For Tuesday, December 1st

Money isn't the most important thing in life, but it's reasonably close to oxygen on the "gotta have it" scale.

* * * Zig Ziglar

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The VP Price Map will replace the mid day updates, or most of them... this way, you'll never have to wonder if you missed any updates... the VP map tells you everything you need to know and you already know the two key rules for using the VP points to position yourself... this will only make you a much more savvy trader...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL since 11/9/15

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...

A close above 2097.30 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up... close but no cigar...

A close below 1886.93 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, it is a trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Now flat from 2077.60 as of Monday, November 9th, 2015... 3 trades completed, a total gain of 104.90 SP points...

The main model is now short the December SP from 2093.70 as of Monday, November 30th...

Today's high was 2094.90, so it traded above the overhead VP and then closed below it... this is a confirmed sell signal for today...

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2081.70 for December...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close above 2085.90 in the December contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map for additional VP points that may trigger a buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... enter a new long position with a close above 2085.90 but not above 2091.90... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A major VP at 2085.91...

Please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 36 trades for a net gain of 235.30 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator is exactly flat and unchanged from yesterday, this is rare but means nothing at the moment...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

After five consecutive days of being absolutely flat and unchanged, the blue like today took a down turn... the purple lines also turned lower today... the LT graph is beginning to look a bit heavy now...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map, this VP map will replace the need for mid day updates which many of you have not been able to see or receive during your busy mid day schedule... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below... this would also eliminate the risk of my not sending out any mid day updates due to power failures, running errands, or any other possible reason... this way, since you already know the very simple rules, you would become a more efficient trader without depending on mid day correspondence which is always subject to loss or nondelivery...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2164.49 and must close below that price on Tuesday, February 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.56 and must close below that price on Tuesday, January 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2117.21

MAJOR - - 2107.94 and must close below that price on Monday, December 14th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2096.25

minor - - 2093.66

MAJOR - - 2085.91 and must close below that price on Wednesday, January 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2081.70

minor - - 2060.79

MAJOR - - 2041.59 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 2021.14

minor - - 2002.01

MAJOR - - 1957.38 and must close above that price on Friday, January 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The DECEMBER Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN since 11/4/15
A close above 1176.10 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...
A close above 1142.70 would turn the BTIT from down to neutral...
The main model is now short the December gold from 1173.90 as of Monday, October 19th... we now have more than a $100.00 per gold gain on this short position...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1065.00...

This has been one sweet short position... and still no buy signal on the horizon...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close above 1095.80 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Good up spikes in the LT graph today, but no buy signal yet... it's always wise to wait for the confirmation that a low is legitimately in place...

image (3)
image (4)

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1125.75

MAJOR - - 1095.82 and must above that price on Monday, November 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1065.00

MAJOR - - 530.11 (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, very odd...

This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Monday, November 30th

"I hate weekends because there is no stock market."

* * * Rene Rivkin

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The VP Price Map will replace the mid day updates, or most of them... this way, you'll never have to wonder if you missed any updates... the VP map tells you everything you need to know and you already know the two key rules for using the VP points to position yourself... this will only make you a much more savvy trader...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL since 11/9/15

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...

A close above 2098.70 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up... today's close is within 10 points of this price...

A close below 1886.93 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, it is a trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Now flat from 2077.60 as of Monday, November 9th, 2015... 3 trades completed, a total gain of 104.90 SP points...

The main model is now long the December SP from 2085.90 as of Wednesday, November 25th...

This market continues to struggle moving higher, but the major VP at 2085.91 continues to have a hungry crocodile grip on this market, it has been nearly a month since this grip took hold... we had a sell signal early this morning when the market rallied above the next higher VP and then sold off... but, the market then sold down below the next lower VP and closed again above it... this leaves the initial long position intact...

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2089.50 for December...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 2086.00 in the December contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map for additional VP points that may trigger a buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... enter a new short position with a close below 2086.00 but not below 2081.00... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A major VP at 2085.91...

