For Friday, February 27th

We live by the Golden Rule. Those who have the gold make the rules.

* * * Buzzie Bavasi

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The March SP Futures

The main model is now long the March SP from 2041.90 as of Thursday, February 5th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2109.10...

No sell signal confirmation today... the market rally higher after testing the 2106 and 2107 VP points...

For Friday, a close below 2106.70 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 2106.70 but not below 2100.70...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: No current EQ spread entered......

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT sell spike is back...

securedownload

The LT (Long Term) indicator

This LT graph continues to look top heavy...

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securedownload (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - - 2061.99 (already reached)
minor - - 2070.03 (already reached)
minor - - 2070.85 (already reached)
minor - - 2096.08 (already reached)
minor - - 2056.29 (already reached)
Notice four major VP deadline due dates are within a few market days of each other, e.g., Friday, Monday, and Tuesday...
MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2107.02 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2232.46
For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 2056.29

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2081.691

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.95 and must close below that price on Wednesday, March 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The APRIL Gold futures

The main model is now short the June gold from 1284.10 as of Thursday, January 29th...

For the April gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1208.20...

No buy confirmation today, and now this market is again beginning to look suspect...

For Friday, a close above 1222.90 in the April Gold would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new long position with a close above 1222.90 but not above 1228.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Aside from the fact that this LT graph looks interestingly bullish, the gold market itself isn't confirming... maybe tomorrow... also, notice the higher buy confirmation price for tomorrow...

securedownload (3)
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The following are the current downside VPs for APRIL gold...

minor - - 1159.65

MAJOR - - 1099.59 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 890.18 (NO TYPO, YES, I TRIPLE CHECKED)

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Thursday, February 26th

Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons.

* * * Woody Allen

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The March SP Futures

The main model is now long the March SP from 2041.90 as of Thursday, February 5th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2111.10...

For Thursday, a close below 2106.70 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 2106.70 but not below 2100.70...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: The EQ spread was closed out at just above break even...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Today's NT indicator has a more well developed buy spike... this market just keeps on trucking!!!

securedownload

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Meanwhile, the LT graph look more and more toppy... if this market is really about to pull back some, then the NT shown above suggests that maybe another two days or so before any pull back may occur, and therefore this market could just go sideways for the next few days... we'll see...

securedownload (1)
securedownload (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - - 2061.99 (already reached)
minor - - 2070.03 (already reached)
minor - - 2070.85 (already reached)
minor - - 2096.08 (already reached)
minor - - 2056.29 (already reached)
Notice four major VP deadline due dates are within a few market days of each other, e.g., Friday, Monday, and Tuesday...
MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2107.02 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2232.46
For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 2056.29

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2081.691

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.95 and must close below that price on Wednesday, March 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The APRIL Gold futures

The main model is now short the June gold from 1284.10 as of Thursday, January 29th...

For the April gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1204.20...

For Thursday, a close above 1210.30 in the April Gold would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new long position with a close above 1210.30 but not above 1216.30...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This LT graph does look like this market wants to turn higher... the only problem is that the market itself doesn't... maybe tomorrow... meanwhile, the gold miners group looked impressive today, but can it be trusted without a buy confirmation in the gold market itself???

securedownload (3)
securedownload (4)

The following are the current downside VPs for APRIL gold...

minor - - 1159.65

MAJOR - - 1099.59 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 890.18 (NO TYPO, YES, I TRIPLE CHECKED)

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, February 25th

Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day. Teach a man to fish and he will eat for a lifetime. Teach a man to create an artificial shortage of fish and he will eat steak.

* * * Jay Leno

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The March SP Futures

The main model is now long the March SP from 2041.90 as of Thursday, February 5th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2113.60...

For Wednesday, a close below 2106.70 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 2106.70 but not below 2100.70...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: A new EQ spread was entered today... long 150 SOXL at 149.855 and long 1200 SOXS at 11.4072... this is somewhat bullish, 150/1971 would be ideally balanced...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator is giving us a modest buy spike today, this is encouraging... it seems this market has finally worked off its over bought condition and is now ready to resume the rally...

securedownload

The LT (Long Term) indicator

A 7 point SP rally today hardly moved the needle for the LT graph... yesterday's LT graph is seen directly below today's, hardly any difference...

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securedownload (2)

Below is yesterday's LT graph...

