For Friday, January 30th

Budget: a mathematical confirmation of your suspicions.

* * * A.A. Latimer

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The March SP Futures

The main model is now long the March SP from 1995.90 as of Thursday, January 29th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2018.90 for the March contract...

Notice how today's low was 1982.50, just a few ticks under the VP at 1982.69 before it rallied higher without looking back... a mid day floor was established at 1988.10, therefore a close above 1988.10 would have been enough to confirm a new main model buy signal, but a close above two VPs certainly adds additional certainty, make that above three VP points since the last trade at 2018.90 is also above the 2015.66 VP...

This market still needs to move quickly to avoid missing the deadline due dates, but we'll see what this market can do tomorrow...

For Friday, a close below (yes, you guessed it) 1996.00 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders are now flat this market... enter a new short position with a close below 1996.00 but not below than 1990.00...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: Today, I again adjusted the VP EQ spread to a lightly bullish bias based on the newly confirmed buy signal... I'm still holding the original 200 SPXL at 85.25, but I closed out all the 1000 SPXS for a gain of $1210.52 for the move lower and added 300 SPXU at 40.8358...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT gives us a modest buy spike while in severely over sold territory... I'm not choosy, I'll take it... this market is more oversold now than it has been in more than nearly 3 years... if this were a normal market, I would think we could see a rally from here to new all time highs... okay, so I'm dreaming... it seems yesterday's downward impulse thrust was capitulation, after all...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

We actually have a well define buy spike in the LT graph today... it looks like all systems are go for launch!!! Now, we just need that launch!!!

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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2096.08

Notice all three major VP deadline due dates are within one market day of each other, e.g., Friday and then Monday...

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2232.46

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1971.42

minor - - 1976.56

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 1995.95 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

minor - - 2015.65 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

MAJOR - - 2031.95 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... the same due date (2 identical major VP due dates)

MAJOR - - 2041.99 and must close below that price on Friday, February 6th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

MAJOR - - 2051.76 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

minor - - 2056.29

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

MAJOR - - 2072.98 and must close below that price on Wednesday, February 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2081.619

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Friday, February 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2099.07 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The JUNE Gold futures

The main model is now short the June gold from 1284.10 as of Thursday, January 29th...

Okay, I realize the signal yesterday was for the February gold contract, but I'm now told that contract should not be traded so close to expiration, therefore I suggest rolling into the June contract at your earliest convenience... it seems June is more widely traded than April, so we'll go with the June...

For the June gold futures (not much difference between the June and February price), the last trade as of this writing is at 1259.00...

For Friday, a close above 1287.90 would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new long position with a close above 1287.90 but not above 1293.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Yesterday, I said this market looked like it was running out of steam... clearly, today, the LT lines are both moving sharply lower and both crossed the red line... even the red line turned lower today...

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The following are the current downside VPs for JUNE gold...

minor - - 1159.65

MAJOR - - 1099.59 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 890.18 (NO TYPO, YES, I TRIPLE CHECKED)

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Thursday, January 29th

Inflation is taxation without legislation.

* * * Milton Friedman

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The March SP Futures

The main model is now short the March SP from 2031.90 as of Wednesday, January 28th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1991.40 for the March contract... even with a typical whip slippage entering this new position, we're looking at more than 40 SP points from this morning's entry confirmation price...

Notice how this market stalled only momentarily at each VP point before falling below it... this shows impressive downward force for this market, I would suspect the selling may not be over for some time... in fact, the selling began after the market rallied its typical 10 to 12 points above the 2031.90 level... and then, from there, it was all down hill for this market, all 40 points of it...

Also, notice the deadline due dates for the major VP points, most all of them are coming due and this market is falling away from the respective VP points assigned to those dates... according to those dates, the time allotment for the current rally is running out... so, this market decline should not be too much of a surprise...

For Thursday, a close above 2031.90 1995.90 would confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, I'm also getting tired of that number (2031.90), but this price is that critical for this market right now...

