For Thursday, October 1st

"Worry never robs tomorrow of its sorrow, it only saps today of its joy."

* * * Leo Buscaglia

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...
NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, OCTOBER 1ST, I'LL BE RAISING THE SAILS AND BE PUTTING OUT TO SEA WITH THE TIDE... THEN, ONCE OUT IN OPEN WATERS, I WILL TRIM THE SAILS AND SET A STEADY COURSE DUE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO SAINT VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES AND BARBADOS FOR SOME FUN... I WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY OCTOBER, 11TH...
In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I have added additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to you for your kindness and permission... for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop and will resume again on Thursday, October 15th, this is 4 days after I return... this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you nearly another week of additional subscription time as a bonus...

Keep your eyes on the VP points and try to behave...

Many thanks...

PLEASE READ:

The VP Price Map will replace the mid day updates, or most of them... this way, you'll never have to wonder if you missed any updates... the VP map tells you everything you need to know and you already know the two key rules for using the VP points to position yourself... this will only make you a much more savvy trader...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN since 9/28/15

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...

A close above 2100.34 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...

A close above 1957.10 would turn the BTIT from down to neutral...

The BTIT turned down today at 1892.40, so the BTIT is now short from 1892.40

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The BTIT trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT current trade position: Now short from 1892.40 as of 9/28/15... 1 previous trade completed, a total gain of 99.90 SP points...

The main model is now long the December SP from 1871.10 as of Wednesday, September 30th...

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1904.20 for December...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close below 1897.50 in the December contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

Please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now currently flat... go short with a close below 1897.50 but not below 1891.50...

Rationale: The VP at 1897.409....

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 35 trades for a net gain of 243.30 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Good upside follow through in the NT indicator, and not yet over bought...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Very nice upside follow through in the LT graph today... considering the upward price thrust of this market today and the overall LT graph pattern, it suggests a legitimate and significant low may already be in place for the next bull rally which began today... this rally could have some serious legs...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map, this VP map will replace the need for mid day updates which many of you have not been able to see or receive during your busy mid day schedule... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below... this would also eliminate the risk of my not sending out any mid day updates due to power failures, running errands, or any other possible reason... this way, since you already know the very simple rules, you would become a more efficient trader without depending on mid day correspondence which is always subject to loss or nondelivery...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2085.91 and must close below that price on Wednesday, January 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2021.14

MAJOR - - 1973.42 and must close below that price on Tuesday, November 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1942.101

minor - - 1930.86
minor - - 1920.68
TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1904.20
MAJOR - - 1897.409 and must close above that price on Friday, November 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal... KEY VP
minor - - 1894.72
minor - - 1891.52
minor - - 1883.68
MAJOR - - 1883.49 and must close above that price on Tuesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1871.11 and must close above that price on Thursday, November 5th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1845.15 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1832.56 and must close above that price on Thursday, December 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1822.04
minor - - 1818.98
MAJOR - - 1741.71 and must close above that price on Monday, January 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The DECEMBER Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL since 9/30/15
A close below 1122.70 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...
A close below 1081.40 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...
The main model is now short the December gold from 1126.90 as of Wednesday, September 30th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1114.30...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close above 1145.60 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This LT graph shows the weight of this market bearing upon it... they say there is no rest for the weary, and this market looks exhausted right now... maybe a double shot of strong espresso might help...

image (3)
image (4)

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1269.09 and must close below that price on Monday, September 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1241.16 and must close below that price on Tuesday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1218.51

minor - - 1198.69 TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE

minor - - 1198.69 TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1114.30

minor - - 1067.04

MAJOR - - 1023.99 and must close above that price on Monday, October 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 530.11 (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, very odd...

This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, September 30th

"One way to end up with $1 million with these markets is to start with $2 million."

* * * Ralph Seger

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS
On Thursday, October 1st, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to clear the cobwebs and recharge the batteries... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Wednesday evening of that week... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday, October 12th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop and will resume again on Thursday, October 15th, this is 4 days after I return... this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you nearly another week of additional subscription time as a bonus...

Important Note:

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if those automatic renewal invoices we not canceled, then you would receive the renewal invoice prematurely and without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, so this that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a one time cost lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

PLEASE READ:

The VP Price Map will replace the mid day updates, or most of them... this way, you'll never have to wonder if you missed any updates... the VP map tells you everything you need to know and you already know the two key rules for using the VP points to position yourself... this will only make you a much more savvy trader...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN since 9/28/15

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...

A close above 2100.34 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...

A close above 2011.00 would turn the BTIT from down to neutral...

