For Monday, December 1st

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."

- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is currently long the December SP from 2063.90 as of Monday, November 24th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2066.60...

For Monday, a close below 2063.90 would confirm a new main model sell signal... so, is it any wonder that today's low is 2064.00...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently long this market from 2067.40... place a protective sell stop to close out this long position at 2061.90 to go flat... also, enter a new short position if the market closes on Monday below 2063.90 but not below 2057.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

IMPORTANT NOTE: This is an experimental equilibrium spread and is being monitored very closely... as of this morning, I realigned the balance of this spread back to a zero equilibrium status since the market is now above the highest major VP... I'm long 100 UPRO at 131.33 and long 360 SPXU at 39.18... I'll explain the math in the coming days... however, simply stated, this spread should generate a gain regardless of whether this market now moves higher or lower... so, we'll see... as of today, this spread has a $7.00 gain... let's see how this spread play itself out over the next week or two, and then we'll reassess...

Also, as of this morning, I also entered a second VP equilibrium spread... I'm long 200 SPXL at 89.56 and long 475 SPXU at 38.11... as of now, this spread has a $11.00 loss... this spread will also be followed closely...

I will try to send out an email this weekend explaining the elements, the theory, the application, and use of this spread... this is a very slow moving spread, I like it... I see no losses for this spread over time other than on the day the spread itself is actually placed since it's difficult to enter both sides of the spread perfectly... however, over time, this spread appears to generate profits regardless of which direction the market itself is moving... what can be better than that???

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator is actually beginning to approach the oversold zone...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph is beginning to turn lower, the blue line is barely hovering above the red line as of today's close... the purple line has already gone south of the border weeks ago... definitely, this market is looking heavy...

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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

MAJOR - - 2063.89 and must close below that price on Wednesday, December 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)

MONDAY'S CEILING PRICE - - 2078.73 THIS MARKET IS NOW GETTING CLOSE TO THIS CEILING PRICE

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now short the December gold from 1207.60 as of Monday, November 24th... although the market hasn't reached that price, the main model is using this price to represent where the sell confirmation signal actually was placed for today...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1167.10... EGADS!!! What happened to this market!!! Thank goodness, we're short!!!

For Monday, a close above 1205.60 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

Hoban Rule traders are now short this market as of Wednesday at 1197.00... for Monday, place a buy stop to cover the short position at 1207.60 to go flat... also, enter a new long position with a close above 1205.60 but not higher than 1211.60...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This LT graph says it all... we can see the descending blue peaks, and as of today it crossed below the red line which is also now pointing lower... the momentum has clearly moved to the bear side of this market after coming within whispering distance of the major inflection point at 1205.00... please take notice of the new downside VP points for this market, listed below...

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The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold... ALL NEW VP PRICES FOR GOLD AS OF TODAY

minor - - 1172.59 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1157.05 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 16th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1125.58

MAJOR - - 1092.04 and must close above that price on Wednesday, January 7th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1100.12

MEGA FLOOR PRICE - - 958.21 OMG!!!

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, November 28th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."

- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is currently long the December SP from 2063.90 as of Monday, November 24th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2072.10...

The U.S. markets are closed to observe Thanksgiving Day...

For Friday, a close below 2063.90 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently long this market from 2067.40... place a protective sell stop to close out this long position at 2061.90 to go flat... also, enter a new short position if the market closes on Thursday below 2063.90 but not below 2057.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

IMPORTANT NOTE: This is an experimental equilibrium spread and is being monitored very closely... I'm long 100 UPRO at 131.33 and long 335 SPXU at 39.27... I'll explain the math in the coming days... however, simply stated, this spread should generate a gain regardless of whether this market now moves higher or lower... so, we'll see... as of today, this spread has a -$0.85 loss (now almost even on this spread)... let's see how this spread play itself out over the next week or two, and then we'll reassess...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Despite the rally today, the NT continues lower... this actually seems positive right now since the NT is no longer in the over bought zone...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph is clearly way over bought, but this market is beginning to appear much like a runaway market or blow off top type pattern, or both... if so, in either case, then this market could still run higher for many miles... besides, this is now the beginning of the bullish 6 month season for this market, so this market now has a strong tailwind to keep the rally going... as we can see, this market only "pauses" at the major VP points... this is unlike the typical market that stops completely at these major VP points... always, how the market behaves at these VP points gives us an opportunity to read the strength and/or weakness of the market itself... and based on the action at these VP point, this market is saying it wants to go much higher from here... so, we remain long and happy until it turns on us...

