For Friday, October 17th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."

- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.

This will be my last evening briefing until I return and resume the evening briefings on Monday, November 17th... each of your subscriptions has been extended for one month and two additional weeks beyond that month... my wife and I are looking forward to a wonderful vacation and time away from these markets... I wish each of you happiness and good health in my absence... thank you for allowing me the time off... see you all when we return...

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now long the December SP from 1828.30 as of Wednesday, October 15th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1850.60...

For Friday, a close below 1850.60 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... if the market closes tomorrow below 1850.60 but not lower than 1844.60, then enter a new short position on the close...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator shows no upside follow through today despite the fact that the markets were actually higher much of the day...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

The purple line is still holding above that pencil line shown yesterday, but any further weakness tomorrow may well take these lines lower again...

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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

minor - - 1979.407

MAJOR - - 2046.901 and must close above that price on Friday, February 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1978.34

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now long the December gold from 1194.50 as of Monday, October 6th...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1242.40...

For Friday, a close below 1237.20 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

Hoban Rule traders, for tomorrow, enter a new short position on close below 1237.20 but not lower than 1231.20...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

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unnamed (4)

The gold rally is now approaching over bought territory, although all the lines are still pointing higher... we'll just stay long until we get a sell...

The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1227.65 (already reached)

minor - - 1237.18 (already reached)

minor - - 1242.21 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1244.43 and must close below that price on Tuesday, November 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1257.21 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... Notice the same deadline date...

MAJOR - - 1263.99 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... Notice the same deadline date...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1342.21

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Thursday, October 16th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."

- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now long the December SP from 1828.30 as of Wednesday, October 15th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1846.50...

This market went into a free fall at the opening bell and the SP reached and traded down through the lowest major VP of 1828.30... at that point, an SP update was issued...

For Thursday , a close below 1814.40 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... if the market closes tomorrow below 1814.40 but not lower than 1808.40, then enter a new short position on the close...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator has given us a buy spike today... buying in a market that looks so wear is a bit scary... but, I take every confirmed signal...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

Look at that pencil line drawn beneath those three purple bottom spikes... hmmm, we'll see if we have some legitimate follow through tomorrow...

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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

minor - - 1979.407

MAJOR - - 2046.12 and must close above that price on Monday, February 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1978.34

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now long the December gold from 1194.50 as of Monday, October 6th...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1242.40...

We're now in the vicinity of several VPs, so expect to see some possible selling in this area tomorrow, no real selling today...

For Thursday, a close below 1237.20 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

Hoban Rule traders, you were stopped out today... for tomorrow, enter a new short position on close below 1237.20 but not lower than 1231.20...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

The gold rally is now approaching over bought territory, although all the lines are still pointing higher... we'll just stay long until we get a sell...

unnamed (3)
unnamed (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1227.65 (already reached)

minor - - 1237.18 (already reached)

minor - - 1242.21 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1244.43 and must close below that price on Tuesday, November 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1257.21 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... Notice the same deadline date...

MAJOR - - 1263.99 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... Notice the same deadline date...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1342.21

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, October 15th

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is short the December SP from 1946.00 as of Thursday, October 9th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1877.40...

No buy signal confirmation today... maybe tomorrow, and maybe not...

For Wednesday, a close above 1881.80 would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... if the market closes tomorrow above 1881.80 but not higher than 1887.80, then enter a new long position on the close...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator appears to be trying to hold here... we'll see tomorrow...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

Well, good grief!!! We have what actually looks like a buy spike in extremely deep oversold territory... a buy signal confirmation tomorrow would make this spike look even better...

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unnamed (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

minor - - 1967.40 (already reached)

minor - - 1965.95 (already reached)

minor - - 1964.82 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1956.71 and must close above that price on Monday, October 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal... (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1945.91 and must close above that price on Tuesday, October 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal... (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1944.06 and must close above that price on Tuesday, October 28th to confirm a new main model buy signal... (already reached)

minor - - 1915.68 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1891.69 and must close above that price on Thursday, November 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal... (already reached)

minor - - 1881.80 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1828.33 and must close above that price on Tuesday, November 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1795.03

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now long the December gold from 1194.50 as of Monday, October 6th...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1232.70...

We're now in the vicinity of several VPs, so expect to see some possible selling in this area after stalling today...

