For Wednesday, April 1st

Luxury: The lust for comfort - - that stealthy thing that enters the house as a guest, and then becomes a host, and then a master.

* * * Benjamin Franklin

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

IMPORTANT NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Wednesday, April 8th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to celebrate my wife's birthday this year... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Monday and Tuesday of that week, the 6th and 7th... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday April 20th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... I will be away for 1 and 1/2 weeks, but I will double that and add three full weeks to everyone's subscription calendar as my thanks to you for allowing me this time away to celebrate my wife's birthday...

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if I didn't cancel those automatic renewal invoices, then near your subscription expiration you would receive the renewal invoice without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

The June SP Futures
The

main model

is

now long the June SP from 2049.50 as of Friday, March 27th...
The last trade as of this writing is at 2059.10...

I did send out a late afternoon SP update stating that aggressive traders could consider taking a short position and returning to the long side only with a close today above 2071.80... that the market closed off its highs yesterday followed by a hefty sell off today is not constructive for the bull case... therefore, an aggressive trader could still consider shorting here with a return to the long side with a close above 2071.80...

However, to be sure and to follow the official main model VP reversal points we will go with the following again for tomorrow:

For Wednesday, a close below 2050.00 in the JUNE SP contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now long at about 2051.90... for tomorrow, place a sell stop to go flat at 2048.00... also, enter a new short position with a close below 2050.00 but not lower than 2044.00...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator is giving a sell spike today, although the indicator is not in over bought territory right now...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Sell spike in the LT graph also... the main concern I have about this graph today is that along with the sell spikes we still see the red line moving lower... this means the directional bias is still downward for now... this market needs another serious rally to turn that red line around, and soon... maybe tomorrow...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the June SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - 2111.02
MAJOR - - 2143.705 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2123.44
MAJOR - - 2157.01 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2282.32
For now, the main model remains long the SP...
No more residual VP points remain...

The JUNE Gold futures

The main model is now short the June gold from 1198.20 as of Monday, March 30th...

For the June gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1183.50...

For Wednesday, a close above 1200.70 in the JUNE gold would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are flat this market,... enter a new long position with a close above 1200.70 but not above 1206.70...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This LT graph continues to look toppy, except in this graph the red line is still moving higher, but just barely, it looks like it's about ready to turn lower... until this market can prove itself, the main model remains short this market...

image (3)
image (4)

The following are the current downside VPs for JUNE gold...

minor - - 1159.65

minor - - 1135.83

MAJOR - - 1103.701 and must close above that price on Monday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1099.59 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1012.32

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, March 31st

Luxury: The lust for comfort - - that stealthy thing that enters the house as a guest, and then becomes a host, and then a master.

* * * Benjamin Franklin

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

IMPORTANT NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Wednesday, April 8th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to celebrate my wife's birthday this year... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Monday and Tuesday of that week, the 6th and 7th... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday April 20th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... I will be away for 1 and 1/2 weeks, but I will double that and add three full weeks to everyone's subscription calendar as my thanks to you for allowing me this time away to celebrate my wife's birthday...

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if I didn't cancel those automatic renewal invoices, then near your subscription expiration you would receive the renewal invoice without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

The June SP Futures

The main model is now long the June SP from 2049.50 as of Friday, March 27th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2075.10...

For Tuesday, a close below 2050.00 in the JUNE SP contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now long at about 2051.90... for tomorrow, place a sell stop to go flat at 2048.00... also, enter a new short position with a close below 2050.00 but not lower than 2044.00...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator gave us a solid buy spike today...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Solid buy spikes in the LT graph also... the blue line actually crossed above the red line today, and the purple line is within whispering distance of that red line...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the June SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - 2111.02
MAJOR - - 2143.705 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2123.44
MAJOR - - 2157.01 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2282.32
For now, the main model remains long the SP...
No more residual VP points remain...

The JUNE Gold futures

The main model is now long the June gold from 118.20 as of Monday, March 30th...

