1234.60 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A major VP at 1234.51...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1238.40...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - (none) and must close below that price on (none) to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1238.40

minor - - 1234.51

minor - - (none)

minor - - 1207.15

minor - - 1184.28

MAJOR - - 1142.64 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

The LT graph shows a market that is neither overbought nor oversold... it's now waiting for direction... even the all important red line is sitting near the zero balance point, no movement or direction right now whatsoever... since both the blue and purple lines are now below the red line which is also moving lower, possibly this market is getting ready for a decline of some sort... let's watch this one closely...

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The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, April, 12th

"An ounce of practice is worth a pound of theory."

* * * John Jacob Astor

The next evening briefing subsequent to this one will be delivered into your email inbox on Monday, April 25th after the markets finish trading for that day...

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Tomorrow morning at peak high tide we'll be weighing anchor, hoisting the mails'l, and will be putting out to sea through the Bahama Straits... once in deep water, we'll then set a course due east southeast to Antigua where we will then set a course due south through the southern Caribbean waters and on to the islands of Barbados and the Grenadines where we will make landfall for some R and R... see you all in 2 weeks...

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NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Tuesday, April 12th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to clear the gathering cobwebs and recharge the worn out batteries, and also to celebrate my wife's birthday... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Monday evening of that week, the 11th... I will return on Friday, April 22nd, and then the evening briefings will resume again on Monday, April 25th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop for 14 days... this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you some additional subscription time as a vacation bonus as my gift to you...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a one time cost lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own, this also includes the new SVP points, as well...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

NOTE: If your renewal invoice is on auto renewal, then it will be cancelled in order for you to receive the bonus vacation days added to your current subscription...

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close above 2049.40 in the June contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a long position with a close above 2049.40 but not above 2055.40... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A VP at 2049.45... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The last trade at this writing is at 2034.30...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

MAJOR - - 2198.85 and must close below that price on Monday, July 25th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 2098.20

MAJOR - - 2093.63 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 10th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2083.52

MAJOR - - 2082.79 and must close below that price on Friday, April 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2074.05

SVP - - 2068.52

minor - - 2066.26

MAJOR - - 2064.35 and must close below that price on Tuesday, April 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2049.45

SVP - - 2049.15

SVP - - 2046.04

SVP - - 2043.93

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2034.30

minor - - 2033.48

minor - - 2032.52

MAJOR - - 2021.11 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 27th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - 2018.59

MAJOR - - 2017.81 and must close above that price on Monday, May 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1993.88 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 1983.99

MAJOR - - 1968.66 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 1968.19

minor - - 1941.72
minor - - 1918.73

minor - - 1953.67
MAJOR - - 1915.34 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 2/25/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2029.52 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 1887.00 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, this is a trading strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 1943.70 on Thursday, February 25th 2016 - - there are 6 trades completed for a total gain of 154.40 SP points...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of March 31, 2016

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April above 2161.90 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for April below 2055.50 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned from down to neutral at the end of March with a monthly close above 2028.30...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

No meaningful movement in the NT indicator today, same as last Friday...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

All three key lines continue drifting lower, especially the red line which looks rather toppy here... compared to the previous red peaks, look at how overbought this market continues to be...

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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The JUNE Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 4/11/16
A close below 1215.70 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...
A close below 1206.82 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...
The BTIT turned up with a close above 1253.99...
The main model is now long the June gold from 1234.50 as of Thursday, April 7th...
TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:
For Tuesday, a close below 1234.60 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A major VP at 1234.51...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1258.20...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - (none) and must close below that price on (none) to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1258.20

minor - - 1234.51

minor - - (none)

MAJOR - - 1211.803 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 20th to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, same date as major 1202.99

minor - - 1207.15

MAJOR - - 1202.99 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 20th to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, same date as major 1211.803

minor - - 1184.28

MAJOR - - 1142.64 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Can I believe my eyes??? The blue line has moved above the red line which is also now moving higher... a bull market rally??? Will someone please pinch me, I just want to make sure I'm not dreaming!!!

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The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Monday, April 11th

"The only person who never makes a mistake is the person who never does anything."