For Wednesday, a close below 1227.70 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

Hoban Rule traders, enter a sell stop to go flat at 1225.70... on a close below 1227.70 enter a new short position but now lower than 1221.70... if you're stopped out of the long position and the market closes above 1227.70, then reenter a long position on a close above 1227.70 but not higher than 1233.70...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

While all lines are still pointing higher, the only concern I have here is that the blue and purple lines are already moving into the over bought zone... after only a modest rally for this market, the LT graph is again looking a bit toppy... this market needs to prove itself with another solid move higher soon or selling may again begin to hammer this market...

unnamed (3)
unnamed (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1227.65 (already reached)

minor - - 1237.18 (already reached)

minor - - 1242.21

MAJOR - - 1244.43 and must close below that price on Tuesday, November 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1257.21 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... Notice the same deadline date...

MAJOR - - 1263.99 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... Notice the same deadline date...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1342.21

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, October 14th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."
 
- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.
 
The December SP Futures
 
A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
 
 
The main model is short the December SP from 1946.00 as of Thursday, October 9th...
The last trade as of this writing is at 1865.40...  
 
This market bounced sharply off the group of minor and major VPs...  the rally was impressive rallying more than the typical 10 to 12 points off the VP point...  it appeared as if this market was ready to attempt a legitimate rally from there...  therefore, a morning update was sent out...  but, within the final 25 minutes of trading the market decided not to confirm the potential buy signal...  this means stay short...
 
For Tuesday, a close above 1881.80 would confirm a new main model buy signal...    
For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market...  if the market closes tomorrow above 1881.80 but not higher than 1887.80, then enter a new long position on the close...
The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals...  this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition...  please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...
 
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator  (the red line)
You can see on this NT chart that the green price line has just broken the 2 1/2 year underlying support line as of today...  bear trap???  confirmation that the bull market is over???  Who knows, and I'm not even going to guess...  I'm just going to stay short and follow the signals as they emerge and let the bottom pickers attempt to guess where the real bottom may be...  good luck to them, I'll let the main model signal tell me...
unnamed
The LT (Long Term) indicator
Yes, I already did re-size these LT graphs, but if the selling continues, then I'll have to re-re-size this graph...  hmmm...  this graph goes back to June of 2012, that's just about 2 1/2 years, this market has not been this oversold since...
unnamed (1)
unnamed (2)
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
The following are the current downside VPs for the DECEMBER SP...  the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point...   please note, I include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
 
minor - - 1967.40  (already reached)
 
minor - - 1965.95  (already reached)
 
minor - - 1964.82  (already reached)
 
MAJOR - - 1956.71 and must close above that price on Monday, October 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...  (already reached)
MAJOR - - 1945.91 and must close above that price on Tuesday, October 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...  (already reached)
 
MAJOR - - 1944.06 and must close above that price on Tuesday, October 28th to confirm a new main model buy signal...  (already reached)
 
minor - - 1915.68 (already reached)
 
MAJOR - - 1891.69 and must close above that price on Thursday, November 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...  (already reached)
minor - - 1881.80  (already reached)
 
 
MAJOR - - 1828.33 and must close above that price on Tuesday, November 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal... 
 
 
TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1795.03   today's floor price held the market most of the day, but then the selling resumed...     
 
 
For now, the main model remains short the SP...
 
 
 
The December Gold futures
The main model is now long the December gold from 1194.50 as of Monday, October 6th...
For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1234.20...
Today, we had a second main model buy signal confirmation with a close above 1229.90...  
 
We're also now approaching a vicinity of VPs, so expect to see some possible selling in this area...
For Tuesday, a close below 1203.00 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...   
 
For Hoban Rule traders, you are now long this market from about 1234.20...  for tomorrow, place an exit stop to go flat at 1201.00...  enter a new short position on the close if the market closes below 1203.00 but not lower than 1197.00...  if you're stopped out of your long position and the market closes above 1203.00, then reenter the long position on the close but not higher than 1209.00...  
 
The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals...  this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition...  please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...
 
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
Hard to believe, but all systems for this market are still on a go, all lines are pointing higher and it looks like it may continue...  the only headwind now are the VP regions which are nearby...  either way, stay long this market, it could grow some legs and run a good distance...  this can be said for the gold market, but not for the gold miners market, the gold miners market still has not moved higher, not yet anyway...
unnamed (3)
unnamed (4)
The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...
minor - - 1227.65  (already reached)
minor - - 1237.18  (already reached)
minor - - 1242.21
MAJOR - - 1244.43 and must close below that price on Tuesday, November 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 1257.21 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal...  Notice the same deadline date...
MAJOR - - 1263.99 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal...  Notice the same deadline date...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1342.21
 
For now, the main model remains long gold...
 