For the June gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1185.20...

For Tuesday, a close above 1200.70 in the JUNE gold would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are flat this market,... enter a new long position with a close above 1200.70 but not above 1206.70...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This LT graph does look seriously toppy, just look at it... sell spike in an overbought condition...

image (3)
image (4)

The following are the current downside VPs for JUNE gold...

minor - - 1159.65

minor - - 1135.83

MAJOR - - 1103.701 and must close above that price on Monday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1099.59 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1012.32

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Monday, March 30th

If all the economists were laid end to end, they'd still never reach a conclusion.

* * * George Bernard Shaw

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

IMPORTANT NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Wednesday, April 8th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to celebrate my wife's birthday this year... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Monday and Tuesday of that week, the 6th and 7th... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday April 20th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... I will be away for 1 and 1/2 weeks, but I will double that and add three full weeks to everyone's subscription calendar as my thanks to you for allowing me this time away to celebrate my wife's birthday...

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if I didn't cancel those automatic renewal invoices, then near your subscription expiration you would receive the renewal invoice without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

TODAY'S SUBSCRIBER QUESTION: If I'm using the Hoban Rule and I got stopped out overnight, should I reinstate the short position if the market closes below the buy confirmation price today?

ANSWER: Strictly following the Hoban Rule, you would remain flat no matter what the market does after you get stopped out, even if it crashed... if you prefer, you could always reinstate the short position and use the same stop again, but realize if the market already rallied 2 points above the buy confirmation price, then there's a reasonable chance the market may turn higher here... the beauty of using the Hoban Rule is that you never have to think about what to do under any circumstances...

A post answer comment: And this is exactly what happened today, the market did rally after all and a buy confirmation was established... so, if you follow the Hoban Rule and are stopped out of your position, then simply stay out and wait for the next signal...

The June SP Futures

The main model is now long the June SP from 2049.50 as of Friday, March 27th... this was a wonderful quick short position trade for some hefty gains...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2051.90...

For Monday, a close below 2032.50 in the JUNE SP contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

THE HOBAN RULE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE GOLD MARKET WILL BE PRESENTED HERE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PROBABLY NO LATER THAN MONDAY...

Here's an update on the Hoban Rule trade performance as of today since the current short position has been stopped out for the Hoban Rule traders...

The current short position was stopped out overnight at 2051.50 for a gain of 33.70 SP points on this trade... this strategy has produced 209.4 SP points in 6 months and is recommended for anyone who has difficulty timing and entering the trade signals on their own... if so, then you might consider using the Hoban Rule as your primary trading tool based on the Main Model signals... heck, if I don't have to think about where and when to enter and exit each new trade position in order to avoid potential intraday whips, then I may just follow it exclusively for myself... a 209.4 point gain with a single mini contract translates to a $10,470.00 profit in 6 months with absolutely no thinking required... and for a single large contract, this translates to a $52,350.00 profit for not much more than a casual effort...

As of today's closed short position:

image

For Hoban Rule traders, you were stopped out of your short position overnight at 2051.50 and are now long on the close at about 2051.90... for Monday, place a sell stop to go flat at 2030.50... also, enter a new short position with a close below 2032.50 but not lower than 2026.50...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

No buy spike today, but the NT indicator is still working off the heavy selling of the past few days... there's a very high likelihood that this NT indicator will give us a solid buy spike on Monday unless this market goes down significantly... considering that we just confirmed a new main model buy signal, the odds of a heavily declining market on Monday is low...

image (1)

The LT (Long Term) indicator

We do have buy spike in the LT graph, and you can almost see a nice underlying support line below the recent blue buy spikes... this looks encouraging...

image (2)
image (3)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the June SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - 2111.02
MAJOR - - 2143.705 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2123.44
MAJOR - - 2157.01 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2282.32
For now, the main model remains long the SP...
No more residual VP points remain...
The APRIL Gold futures

We will roll into the June contract on Monday...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1160.90 as of Wednesday, March 18th...