Please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 36 trades for a net gain of 235.30 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

This market is moving sideways while the NT indicator is working off an overbought condition... this is considered bullish...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Again today, no noticeable movement in the LT graph at all today, and the red line is now exactly unchanged today for five consecutive market days, the red line value is at 1.05 and has not changed since last Friday...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map, this VP map will replace the need for mid day updates which many of you have not been able to see or receive during your busy mid day schedule... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below... this would also eliminate the risk of my not sending out any mid day updates due to power failures, running errands, or any other possible reason... this way, since you already know the very simple rules, you would become a more efficient trader without depending on mid day correspondence which is always subject to loss or nondelivery...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2164.49 and must close below that price on Tuesday, February 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.56 and must close below that price on Tuesday, January 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2117.21

minor - - 2093.66

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2089.50

MAJOR - - 2085.91 and must close below that price on Wednesday, January 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2060.79

MAJOR - - 2041.59 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 2021.14

minor - - 2002.01

MAJOR - - 1957.38 and must close above that price on Friday, January 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The DECEMBER Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN since 11/4/15
A close above 1176.10 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...
A close above 1142.70 would turn the BTIT from down to neutral...
The main model is now short the December gold from 1173.90 as of Monday, October 19th... we now have more than a $100.00 per gold gain on this short position...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1056.90...

This has been one sweet short position... and still no buy signal on the horizon...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close above 1095.80 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

It looks like the gold market is again back in the intensive care unit for more work...

image (3)
image (4)

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1125.75

MAJOR - - 1095.82 and must above that price on Monday, November 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1056.90

MAJOR - - 530.11 (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, very odd...

This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, November 27th

"Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy."

* * * Warren Buffett

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

THE MARKETS ARE CLOSED TOMORROW TO OBSERVE THANKSGIVING DAY AND WILL OPEN FOR ON FRIDAY UNTIL 1 PM NEW YORK TIME (DST)...

The VP Price Map will replace the mid day updates, or most of them... this way, you'll never have to wonder if you missed any updates... the VP map tells you everything you need to know and you already know the two key rules for using the VP points to position yourself... this will only make you a much more savvy trader...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS:  NEUTRAL since 11/9/15

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...

A close above 2102.68 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...

A close below 1886.93 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, it is a trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Now flat from 2077.60 as of Monday, November 9th, 2015... 3 trades completed, a total gain of 104.90 SP points...

The main model is now long the December SP from 2085.90 as of Wednesday, November 25th...

This market continues to struggle moving higher, but the major VP at 2085.91 continues to have a hungry crocodile grip on this market, it has been nearly a month since this grip took hold...

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2088.00 for December...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 2086.00 in the December contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map for additional VP points that may trigger a buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... enter a new short position with a close below 2086.00 but not below 2081.00... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A major VP at 2085.91...

Please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 36 trades for a net gain of 235.30 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Despite a sideways market today, the NT indicator continues moving lower...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

No noticeable movement in the LT graph at all today, and the red line is exactly unchanged today for four consecutive days, the red line value is at 1.05 and has not changed since last Friday...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map, this VP map will replace the need for mid day updates which many of you have not been able to see or receive during your busy mid day schedule... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below... this would also eliminate the risk of my not sending out any mid day updates due to power failures, running errands, or any other possible reason... this way, since you already know the very simple rules, you would become a more efficient trader without depending on mid day correspondence which is always subject to loss or nondelivery...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2164.49 and must close below that price on Tuesday, February 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.56 and must close below that price on Tuesday, January 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2117.21

minor - - 2093.66

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2088.00

MAJOR - - 2085.91 and must close below that price on Wednesday, January 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2060.79

MAJOR - - 2041.59 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 2021.14

minor - - 2002.01

MAJOR - - 1995.12 and must close below that price on Monday, December 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1957.38 and must close above that price on Friday, January 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1956.25

The DECEMBER Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN since 11/4/15
A close above 1176.10 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...
A close above 1142.70 would turn the BTIT from down to neutral...
The main model is now short the December gold from 1173.90 as of Monday, October 19th... we now have more than a $100.00 per gold gain on this short position...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1070.30...

It's good to stay short this market for now... although this market is now extremely over sold... today, this market is again below the major downside VP at 1095.82...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close above 1095.80 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Today, we can see the blue line turn away from the all important red line... not encouraging...

image (3)
image (4)

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1125.75

MAJOR - - 1095.82 and must above that price on Monday, November 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1070.30

MAJOR - - 530.11 (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, very odd...

This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, November 25th

"Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy."

* * * Warren Buffett

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The VP Price Map will replace the mid day updates, or most of them... this way, you'll never have to wonder if you missed any updates... the VP map tells you everything you need to know and you already know the two key rules for using the VP points to position yourself... this will only make you a much more savvy trader...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL since 11/9/15

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...