The BTIT turned down today at 1892.40, so the BTIT is now short from 1892.40

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The BTIT trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT current trade position: Now short from 1892.40 as of 9/28/15... 1 previous trade completed, a total gain of 99.90 SP points...

The main model is now short the December SP from 1930.90 as of Friday, September 25th...

Today, the market traded down through several VP points and closed well below the major VP of 1883.49...

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1875.00 for December...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close above 1871.10 in the December contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

Yes, the market closed today above this price, so the buy signal will be triggered and activated if the market opens this evening above this price...

Please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now currently flat... go long with a close above 1871.10 but not above 1877.10...

Rationale: The major VP at 1871.11, this is a new VP now emerged....

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 35 trades for a net gain of 243.30 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Good buy spike in the NT indicator today...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Buy spikes in deeply oversold territory... it looks like a rally may begin here...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map, this VP map will replace the need for mid day updates which many of you have not been able to see or receive during your busy mid day schedule... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below... this would also eliminate the risk of my not sending out any mid day updates due to power failures, running errands, or any other possible reason... this way, since you already know the very simple rules, you would become a more efficient trader without depending on mid day correspondence which is always subject to loss or nondelivery...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2043.99 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2039.69 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 18th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2016.42 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2001.32

minor - - 1999.42

minor - - 1983.15

minor - - 1930.86
minor - - 1920.68
MAJOR - - 1897.409 and must close above that price on Friday, November 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1894.72
minor - - 1891.52
minor - - 1883.68
MAJOR - - 1883.49 and must close above that price on Tuesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1875.00
MAJOR - - 1871.11 and must close above that price on Thursday, November 5th to confirm a new main model buy signal... KEY VP
MAJOR - - 1845.15 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1832.56 and must close above that price on Thursday, December 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1822.04
minor - - 1818.98
MAJOR - - 1741.71 and must close above that price on Monday, January 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The DECEMBER Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 9/18/15
A close below 1122.70 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...
A close below 1081.40 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...
The main model is now long the December gold from 1118.40 as of Thursday, September 17th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1126.90...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close below 1126.90 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Yesterday, the purple line crossed below the red line, today the blue line did the same... and also today, the red line turned downward... if this market doesn't stage a respectable rally tomorrow, then we may be looking at yet another hard down move for gold...

image (3)
image (4)

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1269.09 and must close below that price on Monday, September 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1241.16 and must close below that price on Tuesday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1218.51

minor - - 1198.69 TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE

minor - - 1198.69 TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1126.90

minor - - 1067.04

MAJOR - - 1023.99 and must close above that price on Monday, October 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 530.11 (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, very odd...

This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, September 29th

"One way to end up with $1 million with these markets is to start with $2 million."

* * * Ralph Seger

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS
On Thursday, October 1st, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to clear the cobwebs and recharge the batteries... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Wednesday evening of that week... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday, October 12th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop and will resume again on Thursday, October 15th, this is 4 days after I return... this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you nearly another week of additional subscription time as a bonus...

Important Note:

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if those automatic renewal invoices we not canceled, then you would receive the renewal invoice prematurely and without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, so this that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a one time cost lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

PLEASE READ:

The VP Price Map will replace the mid day updates, or most of them... this way, you'll never have to wonder if you missed any updates... the VP map tells you everything you need to know and you already know the two key rules for using the VP points to position yourself... this will only make you a much more savvy trader...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN since 9/28/15

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...

A close above 2100.34 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...

A close above 2011.00 would turn the BTIT from down to neutral...

The BTIT turned dow ntoday at 1892.40, so the BTIT is now short from 1892.40

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The BTIT trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT current trade position: Now short from 1892.40 as of 9/28/15... 1 previous trade completed, a total gain of 99.90 SP points...

The main model is now short the December SP from 1930.90 as of Friday, September 25th...

Today, the market traded down through several VP points and closed well below the major VP of 1883.49...

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1874.20 for December...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close above 1883.40 in the December contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

Please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now currently flat... go long with a close above 1883.40 but not above 1889.40...

Rationale: The major VP at 1883.49....