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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

MAJOR - - 2063.89 and must close below that price on Wednesday, December 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)

THURSDAY'S CEILING PRICE - - 2084.14 GETTING CLOSE TO THIS CEILING PRICE

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now short the December gold from 1207.60 as of Monday, November 24th... although the market hasn't reached that price, the main model is using this price to represent where the sell confirmation signal actually was placed for today...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1197.000...

For Thursday, a close above 1202.30 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

Hoban Rule traders are now short this market as of today at 1197.00... for Thursday, place a buy stop to cover the short position at 1204.30 to go flat... also, enter a new long position with a close above 1202.30 but not higher than 1208.30...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The gold miners experimental equilibrium spread was closed out today with a gain of $88.00... this particular spread will remain under close study...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This LT graph continues to look toppy right here... the gold market is currently poised at a major inflection point, any legitimate rally from this current level will turn the trend higher... however, until that happens, the trend is lower for now and we remain short this market...

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The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1177.70 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1147.17 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal... (already reached)

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1068.32

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, November 26th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."
 
- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.
The December SP Futures
 
A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
 
 
The main model is currently long  the December SP from 2063.90 as of Monday, November 24th...
The last trade as of this writing is at 2067.90...  
 
For Wednesday, a close below 2063.90 would confirm a new main model sell signal...   
For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently long this market from 2067.40...  place a protective sell stop to close out this long position at 2061.90 to go flat...  also, enter a new short position if the market closes on Wednesday below 2063.90 but not below 2057.90...  
 
The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals...  this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition...  please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...
 
IMPORTANT NOTE: This is an experimental equilibrium spread and is being monitored very closely...  I'm long 100 UPRO at 131.33 and long 335 SPXU at 39.27...  I'll explain the math in the coming days...  however, simply stated, this spread should generate a gain regardless of whether this market now moves higher or lower...  so, we'll see...  as of today, this spread has a $7.10 loss...  let's see how this spread play itself out over the next week or two, and then we'll reassess...
 
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator  (the red line)
The markets treads water while the NT indicator is moving lower...  this suggests that there is more selling than buying at this point...  but again, as long as this market doesn't break down, we could still look for higher prices...  just keep your eye on the main model sell confirmation price...
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The LT (Long Term) indicator
Another mini sell spike in the blue line today, and also in the purple line...  it won't take much to take the blue line down below the red line, but until that happens, we'll just stay long...
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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
The following are the current upside VPs for the DECEMBER SP...  the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point...   please note, I include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
 
MAJOR - - 2063.89 and must close below that price on Wednesday, December 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...  (already reached)
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2090.33  GETTING CLOSE TO THIS CEILING PRICE  
 
For now, the main model remains long  the SP...
 
The December Gold futures
The main model is now short the December gold from 1207.600 as of Monday, November 24th...     although the market hasn't reached that price, the main model is using this price to represent where the sell confirmation signal actually was placed for today...
For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1200.70...
For Wednesday, a close above 1202.30 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...   
 
Hoban Rule traders are now flat this market...  for Wednesday, enter a new long position with a close above 1202.30 but not higher than 1208.30...  
 
The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals...  this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition...  please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...
AN INTERESTING NOTE:  The gold miners experimental equilibrium spread was re-balanced today...  the position is now long 400 DUST at 25.23 and long 800 NUGT at 15.44...  this is another experimental equilibrium spread and will be monitored closely in the coming days...  this spread gained $200.00 today, but the spread was under water by $112.00 when both sides of this spread were finally placed...  therefore, at the current market price, this spread now has a gain of $88.00...
 