A close above 2102.68 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...

A close below 1886.93 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, it is a trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Now flat from 2077.60 as of Monday, November 9th, 2015... 3 trades completed, a total gain of 104.90 SP points...

The main model is now short the December SP from 2086.00 as of Monday, November 23rd...

This market continues to struggle moving higher, but the major VP at 2085.91 continues to have a remarkably tight grip on this market...

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2085.20 for December...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close above 2085.90 in the December contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map for additional VP points that may trigger a buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... enter a new long position with a close above 2085.90 but not above 2091.90... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day... this easy strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A major VP at 2085.91...

Please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 36 trades for a net gain of 235.30 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator still creeps lower...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph also continues lower today even with the market slightly higher...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map, this VP map will replace the need for mid day updates which many of you have not been able to see or receive during your busy mid day schedule... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below... this would also eliminate the risk of my not sending out any mid day updates due to power failures, running errands, or any other possible reason... this way, since you already know the very simple rules, you would become a more efficient trader without depending on mid day correspondence which is always subject to loss or nondelivery...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2164.49 and must close below that price on Tuesday, February 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.56 and must close below that price on Tuesday, January 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2117.21

minor - - 2093.66

MAJOR - - 2085.91 and must close below that price on Wednesday, January 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2085.20

minor - - 2060.79

MAJOR - - 2041.59 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 2021.14

minor - - 2002.01

MAJOR - - 1995.12 and must close below that price on Monday, December 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1957.38 and must close above that price on Friday, January 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1956.25

The DECEMBER Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN since 11/4/15
A close above 1176.10 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...
A close above 1142.70 would turn the BTIT from down to neutral...
The main model is now short the December gold from 1173.90 as of Monday, October 19th... we now have more than a $100.00 per gold gain on this short position...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1075.20...

It's good to stay short this market for now... although this market is now extremely over sold... today, this market is again below the major downside VP at 1095.82...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close above 1095.80 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

A nice uptick today, clearly signs of life, but still no confirmation that the bottom is in place...

image (3)
image (4)

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1125.75

MAJOR - - 1095.82 and must above that price on Monday, November 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1075.20

MAJOR - - 530.11 (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, very odd...

This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, November 24th

"I wish I had said that."

* * * Anonymous

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The VP Price Map will replace the mid day updates, or most of them... this way, you'll never have to wonder if you missed any updates... the VP map tells you everything you need to know and you already know the two key rules for using the VP points to position yourself... this will only make you a much more savvy trader...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL since 11/9/15

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...

A close above 2102.68 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...

A close below 1886.93 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, it is a trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Now flat from 2077.60 as of Monday, November 9th, 2015... 3 trades completed, a total gain of 104.90 SP points...

The main model is now short the December SP from 2086.00 as of Monday, November 23rd...

This market continues to struggle moving higher, but the major VP at 2085.91 continues to have a tight grip on this market...

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2083.50 for December...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close above 2085.90 in the December contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map for additional VP points that may trigger a buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... enter a new long position with a close above 2085.90 but not above 2091.90... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day... this easy strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A major VP at 2085.91...

Please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 36 trades for a net gain of 235.30 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator continues lower...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Modest sell spikes in the LT graph today... the main model is again short as of today, so let's keep an eye on this, all three key lines are still in overbought territory...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map, this VP map will replace the need for mid day updates which many of you have not been able to see or receive during your busy mid day schedule... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below... this would also eliminate the risk of my not sending out any mid day updates due to power failures, running errands, or any other possible reason... this way, since you already know the very simple rules, you would become a more efficient trader without depending on mid day correspondence which is always subject to loss or nondelivery...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2164.49 and must close below that price on Tuesday, February 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.56 and must close below that price on Tuesday, January 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2117.21

minor - - 2093.66

MAJOR - - 2085.91 and must close below that price on Wednesday, January 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2083.50

minor - - 2060.79

MAJOR - - 2041.59 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 2021.14

minor - - 2002.01

MAJOR - - 1995.12 and must close below that price on Monday, December 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1957.38 and must close above that price on Friday, January 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1956.25

The DECEMBER Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN since 11/4/15
A close above 1176.10 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...
A close above 1142.70 would turn the BTIT from down to neutral...
The main model is now short the December gold from 1173.90 as of Monday, October 19th... we now have more than a $100.00 per gold gain on this short position...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1068.00...