For the April gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1198.20...

For Monday, a close below 1198.20 in the JUNE gold would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 1198.20 but not below 1192.20...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This LT graph is beginning to look toppy, but we'll see what gold does on Monday...

image (4)
image (5)

The following are the current upside VPs for APRIL gold...

minor - - 1229.11

MAJOR - - 1263.48 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1322.85

MAJOR - - 1395.81 and must close below that price on Tuesday, June 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1408.82

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, March 27th

If all the economists were laid end to end, they'd still never reach a conclusion.

* * * George Bernard Shaw

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

IMPORTANT NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Wednesday, April 8th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to celebrate my wife's birthday this year... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Monday and Tuesday of that week, the 6th and 7th... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday April 20th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... I will be away for 1 and 1/2 weeks, but I will double that and add three full weeks to everyone's subscription calendar as my thanks to you for allowing me this time away to celebrate my wife's birthday...

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if I didn't cancel those automatic renewal invoices, then near your subscription expiration you would receive the renewal invoice without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

The June SP Futures

The main model is now short the June SP from 2089.90 as of Tuesday, March 24th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2047.40...

For Friday, a close above 2049.50 in the JUNE SP contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE HOBAN RULE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE GOLD MARKET WILL BE PRESENTED HERE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PROBABLY NO LATER THAN MONDAY...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now short on the close at about 2085.20... for tomorrow, place a buy stop to go flat at 2051.50... also, enter a new long position with a close tomorrow above 2049.50 but not above 2055.50...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator is just holding at this level...

securedownload

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph looks like melting wax... the main model stays short for now...

securedownload (1)
securedownload (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the June SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
When the sell signal was confirmed, I wrote these listed VP points are very far below the market... this is an indication of how much this market has rallied without any credible pull back... if this market does continue lower, that is just if, then it appears that the decline could be more substantial than otherwise, this is based only on the distance from today's closing price to the general vicinity of the listed VP points... the nearest VP point is almost 60 SP points below the current market, and the others are still significantly lower than that...
Well, the above comment is no longer the case, this market did in fact move significantly lower rapidly and has now reach a point where the cream of this short position may well already have been taken off the top... let's keep an eye on this market for tomorrow...
minor - - 2049.55 confirmation price for tomorrow...
minor - - 2027.96
MAJOR - - 2025.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, April 30th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1994.22 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - 1958.29
MAJOR - - 1896.82 and must close above that price on Friday, May 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1732.22 EGADS!!!
For now, the main model remains short the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2081.691

minor - - 2096.08

The APRIL Gold futures

We will roll into the June contract probably no later than Monday...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1160.90 as of Wednesday, March 18th...

For the April gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1203.10...

mid-day updates for Gold:

For Friday, a close below 1203.10 in the April Gold would confirm a new main model sell signal...  a close below 1179.70 in the April Gold would confirm a new main model sell signal...    the market is currently trading at 1200.50...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 1203.10 but not below 1197.10...   enter a new short position with a close below 1159.70 but not below 1153.70...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

The LT graph continues looking bullish, although a bit tired now that it's approaching the over bought zone... if you notice, the blue and purple lines are now in the vicinity of previous price tops...

securedownload (3)
securedownload (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for APRIL gold...

minor - - 1229.11

MAJOR - - 1263.48 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1322.85

MAJOR - - 1395.81 and must close below that price on Tuesday, June 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1408.82

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Thursday, March 26th

The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does.

* * * John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

IMPORTANT NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Wednesday, April 8th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to celebrate my wife's birthday this year... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Monday and Tuesday of that week, the 6th and 7th... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday April 20th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... I will be away for 1 and 1/2 weeks, but I will double that and add three full weeks to everyone's subscription calendar as my thanks to you for allowing me this time away to celebrate my wife's birthday...

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if I didn't cancel those automatic renewal invoices, then near your subscription expiration you would receive the renewal invoice without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

The June SP Futures

The main model is now short the June SP from 2089.90 as of Tuesday, March 24th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2054.90...