 
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...  also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 

The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...   
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
THE HOBAN RULE
 
The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals...  using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...  this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...
 
For gold, each point is one dollar...
 
To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:
 
1)  The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and
 
2)  The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...
 
Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information...   if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade...  or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF...  or you can simply take the trade the following morning...
 
However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...
 
In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:
 
1)  Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...
 
To exit the trade:
 
1)  Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price...  if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...
 
2)  If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...
 
3)  If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...
 
4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price...  but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...
 
Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close...  and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...
 
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this email is not intended to constitute financial advice, and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. This email alert is strictly informational and educational and is not to be construed as any kind of financial advice, investment advice, or legal advice. By accepting and/or using any information contained within this email clearly illustrates that you fully understand and agree to the above terms. Copyright Paul Moskowitz, 2014.
 

For Monday, October 13th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."

- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is short the December SP from 1946.00 as of Thursday, October 9th...

For the December SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1893.40... more futures selling after hours, this has not been a good day for those who are long or tried to find a bottom... just stay short and don't think too much, it will only get you into trouble...

For Monday, a close above 1945.90 would confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, still the same price, this market now needs room to wiggle without triggering a false buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market... if the market closes Monday above 1945.90 but not higher than 1951.90, then enter a new long position on the close...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Now in the middle of no man's land, not over bought and not over sold...

unnamed

The LT (Long Term) indicator

There's not much room left for the blue line to go much lower, so I guess this is the bottom... LOL!!! OR, I could simply re-size the graph to fit, which is probably a better idea... LOL!!!

Although it looks like a bottom area, this market could just keep going south, so just stay short and enjoy the ride... it's about time we had a sell signal that ran for more than two days without turning higher again...

unnamed (1)
unnamed (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...

minor - - 1967.40 (already reached)

minor - - 1964.82 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1956.71 and must close above that price on Monday, October 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal... (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1945.91 and must close above that price on Tuesday, October 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal... (already reached)

minor - - 1915.68

minor - - 1881.80

MAJOR - - 1891.69 and must close above that price on Thursday, November 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1828.33 and must close above that price on Tuesday, November 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1896.14 this is for Monday only, not for today...

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now long the December gold from 1194.50 as of Monday, October 6th...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1223.30...

For Monday, a close above 1229.90 would confirm a second main model buy signal...

For Monday, a close below 1203.00 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for Monday, enter a new long position if this market closes above 1229.90 but not higher than 123.90... enter a new short position if this market closes below 1203.00 but not lower than 1197.00...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Today's LT graph shows a suspicious little bend at the top of the blue and purple lines... we don't want to see this develop any further on Monday or we may have to put this market back into intensive care again... the good news is that the red line is still moving higher...

unnamed (3)
unnamed (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1227.65 (already reached)

minor - - 1237.18

minor - - 1242.21

MAJOR - - 1244.43 and must close below that price on Tuesday, November 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1257.21 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... Notice the same deadline date...

MAJOR - - 1263.99 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... Notice the same deadline date...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1229.90 we could see this market hit this price tomorrow and then back away, but a close Monday above this price would be a second main model buy signal...

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, October 10th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."
 
- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.
 
The December SP Futures
 
A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
 
 
The main model is now short the December SP from 1946.00 as of Thursday, October 9th...
For the December SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1917.10...  these past few days has been one heck of a ride, but at least the main model is catching it...
 
For Friday, a close above 1945.90 would confirm a new main model buy signal...    
 
Yes, this confirmation price should look familiar to you by now...  this is a major VP and this market is moving on both sides of this critical price...
 
For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat this market...  if the market closes tomorrow above 1945.90 but not higher than 1951.90, then enter a new long position on the close...
The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals...  this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition...  please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...
 