* * * Anonymous

NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Tuesday, April 12th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to clear the gathering cobwebs and recharge the worn out batteries, and also to celebrate my wife's birthday... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Monday evening of that week, the 11th... I will return on Friday, April 22nd, and then the evening briefings will resume again on Monday, April 25th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop for 14 days... this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you some additional subscription time as a vacation bonus as my gift to you...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a one time cost lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own, this also includes the new SVP points, as well...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

NOTE: If your renewal invoice is on auto renewal, then it will be cancelled in order for you to receive the bonus vacation days added to your current subscription...

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close above 2049.40 in the June contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a long position with a close above 2049.40 but not above 2055.40... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A VP at 2049.45... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The last trade at this writing is at 2041.00...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

MAJOR - - 2198.85 and must close below that price on Monday, July 25th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 2098.20

MAJOR - - 2093.63 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 10th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2083.52

MAJOR - - 2082.79 and must close below that price on Friday, April 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2074.05

SVP - - 2068.52

minor - - 2066.26

MAJOR - - 2064.35 and must close below that price on Tuesday, April 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2049.45

SVP - - 2049.15

SVP - - 2046.04

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2041.00

minor - - 2033.48

SVP - - 2018.59

MAJOR - - 2017.81 and must close above that price on Monday, May 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1993.88 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 1983.99

MAJOR - - 1968.66 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 1968.19

minor - - 1941.72
minor - - 1918.73

minor - - 1953.67
MAJOR - - 1915.34 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 2/25/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2026.31 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 1887.00 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, this is a trading strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 1943.70 on Thursday, February 25th 2016 - - there are 6 trades completed for a total gain of 154.40 SP points...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of March 31, 2016

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April above 2161.90 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for April below 2055.50 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned down at the end of January with a monthly close below 1921.90...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

No meaningful movement in the NT indicator at all today after yesterday's clear sell spike...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph is still looking heavy, but also no meaningful movement here today, either...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The JUNE Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL since 3/14/16
A close above 1260.90 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...
A close below 1206.82 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...
The main model is now long the June gold from 1234.50 as of Thursday, April 7th...
TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:
For Monday, a close below 1234.60 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A major VP at 1234.51...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1241.80...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - (none) and must close below that price on (none) to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1241.80

minor - - 1234.51

minor - - (none)

MAJOR - - 1211.803 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 20th to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, same date as major 1202.99

minor - - 1207.15

MAJOR - - 1202.99 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 20th to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, same date as major 1211.803

minor - - 1184.28

MAJOR - - 1142.64 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

The blue line is now touching the red line, a possible backing away could occur, so watch for some profit taking in this market for Monday... also, we have a slight down tick in the purple line... just keep you positions light so you could handle any surprises...

image (3)
image (4)

The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, April 8th

"The only person who never makes a mistake is the person who never does anything."

* * * Anonymous

NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Tuesday, April 12th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to clear the gathering cobwebs and recharge the worn out batteries, and also to celebrate my wife's birthday... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Monday evening of that week, the 11th... I will return on Friday, April 22nd, and then the evening briefings will resume again on Monday, April 25th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop for 14 days... this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you some additional subscription time as a vacation bonus as my gift to you...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a one time cost lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own, this also includes the new SVP points, as well...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

NOTE: If your renewal invoice is on auto renewal, then it will be cancelled in order for you to receive the bonus vacation days added to your current subscription...

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 2033.50 in the June contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a short position with a close below 2033.50 but not below 2027.50... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A VP at 2033.48... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2049.40 as of Wednesday, April 6th...

The last trade at this writing is at 2035.70...

We actually did get a sell signal early this morning with a break below the 2049.50 level, but then late in the afternoon the market sold down below the VP at 2033.48 and then closed above it... this means we had a day trade short and will remain long this market for the main model position...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

MAJOR - - 2198.85 and must close below that price on Monday, July 25th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 2098.20

MAJOR - - 2090.005 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2083.52

MAJOR - - 2078.04 and must close below that price on Thursday, April 21st to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2074.05

SVP - - 2068.52

minor - - 2066.26

MAJOR - - 2064.35 and must close below that price on Tuesday, April 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2049.45

SVP - - 2049.15

SVP - - 2046.04

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2035.70

minor - - 2033.48

SVP - - 2018.59

MAJOR - - 2017.81 and must close above that price on Monday, May 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1993.88 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 1983.99

MAJOR - - 1968.66 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 1968.19

minor - - 1941.72
minor - - 1918.73

minor - - 1953.67
MAJOR - - 1915.34 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 2/25/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2035.36 would turn the BTIT to neutral... WOW, that was really close, today!!!