It's good to stay short this market for now... although this market is now extremely over sold... today, this market is again below the major downside VP at 1095.82...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close above 1095.80 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This LT graph continues to look heavy and searching for a bottom, but nothing yet...

image (3)
image (4)

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1125.75

MAJOR - - 1095.82 and must above that price on Monday, November 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1068.00

MAJOR - - 530.11 (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, very odd...

This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Monday, November 23rd

"The only person who never makes a mistake is the person who never does anything."

* * * Anonymous

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The VP Price Map will replace the mid day updates, or most of them... this way, you'll never have to wonder if you missed any updates... the VP map tells you everything you need to know and you already know the two key rules for using the VP points to position yourself... this will only make you a much more savvy trader...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL since 11/9/15

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...

A close above 2102.68 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...

A close below 1886.93 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, it is a trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Now flat from 2077.60 as of Monday, November 9th, 2015... 3 trades completed, a total gain of 104.90 SP points...

The main model is now long the December SP from 2085.90 as of Friday, November 20th...

This market continues to struggle moving higher, but it still continues moving higher, nonetheless... the market sold down from the 2093 VP only to trade down below and then close above the 2085 VP, therefore the main model remains long...

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2088.00 for December...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 2086.00 in the December contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map for additional VP points that may trigger a buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... enter a new short position with a close below 2086.00 but not below 2080.00... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day... this easy strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A major VP at 2085.91...

Please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself when the opportunity presents itself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 36 trades for a net gain of 235.30 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

A big sell spike in the NT indicator today, but this is near term and is likely working off some very heavy numbers from earlier this week... at this point, I'm really not too concerned...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph looks promisingly bullish, all lines are moving higher, the blue line is now above the red line and the red line is also now moving higher... the red line continues to remain in somewhat overbought territory, but if this rally has legitimate legs, then this market can remain overbought for an extended time while still moving higher... remain overbought is characteristic of a bull market rally... appearing constantly overbought is what tempts bears into taking new short positions... the main model will also take a short position but only upon a legitimate signal...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map, this VP map will replace the need for mid day updates which many of you have not been able to see or receive during your busy mid day schedule... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below... this would also eliminate the risk of my not sending out any mid day updates due to power failures, running errands, or any other possible reason... this way, since you already know the very simple rules, you would become a more efficient trader without depending on mid day correspondence which is always subject to loss or nondelivery...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2164.49 and must close below that price on Tuesday, February 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.56 and must close below that price on Tuesday, January 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2117.21

minor - - 2093.66

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2088.00

MAJOR - - 2085.91 and must close below that price on Wednesday, January 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2061.72

minor - - 2060.79

MAJOR - - 2049.15 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2041.59 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 2021.14

minor - - 2002.01

MAJOR - - 1995.12 and must close below that price on Monday, December 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1957.38 and must close above that price on Friday, January 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1956.25

The DECEMBER Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN since 11/4/15
A close above 1176.10 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...
A close above 1142.70 would turn the BTIT from down to neutral...
The main model is now short the December gold from 1173.90 as of Monday, October 19th... we now have more than a $100.00 per gold gain on this short position...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1076.70...

It's good to stay short this market for now... although this market is now extremely over sold... today, this market is again below the major downside VP at 1095.82... not a good sign...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close above 1095.80 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This market is having a terrible time attempting any rally, apparently the firm U.S. Dollar is taking its toll on this metal... also, we see modest sell spikes again today in this LT graph... just stay short...

image (3)
image (4)

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1125.75

MAJOR - - 1095.82 and must above that price on Monday, November 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1076.70

MAJOR - - 530.11 (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, very odd...

This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, November 20th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does."

* * * John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The VP Price Map will replace the mid day updates, or most of them... this way, you'll never have to wonder if you missed any updates... the VP map tells you everything you need to know and you already know the two key rules for using the VP points to position yourself... this will only make you a much more savvy trader...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS:  NEUTRAL since 11/9/15

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...

A close above 2105.86 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...

A close below 1886.93 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, it is a trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Now flat from 2077.60 as of Monday, November 9th, 2015... 3 trades completed, a total gain of 104.90 SP points...

The main model is now short the December SP from 2086.00 as of Thursday, November 19th...