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securedownload (4)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - - 2061.99 (already reached)
minor - - 2070.03 (already reached)
minor - - 2070.85 (already reached)
minor - - 2096.08 (already reached)
minor - - 2056.29 (already reached)
Notice four major VP deadline due dates are within a few market days of each other, e.g., Friday, Monday, and Tuesday...
MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2107.02 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2232.46
For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 2056.29

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2081.691

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.95 and must close below that price on Wednesday, March 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The APRIL Gold futures

The main model is now short the June gold from 1284.10 as of Thursday, January 29th...

For the April gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1200.00...

For Wednesday, a close above 1210.30 in the April Gold would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new long position with a close above 1210.30 but not above 1216.30...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Today, while the gold market itself was a bit lower, we can see the blue line continue lower today but the purple line actually turned higher... one can only guess, but it appears as if this market is trying to hold at this level and may well turn higher from here... we'll know better tomorrow...

securedownload (5)
securedownload (6)

The following are the current downside VPs for APRIL gold...

minor - - 1159.65

MAJOR - - 1099.59 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 890.18 (NO TYPO, YES, I TRIPLE CHECKED)

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, February 24th

A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore.

* * * Yogi Berra

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The March SP Futures

The main model is now long the March SP from 2041.90 as of Thursday, February 5th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2106.60...

For Tuesday, a close below 2094.40 would confirm a new main model sell signal... the main model will stay with this same confirmation point, this will give this market the room it needs to wiggle around before continuing higher, if it does continue higher...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 2094.40 but not below 2088.40...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: A new EQ spread was entered today... long 100 UPRO 141.74 and long 400 SPXU at 34.57... this is slightly bullish, 100/410 would be ideally balanced...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator shows this market working off an over bought condition... this is bullish since the market is moving sideways while this overbought condition is being undone...

securedownload

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph actually does look a bit more toppy here... let's see what tomorrow brings...

securedownload (1)
securedownload (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - - 2061.99 (already reached)
minor - - 2070.03 (already reached)
minor - - 2070.85 (already reached)
minor - - 2096.08 (already reached)
minor - - 2056.29 (already reached)
Notice four major VP deadline due dates are within a few market days of each other, e.g., Friday, Monday, and Tuesday...
MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2107.02 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2232.46
For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 2056.29

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2081.691

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.95 and must close below that price on Wednesday, March 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The APRIL Gold futures

The main model is now short the June gold from 1284.10 as of Thursday, January 29th...

For the April gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1202.20...

For Tuesday, a close above 1222.90 in the April Gold would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new long position with a close above 1222.90 but not above 1228.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This LT graph is now looking like this market is trying to bottom... interesting...

securedownload (3)
securedownload (4)

The following are the current downside VPs for APRIL gold...

minor - - 1159.65

MAJOR - - 1099.59 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 890.18 (NO TYPO, YES, I TRIPLE CHECKED)

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Monday, February 23rd

I'm so poor I can't even pay attention.

* * * Ron Kittle

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The March SP Futures

The main model is now long the March SP from 2041.90 as of Thursday, February 5th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2107.10... the same price as yesterday at this time...

In the past few days, this market had every opportunity to go lower, but it keeps rejecting the offer... and now, this whole daily chart pattern over the past few days looks very much like a breakout and a consolidation above the break out level... this is very bullish... the market sold down to the 2082 VP before turning higher, and then the 2094.301 VP was also penetrated higher... if I had to guess, which is always dangerous to do, I would suspect the remaining VP points may offer only turbulence while this market continues higher...

For Monday, a close below 2094.40 would confirm a new main model sell signal... the main model will stay with this same confirmation point, this will give this market the room it needs to wiggle around before continuing higher, if it does continue higher...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 2094.40 but not below 2088.40...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: There are no EQ spreads active at this time... considering the apparent bullishness of this market, a net long position is now in play...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT continues lower, but is no longer as over bought... in fact, the NT line itself has bent some... this market has been working off its over bought condition in a sideways pattern, this is bullish...

securedownload

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT sell spike is gone... while this market is still holding in somewhat over bought condition according to the LT graph, the indicators have both turned higher once again... the purple line is now moving above the red line again, this is encouraging...

securedownload (1)
securedownload (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - - 2061.99 (already reached)
minor - - 2070.03 (already reached)
minor - - 2070.85 (already reached)
minor - - 2096.08 (already reached)
minor - - 2056.29 (already reached)
Notice four major VP deadline due dates are within a few market days of each other, e.g., Friday, Monday, and Tuesday...
MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2107.02 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2232.46
For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 2056.29

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2081.691

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.95 and must close below that price on Wednesday, March 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The APRIL Gold futures

The main model is now short the June gold from 1284.10 as of Thursday, January 29th...