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
As clearly over bought as this market currently is, it's beginning to show some resilience...  another false start???  Who knows, but I will definitely not ignore a main model buy signal...
If you notice, the gold market sold down to the major downside VP of 1147.17 and then rallied from there without looking back...  unfortunately, I was away at the time, but some of you did notice the market action and were able to take full advantage of that dip...  I mention this only to remind you how important the major VP points are and they should never be dismissed too quickly...
As you scroll down this briefing, you will notice this all important major VP listed...
MAJOR - - 1147.17 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...  (already reached)
unnamed (3)
unnamed (4)
The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...
minor - - 1177.70  (already reached)
MAJOR - - 1147.17 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...  (already reached)
 
TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1068.32
For now, the main model remains short gold...
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...  also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 

The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...   
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
THE HOBAN RULE
 
The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals...  using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...  this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...
 
For gold, each point is one dollar...
 
To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:
 
1)  The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and
 
2)  The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...
 
Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information...   if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade...  or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF...  or you can simply take the trade the following morning...
 
However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...
 
In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:
 
1)  Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...
 
To exit the trade:
 
1)  Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price...  if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...
 
2)  If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...
 
3)  If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...
 
4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price...  but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...
 
Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close...  and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...
 
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

For Tuesday, November 25th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."
 
- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.
The December SP Futures
 
A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
 
 
The main model is now officially long  the December SP from 2063.90 as of Monday, November 24th...
The market sold down below the 2063.90 major VP, but then quickly turned higher again...  it looks like this market doesn't know how to go down...  it seems so unnatural to take a new long position at this level, but I'm not going to argue with the main model signals...
 
The last trade as of this writing is at 2067.40...  
 
For Tuesday, a close below 2063.90 would confirm a new main model sell signal...   
For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently long this market from 2067.40...  place a protective sell stop to close out this long position at 2061.90 to go flat...  also, enter a new short position if the market closes on Tuesday below 2063.90 but not below 2057.90...  
 
The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals...  this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition...  please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...
 
IMPORTANT NOTE: This is an experimental equilibrium spread and is being monitored very closely...  I'm long 100 UPRO at 131.33 and long 335 SPXU at 39.27...  I'll explain the math in the coming days...  however, simply stated, this spread should generate a gain regardless of whether this market now moves higher or lower...  so, we'll see...  as of today, this spread has a $6.50 loss...  let's see how this spread play itself out over the next week or two, and then we'll reassess...
 
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator  (the red line)
The NT indicator has given a clear sell spike today, so expect some possible weakness early on...  we can see that the NT line is choppy and still rising overall...
unnamed
The LT (Long Term) indicator
As over bought as this market appears on this LT graph, all lines are still moving higher...  this gives the appearance of a blow off top, but this kind of thing could run for another 500 SP points...  so, as long as this market is moving higher, we can say it's not moving lower until it does...
unnamed (1)
unnamed (2)
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
The following are the current upside VPs for the DECEMBER SP...  the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point...   please note, I include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
 
MAJOR - - 2063.89 and must close below that price on Wednesday, December 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...  (already reached)
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2199.89  
 
For now, the main model remains long  the SP...
 
The December Gold futures
The main model is now short the December gold from 1207.600 as of Monday, November 24th...     although the market hasn't reached that price, the main model is using this price to represent where the sell confirmation signal actually was placed for today...
For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1196.80...
For Tuesday , a close above 1207.00 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...   
 
Hoban Rule traders are now flat the gold market with a modest gain from the closed out short position...  
 
For Hoban Rule traders, on Tuesday enter a new short position with a close below 1196.60 but not lower than 1190.60...  
 
Also, for Hoban Rule traders, on Tuesday enter a new long position with a close above 1207.00 but not above 1213.00...
 