Now, this is what I call a nice short position, even the Hoban Rule traders are on board for this nice move...

For Thursday, a close above 2089.80 in the JUNE SP contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

AN UPDATE ON THE HOBAN RULE PROFITS AND LOSSES SINCE INCEPTION 6 MONTHS AGO... THE HOBAN RULE PERFORMANCE HISTORY FOR THE GOLD MARKET WILL BE PRESENTED HERE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PROBABLY NO LATER THAN MONDAY...

The first trade was done on 9/4/14... a total of 18 trades... a total gain of 175.7 SP points overall.. the average overall gain is 9.76 points per trade... 10 winning trades, 8 losses... the winning average (WA) is 23.51 points per trade, the losing average (LA) trade was for 6.91 points, this is about a 3.4 to 1 win ratio in win/loss points with an overall winning trade percentage of 55.55%... if you have any questions on this, please just ask...

securedownload

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now short on the close at about 2085.20... for tomorrow, place a buy stop to go flat at 2091.80... also, enter a new long position with a close tomorrow above 2089.80 but not above 2095.80...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

We have a buy spike today, but not in oversold territory... it's hard to believe this market is still not oversold, according to the NT indicator...

securedownload (1)

The LT (Long Term) indicator

All systems are pointing and moving lower...

securedownload (2)
securedownload (3)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the June SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
These listed VP points are very far below the market... this is an indication of how much this market has rallied without any credible pull back... if this market does continue lower, that is just if, then it appears that the decline could be more substantial than otherwise, this is based only on the distance from today's closing price to the general vicinity of the listed VP points... the nearest VP point is almost 60 SP points below the current market, and the others are still significantly lower than that...
minor - - 2027.96
MAJOR - - 1994.22 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - 1958.29
MAJOR - - 1896.82 and must close above that price on Friday, May 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1732.22 EGADS!!!
For now, the main model remains short the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2081.691

minor - - 2096.08

The APRIL Gold futures

We will roll into the June contract probably no later than Monday...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1160.90 as of Wednesday, March 18th...

For the April gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1194.90...

For Thursday, a close below 1184.70 in the April Gold would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 1184.70 but not below 1178.70...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

The LT graph shows a market that has rallied nicely for a while and is now beginning to lose thrust... notice the purple line has begun to turn downward...

securedownload (4)
securedownload (5)

The following are the current upside VPs for APRIL gold...

minor - - 1229.11

MAJOR - - 1263.48 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1322.85

MAJOR - - 1395.81 and must close below that price on Tuesday, June 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1408.82

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, March 25th

The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does.

* * * John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

IMPORTANT NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Wednesday, April 8th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to celebrate my wife's birthday this year... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Monday and Tuesday of that week, the 6th and 7th... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday April 20th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... I will be away for 1 and 1/2 weeks, but I will double that and add three full weeks to everyone's subscription calendar as my thanks to you for allowing me this time away to celebrate my wife's birthday...

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if I didn't cancel those automatic renewal invoices, then near your subscription expiration you would receive the renewal invoice without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

The June SP Futures

The main model is now short the June SP from 2089.90 as of Tuesday, March 24th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2085.20...

For Wednesday, a close above 2106.40 in the JUNE SP contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

AN UPDATE ON THE HOBAN RULE PROFITS AND LOSSES SINCE INCEPTION 6 MONTHS AGO...