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 35 trades for a net gain of 243.30 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Sell spike today, but already in oversold territory, so this sell spike is less reliable...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph is once again in deeply oversold territory...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map, this VP map will replace the need for mid day updates which many of you have not been able to see or receive during your busy mid day schedule... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below... this would also eliminate the risk of my not sending out any mid day updates due to power failures, running errands, or any other possible reason... this way, since you already know the very simple rules, you would become a more efficient trader without depending on mid day correspondence which is always subject to loss or nondelivery...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2043.99 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2039.69 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 18th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2016.42 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2001.32

minor - - 1999.42

minor - - 1983.15

minor - - 1930.86
minor - - 1920.68
MAJOR - - 1897.409 and must close above that price on Friday, November 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1891.52
minor - - 1883.68
MAJOR - - 1883.49 and must close above that price on Tuesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal... KEY VP
TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1874.20
MAJOR - - 1845.15 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1832.56 and must close above that price on Thursday, December 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1822.04
minor - - 1818.98
MAJOR - - 1741.71 and must close above that price on Monday, January 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The DECEMBER Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 9/18/15
A close below 1122.70 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...
A close below 1081.40 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...
The main model is now long the December gold from 1118.40 as of Thursday, September 17th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1131.60...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close below 1114.70 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This LT graph is again looking rather heavy and toppy... the purple line has now crossed down below the red line for the first time in a while... this is a warning flag...

image (3)
image (4)

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1269.09 and must close below that price on Monday, September 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1241.16 and must close below that price on Tuesday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1218.51

minor - - 1198.69 TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE

minor - - 1198.69 TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1131.60

minor - - 1067.04

MAJOR - - 1023.99 and must close above that price on Monday, October 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 530.11 (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, very odd...

This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Monday, September 28th

"One way to end up with $1 million with these markets is to start with $2 million."

* * * Ralph Seger

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Thursday, October 1st, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to clear the cobwebs and recharge the batteries... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Wednesday evening of that week... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday, October 12th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop and will resume again on Thursday, October 15th, this is 4 days after I return... this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you nearly another week of additional subscription time as a bonus...

Important Note:

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if those automatic renewal invoices we not canceled, then you would receive the renewal invoice prematurely and without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, so this that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a one time cost lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

PLEASE READ:

The VP Price Map will replace the mid day updates, or most of them... this way, you'll never have to wonder if you missed any updates... the VP map tells you everything you need to know and you already know the two key rules for using the VP points to position yourself... this will only make you a much more savvy trader...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS:
NEUTRAL since 8/27/15

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...
A close above 2100.34 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...

A close below 1891.101 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The BTIT trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT current trade position: Now flat as of 8/27/15... 1 trade completed, a total gain of 99.90 SP points...

The main model is now short the December SP from 1930.90 as of Friday, September 25th...

We had a triggered buy signal today, but then the market rallied above the next higher VP and closed below it, therefore the main model is now short again as of this afternoon with what could be considered a day trade long position, although day trade positions are never intended...

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1918.50 for December...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, pending the market moving through another VP point, a close above 1920.60 in the December contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

Please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now currently flat... go long Monday with a close above 1920.60 but not above 1926.60...

Rationale: The minor VP at 1920.68....

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 35 trades for a net gain of 243.30 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Absolutely no movement at all in the NT indicator for today...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

No movement at all with the LT graph today, either...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map, this VP map will replace the need for mid day updates which many of you have not been able to see or receive during your busy mid day schedule... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below... this would also eliminate the risk of my not sending out any mid day updates due to power failures, running errands, or any other possible reason... this way, since you already know the very simple rules, you would become a more efficient trader without depending on mid day correspondence which is always subject to loss or nondelivery...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2043.99 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2039.69 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 18th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2016.42 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2001.32

minor - - 1999.42

minor - - 1983.15

minor - - 1930.86
minor - - 1920.68 KEY VP
TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1918.50
MAJOR - - 1897.409 and must close above that price on Friday, November 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1891.52
minor - - 1883.68
MAJOR - - 1883.49 and must close above that price on Tuesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1845.15 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1832.56 and must close above that price on Thursday, December 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1822.04
minor - - 1818.98
MAJOR - - 1741.71 and must close above that price on Monday, January 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The DECEMBER Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 9/18/15
A close below 1103.00 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...
A close below 1081.40 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...
The main model is now long the December gold from 1118.40 as of Thursday, September 17th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1145.60...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 1114.70 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

The LT graph shows a market a bit tired of the rally but still holding nicely above the red line which is also still moving higher... maybe this market is only pausing before the next lurch higher...

image (3)
image (4)

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1269.09 and must close below that price on Monday, September 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1241.16 and must close below that price on Tuesday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1218.51

minor - - 1198.69 TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE

minor - - 1198.69 TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1145.60

minor - - 1067.04

MAJOR - - 1023.99 and must close above that price on Monday, October 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 530.11 (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, very odd...

This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, September 25th

"An investor without investment objectives is like a traveler without a destination."

* * * Ralph Seger

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...
NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS
 
On Thursday, October 1st, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to clear the cobwebs and recharge the batteries...  evening briefings will be delivered to you on Wednesday evening of that week...  and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday, October 12th...  this is a ten day break away from the markets...  as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...  
 