For the April gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1200.80...

I wrote the comment below only yesterday, but it's well worth repeating again today, especially after the gold market refused the offer to turn higher:

This market had every opportunity to rally today, but it continues to show timidity in the face of opportunity... certainly, a strong dollar is taking its toll on this gold market... even the gold miner group tipped over today and played dead... at this point, I'll simply remain short and not attempt another buy until the main model tells me otherwise...

For Monday, a close above 1222.90 in the April Gold would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new long position with a close above 1222.90 but not above 1228.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

The LT graph shows a market that doesn't know how to rally... every opportunity to rally is rejected by more selling... the main model stays short this market...

securedownload (3)
securedownload (4)

The following are the current downside VPs for APRIL gold...

minor - - 1159.65

MAJOR - - 1099.59 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 890.18 (NO TYPO, YES, I TRIPLE CHECKED)

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, February 20th

An investment in knowledge always pays the best interest.

* * * Benjamin Franklin

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The March SP Futures

The main model is now  long the March SP from 2041.90 as of Thursday, February 5th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2095.40... the same price as yesterday at this time...

Okay, has anyone noticed that the major VP at 2099.07 had a deadline due date for today, this date has been included in the evening briefings since October 15th when the major low was made... am I the only one amazed how this market reached that very price this morning right on calendar schedule and then sold off very quickly in what can only be referred to as the VP body slam!!! LOL!!!

Okay, no sell confirmation today, but this market is now trapped between the 2099.07 VP and the 2094.301 VP, both major VP points... I realize the 2099.07 VP expired today, but the effect may linger for another day or so...

For Friday, a close below 2094.40 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 2094.40 but not below 2088.40...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: The current EQ spread was closed out today with a gain of $328.84...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator continues working lower...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Sell spike in the LT graph also, and the purple line crossed south of the red line... even though we did not have a confirmed sell today, this rally appears to be running out of steam... we already know this market is now trapped between two VP points... which one will attract this market now??? Although the 2099.07 VP expired as of today, the effect may still linger for another day or so... also, look at where the blue and purple lines are currently, this market is certainly vulnerable to a pull back of some sort...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - - 2061.99 (already reached)
minor - - 2070.03 (already reached)
minor - - 2070.85 (already reached)
minor - - 2096.08 (already reached)
minor - - 2056.29 (already reached)
Notice four major VP deadline due dates are within a few market days of each other, e.g., Friday, Monday, and Tuesday...
MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2107.02 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2232.46
For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 2056.29

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2081.691

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.95 and must close below that price on Wednesday, March 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The APRIL Gold futures

The main model is now short the June gold from 1284.10 as of Thursday, January 29th...

For the April gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1207.20...

This market had every opportunity to rally today, but it continues to show timidity in the face of opportunity... certainly, a strong dollar is taking its toll on this gold market... even the gold miner group tipped over today and played dead... at this point, I'll simply remain short and not attempt another buy until the main model tells me otherwise...

For Friday, a close above 1213.40 in the April Gold would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new long position with a close above 1213.40 but not above 1219.40 ...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This LT graph certainly looks over sold now, but no buy signal yet... if this market doesn't build a base at current levels, then there's no telling if this market won't attempt a break below 1100 at some point... this market can't get out of its own way, and the strong dollar, now above 11 year highs, isn't making it easy for the gold market to rally...

image (3)
image (4)

The following are the current downside VPs for APRIL gold...

minor - - 1159.65

MAJOR - - 1099.59 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 890.18 (NO TYPO, YES, I TRIPLE CHECKED)

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Thursday, February 19th

I'm having an out of money experience.

* * * Author Unknown

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The March SP Futures

The main model is now long the March SP from 2041.90 as of Thursday, February 5th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2095.60... no sell signal confirmation today...

For Thursday, a close below 2094.40 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 2094.40 but not below 2088.40...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: The current EQ spread remains as follows, long 250 SPXL at 89.21592 and long 660 SPXU at 35.9071, this is perfectly balanced and without bias in either direction...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

We can see a modest sell spike today in the NT indicator... this market is still holding up, but is beginning to show incipient signs of fatigue, at least for now, tomorrow will be important since we do have a major VP due to expire tomorrow and the market is currently below that price, see it mentioned directly below... but still, it would be smarter to go with the next lower major VP of 2094.301 for a sell confirmation, just to be more sure...