For Hoban Rule traders are now flat this market... enter a new long position with a close above 2031.90 1995.90 but not higher than 2037.90 2001.90 ...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: Today, I adjusted the VP EQ spread to a lightly bearish bias based on the newly confirmed sell signal... the position is now 200 SPXL at 85.25 and 1000 SPXS at 20.867... as of today's close, this spread has a $247.00 gain...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Wow, this market is as over sold as it has been in more than 2 1/2 years, but longer term, the selling may only have just begun, this indicator shows a downward impulse thrust of considerable force... if so, then this is where big money is made on the short side... is this a significant market top??? Who knows...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph shows all lines now pointing lower and the red line also turned lower today... clearly, the momentum is downward...

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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

minor - - 1979.15

minor - - 1952.06

MAJOR - - 1944.808 and must close above that price on Monday, March 9th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1896.43 and must close above that price on Thursday, March 26th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1703.56

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1971.42

minor - - 1976.56

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 1995.95 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

minor - - 2015.65 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

MAJOR - - 2031.95 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... the same due date (2 identical major VP due dates)

MAJOR - - 2041.99 and must close below that price on Friday, February 6th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

MAJOR - - 2051.76 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

minor - - 2056.29

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

MAJOR - - 2072.98 and must close below that price on Wednesday, February 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2081.619

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Friday, February 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2099.07 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The February Gold futures

The main model is now long the February gold from 1284.10 as of Tuesday, January 27th...

For the February gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1284.90...

For Thursday, a close below 1284.90 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 1284.90 but not below 1278.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This market is seriously over bought and is also running out of steam...

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The following are the current upside VPs for FEBRUARY gold...

minor - - 1245.36 (already previously reached)

MAJOR - - 1276.44 and must close below that price on Monday, February 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already previously reached)

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1376.82

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, January 28th

Inflation hasn't ruined everything. A dime can still be used as a screwdriver.

* * * Groucho Marx

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

Today's late briefing is because I spoke with the CME to ensure the quotes given on the charts are true and accurate... I've had conversations with them before regarding the very same issue with the final quote for gold...

The March SP Futures

The main model is     now long the March SP from 2031.90 as of Tuesday, January 27th...

Two market updates were sent out today, this market moved all over the place... the sell signal was triggered when the market traded below 2042.00 per the first SP update, but then the close above 2031.90 confirmed yet another buy signal per the second SP update... this market can do whatever it wants, but it cannot go very far without the main model being on board... in the final 15 minutes after the main stock exchanges closed, the futures rallied and confirmed the buy signal... how dramatic...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2034.40 for the March contract...

For Wednesday, a close below 2031.90 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders are now long this market at about 2036.60... enter a sell stop to go flat at 2029.90... enter a new short position with a close below 2031.90 but not lower than 2024.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: Today, I adjusted the new VP EQ spread to a lightly bullish bias late in the afternoon considering the newly confirmed buy signal... the position is now 200 SPXL at 86.59 and 350 SPXU at 38.3692... earlier in the day, the bias was more heavily toward the bear side however I sold 250 SPXU for a gain of $86.15...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator is still moving lower, but not yet into the over sold zone...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

As of today, all the indicators are moving lower, this includes the red line... and both the blue and purple lines have now stopped at the red line without crossing over...

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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2096.08

Notice all three major VP deadline due dates are within one market day of each other, e.g., Friday and then Monday...

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2232.46

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1971.42

minor - - 1976.56

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 1995.95 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

minor - - 2015.65 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

MAJOR - - 2031.95 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... the same due date (2 identical major VP due dates)

MAJOR - - 2041.99 and must close below that price on Friday, February 6th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

MAJOR - - 2051.76 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

minor - - 2056.29

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

MAJOR - - 2072.98 and must close below that price on Wednesday, February 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2081.619

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Friday, February 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2099.07 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The February Gold futures

The main model is now long the February gold from 1284.10 as of Tuesday, January 27th...

For the February gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1291.70...