The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals...  this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition...  please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...
AN INTERESTING NOTE:  Another experimental equilibrium spread was entered today...  long 400 DUST at 25.23 and long 652 NUGT at 15.41...  this is another experimental equilibrium spread and will be monitored closely in the coming days...  at the current market price, this spread has a gain of $4.65...
 
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
This LT graph looks as toppy as the SP LT graph above, but we also have a sell spike forming in this graph...  looking at the blue line, you can almost see an overhead resistance line drawn across the previous blue peaks, the same for the purple line...  unless we get a buy signal tomorrow, it appears this market is likely to move lower once again...  the recent buy signal was very short lived...
unnamed (3)
unnamed (4)
The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...
minor - - 1177.70  (already reached)
MAJOR - - 1147.17 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...  (already reached)
 
TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1068.32
 
For now, the main model remains short gold...
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...  also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 

The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...   
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
THE HOBAN RULE
 
The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals...  using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...  this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...
 
For gold, each point is one dollar...
 
To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:
 
1)  The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and
 
2)  The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...
 
Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information...   if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade...  or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF...  or you can simply take the trade the following morning...
 
However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...
 
In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:
 
1)  Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...
 
To exit the trade:
 
1)  Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price...  if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...
 
2)  If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...
 
3)  If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...
 
4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price...  but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...
 
Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close...  and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...
 
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

For Monday, November 24th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."

- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now officially short the December SP from 2063.90 as of Friday, November 21st...

You may ask why the mid day update change... this morning, a new major VP price was generated at 2063.90... therefore, since the market had already rallied above that price, a close below it today would therefore confirm a new main model sell signal...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2062.40...

For Monday, a close above 2063.90 would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently short this market from 2062.40... place a protective buy stop to close out this short position at 2065.90 to go flat... also, enter a new long position if the market closes on Monday above 2063.90 but not above 2069.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

IMPORTANT NOTE: I will soon introduce and explain a market spread position which I discovered to be extremely low risk... since the market has now reached the major VP, I entered a VP Equilibrium spread position for myself yesterday to see how it goes... I'm long 100 UPRO at 131.33 and long 335 SPXU at 39.27... I'll explain the math in the coming days... however, simply stated, this spread should generate a gain regardless of whether this market now moves higher or lower... so, we'll see... as of today, this spread has a $1.95 loss... let's see how this spread play itself out over the next week or two, and then we'll reassess...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator continues inching higher today... no sell spike here, although this indicator shows an over bought market for now...

unnamed

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The blue line shows an extremely over bought market while the purple line appears to have more upside room to go...

unnamed (1)
unnamed (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

minor - - 2021.901

minor - - 1990.61

MAJOR - - 2002.16 and must close above that price on Wednesday, December 24th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1956.77 and must close above that price on Monday, January 5th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1816.22

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now long the December gold from 1197.10 as of Friday, November 21st...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1199.60...

For Monday, a close below 1207.60 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... yes, this is above today's close... in fact, and by pure coincidence, this is also today's high... therefore, the gold market MUST continue sharply higher and quickly and close above 1207.60 on Monday to remain long, otherwise a sell signal will again be confirmed...

Hoban Rule traders, you are currently long this market from 1199.60... for Monday, place a sell stop to go flat at 1205.60... yes, this means gold must open significantly higher on Monday for the long position to remain intact... enter a new short position with a close below 1207.60 but not lower than 1201.60...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

The LT graph shows all systems pointing higher despite the obvious that this market is also now entering over bought territory... either way, the safest thing to do is to follow the signals and not think about it too much...

unnamed (3)
unnamed (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1265.42

MAJOR - - 1317.65 and must close below that price on Tuesday, January 27th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1486.48

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, November 21st

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."

- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now long the December SP from 1828.30 as of Wednesday, October 15th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2052.10...