Today's high was 2086.20, so the major VP nailed this market for now...

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2079.00 for December...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close above 2085.90 in the December contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map for additional VP points that may trigger a buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... enter a new short position with a close below 2061.80 but not below 2055.80... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day... this easy strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A major VP at 2085.91...

Please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 36 trades for a net gain of 235.30 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator is now well into overbought territory, but no sell spike here...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Modest sell spikes in the LT graph... and the red line is completely flat and sideways today... this market is waiting for direction...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map, this VP map will replace the need for mid day updates which many of you have not been able to see or receive during your busy mid day schedule... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below... this would also eliminate the risk of my not sending out any mid day updates due to power failures, running errands, or any other possible reason... this way, since you already know the very simple rules, you would become a more efficient trader without depending on mid day correspondence which is always subject to loss or nondelivery...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2164.49 and must close below that price on Tuesday, February 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.56 and must close below that price on Tuesday, January 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2117.21

minor - - 2093.66

MAJOR - - 2085.91 and must close below that price on Wednesday, January 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2079.00

minor - - 2061.72

minor - - 2060.79

MAJOR - - 2049.15 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2041.59 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 2021.14

minor - - 2002.01

MAJOR - - 1995.12 and must close below that price on Monday, December 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1957.38 and must close above that price on Friday, January 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1956.25

The DECEMBER Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN since 11/4/15
A close above 1176.10 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...
A close above 1142.70 would turn the BTIT from down to neutral...
The main model is now short the December gold from 1173.90 as of Monday, October 19th... we now have more than a $100.00 per gold gain on this short position...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1081.40...

It's good to stay short this market for now... although this market is now extremely over sold... today, this market is again below the major downside VP at 1095.82... not a good sign...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close above 1095.80 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Clearly, impressive up spikes in this LT graph today, we only need confirmation from the market itself...

image (3)
image (4)

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1125.75

MAJOR - - 1095.82 and must above that price on Monday, November 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1081.40

MAJOR - - 530.11 (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, very odd...

This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Thursday, November 19th

“When you blame others, you give up the power to change."

* * * Robert Anthony

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The VP Price Map will replace the mid day updates, or most of them... this way, you'll never have to wonder if you missed any updates... the VP map tells you everything you need to know and you already know the two key rules for using the VP points to position yourself... this will only make you a much more savvy trader...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS:  NEUTRAL since 11/9/15

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...

A close above 2105.86 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...

A close below 1886.93 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, it is a trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Now flat from 2077.60 as of Monday, November 9th, 2015... 3 trades completed, a total gain of 104.90 SP points...

The main model is now short the December SP from 2061.70 as of Tuesday, November 17th...

We took a sell signal and went short with the rally above and then break below 2061.70, but the market traded down below 2049.20 only to close exactly at 2049.00... therefore, we are currently still short this market from this morning... considering the pictures of the NT and LT graphs, this market appears poised for a big move, the direction has yet to be determined, but follow the VP signals and you'll be on board early in that move...

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2080.00 for December...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close below 2061.80 in the December contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map for additional VP points that may trigger a buy signal, watch for the nearby overhead VP at 2085.91...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... enter a new short position with a close below 2061.80 but not below 2055.80... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day... this easy strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A VP at 2061.72 and at 2085.91...

Please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 36 trades for a net gain of 235.30 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

A spectacular uptick in the NT today...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Huge upticks here also, in fact the blue line has now crossed above the red line... this rally could continue for some time...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map, this VP map will replace the need for mid day updates which many of you have not been able to see or receive during your busy mid day schedule... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below... this would also eliminate the risk of my not sending out any mid day updates due to power failures, running errands, or any other possible reason... this way, since you already know the very simple rules, you would become a more efficient trader without depending on mid day correspondence which is always subject to loss or nondelivery...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2164.49 and must close below that price on Tuesday, February 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.56 and must close below that price on Tuesday, January 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2117.21

minor - - 2093.66

MAJOR - - 2085.91 and must close below that price on Wednesday, January 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2080.00

minor - - 2061.72

minor - - 2060.79

MAJOR - - 2049.15 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2041.59 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 2021.14

minor - - 2002.01

MAJOR - - 1995.12 and must close below that price on Monday, December 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1957.38 and must close above that price on Friday, January 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1956.25

The DECEMBER Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN since 11/4/15
A close above 1176.10 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...
A close above 1142.70 would turn the BTIT from down to neutral...
The main model is now short the December gold from 1173.90 as of Monday, October 19th... we now have more than a $100.00 per gold gain on this short position...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1070.00...