The update today was sent for a confirmed buy above 1276.40, but by the time the update was sent out, the market was already higher... therefore, the main model will accept the higher price for the official long position despite that the market may have sold lower subsequent to the update...

For Wednesday , a close below 1272.10 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 1272.10 but not above 1266.10...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This market is still very much over bought, but considering this market is on what appears to be a legitimate upwards thrusting break out, this market can appear over bought for a long time while still moving higher...

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The following are the current upside VPs for FEBRUARY gold...

minor - - 1245.36 (already previously reached)

MAJOR - - 1276.44 and must close below that price on Monday, February 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already previously reached)

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1376.82

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, January 27th

Inflation hasn't ruined everything. A dime can still be used as a screwdriver.

* * * Groucho Marx

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

the March SP Futures

The main model is now long the March SP from 2051.80 as of Monday, January 26th...

An afternoon SP update was sent out since the market was not able to move above the 2051.70 VP level... but, clearly, after the main market closed, the futures staged a rally to take the price over the top and confirm the updated buy signal confirmation price...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2053.40 for the March contract...

Notice how yesterday's evening low broke below the 2031.95 VP and then rallied from there... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP points...

 

This Tuesday Afternoon SP update is in addition to this morning's SP update...

The main model issued a sell alert this morning with a close today below 2042.00... the market sold down and has now recovered some ...

Therefore:

Just in case...

For Tuesday, a close above 2031.90 would confirm a new main model buy signal ... the market is currently trading at 2030.70...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new long position with a close above 2031.90 but not above 2037.90...

Reference the 2031.95 major VP

For Tuesday, a close below 2042.00 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders are now long this market from about 2053.40 on today's close, enter a sell stop to go flat at 20040.00, also enter a new short position on the close below 2042.00 but not lower than 2036.00 ...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: Today, I adjusted the new VP EQ spread to a lightly bullish bias considering the newly confirmed buy signal... the position is now 200 SPXL at 86.59 and 400 SPXU at 37.99... on today's close, this spread has a gain of $20.00... we'll let this spread run for a while and take a look at it again later...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator is giving a modest buy spike today... let's see if it develops into something more tomorrow...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph shows all the lines now moving higher, this includes the red line, and both the blue and purple lines are above the red line... this is a promising picture for a continued rally from here... yesterday's sell signal was a one day wonder which could easily have turned into something more... the recovery from last night's sharply lower opening is certainly impressive...

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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2096.08

Notice all three major VP deadline due dates are within one market day of each other, e.g., Friday and then Monday...

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2232.46

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1971.42

minor - - 1976.56

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 1995.95 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

minor - - 2015.65 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

MAJOR - - 2031.95 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... the same due date (2 identical major VP due dates)

MAJOR - - 2041.99 and must close below that price on Friday, February 6th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

MAJOR - - 2051.76 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

minor - - 2056.29

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

MAJOR - - 2072.98 and must close below that price on Wednesday, February 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2081.619

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Friday, February 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2099.07 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

the February Gold futures

The main model is now short the February gold from 1292.60 as of Monday, January 26th...

For the February gold futures, the market closed at 1284.10...

For Tuesday, a close above 1276.40 would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders,

Hoban Rule traders are now flat this market... enter a new long position with a close above 1276.40 but not above 1282.40 ...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

We can clearly see the extremely over bought market begin to deflate... considering the powerful upsurge we witnessed recently in this market, I would suspect this pull back would be bought by new buyers at some point soon... if you noticed today, the low for this market stopped right at the major VP point, or very close to it... if this market resumes its rally tomorrow, then we want to be on board... and of course, if the selling continues tomorrow, then we're already short this market...

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The following are the current downside VPs for FEBRUARY gold...

minor - - 1157.95

MAJOR - - 1091.23 and must close above that price on Monday, April 27th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1076.82

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Monday, January 26th

Don't worry about the world coming to an end today. It is already tomorrow in Australia.

* * * Charles Schulz

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

The March SP Futures

The main model is now short the March SP from 2051.80 as of Friday, January 23rd...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2043.40 for the March contract...