The first trade was done on 9/4/14... a total of 18 trades... a total gain of 175.7 SP points overall.. the average overall gain is 9.76 points per trade... 10 winning trades, 8 losses... the winning average (WA) is 23.51 points per trade, the losing average (LA) trade was for 6.91 points, this is about a 3.4 to 1 win ratio in win/loss points with an overall winning trade percentage of 55.55%... if you have any questions on this, please just ask...

image

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now short on the close at about 2085.20... for tomorrow, place a buy stop to go flat at 2108.40... also, enter a new long position with a close tomorrow above 2106.40 but not above 2112.40...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Obviously, a clear sell spike is visible today for the NT indicator...

image (1)

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Clear sell spikes for the LT graph and both blue and purple lines have crossed south of the key red line... in fact, the red line itself turned down slightly today... this is encouraging since the main model is now short this market...

image (2)
image (3)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the June SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
These listed VP points are very far below the market... this is an indication of how much this market has rallied without any credible pull back... if this market does continue lower, that is just if, then it appears that the decline could be more substantial than otherwise, this is based only on the distance from today's closing price to the general vicinity of the listed VP points... the nearest VP point is almost 60 SP points below the current market, and the others are still significantly lower than that...
minor - - 2027.96
MAJOR - - 1994.22 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - 1958.29
MAJOR - - 1896.82 and must close above that price on Friday, May 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1732.22 EGADS!!!
For now, the main model remains short the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2081.691

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The APRIL Gold futures

The main model is now long the June gold from 1160.90 as of Wednesday, March 18th...

For the April gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1192.80...

For Wednesday, a close below 1159.70 in the April Gold would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 1159.70 but not below 1153.70...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

All systems are still go for this LT graph, although the blue and purple lines appear a bit bent as of today... this market could stall for a day or two, let's hope that's all it does...

image (4)
image (5)

The following are the current upside VPs for APRIL gold...

minor - - 1229.11

MAJOR - - 1263.48 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1322.85

MAJOR - - 1395.81 and must close below that price on Tuesday, June 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1408.82

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, March 24th

The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does.

* * * John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

IMPORTANT NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Wednesday, April 8th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to celebrate my wife's birthday this year... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Monday and Tuesday of that week, the 6th and 7th... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday April 20th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... I will be away for 1 and 1/2 weeks, but I will double that and add three full weeks to everyone's subscription calendar as my thanks to you for allowing me this time away to celebrate my wife's birthday...

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if I didn't cancel those automatic renewal invoices, then near your subscription expiration you would receive the renewal invoice without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

The June SP Futures

The main model is now long the June SP from 2089.80 as of Friday, March 20th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2095.10...

Today's high was 2106.70... we have a major VP at 2106.61 with a deadline due date arriving today Monday, the 23rd... aggressive traders could probably go short right away, but for the main model, we'll still go with the standard VP for a sell confirmation for tomorrow to give this market all the room it needs to prove itself...

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Tuesday , a close below 2089.90 in the JUNE SP contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

AN UPDATE ON THE HOBAN RULE PROFITS AND LOSSES SINCE INCEPTION 6 MONTHS AGO...

The first trade was done on 9/4/14... a total of 18 trades... a total gain of 175.7 SP points overall.. the average overall gain is 9.76 points per trade... 10 winning trades, 8 losses... the winning average (WA) is 23.51 points per trade, the losing average (LA) trade was for 6.91 points, this is about a 3.4 to 1 win ratio in win/loss points with an overall winning trade percentage of 55.55%... if you have any questions on this, please just ask...

securedownload

For Hoban Rule traders, for the JUNE contract enter a new short position with a close below 2089.90 but not below 2083.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Today's NT indicator is relatively uneventful...

securedownload (1)

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Also somewhat uneventful, but with a bit of a snub nose bend in the blue and purple lines today... we'll know more tomorrow...

securedownload (2)
securedownload (3)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the June SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - 2057.36 (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2089.85 and must close below that price on Thursday, March 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
minor - - 2123.44
MAJOR - - 2157.01 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2277.08
For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2081.691

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The APRIL Gold futures

The main model is now long the June gold from 1160.90 as of Wednesday, March 18th...

For the April gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1189.70...