It's good to stay short this market for now... although this market is now extremely over sold... today, this market is again below the major downside VP at 1095.82... not a good sign...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close above 1095.80 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This LT graph looks ready to turn higher, it just needs confirmation from the market itself... the purple line has now been above the red line for several days consecutively... this is encouraging for a possible turn for this market, but it still needs the market to prove itself...

image (3)
image (4)

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1125.75

MAJOR - - 1095.82 and must above that price on Monday, November 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1070.00

MAJOR - - 530.11 (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, very odd...

This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, November 18th

“When you blame others, you give up the power to change."

 

* * *   Robert Anthony

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...
The VP Price Map will replace the mid day updates, or most of them...  this way, you'll never have to wonder if you missed any updates...  the VP map tells you everything you need to know and you already know the two key rules for using the VP points to position yourself...  this will only make you a much more savvy trader...  
The December SP Futures
IMPORTANT NOTE:
 
USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS...  AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...
 
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS:  
NEUTRAL since 11/9/15
 
The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices...  when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP...  when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN...  the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...
 
A close above 2105.86 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...   
 
A close below 1886.93 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down... 
 
THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY
 
A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down...  when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...
 
The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, it is a trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring...  be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...  
The BTIT current trade position:  Now flat from 2077.60 as of Monday, November 9th, 2015...  3  trades completed, a total gain of 104.90 SP points...  
 
The main model is now short the December SP from 2061.70 as of Tuesday, November 17th...  
 
We took a sell signal and went short with the rally above and then break below 2061.70, but the market traded down below 2049.20 only to close exactly at 2049.00...  therefore, we are currently still short this market from this morning...  considering the pictures of the NT and LT graphs, this market appears poised for a big move, the direction has yet to be determined, but follow the VP signals and you'll be on board early in that move...
 
It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...
 
 
The last trade as of this writing is at 2049.00 for December...  
 
The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it.  This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend...  also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. 
 
TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:
 
For Wednesday, a close above 2049.10 in the December contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...  be sure to review the VP price map for additional VP points that may trigger a buy signal...
 
For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market...  enter a new long position with a close above 2049.10 but not above 2055.10...  also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day...  this easy strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...  of course, any questions, please just ask...
Rationale:  A VP at 2049.15...  
 
Please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates...  tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...
 
Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal???  Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules...  I use it myself...
 
The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals...  this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition...  please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...  the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...  I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...
 
The Hoban Rule Performance History:
 
The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 36 trades for a net gain of 235.30 SP points...  this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals...  of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals...  if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator  (the red line)
Follow through on yesterday's buy spike...
image
The LT (Long Term) indicator
Follow through on yesterday's buy spike here, as well...
image (1)
image (2)
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
THE VP PRICE MAP 
 
The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...  
 
PLEASE NOTE:  It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map, this VP map will replace the need for mid day updates which many of you have not been able to see or receive during your busy mid day schedule...  

the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...  this would also eliminate the risk of my not sending out any mid day updates due to power failures, running errands, or any other possible reason...  this way, since you already know the very simple rules, you would become a more efficient trader without depending on mid day correspondence which is always subject to loss or nondelivery...

 
The Main Model Trade Rules:
 
1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2)  Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...
 
MAJOR - - 2164.49
and must close below that price on
Tuesday, February 2nd
to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2130.56
and must close below that price on
Tuesday, January 26th
to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2117.21
minor - - 2093.66
MAJOR - - 2085.91
and must close below that price on
Wednesday, January 13th
to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2061.72
minor - - 2060.79


MAJOR - -  2049.15 
and must close above that price on
Tuesday, December 1st
to confirm a new main model buy signal... 
TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2049.00
MAJOR - -  2041.59 
and must close above that price on
Tuesday, December 8th
to confirm a new main model buy signal... 
minor - - 2021.14
minor - - 2002.01

MAJOR - -   1995.12 

and must close below that price on
Monday, December 7th
to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - -  1957.38 
and must close above that price on
Friday, January 8th
to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1956.25
The DECEMBER Gold futures 
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS:   DOWN since 11/4/15 
A close above 1176.10 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...
A close above 1142.70 would turn the BTIT from down to neutral...
The main model is now short the December gold from 1173.90 as of Monday, October 19th...  we now have more than a $100.00 per gold gain on this short position...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1069.10...  
 