Notice how this market paused at each and every higher VP point along the route... today's high of 2062.00 just barely touched the overhead minor VP at 2061.99 before selling down and never looking back... this market has been going like gangbusters higher through one VP point after another, but apparently, today, it may have run out of steam...

For Monday, a close above 2051.80 would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders are currently flat, enter a new long position with a close above 2051.80 but not above 2057.80...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: Today, I entered into a new VP EQ spread... this spread is balanced with a slightly bearish bias due to today's newly confirmed sell signal... 100 SPXL at 87.56 and 300 SPXU at 37.61367... the gains for this kind of spread are slow yet steady while it makes no difference which way the market itself is moving... I find this intriguing...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Today, we see a clearly defined sell spike in deeply over bought territory...

securedownload

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Sell spikes in the LT graph, as well... everything is lined up with today's confirmed sell signal...

securedownload (1)
securedownload (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

minor - - 1979.15

minor - - 1952.06

MAJOR - - 1944.808 and must close above that price on Monday, March 9th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1896.43 and must close above that price on Thursday, March 26th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1703.56 EGADS!!!

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1971.42

minor - - 1976.56

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 1995.95 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

minor - - 2015.65 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

MAJOR - - 2031.95 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... the same due date (2 identical major VP due dates)

MAJOR - - 2041.99 and must close below that price on Friday, February 6th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

MAJOR - - 2051.76 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

minor - - 2056.29

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

MAJOR - - 2072.98 and must close below that price on Wednesday, February 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2081.619

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Friday, February 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2096.08

MAJOR - - 2099.07 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The February Gold futures

The main model is now long the February gold from 1224.90 as of Monday, January 12th...

For the February gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1294.70...

For Monday, a close below 1292.60 in the FEBRUARY gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

Hoban Rule traders are now flat this market... enter a short long position in February Gold with a close below 1292.60 but not below than 1286.60 ...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Today, we see the sell spikes more well developed... considering that these sell spikes have formed in hyper over bought territory, one could expect to see this market begin to move lower near term... yet, the main model sell signal allows for some wiggle room all the way down to the major VP point some 20 dollars lower... this is okay since this market is bound to be somewhat volatile over the next few days, the wiggle room is what this market needs to avoid getting whipped for no good reason...

securedownload (3)
securedownload (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for FEBRUARY gold...

minor - - 1245.36 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1276.44 and must close below that price on Monday, February 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1376.82

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, January 23rd

If you're running ahead of the pack, just look back every now and then to make sure it's still there.

* * * Will Rogers

The March SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now long the March SP from 1995.90 as of Friday, January 16th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2057.40 for the March contract...

Notice how this market pauses at each and every VP point along the route... but these VP points only cause some price turbulence, not much more than that... this is bullish...

For Friday, a close below 2051.80 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 2051.80 but not below 2045.80 ...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: No spreads on at this time... I've found the VP equilibrium spread to be reliable to generate gains... the gains are slow yet steady while it makes no difference which way the market itself is moving... I find this intriguing...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

This indicator continues higher, now entering the over bought zone...

securedownload

The LT (Long Term) indicator

This is a good looking LT graph... everything is pointing higher, even the red line turned upward today... and considering that this market has only paused momentarily at each VP point, including the major VP points, the overall picture for this market is healthy and bullish...

securedownload (1)
securedownload (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2096.08

Notice all three major VP deadline due dates are within one market day of each other, e.g., Friday and then Monday...

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2232.46

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1971.42

minor - - 1976.56

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 1995.95 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

minor - - 2015.65 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

MAJOR - - 2031.95 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... the same due date (2 identical major VP due dates)

MAJOR - - 2041.99 and must close below that price on Friday, February 6th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

MAJOR - - 2051.76 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

minor - - 2056.29

MAJOR - - 2072.98 and must close below that price on Wednesday, February 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2081.619

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Friday, February 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2099.07 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The February Gold futures

The main model is now long the February gold from 1224.90 as of Monday, January 12th...