For Tuesday, a close below 1159.70 in the April Gold would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 1159.70 but not below 1153.70...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

If someone told me this was the gold LT graph, I wouldn't believe it... this graph looks substantially bullish right now... all lines are pointing and moving higher, and the purple line has been above the red line already for weeks!!! It's not quite over bought, but it's getting there... the first pull back, wherever that may be, is likely to be bought up quickly...

securedownload (4)
securedownload (5)

The following are the current upside VPs for APRIL gold...

minor - - 1229.11

MAJOR - - 1263.48 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1322.85

MAJOR - - 1395.81 and must close below that price on Tuesday, June 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1408.82

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Monday, March 23rd

The human race has had long experience and a fine tradition in surviving adversity. But we now face a task for which we have little experience, the task of surviving prosperity.

* * * Alan Gregg

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

IMPORTANT NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Wednesday, April 8th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to celebrate my wife's birthday this year... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Monday and Tuesday of that week, the 6th and 7th... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday April 20th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"... LOL!!!

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... I will be away for 1 and 1/2 weeks, but I will double that and add three full weeks to everyone's subscription calendar as my thanks to you for allowing me this time away to celebrate my wife's birthday...

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if I didn't cancel those automatic renewal invoices, then near your subscription expiration you would receive the renewal invoice without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

TWO SUBSCRIBER QUESTIONS TODAY:

Q. Without giving away any top secrets, I'm amazed how the main model can calculate those VP prices - - it seems the market is attracted to those exact prices all the time. How can it do that all the time?

A. Great question. The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP the VP then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

Q. How do I overcome the fear of buying on a new buy signal when the market has already rallied so much?

A. This is also a very excellent question, and many people have that same concern. Truly, it makes no difference how much the market may have already rallied before reaching a new signal confirmation price... realize that the main model is specifically designed to detect the most subtle changes in market trend... so, if a new signal confirmation price is reached even after a long market move, it should be treated as if the market is only first beginning a new trend direction... this is the difference between a pull back in an up trend and a legitimate new down trend beginning at that confirmation point, this is why the signal is only confirmed on the close... legitimate new down trends do not occur at the top tick in an ongoing up trend, they only occur after the market has already sold off some distance... at some point, it is no longer an up trending pull back but the very beginning of a new down trend, and that is where the main model sell confirmation price would be... therefore, those new signals should be taken without fear of worry...

The June SP Futures

The main model is now long the June SP from 2089.80 as of Friday, March 20th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2099.60...

Today's high was 2106.30... we have a major VP at 2106.61 with a deadline due date arriving on Monday, the 23rd... we'll still go with the lower VP for a sell confirmation for Monday and give this market some room to wiggle...

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Monday, a close below 2089.90 in the JUNE SP contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, for the JUNE contract enter a new short position with a close below 2089.90 but not below 2083.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT sell spike actually continued lower, but unless this market really sells off heavily on Monday, the NT indicator should turn higher and give us a buy spike, although the NT indicator is still in somewhat over bought territory... so, we'll see...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

Both the blue and purple lines turned upward today and both are above the red line... this is encouraging for a continued rally next week...

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securedownload (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the June SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - 2057.36 (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2089.85 and must close below that price on Thursday, March 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
minor - - 2123.44
MAJOR - - 2157.01 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2277.08
For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2081.691

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The APRIL Gold futures

The main model is now long the June gold from 1160.90 as of Wednesday, March 18th...

For the April gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1182.40...

For Monday, a close below 1159.70 in the April Gold would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 1159.70 but not below 1153.70...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This is about the best looking LT graph for this market that I've seen in many moons... just look at it... it's candy for the eyes... LOL!!!

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The following are the current upside VPs for APRIL gold...

minor - - 1229.11

MAJOR - - 1263.48 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1322.85

MAJOR - - 1395.81 and must close below that price on Tuesday, June 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1408.82

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, March 20th

Worry never robs tomorrow of its sorrow, it only saps today of its joy.

* * * Leo Buscaglia

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

IMPORTANT NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Wednesday, April 8th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to celebrate my wife's birthday this year... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Monday and Tuesday of that week, the 6th and 7th... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday April 20th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"... LOL!!!