A close below 1887.00 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, this is a trading strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 1943.70 on Thursday, February 25th 2016 - - there are 6 trades completed for a total gain of 154.40 SP points...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of March 31, 2016

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April above 2161.90 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for April below 2055.50 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned down at the end of January with a monthly close below 1921.90...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

A clear sell spike today...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Still looking heavy, but the purple line is no longer overbought...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The APRIL Gold futures Rolling into June gold tomorrow!!!
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL since 3/14/16
A close above 1260.90 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...
A close below 1206.82 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...
The main model is now long the April gold from 1234.50 as of Thursday, April 7th...
TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:
For Friday, a close below 1234.60 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A major VP at 1234.51...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1242.40...

What a crazy market!!!

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - (none) and must close below that price on (none) to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1234.51

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1242.40

minor - - (none)

MAJOR - - 1211.803 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 20th to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, same date as major 1202.99

minor - - 1207.15

MAJOR - - 1202.99 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 20th to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, same date as major 1211.803

minor - - 1184.28

MAJOR - - 1142.64 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Solid buy spikes today and the red line has turned flat today after having been moving lower for several weeks... this market could be ready to rally more significantly, especially if the red line begins turning upwards...

image (3)
image (4)

The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Thursday, April 7th

"The only person who never makes a mistake is the person who never does anything."

* * * Anonymous

NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Tuesday, April 12th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to clear the gathering cobwebs and recharge the worn out batteries, and also to celebrate my wife's birthday... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Monday evening of that week, the 11th... I will return on Friday, April 22nd, and then the evening briefings will resume again on Monday, April 25th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop for 14 days... this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you some additional subscription time as a vacation bonus as my gift to you...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a one time cost lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own, this also includes the new SVP points, as well...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

NOTE: If your renewal invoice is on auto renewal, then it will be cancelled in order for you to receive the bonus vacation days added to your current subscription...

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close below 2049.50 in the June contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a short position with a close below 2049.50 but not below 2043.50... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A VP at 2049.45... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2049.40 as of Wednesday, April 6th... we're long again, there's no stopping this market!!!

The last trade at this writing is at 2059.00...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

MAJOR - - 2198.85 and must close below that price on Monday, July 25th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 2098.20

MAJOR - - 2090.005 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2083.52

MAJOR - - 2078.04 and must close below that price on Thursday, April 21st to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2074.05

SVP - - 2068.52

minor - - 2066.26

MAJOR - - 2064.35 and must close below that price on Tuesday, April 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2059.00

minor - - 2049.45

SVP - - 2049.15

SVP - - 2046.04

minor - - 2033.48

SVP - - 2018.59

MAJOR - - 2017.81 and must close above that price on Monday, May 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1993.88 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 1983.99

MAJOR - - 1968.66 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 1968.19

minor - - 1941.72
minor - - 1918.73

minor - - 1953.67
MAJOR - - 1915.34 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 2/25/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2035.36 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 1887.00 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, this is a trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 1943.70 on Thursday, February 25th 2016 - - there are 6 trades completed for a total gain of 154.40 SP points...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of March 31, 2016

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April above 2161.90 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for April below 2055.50 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned down at the end of January with a monthly close below 1921.90...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator continues higher with the market... it looks like all down days have been cancelled until further notice, a truly amazing market...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The blue line remains in overbought territory, but the more quick footed purple line is now giving a buy spike while in neutral territory... possibly, this rally could continue for some time...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The APRIL Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL since 3/14/16
A close above 1260.90 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...
A close below 1206.82 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...
The main model is now short the April gold from 1234.60 as of Tuesday, April 5th...
TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:
For Thursday, a close above 1234.50 in the April Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A major VP at 1234.51...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1223.60...

A surprising rally above a VP and then closing below it, confirming a sell signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - (none) and must close below that price on (none) to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1234.51

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1223.60

minor - - (none)

MAJOR - - 1211.803 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 20th to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, same date as major 1202.99

minor - - 1207.15

MAJOR - - 1202.99 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 20th to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, same date as major 1211.803

minor - - 1184.28

MAJOR - - 1142.64 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

The LT graph shows a market no longer overbought but not quite oversold yet... we remain short until we have a legitimate buy signal...

image (3)
image (4)

The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, April 6th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does."