For the February gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1302.00...

Certainly, an impressive rally so far...

For Friday, a close below 1275.90 in the FEBRUARY gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

Hoban Rule traders are now flat this market... enter a short long position in February Gold with a close below 1275.90 but not below than 1269.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Okay, partner, reach for the sky... at least, this is what the blue line is doing, the purple line is giving a sell spike in deeply over bought territory... this doesn't mean gold can't move higher from here, but just realize this market is now well extended above its major VP and now the LT graph is also flashing a warning that this market has not been this over bought at least since June of 2012...

securedownload (3)
securedownload (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for FEBRUARY gold...

minor - - 1245.36 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1276.44 and must close below that price on Monday, February 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1376.82

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Thursday, January 22nd

The surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that it has never tried to contact us.

* * * Bill Watterson

The March SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now long the March SP from 1995.90 as of Friday, January 16th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2027.10 for the March contract...

Here we go again... today's high was at 2031.80, that's just where the major VP at 2031.95 is sitting above the market... this market is alike a pin ball bouncing between VP points... incredible!!!

We had a close brush with a possible sell signal being triggered below the 2015.65 VP point...

For Thursday, a close below 2032.00 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new short position with a close below 2032.00 but not below 2026.00 ...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: I've found the VP equilibrium spread to be reliable to generate gains... the gains are slow yet steady while it makes no difference which way the market itself is moving... I find this intriguing...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator continues higher and is now beginning to enter the over bought zone... however, no sell spike yet...

securedownload

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Both the blue and purple lines crossed above the red line today... so far, all looks good for tomorrow despite the choppiness of this current market...

securedownload (1)
securedownload (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2096.08

Notice all three major VP deadline due dates are within one market day of each other, e.g., Friday and then Monday...

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2232.46

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1971.42

minor - - 1976.56

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 1995.95 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

minor - - 2015.65 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

MAJOR - - 2031.95 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... the same due date (2 identical major VP due dates)

MAJOR - - 2041.99 and must close below that price on Friday, February 6th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

MAJOR - - 2051.76 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

minor - - 2056.29

MAJOR - - 2072.98 and must close below that price on Wednesday, February 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2081.619

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Friday, February 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2099.07 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The February Gold futures

The main model is now long the February gold from 1224.90 as of Monday, January 12th...

For the February gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1293.70...

Once again, this market is well above its major VP point... while it's beginning to look like a legitimate break out higher, this doesn't dismiss the fact that this market is now well over bought at the moment... so, be prepared for some selling to hit this market, but it would also seems that the selling may well be met with fresh buying... the fact that this market has traveled well above its major VP point long before the VP due date suggests this market has more to go on the upside...

For Thursday, a close below 1275.90 in the FEBRUARY gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

Hoban Rule traders are now flat this market... enter a short long position in February Gold with a close below 1275.90 but not below than 1269.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Well, today's mini sell spike was to be expected after such a rally into deep over bought territory... let's see how this fares over the next few days...

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The following are the current upside VPs for FEBRUARY gold...

minor - - 1245.36 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1276.44 and must close below that price on Monday, February 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1376.82

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, January 21st

A celebrity is a person who works hard all his life to become well known, and then wears dark glasses to avoid being recognized.

* * * Fred Allen

Here's hoping everyone had a pleasant 3 day weekend...

The March SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now long the March SP from 1995.90 as of Friday, January 16th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2016.60 for the March contract...

Notice how the entire trading range today was within the 2015.65 and the 1995.95 VP points... sort of land locked, but this market is likely to break out of this range very soon...

For Wednesday, a close below 2015.70 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The Hoban Rule traders are currently flat this market... for Wednesday, enter a new short position with a close below 2015.70 but not below 2009.70 ...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: The SPXL/SPXU spread was closed out today at virtually break even...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator continues higher, yet not quite into the over bought zone...

securedownload

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph also continues higher... the bias here is higher, but we also want to see the red line turn upward...

securedownload (1)
securedownload (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2096.08

Notice all three major VP deadline due dates are within one market day of each other, e.g., Friday and then Monday...