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator  (the red line)
The NT indicator has given a sell spike today in relatively overbought territory...
unnamed
The LT (Long Term) indicator
This LT graph actually still looks like the market is trying to form a bottom right here, this is hard to believe after the failed rally of yesterday and the intensity of the collapse selling today...   today was either the beginning of a new leg lower or the final capitulation of the bulls before this market turns higher once again...  the only reason I even suggest this is because this LT graph looks better than the actual market itself...  I realize I said the same thing about the gold LT graph several days before that market finally staged a healthy rally... so, who knows...  we'll know more tomorrow...
unnamed (1)
unnamed (2)
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
The following are the current downside VPs for the DECEMBER SP...  the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point...   please note, I include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
 
minor - - 1967.40  (already reached)
 
minor - - 1964.82  (already reached)
 
MAJOR - - 1956.71 and must close above that price on Monday, October 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...  (already reached)
MAJOR - - 1945.91 and must close above that price on Tuesday, October 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...  (already reached)
minor - - 1881.80
 
MAJOR - - 1828.33 and must close above that price on Tuesday, November 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal... 
 
 
TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1895.91
 
 
For now, the main model remains short the SP...
 
 
 
The December Gold futures
The main model is now long the December gold from 1194.50 as of Monday, October 6th...
For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1224.90...
For Friday, a close above 1232.10 would confirm a second main model buy signal...
For Friday, a close below 1224.60 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...   
 
For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market...  for Friday, enter a new long position if this market closes above 1232.10 but not higher than 1238.10...  enter a new short position if this market closes below 1224.60 but not lower than 1218.60...  
 
The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals...  this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition...  please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...
 
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
All lines are moving higher, although now moving into over bought territory...  expect to see a possible pull back from here, we had a rejected buy signal today, that's typical at least near term negative...
unnamed (3)
unnamed (4)
The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...
minor - - 1227.65  (already reached)
minor - - 1237.18
minor - - 1242.21
MAJOR - - 1244.43 and must close below that price on Tuesday, November 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 1257.21 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal...  Notice the same deadline date...
MAJOR - - 1263.99 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal...  Notice the same deadline date...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1225.13  we could see this market hit this price tomorrow and then back away, but a close tomorrow above this price would be a second main model buy signal...
 
For now, the main model remains long gold...
 
 
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...  also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 

The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...   
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
THE HOBAN RULE
 
The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals...  using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...  this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...
 
For gold, each point is one dollar...
 
To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:
 
1)  The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and
 
2)  The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...
 
Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information...   if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade...  or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF...  or you can simply take the trade the following morning...
 
However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...
 
In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:
 
1)  Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...
 
To exit the trade:
 
1)  Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price...  if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...
 
2)  If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...
 
3)  If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...
 
4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price...  but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...
 
Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close...  and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...
 
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

For Thursday, October 9th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."

- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now long the December SP from 1933.00 as of Wednesday, October 8th...

For the December SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1962.70... today was a good day to buy at the bottom... LOL!!!

For Thursday, a close above 1971.60 would confirm a second main model buy signal...

For Thursday, a close below 1917.10 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat... the market ran too far to enter a new long position today... however, we will have a second main model buy signal confirmation tomorrow with a close above 1971.60... therefore, with a close tomorrow above 1971.60, enter a new long position, but not any higher than 1977.60...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT continues higher... needless to say, when the markets were lower in the morning, the NT indicator was already moving into oversold territory, the selling was very heavy... but, as the day progressed, this indicator turned upwards once again...

unnamed

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Holy Mackerel, Batman!!! The red line is now exactly flat... the blue and purple lines are both spiking above the red line, just look at all the previous similar bottom spikes, they all occur at significant market bottoms... if the previous buy confirmation looked like a significant bottom, then this one looks even more so... apparently, this market had to revisit the lows... of course, we went along for the slide because we never know if that downward move would be a quickie or develop into something more extended... but now, if this doesn't look like a bottoming action, then I don't if anything would...

unnamed (1)
unnamed (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point...

minor - - 1984.21

minor - - 1998.66

MAJOR - - 2008.27 and must close below that price on Monday, November 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2021.16

MAJOR - - 2028.96 and must close below that price on Friday, November 21st to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2061.96 and must close below that price on Thursday, December 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1971.65 we could see this market hit this price and sell off... but, a close above this price tomorrow would be a second main model buy signal...

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now long the December gold from 1194.50 as of Monday, October 6th...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1223.40...

A mid afternoon gold update was sent out just in case, but the FED announcement saved the day for this market as well as for the stock market...

For Thursday, a close above 1225.10 would confirm a second main model buy signal...