It's good to stay short this market for now...  although this market is now extremely over sold...  today, this market is again below the major downside VP at 1095.82...  not a good sign...
 
TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:
For Wednesday, a close above 1095.80 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...   also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates...  tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...
 
The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...  
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
Today, the LT graph is once again looking anemic...
image (3)
image (4)
THE VP PRICE MAP
 
The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market... 
 
The Main Model Trade Rules:
 
1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2)  Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1125.75
 
MAJOR - - 1095.82 and must above that price on Monday, November 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
 
TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1069.10
 
MAJOR - - 530.11  (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal...  yes, very odd...
 
This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...
 
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...  also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 
The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...  VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price...  all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...
 
The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it.  This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend...  also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.  Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time...  these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price...  at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend...  this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
THE HOBAN RULE
 
The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only...  using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...  
 
To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:
 
1)  The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and
 
2)  The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...
 
3)  Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...
 
Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information...   if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade...  or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF...  or you can simply take the trade the following morning...
 
However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...
 
In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:
 
1)  Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...
 
To exit the trade:
 
1)  Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price...  if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...
 
2)  If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...
 
3)  If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...
 
4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price...  but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...
 
Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close...  and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...
 
The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread
 
This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets...  this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points...  this spread generates profits regardless of market direction...  if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...
 
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

For Tuesday, November 17th

“When a man’s best friend is his dog, that dog has a problem."

* * * Edward Abby

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The VP Price Map will replace the mid day updates, or most of them... this way, you'll never have to wonder if you missed any updates... the VP map tells you everything you need to know and you already know the two key rules for using the VP points to position yourself... this will only make you a much more savvy trader...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL since 11/9/15

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...

A close above 2110.92 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...

A close below 1886.93 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT is largely a direction indicator and not a signal indicator, it is a trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring... be advised, the price swings are also significantly wider before the trend bias shifts so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current trade position: Now flat from 2077.60 as of Monday, November 9th, 2015... 3 trades completed, a total gain of 104.90 SP points...

The main model is now long the December SP from 2021.10 as of Monday, November 16th...

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2047.70 for December...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close below 2041.60 in the December contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map for additional VP points that may trigger a buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... enter a new short position with a close below 2041.60 but not below 2035.60... also, please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day... this easy strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

Rationale: A VP at 2041.59...

Please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level... I prefer to combine the Hoban Rule with the 1/3 Rule for more active market participation...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 36 trades for a net gain of 235.30 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

A solid buy spike today while in oversold territory...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Solid buy spikes today also in the LT graph...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map, this VP map will replace the need for mid day updates which many of you have not been able to see or receive during your busy mid day schedule... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below... this would also eliminate the risk of my not sending out any mid day updates due to power failures, running errands, or any other possible reason... this way, since you already know the very simple rules, you would become a more efficient trader without depending on mid day correspondence which is always subject to loss or nondelivery...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2164.49 and must close below that price on Tuesday, February 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.56 and must close below that price on Tuesday, January 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2117.21

minor - - 2093.66

MAJOR - - 2085.91 and must close below that price on Wednesday, January 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2061.09

minor - - 2060.79

MAJOR - - 2051.18 and must close above that price on Friday, November 27th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 2047.70

MAJOR - - 2041.59 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 2021.14

minor - - 2002.01

MAJOR - - 1995.12 and must close below that price on Monday, December 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1957.38 and must close above that price on Friday, January 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1956.25

The DECEMBER Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN since 11/4/15
A close above 1176.10 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...
A close above 1142.70 would turn the BTIT from down to neutral...
The main model is now short the December gold from 1173.90 as of Monday, October 19th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1081.40...

It's good to stay short this market for now... although this market is now extremely over sold... today, this market is again below the major downside VP at 1095.82... not a good sign...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close above 1095.80 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

The LT graph looks promising, but the market itself doesn't... I'll just wait for the signal and not jump ahead of the starting gun...

image (3)
image (4)

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1125.75

MAJOR - - 1095.82 and must above that price on Monday, November 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1081.40

minor - - 1067.04

MAJOR - - 530.11 (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, very odd...

This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

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