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2232.46

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1971.42

minor - - 1976.56

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 1995.95 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

minor - - 2015.65 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

MAJOR - - 2031.95 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... the same due date (2 identical major VP due dates)

MAJOR - - 2041.99 and must close below that price on Friday, February 6th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

MAJOR - - 2051.76 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

minor - - 2056.29

MAJOR - - 2072.98 and must close below that price on Wednesday, February 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2081.619

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Friday, February 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2099.07 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The February Gold futures

The main model is now long the February gold from 1224.90 as of Monday, January 12th...

For the February gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1293.90...

This market is well above its major VP point... it's beginning to look like a legitimate break out higher, but this doesn't dismiss the fact that this market is now well over bought at the moment... so, be prepared for some selling to hit this market, but it would also seems that the selling may well be met with fresh buying... the fact that this market has traveled well above its major VP point long before the VP due date suggests this market has more to go on the upside...

For Wednesday, a close below 1275.90 in the FEBRUARY gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

Hoban Rule traders are now flat this market... enter a short long position in February Gold with a close below 1275.90 but not below than 1269.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Just look at how over bought the blue line is... this line shows that gold is now more over bought than it was in the past 2 1/2 years when gold topped out above 1420...

securedownload (3)
securedownload (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for FEBRUARY gold...

minor - - 1245.36 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1276.44 and must close below that price on Monday, February 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1376.82

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, January 20th

"Winning is a habit. Unfortunately, so is losing."

- - - Vince Lombardi

The March SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

THE U.S. MARKETS ARE CLOSED ON MONDAY FOR A HOLIDAY, THEREFORE THERE WILL BE NO EVENING BRIEFING MONDAY EVENING...

The main model is now long the March SP from 1995.90 as of Friday, January 16th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2013.10 for the March contract...

For Tuesday, a close below 1995.90 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The Hoban Rule traders are currently flat this market... for Tuesday, enter a new short position with a close below 1995.90 but not below 1989.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: Today, the SOXL/SOXS spread was closed out virtually at break even... however, based on the newly confirmed buy signal for the SP today, I doubled down on the SPXL/SPXU spread as follows: long 200 SPXL at 81.08 and long 200 SPXU at 40.9212, this SP ETF spread now has a bullish bias...

We'll keep monitoring this experimental spread...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

We have a clear buy spike for the NT indicator today... this is encouraging since we also have a newly confirmed main model buy signal today...

securedownload

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Look at this!!! We also have clearly defined buy spikes in the LT graph, as well... how nice!!!

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securedownload (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

minor - - 2061.99

minor - - 2070.85

minor - - 2096.08

Notice all three major VP deadline due dates are within one market day of each other, e.g., Friday and then Monday...

MAJOR - - 2106.61 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Monday, March 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2141.08 and must close below that price on Friday, March 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2232.46

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

The following VPs are old, but are still active...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates expire and can therefore still cause price turbulence while trading through theses prices... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1971.42

minor - - 1976.56

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 1995.95 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

minor - - 2015.65 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

MAJOR - - 2031.95 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... the same due date (2 identical major VP due dates)

MAJOR - - 2041.99 and must close below that price on Friday, February 6th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

MAJOR - - 2051.76 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

minor - - 2056.29

MAJOR - - 2072.98 and must close below that price on Wednesday, February 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2081.619

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Friday, February 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2099.07 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The February Gold futures

The main model is now long the February gold from 1224.90 as of Monday, January 12th...

For the February gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1275.90...

Today's high was 1282.40... this means gold has reached its major VP and closed below it... clearly, as all VPs suggest, this market has also likely reached its exhaustion point...

For Tuesday, a close below 1275.90 in the FEBRUARY gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

Hoban Rule traders are now flat this market... enter a short long position in February Gold with a close below 1275.90 but not below than 1269.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

As we can see from this LT graph, the gold market is now as over bought as it has been in more than 2 1/2 years when gold topped out at above 1420 or so and never look back... I believe caution with this market is well advised...