In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission...  for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop and will resume again on Thursday, October 15th, this is 4 days after I return...  this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you nearly another week of additional subscription time as a bonus...   
 
Important Note:
 
For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription...  if those automatic renewal invoices we not canceled, then you would receive the renewal invoice prematurely and without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, so this that has to be done manually by me...
 
If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a one time cost lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it...  this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...
 
If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...
 
Many thanks...
 
The VP Price Map will replace the mid day updates, or most of them...  this way, you'll never have to wonder if you missed any updates...  the VP map tells you everything you need to know and you already know the two key rules for using the VP points to position yourself...  this will only make you a much more savvy trader...  
So, did you notice that the low of the day came within only a few ticks of the major VP at 1897.409???  It was close, but not good enough for a legitimate buy signal...  maybe tomorrow...
The December SP Futures
 
IMPORTANT NOTE:
 
USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS...  AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...
 
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS:
 NEUTRAL since 8/27/15
 
The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices...  when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP...  when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN...  the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...
 
A close above 2100.34 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...
 
A close below 1891.101 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down... 
 
 
THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY
 
The BTIT trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring...  
 
A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down...  when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...
 
The BTIT current trade position:  Now flat as of 8/27/15...  1 trade completed, a total gain of 99.90 SP points...
 
The main model is now short the December SP from 1930.90 as of Wednesday, September 23rd...
 
It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...
 
 
The last trade as of this original writing is at 1919.00 for December...  
TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:
 
For Friday, pending another visit to that 1897.409 major VP, a close above 1930.80 in the December contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...  also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates...  tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...
 
For Hoban Rule traders, you are now currently flat...   go long tomorrow with a close above 1930.80 but not above 1936.80...
 
Rationale:  The minor VP at 1930.86....  
 
This Thursday afternoon SP update supersedes ALL previous SP briefings...
For Friday, a close above 1920.60 would confirm a new main model buy signal...  the market is currently trading at 1919.80... 
For Hoban Rule traders, you are now currently flat...   enter a new long position with a close above 1920.60 but not above 1926.60...
 
Rationale:  There is a VP point at 1920.68...   a close above this price tomorrow would be considered positive for this market...
 
ALSO VERY IMPORTANT:
 
Please review and consult daily with the new VP Price Map included in each and every evening briefing, as the market trades through these listed VP prices, it also automatically updates and revises the main model buy/sell trade strategy for that day...  the 1920.68 VP is already included in the VP price map, so this current morning update is not necessary provided that you already know the trade rules when the market approaches any VP price...  this VP price map will replace the mid day updates which many of you are not able to see or receive during your busy mid day schedule...  the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...  this would eliminate the risk of my not sending out any mid day updates due to power failures, running errands, or any other possible reason...  this way, you would already know the very simple rules without depending on additional correspondence which is always subject to loss or nondelivery...
 

 

 
Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal???  Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules...  I use it myself...
 
The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals...  this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition...  please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...  the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...
 
The Hoban Rule Performance History:
 
The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 35 trades for a net gain of 243.30 SP points...  this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals...  of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals...  if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator  (the red line)
Yesterday's modest buy spike has turned into something more definitive today...
image
The LT (Long Term) indicator
No spikes in today's LT graph...
image (1)
image (2)
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
THE VP PRICE MAP 
 
The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...  
 
PLEASE NOTE:  It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map, this VP map will replace the need for mid day updates which many of you have not been able to see or receive during your busy mid day schedule...  

the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...  this would also eliminate the risk of my not sending out any mid day updates due to power failures, running errands, or any other possible reason...  this way, since you already know the very simple rules, you would become a more efficient trader without depending on mid day correspondence which is always subject to loss or nondelivery...

 
The Main Model Trade Rules:
 
1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2)  Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...
 

MAJOR - -   2043.99 

and must close below that price on
Wednesday, November 11th
to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2039.69
and must close below that price on
Wednesday, November 18th
to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - -   2009.64 

and must close below that price on
Friday, October 30th
to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2001.32
 
minor - -  1999.42
minor - -  1982.69
minor - - 1930.86  
KEY VP

 

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1919.00

 

 

 

MAJOR - -   1897.409

and must close above that price on 

Friday, November 13th

to confirm a new main model 
buy signal...
minor - - 1891.52
minor - - 1883.68

 

MAJOR - -   1883.49

and must close above that price on 

Tuesday, November 11th

to confirm a new main model 
buy signal...

MAJOR - -   1845.15 

and must close above that price on 

Tuesday, December 1st  

to confirm a new main model 

buy signal... 