* * * John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.

NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Tuesday, April 12th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to clear the gathering cobwebs and recharge the worn out batteries, and also to celebrate my wife's birthday... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Monday evening of that week, the 11th... I will return on Friday, April 22nd, and then the evening briefings will resume again on Monday, April 25th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop for 14 days... this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you some additional subscription time as a vacation bonus as my gift to you...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a one time cost lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own, this also includes the new SVP points, as well...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

TOMORROW'S SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close above 2049.40 in the June contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... take a long position with a close above 2049.40 but not above 2055.40... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A VP at 2049.45... for aggressive traders, you could always use the more nearby SVP points for better money management...

The main model is now short the June SP from 2064.40 as of Monday, April 4th... we just closed out a long position for about 102 SP points!!!

The last trade at this writing is at 2039.20 after reaching down to 2034.50... we have a VP at 2033.48 but the market didn't quite reach it before bouncing... maybe tomorrow...

All in all, not a pretty day for those holding long positions...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

MAJOR - - 2198.85 and must close below that price on Monday, July 25th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 2098.20

minor - - 2083.52

MAJOR - - 2078.04 and must close below that price on Thursday, April 21st to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 2068.52

minor - - 2066.26

MAJOR - - 2064.35 and must close below that price on Tuesday, April 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2049.45

SVP - - 2046.04

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2039.20

minor - - 2033.48

SVP - - 2018.59

MAJOR - - 2017.81 and must close above that price on Monday, May 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1993.88 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 1983.99

MAJOR - - 1968.66 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - 1968.19

minor - - 1941.72
minor - - 1918.73

minor - - 1953.67
MAJOR - - 1915.34 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 2/25/16

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A close below 2035.36 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 1887.00 would turn the BTIT to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, this is a trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Long from 1943.70 on Thursday, February 25th 2016 - - there are 6 trades completed for a total gain of 154.40 SP points...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - NEUTRAL as of March 31, 2016

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for April above 2161.90 would turn the MTI to up...

A monthly close for April below 2055.50 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI turned down at the end of January with a monthly close below 1921.90...

This model is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 47 full turn "down to up" and "up to down" signals with only 4 false signals in all 102 years, those false signals occurred in 1938, 1941, 1947, and November, 2001... this is an 85.1% accuracy rate since 1914...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 38 trades for a net gain of 259.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

A modest down spike today, nothing yet impressive, while still in overbought territory...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Convincing sell spikes today, and the blue line crossed below the key red line today... the bias now is downward...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The APRIL Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL since 3/14/16
A close above 1260.90 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...
A close below 1206.82 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...
The main model is now short the April gold from 1234.60 as of Tuesday, April 5th...
TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:
For Wednesday, a close above 1234.50 in the April Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time)

Rationale: A major VP at 1234.51...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1231.40...

A surprising rally above a VP and then closing below it, confirming a sell signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

MAJOR - - (none) and must close below that price on (none) to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1234.51

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1231.40

minor - - (none)

MAJOR - - 1211.803 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 20th to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, same date as major 1202.99

minor - - 1207.15

MAJOR - - 1202.99 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 20th to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, same date as major 1211.803

minor - - 1184.28

MAJOR - - 1142.64 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Clear buy spikes although the main model is now short as of today... watch the action tomorrow...

image (3)
image (4)

The Main Model Formula

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP FUTURES CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

Light Positions:

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market... also, if you're not nimble with these markets, then you may want to wait until the market closes for the day to be sure that any new signal is confirmed, this will eliminate all possible mid day whips... to be safer overnight, consider using an exit stop for capital preservation...

Trailing Stops:

Also, trailing stops are completely individual, it is presume that subscribers would have their own personal strategy on how and when to enter and exit the trade, these market can often be vicious... the VP points tell you where and if the market is about to move in one or another direction... for myself, I like to take profits at any time I get the sense I'm satisfied, I don't need to ride out every signal all the way to the last stop, it's really not necessary...

Trading Strategy:

Also, if you're having difficulty with these markets, I strongly urge that you consider a combination of the Hoban Rule and the 1/3 Rule to enter the trade positions, or just wait until the next morning to find a comfortable place to enter the trade, there's never a hurry... this will eliminate all whips...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...