MAJOR - - 2099.07 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

securedownload

The LT (Long Term) indicator

For today's LT graph, we can see sell spikes have developed, more pronounced for the purple line which is now approaching the red line... clearly, this LT graph shows a market that is well in the over bought zone... one can argue that this market will move yet another 100 to 200 SP points over the next few months, but for now, this market is showing some wear...

securedownload (1)
securedownload (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - - 2061.99 (already reached)
minor - - 2070.03 (already reached)
minor - - 2070.85 (already reached)
minor - - 2096.08 (already reached)
minor - - 2056.29 (already reached)
Notice four major VP deadline due dates are within a few market days of each other, e.g., Friday, Monday, and Tuesday...
MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)
MAJOR - - 2099.07 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2107.02 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2232.46
For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 2015.65 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15 critical VP point

minor - - 2056.29

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2081.691

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2099.07 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.95 and must close below that price on Wednesday, March 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The APRIL Gold futures

The main model is now short the June gold from 1284.10 as of Thursday, January 29th...

For the April gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1210.20...

This market is now showing some signs of bottoming, but we still need to see a base develop, at least a main model buy signal... let's give this market another day or two to see how it holds at this current level... if you're a high risk aggressive trader and can be nimble enough, then this is probably a reasonable place to take a light long position...

For Thursday, a close above 1245.90 in the April Gold would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new long position with a close above 1245.90 but not above 1251.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This LT graph is showing some signs of a market attempting to bottom... especially, look at the second chart with the purple line, there's a jiggle type pattern occurring at a level where previous jiggle type patterns have developed, and all have developed at a low for the move... also, you can see the green price line appears to have broken out of a bullish type pennant and has now returned to test the break out point... today, the miners have posted an outside reversal day, which is also indicative of a market attempting to turn... again, high risk aggressive traders could attempt a long position here as long as you're nimble and hold a light position...

securedownload (3)
securedownload (4)

The following are the current downside VPs for APRIL gold...

minor - - 1159.65

MAJOR - - 1099.59 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 890.18 (NO TYPO, YES, I TRIPLE CHECKED)

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, February 18th

A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining and wants it back the minute it begins to rain.

* * * Mark Twain

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The March SP Futures

The main model is now long the March SP from 2041.90 as of Thursday, February 5th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2095.90...

If the time gap is going to have any effect on this market, then tomorrow is most likely the last chance, the effect typically has a two day reach...

We do have one major VP at 2099.07 with a deadline due date for Thursday, February 19th... this major VP has been listed for some time, we need to watch how the market behaves at this price, and tomorrow will be the perfect opportunity to observe...

If we do see a solid rally tomorrow morning, then be on the lookout for a possible mid morning or afternoon SP update to confirm a close below 2099.10...

For Wednesday, a close below 2094.40 would confirm a new main model sell signal...    
For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 2094.40 but not below 2088.40...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: The current EQ spread has been modified as follows, long 250 SPXL at 89.21592 and long 660 SPXU at 35.9071, this is perfectly balanced and without bias in either direction... as of today's close, this spread has a gain of $266.63...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Friday's buy spike remains well intact, although this market also remains well over bought for now...

securedownload

The LT (Long Term) indicator

As bullish as this market appears, the LT graph is showing some overbought fatigue... we can see the blue line continue higher while the purple turned slightly downward today... just keep an eye on the main model signal for direction...

securedownload (1)
securedownload (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - - 2061.99 (already reached)
minor - - 2070.03 (already reached)
minor - - 2070.85 (already reached)
minor - - 2096.08
Notice all four major VP deadline due dates are within a few market days of each other, e.g., Friday, Monday, and Tuesday...
MAJOR - - 2099.07 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2107.02 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 24th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2232.46
For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 2015.65 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15 critical VP point

minor - - 2056.29

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2081.691

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2099.07 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.95 and must close below that price on Wednesday, March 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The APRIL Gold futures

The main model is now short the June gold from 1284.10 as of Thursday, January 29th...

For the April gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1208.30...

For Wednesday, a close above 1245.90 in the April Gold would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new long position with a close above 1245.90 but not above 1251.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Well, this LT graph no longer looks so toppy, but only after a solid 80 dollar decline... but, no bottom yet... if this market doesn't bottom here, then it could go a lot lower...

securedownload (3)
securedownload (4)

The following are the current downside VPs for APRIL gold...

minor - - 1159.65

MAJOR - - 1099.59 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 890.18 (NO TYPO, YES, I TRIPLE CHECKED)

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, February 17th

Let me tell you about the economy. My hairline is in recession, my waistline is in inflation, and I'm in a depression.