MAJOR - -   1832.56 and must close above that price on Thursday, December 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...  
minor - - 1822.04
minor - - 1818.98
MAJOR - - 1741.71 and must close above that price on Monday, January 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
The DECEMBER Gold futures 
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS:  UP since 9/18/15 
A close below 1103.00 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...
A close below 1081.40 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...
The main model is now long the December gold from 1118.40 as of Thursday, September 17th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1151.80...
 
TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:
For Friday, a close below 1114.70 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...   also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates...  tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...
 
The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...  
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
This LT graph shows a market that is now already somewhat over bought...
image (3)
image (4)
THE VP PRICE MAP
 
The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market...  those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals...  today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market... 
 
The Main Model Trade Rules:
 
1)  Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2)  Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1269.09 and must close below that price on Monday, September 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal... 
 
MAJOR - - 1241.16 and must close below that price on Tuesday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
 
minor - - 1218.51 
 
minor - - 1198.69  TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE 
minor - - 1198.69  TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE 
 
TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1151.90
 
minor - - 1067.04
 
MAJOR - - 1023.99 and must close above that price on Monday, October 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal... 
 
MAJOR - - 530.11  (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal...  yes, very odd...
 
This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...
 
 
 
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...  also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 
The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...  VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price...  all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...
 
The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it.  This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend...  also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change.  Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time...  these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price...  at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend...  this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
THE HOBAN RULE
 
The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only...  using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...  
 
To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:
 
1)  The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and
 
2)  The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...
 
3)  Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...
 
Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information...   if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade...  or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF...  or you can simply take the trade the following morning...
 
However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...
 
In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:
 
1)  Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...
 
To exit the trade:
 
1)  Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price...  if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...
 
2)  If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...
 
3)  If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...
 
4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price...  but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...
 
Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close...  and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...
 
The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread
 
This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets...  this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points...  this spread generates profits regardless of market direction...  if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...
 
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

For Thursday, September 24th

"An investor without investment objectives is like a traveler without a destination."

* * * Ralph Seger

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Thursday, October 1st, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to clear the cobwebs and recharge the batteries... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Wednesday evening of that week... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday, October 12th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop and will resume again on Thursday, October 15th, this is 4 days after I return... this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you nearly another week of additional subscription time as a bonus...

Important Note:

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if those automatic renewal invoices we not canceled, then you would receive the renewal invoice prematurely and without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, so this that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a one time cost lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

Okay, let's see a show of hands... how many of you are going crazy with this market, one minute it puts you to sleep and the next minutes it moves 1000 points... wow, everyone, huh??? Well, what a terrible market, but nothing is forever, so this market will eventually sustain a move again... the key is patience...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: Continue reading

For Wednesday, September 23rd

"An investor without investment objectives is like a traveler without a destination."

* * * Ralph Seger

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Thursday, October 1st, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to clear the cobwebs and recharge the batteries... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Wednesday evening of that week... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday, October 12th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop and will resume again on Thursday, October 15th, this is 4 days after I return... this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you nearly another week of additional subscription time as a bonus...

Important Note:

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if those automatic renewal invoices we not canceled, then you would receive the renewal invoice prematurely and without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, so this that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a one time cost lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

TODAY'S SUBSCRIBER'S QUESTION: This morning we have a VP at 1930 and at 1920. What if the market closes today at 1925? It would be above 1920 but below 1930.

MY REPLY: Very good question, thank you for asking... if the market closed at 1925 today after trading down below the 1920 VP, then this would be a confirmed buy signal... but, if the market closed at 1925 and the low of the day is at 1922, then this is not a buy signal since the 1920 VP was not activated and the 1930 VP is still above the close...

Post Question Comment:
As it turns out, we have a buy confirmation... how well it will hold up in this selling environment remains to be seen...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL since 8/27/15

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...

A close above 2100.34 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...

A close below 1889.32 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The BTIT trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT current trade position: Now flat as of 8/27/15... 1 trade completed, a total gain of 99.90 SP points...

The main model is now long the December SP from 1920.60 as of Tuesday, September 22nd...

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1931.00 for December...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close below 1930.90 in the December contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now currently flat... go short tomorrow with a close below 1930.90 but not below 1924.90...

Rationale: The minor VP at 1930.86....