For Friday, a close below 2046.90 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat... with a close tomorrow below 2046.90, enter a new short position, but not any lower than 2040.90...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

IMPORTANT NOTE: I will soon introduce and explain a market spread position which I discovered to be extremely low risk... since the market has now reached the major VP, I entered a VP Equilibrium spread position for myself yesterday to see how it goes... I'm long 100 UPRO at 131.33 and long 335 SPXU at 39.27... I'll explain the math in the coming days... however, simply stated, this spread should generate a gain regardless of whether this market now moves higher or lower... so, we'll see... as of today, this spread has a $6.20 loss... let's see how this spread play itself out over the next week or two, and then we'll reassess...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator gives us a modest sell spike today, but the main model signal was not confirmed... the model remains long for now...

unnamed

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph shows an interesting pattern... the blue line, while looking toppy, continues to hover above the red line... at this point, the market can still go in either direction, but that goes without saying... LOL!!!

unnamed (1)
unnamed (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

minor - - 1979.407 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 2046.901 and must close below that price on Friday, February 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2199.89

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now short the December gold from 1229.40 as of Wednesday, October 29th... this confirmed sell signal was generated in my absence, but the main model is now short nonetheless...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1195.20...

Can gold hang tough and give us a buy signal??? We'll see tomorrow...

For Friday, a close above 1197.10 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

Hoban Rule traders, for tomorrow, enter a new long position on a close above 1197.10 but not higher than than 1203.10...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This LT graph also looks curious... while a top of some sort appears to be developing, both indicator lines now show promise of continued strength... all we would need now is a confirmed buy signal to see this market move higher...

unnamed (3)
unnamed (4)

The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1177.70 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1147.17 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal... (already reached)

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1068.32

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Thursday, November 20th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."
 
- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.
The December SP Futures
 
A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
 
 
The main model is now long the December SP from 1828.30 as of Wednesday, October 15th...
The last trade as of this writing is at 2048.00...  
 
For Thursday, a close below 2046.90 would confirm a new main model sell signal...   
For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat... with a close tomorrow below 2046.90,  enter a new short position, but not any lower than 2040.90...  
 
The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals...  this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition...  please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...
 
IMPORTANT NOTE:  Within the next few days, I will introduce and explain a market spread position which I discovered to be extremely low risk...  since the market has now reached the major VP, I entered a VP Equilibrium spread position for myself today to see how it goes...  I'm long 100 UPRO at 131.33 and long 335 SPXU at 39.27...  I'll explain the math in the coming days...  however, simply stated, this spread should generate a gain regardless of whether this market now moves higher or lower...  so, we'll see...  as of today, this spread has a $7.20 loss...  hmmm, oh, well...  I'll let this play itself out for a week or so and then we'll reassess...
 
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator  (the red line)
The NT indicator remains in over bought territory and the indicator line itself has turned flat today...  this market is well over bought but the sell signal was not confirmed today...
unnamed
The LT (Long Term) indicator
The LT graph continues to look toppy...  we can see the early warning (purple) line already move down below the red line...  but, until we have a confirmed sell signal, this market still wants to move higher...
unnamed (1)
unnamed (2)
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
The following are the current upside VPs for the DECEMBER SP...  the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point...   please note, I include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
 
minor - - 1979.407  (already reached)
 
MAJOR - - 2046.901 and must close below that price on Friday, February 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...  (already reached)
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2199.89  
 
For now, the main model remains long  the SP...
 
 
 
The December Gold futures
The main model is now short the December gold from 1229.40 as of Wednesday, October 29th...    this confirmed sell signal was generated in my absence, but the main model is now short nonetheless...
For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1182.30...
Today, the gold market  was all over the place, but then tripped over itself and rolled down the stairs into the basement...  although a buy signal was trigger early this morning, that signal was quickly rejected by the market...  this is not encouraging for the bulls...
For Thursday, a close above 1197.10 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...   
 
Hoban Rule traders, for tomorrow, enter a new long position on a close above 1197.10 but not higher than than 1203.10...   
 
The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals...  this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition...  please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...
 