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... I will be away for 1 and 1/2 weeks, but I will double that and add three full weeks to everyone's subscription calendar as my thanks to you for allowing me this time away to celebrate my wife's birthday...

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if I didn't cancel those automatic renewal invoices, then near your subscription expiration you would receive the renewal invoice without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

The June SP Futures

The main model is now short the June SP from 2089.90 as of Thursday, March 19th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2080.60...

Just when everyone is looking for a higher market, we get a confirmed main model sell signal...

For Friday, a close above 2098.50 in the JUNE SP contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a new long position with a close above 2098.50 but not above 2104.50...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

We have a clear sell spike today in somewhat over bought territory...

securedownload

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Both the blue and purple lines crossed above the red line yesterday, but both gave a sell spike today... we'll see what tomorrow brings...

securedownload (1)
securedownload (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the June SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
I realize these VP prices are very far down, but that's all I have as of this afternoon... the market is truly that much over bought right now, so these VP points are reflecting reasonable selling exhaustion points for the current market...
minor - 1958.29
MAJOR - - 1900.67 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1732.22 EGADS!!!
For now, the main model remains short the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2081.691

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The APRIL Gold futures

The main model is now long the June gold from 1160.90 as of Wednesday, March 18th...

For the April gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1170.80...

For Friday, a close below 1159.70 in the April Gold would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 1159.70 but not below 1153.70...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

The blue and purple lines have stalled, but nothing here to worry about...

securedownload (3)
securedownload (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for APRIL gold...

minor - - 1229.11

MAJOR - - 1263.48 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1322.85

MAJOR - - 1395.81 and must close below that price on Tuesday, June 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1408.82

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Thursday, March 19th

Do not value money for any more nor any less than its worth; it is a good servant but a bad master.

* * * Alexandre Dumas

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

IMPORTANT NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Wednesday, April 8th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to celebrate my wife's birthday this year... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Monday and Tuesday of that week, the 6th and 7th... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday April 13th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"... LOL!!!

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... I will be away for 1 and 1/2 weeks, but I will double that and add three full weeks to everyone's subscription calendar as my thanks to you for allowing me this time away to celebrate my wife's birthday...

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if I didn't cancel those automatic renewal invoices, then near your subscription expiration you would receive the renewal invoice without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

The June SP Futures

The main model is now long the June SP from 2040.10 as of Thursday, March 12th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2093.40...

That was a close call with the sell signal, but the afternoon rally saved the day...

For Thursday, a close below 2089.90 in the JUNE SP contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a new short position with a close below 2089.90 but not below 2083.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator continues higher with what "looks like" a significant bottom just recently made...

securedownload

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Both the blue and purple lines crossed above the red line today... all together, this is a good looking graph...

securedownload (1)
securedownload (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the June SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - 2057.36 (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2089.85 and must close below that price on Thursday, March 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
minor - - 2123.44
MAJOR - - 2157.01 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2277.08
For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2081.691

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The APRIL Gold futures

The main model is now long the June gold from 1160.90 as of Wednesday, March 18th...

We just closed a short gold position for about 125 dollar gain in just under two months... not too shabby...

For the April gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1171.90...

For Thursday, a close below 1143.20 in the April Gold would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 1143.20 but not below 1137.20...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

For about a week now, I've been saying this LT graph looks like a market that wants to turn higher, all we needed was a main model signal... well, today we got one... notice how the blue and purple lines actually turned higher long before the price itself, and both are now well above the red line, this is very constructive for this market... and also notice how we have a neat support line for the blue line below... there is no clear support line visible for the price, but we can see it very clearly in this LT graph... this is the beauty of this kind of graph, e.g., early warnings of a possible market turn and good support/resistance lines that cannot be seen anywhere else...

securedownload (3)
securedownload (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for APRIL gold...

minor - - 1229.11

MAJOR - - 1263.48 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1322.85

MAJOR - - 1395.81 and must close below that price on Tuesday, June 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1408.82

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...