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 35 trades for a net gain of 243.30 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT is moving into the over sold zone, but no buy spike visible...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph also shows no buy spike today...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map, this VP map will replace the need for mid day updates which many of you have not been able to see or receive during your busy mid day schedule... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below... this would also eliminate the risk of my not sending out any mid day updates due to power failures, running errands, or any other possible reason... this way, since you already know the very simple rules, you would become a more efficient trader without depending on mid day correspondence which is always subject to loss or nondelivery...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2271.71 and must close below that price on Friday, March 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2266.79 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2247.31 and must close below that price on Monday March 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2245.25 and must close below that price on Thursday, March 10th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2242.94 and must close below that price on Thursday, March 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2144.74

minor - - 2139.98

minor - - 2135.08
minor - - 2127.91

minor - - 2057.67
minor - - 2050.901
minor - - 2042.31
minor - - 2028.301
minor - - 2023.59
MAJOR - - 2013.95 and must close above that price on Friday, October 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2006.68 and must close above that price on Wednesday, October 14th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2002.48 and must close above that price on Wednesday, October 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1978.65 and must close above that price on Friday, September 25th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1931.00
minor - - 1930.86 KEY VP
minor - - 1920.68
MAJOR - - 1897.409 and must close above that price on Friday, November 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1893.46
minor - - 1891.52
minor - - 1883.68
MAJOR - - 1883.49 and must close above that price on Tuesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1863.15 and must close above that price on Thursday, October 29th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1845.15 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1832.56 and must close above that price on Thursday, December 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1822.04
minor - - 1818.98
MAJOR - - 1770.65 and must close above that price on Wednesday, November 25th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1741.71 and must close above that price on Monday, January 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The DECEMBER Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 9/18/15
A close below 1103.00 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...
A close below 1081.40 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...
The main model is now long the December gold from 1118.40 as of Thursday, September 17th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1123.80...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close below 1114.70 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This LT graph is looking toppy again... gold has trouble moving higher...

image (3)
image (4)

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1269.09 and must close below that price on Monday, September 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1241.16 and must close below that price on Tuesday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1218.51

minor - - 1198.69 TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE

minor - - 1198.69 TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1123.80

minor - - 1067.04

MAJOR - - 1023.99 and must close above that price on Monday, October 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 530.11 (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, very odd...

This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, September 22nd

"An investor without investment objectives is like a traveler without a destination."

* * * Ralph Seger

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Thursday, October 1st, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to clear the cobwebs and recharge the batteries... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Wednesday evening of that week... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday, October 12th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop and will resume again on Thursday, October 15th, this is 4 days after I return... this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you nearly another week of additional subscription time as a bonus...

Important Note:

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if those automatic renewal invoices we not canceled, then you would receive the renewal invoice prematurely and without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, so this that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a one time cost lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

TODAY'S SUBSCRIBER'S QUESTION: I think this market has topped out longer term, so is it really necessary to take buy signals along the way when I think the buy signals will not be profitable? During the rallies in the months previously, I've held long positions through some of the sell signals and did well, but now I would much rather remain short also for longer term.

MY REPLY: Great question, thank you for asking... the main model signal are presented in both directions for those who want to participate in the more near term trades, but if you personally believe this market is now destined to move significantly lower, then there is nothing to compel you or anyone from holding one's longer term position, long or short... this would apply to the longer term long positions as well as the longer term short positions... great question, I appreciate your asking, but just remember that a small counter trend move confirmed by a main model signal could easily morph into a more significant trend, so if you choose to ignore one or another signal, then please be careful and cautious...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL since 8/27/15

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...

A close above 2100.34 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...

A close below 1889.32 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The BTIT trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT current trade position: Now flat as of 8/27/15... 1 trade completed, a total gain of 99.90 SP points...

The main model is now short the December SP from 1978.70 as of Thursday, September 17th...

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1963.00 for December...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close above 1978.60 in the December contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now currently flat... place a sell limit order to go short at 1972.70 or better... if filled, place a stop to go flat at 1980.60... also, go long with a close above 1978.60 but not above 1984.60...

Rationale: The major VP at 1978.65... the deadline due date for this major VP is this coming Friday, so this market is attracted to this price right now more so than ever before...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 35 trades for a net gain of 243.30 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Despite the higher market today, the NT indicator continued moving lower... look for possible weakness overnight...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph is actually now beginning to look positive... both the blue and purple lines are above the red line which is also moving higher... all we would need here is a confirmed buy signal to complete the picture...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * INTRODUCING SOMETHING NEW TODAY!!! * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * INTRODUCING THE NEW VP PRICE MAP * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market... I hope you like it and find it more useful... this was suggested to me by a fellow subscriber, many thanks for the great suggestion!!!