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The following are the current upside VPs for FEBRUARY gold...

minor - - 1245.36 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1276.44 and must close below that price on Monday, February 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1376.82

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, January 16th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."

- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.

The March SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now short the March SP from 2050.20 as of Friday, January 9th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1989.10 for the March contract...

Today we have a new low close for this sell off... in the early morning hours, this market rallied all the way to 2026.80 before selling back down... that was the second spectacular signal rejection in two consecutive days... this has to be disappointing to those holding long positions right now...

For Friday, a close above 1995.90 (was 2015.60) would confirm a new main model buy signal... that was doable today, but now it seems so far away...

For Hoban Rule traders, enter a new long position with a close above 2015.60 but not above 2021.60...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium spread: There are now two spreads af of today... the SPXL/SPXU spread was re-balanced and reconfigured without any long or short bias... this spread is now long 100 SPXL at 81.28 and long 200 SPXU at 40.81... the SOXL/SOXS spread was entered today with 100 SOXL at 122.7799 and 852 SOXS at 14.4099, this spread is also precisely balanced with no bias... these spread will not be re-balanced and will be allowed to run untouched for several weeks to see how it does...

We'll keep monitoring these experimental spreads...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

An ever so slight up tick, it hardly qualifies as a buy spike, so expect some buying temporarily, at least, maybe overnight... oddly enough, according to this NT indicator, this market is still not oversold...

securedownload

The LT (Long Term) indicator

This LT graph shows everything moving lower and pointing straight down for now... clearly, the momentum is downward for now...

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securedownload (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the MARCH SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

minor - - 1952.06

MAJOR - - 1896.43 and must close above that price on Thursday, March 26th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1703.56 EGADS!!!

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

ADDITIONAL INFO ON VP POINTS ARE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE...

Notice how the market is bouncing from one VP point to the other...

Directly below are ALL the other recent upside AND downside VPs for the MARCH SP as the market traded through them... the market moved through these VP points on the way up, they can also effect the market on the way down, as well... these are listed because as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets as it trades lower on the current sell signal... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are above and below the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

NOTE: As time passes, the effectiveness of these older VP points may be less effective but are still active until their due dates and can therefore still cause price turbulence en route... do not dismiss them too quickly...

minor - - 1971.42

minor - - 1976.56

minor - - 1982.69

minor - - 1995.95 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

minor - - 2015.65 previous buy confirmation price for 1/7/15

MAJOR - - 2031.95 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... the same due date (2 identical major VP due dates)

MAJOR - - 2041.99 and must close below that price on Friday, February 6th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

MAJOR - - 2051.76 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... almost the same due date

minor - - 2056.29

MAJOR - - 2072.98 and must close below that price on Wednesday, February 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2081.619

MAJOR - - 2094.301 and must close below that price on Friday, February 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2099.07 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 19th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2125.608 and must close below that price on Tuesday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

The February Gold futures

The main model is now long the February gold from 1224.90 as of Monday, January 12th...

For the February gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1258.70...

Well, after the third attempt, this market was finally above to reach the initial VP, and then some... yesterday, I said a rally tomorrow is needed for this market to stay ahead of itself... apparently, it heard me...

For Friday, a close below 1245.40 in the FEBRUARY gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

Hoban Rule traders are now flat this market... enter a short long position in February Gold with a close below 1245.40 but not below than 1239.40...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Well, if this LT graph looked toppy yesterday, it looks even more toppy today... it also now looks like a breakout impulse thrust, although this market has now over reached its initial VP point... this is bullish... let's see what it does over the next few days, some profit taking should be expected, but we don't want to see this market close back below the VP point... this means we need to see buying coming in under this market in order to hold it up...

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The following are the current upside VPs for FEBRUARY gold...

minor - - 1245.36 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1276.44 and must close below that price on Monday, February 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1376.82

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...