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
The LT graph has now turned toppy with a new sell spike issued for both the blue and purple lines...  with a rejected buy signal today, we remain comfortably short for now...  even the miners took a serious beating today...  take a look at the sequence of the four consecutive lower tops for the blue line...  this suggests that the gold market may well be in store for yet another hard down leg, although this is hard to believe considering the beating it has already taken this past year...  a firmer U.S. Dollar and with the European Central Banks also buying U.S. Dollars in a coordinated effort to keep their currency down, it makes for a difficult market environment for gold to do anything buy try to keep its head above water...  we may have to admit gold into the intensive care unit once again and keep it on life supports for a while longer...  hmmm, okay...
unnamed (3)
unnamed (4)
The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...
minor - - 1177.70  (already reached)
MAJOR - - 1147.17 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...  (already reached)
TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1068.32
 
For now, the main model remains short gold...
 
 
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...  also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 

The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...   
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
THE HOBAN RULE
 
The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals...  using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...  this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...
 
For gold, each point is one dollar...
 
To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:
 
1)  The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and
 
2)  The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...
 
Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information...   if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade...  or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF...  or you can simply take the trade the following morning...
 
However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...
 
In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:
 
1)  Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...
 
To exit the trade:
 
1)  Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price...  if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...
 
2)  If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...
 
3)  If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...
 
4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price...  but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...
 
Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close...  and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...
 
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

For Wednesday, November 19th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."
 
- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.
The December SP Futures
 
A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
 
 
The main model is now long the December SP from 1828.30 as of Wednesday, October 15th...
The last trade as of this writing is at 2048.40...  
 
For Wednesday, a close below 2046.90 would confirm a new main model sell signal...   the market is now trading at 2048.40...
 
For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat... with a close tomorrow below 2046.90,  enter a new short position, but not any lower than 2040.90...  
 
The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals...  this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition...  please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...
 
IMPORTANT NOTE:  Within the next few days, I will introduce and explain a market spread position which I discovered to be extremely low risk...  since the market has now reached the major VP, I entered a VP Equilibrium spread position for myself today to see how it goes...  I'm long 100 UPRO at 131.33 and long 335 SPXU at 39.27...  I'll explain the math in the coming days...  however, simply stated, this spread should generate a gain regardless of whether this market now moves higher or lower...  so, we'll see...
 
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator  (the red line)
Although the market has now reached the upside major VP, the NT indicator is still not seriously overbought...  let's see what tomorrow brings...
unnamed
The LT (Long Term) indicator
The LT graph is beginning to look seriously heavy...  this market is also now above the highest major VP...  this is not a safe place to take a new long position, just in case you were wondering...
unnamed (1)
unnamed (2)
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
The following are the current upside VPs for the DECEMBER SP...  the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point...   please note, I include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
 
minor - - 1979.407  (already reached)
 
MAJOR - - 2046.901 and must close below that price on Friday, February 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...  (already reached)
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2199.89  
 
For now, the main model remains long  the SP...
 
 
 
The December Gold futures
The main model is now short the December gold from 1229.40 as of Wednesday, October 29th...    this confirmed sell signal was generated in my absence, but the main model is now short nonetheless...
For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1196.50...
For Wednesday, a close above 1196.50 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...   
 
Hoban Rule traders, for tomorrow, enter a new long position on a close above 1196.50 but not higher than than 1202.60...   
 
The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals...  this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition...  please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...
 
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
The LT graph continues pointing higher...  despite the fact that this market is quickly entering overbought territory, it appears this market may have strong enough legs for a continued rally from here...  but, we first need to see a confirmation tomorrow...  this market did trade down below the downside major VP at 1147.17...  a close above that price subsequent to that downside penetration could have been bought by an alert trader...  I was not here to take that trade...  tomorrow is another opportunity, although a bit higher...
unnamed (3)
unnamed (4)
The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...
minor - - 1177.70  (already reached)
MAJOR - - 1147.17 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...  (already reached)
TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1068.32
 
For now, the main model remains short gold...
 
 
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...  also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 

The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...   
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
THE HOBAN RULE
 
The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals...  using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...  this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...
 
For gold, each point is one dollar...
 
To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:
 
1)  The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and
 
2)  The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...
 
Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information...   if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade...  or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF...  or you can simply take the trade the following morning...
 
However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...
 
In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:
 
1)  Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...
 
To exit the trade:
 
1)  Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price...  if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...
 
2)  If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...
 
3)  If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...
 
4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price...  but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...
 
Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close...  and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...
 
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 


For Tuesday, November 18th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."
 
- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.
I'm back!!!  We came back late, but just in the nick of time to see this market nearly complete a spectacular 220 SP point rally from the confirmed buy signal we had just before I left last month...  honestly, it almost looks planned...  LOLOL!!!!!
The December SP Futures
 
A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
 
 
The main model is now long the December SP from 1828.30 as of Wednesday, October 15th...
The last trade as of this writing is at 2038.80...  
 
For Tuesday, a close below 1944.80 (no typo) would confirm a new main model sell signal...    yes, that seems so far away, and this market is so close to the overhead major VP at 2046.901...  but, one must consider that this market rallied so quickly that it now has to allow time to catch up to price...  remember, time and price cannot be separated, much like time and space cannot be separated...   while space is typically measured in feet or miles or light years, in the case of these markets, space is measured in price...
For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market...  if the market closes tomorrow below  1944.80 but not lower  than 1938.80, then enter a new short position on the close...
The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals...  this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition...  please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...
 
IMPORTANT NOTE:  Within the next few days, I will introduce a market spread position which I discovered to be extremely low risk...  I'm not yet finished back testing this spread strategy, but it does look wonderfully promising...  while working on this spread strategy, I've been referring to it generically as the Vertical Price Equilibrium (VPE) spread, you may come up with another name for it...  after I tell you more about it and how to use it with the VP points, you're invited to offer your own name for this spread, I would love to hear what you would name it...  hopefully, by the end of this week it will be ready to use for those who want very minimal risk while still generating market gains...  more to come...
 
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator  (the red line)
Even after this recent market explosive rally, the NT indicator is still not overbought...  although, take a look at how the two previous major declines were preceded by a systematic pattern of rising lows before the bottom finally fell out...  the market rally off the most recent major low has again begun to develop that same pattern of higher and higher lows...
unnamed
The LT (Long Term) indicator
The NT indicator above may not yet be overbought, but clearly these LT lines are seriously over done right now...  this kind of volatility higher and lower could well be signs of a much broader topping action...  this remains to be seen, but markets don't typically like this kind of whip action for very long...
unnamed (1)
unnamed (2)
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
The following are the current upside VPs for the DECEMBER SP...  the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point...   please note, I include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
 
minor - - 1979.407  
 
MAJOR - - 2046.901 and must close above that price on Friday, February 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...  
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2199.89  
 
For now, the main model remains long  the SP...
 
 
 
The December Gold futures
The main model is now short the December gold from 1229.40 as of Wednesday, October 29th...    this confirmed sell signal was generated in my absence, but the main model is now short nonetheless...
For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1186.80...
For Tuesday, a close above 1226.60 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...   
 
Hoban Rule traders, for tomorrow, enter a new long position on a close above 1226.60 but not higher than than 1232.60...   
 
The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals...  this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition...  please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...
 
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
Despite the obvious fact that both the blue and purple lines are well above the red line, which is also rising, we can see that this market is currently overbought for now...  a pull back is in order and the main model is still short for now...
unnamed (3)
unnamed (4)
The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...
minor - - 1177.70  (already reached)
MAJOR - - 1147.17 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 2nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...  (already reached)
TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1068.32
 
For now, the main model remains short gold...
 
 
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...  also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 

The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...   
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
THE HOBAN RULE
 
The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals...  using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...  this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...
 
For gold, each point is one dollar...
 
To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:
 
1)  The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and
 
2)  The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...
 
Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information...   if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade...  or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF...  or you can simply take the trade the following morning...
 
However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...
 
In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:
 
1)  Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...
 
To exit the trade:
 
1)  Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price...  if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...
 
2)  If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...
 
3)  If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...
 
4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price...  but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...
 
Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close...  and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...
 
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...