MAJOR - - 2271.71 and must close below that price on Friday, March 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2266.79 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2247.31 and must close below that price on Monday March 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2245.25 and must close below that price on Thursday, March 10th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2242.94 and must close below that price on Thursday, March 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2144.74

minor - - 2139.98

minor - - 2135.08
minor - - 2127.91

minor - - 2057.67
minor - - 2050.901
minor - - 2042.31
minor - - 2028.301
minor - - 2023.59
MAJOR - - 2013.95 and must close above that price on Friday, October 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2006.68 and must close above that price on Wednesday, October 14th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2002.48 and must close above that price on Wednesday, October 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1978.65 and must close above that price on Friday, September 25th to confirm a new main model buy signal... KEY VP
TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1963.00
minor - - 1920.68
minor - - 1893.46
minor - - 1891.52
minor - - 1883.68
MAJOR - - 1883.49 and must close above that price on Tuesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1863.15 and must close above that price on Thursday, October 29th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1845.15 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1832.56 and must close above that price on Thursday, December 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1822.04
minor - - 1818.98
MAJOR - - 1770.65 and must close above that price on Wednesday, November 25th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1741.71 and must close above that price on Monday, January 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The DECEMBER Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 9/18/15
A close below 1103.00 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...
A close below 1081.40 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...
The main model is now long the December gold from 1118.40 as of Thursday, September 17th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1132.80...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close below 1114.70 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Sell spikes today while in overbought territory... this raises a red flag... again...

image (3)
image (4)

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

MAJOR - - 1269.09 and must close below that price on Monday, September 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1241.16 and must close below that price on Tuesday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1218.51

minor - - 1198.69 TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE

minor - - 1198.69 TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1132.80

minor - - 1067.04

MAJOR - - 1023.99 and must close above that price on Monday, October 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 530.11 (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, very odd...

This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Monday, September 21st

"An investor without investment objectives is like a traveler without a destination."

* * * Ralph Seger

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Thursday, October 1st, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to clear the cobwebs and recharge the batteries... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Wednesday evening of that week... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday, October 12th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop and will resume again on Thursday, October 15th, this is 4 days after I return... this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you nearly another week of additional subscription time as a bonus...

Important Note:

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if those automatic renewal invoices we not canceled, then you would receive the renewal invoice prematurely and without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, so this that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a one time cost lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL since 8/27/15

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...

A close above 2100.34 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...

A close below 1839.72 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The BTIT trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT current trade position: Now flat as of 8/27/15... 1 trade completed, a total gain of 99.90 SP points...

The main model is now short the December SP from 1978.70 as of Thursday, September 17th...

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1950.20 for December...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close above 1978.60 in the December contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now currently flat... place a sell limit order to go short at 1972.70 or better... if filled, place a stop to go flat at 1980.60... also, go long with a close above 1978.60 but not above 1984.60...

Rationale: The major VP at 1978.65... the deadline due date for this major VP is a week from today, so this market is attracted to this price right on schedule...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 35 trades for a net gain of 243.30 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Yesterday's sell spike continues lower again today...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Continued sell spikes here also...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

SOME OF THE VP PRICES HAVE CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY, PLEASE LOOK THEM OVER CAREFULLY...

The following are the current downside VPs for the September SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I may also include the VP prices that are well below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
MAJOR - - 1832.56 and must close above that price on Thursday, December 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1845.15 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1863.15 and must close above that price on Thursday, October 29th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1883.68
minor - - 1891.52
minor - - 1893.46
minor - - 2028.301
minor - - 2050.901
minor - - 2042.31
minor - - 2057.67
MAJOR - - 2006.68 and must close above that price on Wednesday, October 14th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2002.48 and must close above that price on Wednesday, October 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 2023.59
MAJOR - - 2013.95 and must close above that price on Friday, October 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1978.65 and must close above that price on Friday, September 25th to confirm a new main model buy signal... KEY VP
minor - - 1822.04
minor - - 1818.98
MAJOR - - 1770.65 and must close above that price on Wednesday, November 25th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1741.71 and must close above that price on Monday, January 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
TOMORROW'S LOWEST FLOOR PRICE - - 1588.68
The following are the current upside VPs for the September SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I may also include the VP prices that are well below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - - 1980.89
MAJOR - - 2002.51 and must close below that price on Tuesday, October 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2001.32
MAJOR - - 2039.69 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2124.15
minor - - 2127.91
minor - - 2135.08
minor - - 2139.98
minor - - 2144.74
MAJOR - - 2242.94 and must close below that price on Thursday, March 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2245.25 and must close below that price on Thursday, March 10th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2247.31 and must close below that price on Monday March 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2266.79 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2271.71 and must close below that price on Friday, March 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S HIGHEST CEILING PRICE - - 2653.62

The DECEMBER Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 9/18/15
A close below 1103.00 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...
A close below 1081.40 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...
The main model is now long the December gold from 1118.40 as of Thursday, September 17th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1138.70...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 1103.00 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

All lines are moving higher and the blue and purple lines are above the red line which is also moving higher... for once, a positive picture for this market...

image (3)
image (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for December gold...

minor - - 1198.69 TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE

minor - - 1198.69 TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE

minor - - 1218.51

MAJOR - - 1241.16 and must close below that price on Tuesday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1269.09 and must close below that price on Monday, September 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S HIGHEST CEILING PRICE - - 1458.32

The following are the current downside VPs for December gold...

minor - - 1067.04

MAJOR - - 1023.99 and must close above that price on Monday, October 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 530.11 (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, very odd...