* * * Rick Majerus

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

ALL U.S. MARKETS ARE CLOSED ON MONDAY TO OBSERVE PRESIDENT'S DAY, SEE YOU ON TUESDAY.

The March SP Futures

The main model is now long the March SP from 2041.90 as of Thursday, February 5th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2093.10...

A NOTE TO CONSIDER:

Since the markets are closed on Monday, this creates a time gap... yes, in addition to price gaps, there are also time gaps... time gaps tend to break the ongoing momentum... we can see this all the time in sports games, especially in football when the losing team would call a time out to break the winning momentum of the opposing team... time gaps break the pace of the game and can also break the ongoing sentiment of the market... it may take a day or two after the trading resumes for this interruption take full effect, if at all, but it's real and is something to consider...

For Tuesday, a close below 2081.70 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 2081.70 but not below 2075.70...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: The current EQ spread is as follows, long 200 SPXL at 88.4699 and long 520 SPXU at 36.1718, this is perfectly balanced and without bias in either direction... as of today's close, this spread has a gain of $225.08...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Yesterday's buy spike is still intact but still flirting with a semi over bought condition...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

While the trend is clearly higher, we can see that the LT graph is about to enter the over bought one... still plenty of room to go, but it's certainly not over sold any longer...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - - 2061.99 (already reached)
minor - - 2070.85 (already reached)
minor - - 2096.08
Notice all three major VP deadline due dates are within one market day of each other, e.g., Friday and then Monday...
MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2232.46
For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 2015.65 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15 critical VP point

minor - - 2056.29

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2081.691

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2099.07 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.95 and must close below that price on Wednesday, March 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The APRIL Gold futures

The main model is now short the June gold from 1284.10 as of Thursday, January 29th...

For the April gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1228.80...

Earlier this morning, the gold market triggered a buy signal some time after the morning gold update had been sent out... but, the signal was not confirmed on the close, so we remain short this market...

For Tuesday, a close above 1245.90 in the April Gold would confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, this confirmation price is somewhat higher than today's intended confirmation price... this market now needs some wiggle room to settle itself...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new long position with a close above 1245.90 but not above 1251.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Interesting buy spikes in the LT graph today, but no confirmation in price...

image (3)
image (4)

The following are the current downside VPs for APRIL gold...

minor - - 1159.65

MAJOR - - 1099.59 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 890.18 (NO TYPO, YES, I TRIPLE CHECKED)

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, February 13th

We never know the worth of water till the well is dry.

* * * Thomas Fuller

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The March SP Futures

The main model is now long the March SP from 2041.90 as of Thursday, February 5th...

Yesterday, long after the standard closing price was supposed to have been settled, the SP futures contract readjusted its closing price to 2065.70... that was below the 2072.00 earlier mentioned price...

That this market closed above 2077.40 today is significant... today's closing level now suggests this market has now cleared itself away from the tall weeds of recent weeks and may now currently be en route to new all time highs... let's see if this turns out to be the case...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2084.40...

For Friday, a close below 2051.80 would confirm a new main model sell signal... this is a key price and is still a good place to keep the sell confirmation price for another day or so...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 2051.80 but not below 2045.80...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: The current EQ spread is as follows, long 200 SPXL at 88.4699 and long 300 SPXU at 36.7199, this is biased now more aggressively to the bull side as of today... as of today's close, this spread has a gain of $172.08...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

As of today, we have a modest buy spike in the NT indicator... let's see if this develops into something more significant tomorrow...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

This LT graph is definitely a vision for sore eyes... a picture of health... well, for now, anyway... all lines are moving higher and the blue and the purple lines are both above the red line... what more can one ask for???

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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - - 2061.99 (already reached)
minor - - 2070.85 (already reached)
minor - - 2096.08
Notice all three major VP deadline due dates are within one market day of each other, e.g., Friday and then Monday...
MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2232.46
For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 2015.65 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15 critical VP point

minor - - 2056.29

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2099.07 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2130.95 and must close below that price on Wednesday, March 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The APRIL Gold futures

The main model is now short the June gold from 1284.10 as of Thursday, January 29th...

For the April gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1221.90... so far, a good short position...

For Friday, a close above 1284.40 in the April would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new long position with a close above 1284.40 but not above 1290.40...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Today's LT graph suggests a possible rally in gold, but not a buy signal at all... at this point, just a possible bear bounce... it could turn into something more later, but not right now...

securedownload (3)
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The following are the current downside VPs for APRIL gold...

minor - - 1159.65

MAJOR - - 1099.59 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 890.18 (NO TYPO, YES, I TRIPLE CHECKED)

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...