This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...

TOMORROW'S LOWEST FLOOR PRICE - - 480.22 (no typo)

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, September 18th

"October is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The other dangerous months are November, December, January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, and September."

* * * Mark Twain

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Thursday, October 1st, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to clear the cobwebs and recharge the batteries... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Wednesday evening of that week... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday, October 12th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop and will resume again on Thursday, October 15th, this is 4 days after I return... this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you nearly another week of additional subscription time as a bonus...

Important Note:

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if those automatic renewal invoices we not canceled, then you would receive the renewal invoice prematurely and without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, so this that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a one time cost lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL since 8/27/15

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...

A close above 2100.34 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...

A close below 1839.72 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The BTIT trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT current trade position: Now flat as of 8/27/15... 1 trade completed, a total gain of 99.90 SP points...

The main model is now short the December SP from 1978.70 as of Thursday, September 17th...

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1974.70 for December...

Notice that the market rallied above the major VP at 2002.51 and then sold down below it... that was a good short signal for those aggressive traders...

Either way, the main model is again nonetheless since the market has now moved and closed below the key major VP of 1978.65...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close above 1978.60 in the December contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now currently flat... you went long at 1984.60 and were subsequently stopped out at 1976.70...

Rationale: The major VP at 1978.65 continues to attract this market... the deadline due date for this major VP is a week from Friday, so this market is attracted to this price right on schedule...

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 35 trades for a net gain of 243.30 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

A clear sell spike today while in deeply over bought territory... the long position was a disappointment since the market did appear promising, but it's always better to go with the signal than to guess and hope, which can surely be disastrous...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The blue line was able to reach the neutral zone before forming a sell spike... the purple line was able to reach into the overbought one before turning lower again... the volatility continues...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the September SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I may also include the VP prices that are well below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - - 1893.46
MAJOR - - 1863.15 and must close above that price on Thursday, October 29th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 2028.301
minor - - 2050.901
minor - - 2042.31
minor - - 2057.67
MAJOR - - 2006.68 and must close above that price on Wednesday, October 14th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 2002.48 and must close above that price on Wednesday, October 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 2023.59
MAJOR - - 2013.95 and must close above that price on Friday, October 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1978.65 and must close above that price on Friday, September 25th to confirm a new main model buy signal... KEY VP
minor - - 1822.04
minor - - 1820.83
MAJOR - - 1770.65 and must close above that price on Wednesday, November 25th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1748.77 and must close above that price on Wednesday, January 6th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
TOMORROW'S LOWEST FLOOR PRICE - - 1588.68
The following are the current upside VPs for the September SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I may also include the VP prices that are well below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - - 1980.89
MAJOR - - 2002.51 and must close below that price on Tuesday, October 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2001.32
MAJOR - - 2039.69 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2124.15
minor - - 2127.91
minor - - 2135.08
minor - - 2139.98
minor - - 2144.74
MAJOR - - 2242.94 and must close below that price on Thursday, March 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2245.25 and must close below that price on Thursday, March 10th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2247.31 and must close below that price on Monday March 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2266.79 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2271.71 and must close below that price on Friday, March 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S HIGHEST CEILING PRICE - - 2653.62

The DECEMBER Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL since 9/17/15
A close above 1137.34 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...
A close below 1103.00 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...
The main model is now long the December gold from 1118.40 as of Thursday, September 17th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1131.30...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 1103.00 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Finally... the market is beginning to look the way the LT graph has been appearing, bullish and friendly... now, the question is could it last??? LOL!!! Let's hope so...

image (3)
image (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for December gold...

minor - - 1198.69 TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE

minor - - 1198.69 TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE

minor - - 1218.51

MAJOR - - 1241.16 and must close below that price on Tuesday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1269.09 and must close below that price on Monday, September 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S HIGHEST CEILING PRICE - - 1458.32

The following are the current downside VPs for December gold...

minor - - 1067.04

MAJOR - - 1023.99 and must close above that price on Monday, October 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 530.11 (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, very odd...

This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...

TOMORROW'S LOWEST FLOOR PRICE - - 480.22 (no typo)

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...