For Thursday, a close below 1203.00 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for Thursday, enter a new long position if this market closes above 1225.10 but not higher than 1231.10... enter a new short position if this market closes below 1203.00 but not lower than 1197.00...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

All systems go for the LT graph... at least now, we know why this LT graph look so encouraging for the past week even though the market itself looked suspect... this graph looks like a completed bottoming pattern...

unnamed (3)
unnamed (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1227.65

minor - - 1237.18

minor - - 1242.21

MAJOR - - 1244.43 and must close below that price on Tuesday, November 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1257.21 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... Notice the same deadline date...

MAJOR - - 1263.99 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... Notice the same deadline date...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1225.13 we could see this market hit this price tomorrow and then back away, but a close tomorrow above this price would be a second main model buy signal...

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, October 8th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."

- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now short the December SP from 1956.80 as of Monday, October 6th...

For the December SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1925.60... today was a good day to be short...

Mid morning, the market began to flirt with the 1945.90 major VP... a close above that price today would have clearly been a solid main model buy signal, but it didn't materialize...

For Wednesday, a close above 1945.90 would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For tomorrow, there's a floor price of 1932.97... this is above where it will likely open this evening...

For tomorrow, and only for aggressive traders, a close above 1933.00 tomorrow would be a good place to attempt a long position... this would not be a main model buy signal, but a close above 1933.00 tomorrow may likely trigger a solid recovery rally for the next day or so... depending on the market action overnight, I may also send out an SP update for a main model buy signal confirmation with a close above 1933.00... or even later this evening...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are currently flat after getting stopped out at 1947.90... a very excellent gain for doing nothing but following two simple rules and not having to think or worry about anything... for tomorrow, enter a long position on the close if the market closes above 1945.90 but not above 1951.90... otherwise, remain flat for now...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator continues higher and is near over bought territory... even with today's decline, there is buying coming into this market for now...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graphs continue pointing lower and is now into the oversold zone... in fact, this market is now more oversold than it was at the previous low at 1892.90 back in early August of this year...

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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point...

minor - - 1967.40 (already reached)

minor - - 1964.82 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1956.71 and must close above that price on Monday, October 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal... (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1945.91 and must close above that price on Tuesday, October 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal... (already reached)

minor - - 1881.80

MAJOR - - 1828.33 and must close above that price on Tuesday, November 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1932.97

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now long the December gold from 1194.50 as of Monday, October 6th...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1209.90...

For Wednesday, a close below 1184.10 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for Wednesday, place a buy limit order to go long this market at 1200.50... place a sell stop to go flat at 1182.10 and also entered a new short position if gold closes below 1184.10 but not below 1178.10... if stopped out of your long position and the market closes above 1184.10, then reenter the long position on the close if above 1184.10 but not above 1190.10...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

The LT graph continues to look constructive despite the suspicious looking chart itself...

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The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1227.65

minor - - 1237.18

minor - - 1242.21

MAJOR - - 1244.43 and must close below that price on Tuesday, November 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1257.21 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... Notice the same deadline date...

MAJOR - - 1263.99 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... Notice the same deadline date...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1312.62

For now, the main model remains long gold...

The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

Well, believe it or not, there are NO downside VP prices visible for this market anywhere... yes, this is rare... this can only suggest that this market could suddenly turn back up very quickly or it could begin a serious and very deep decline with absolutely no visible bottom in sight...

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, October 7th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."

- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now short the December SP from 1956.80 as of Monday, October 6th...

For the December SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1956.00... today, the market closed below the key major VP of 1956.71, this confirms a new main model sell signal...

For Tuesday, a close above 1982.50 would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now short this market at about 1956.00... for Tuesday, enter a buy stop order to go flat at 1984.50 stop... if the market closes above 1982.50 but not higher than 1988.50, then go long on the close... if you're stopped out of the short position and then the market sells down and closes below 1982.50, then reinstate the short position on the close provided the market does not close lower than 1976.50...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT buy spike continues higher... this means more buying is entering this market even though the market closed lower across the board...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graphs are giving modest sell spikes today... we'll need a follow through tomorrow to feel better...

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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point...

minor - - 1967.40 (already reached)

minor - - 1964.82 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1956.71 and must close above that price on Monday, October 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal... (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1945.91 and must close above that price on Tuesday, October 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal... (already reached)

minor - - 1881.80

MAJOR - - 1828.33 and must close above that price on Tuesday, November 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1922.32

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now long the December gold from 1194.50 as of Monday, October 6th...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1208.00...

Oddly enough, there was no downside VPs for this market as of yesterday's close... however, as a result of the overnight selling, a new downside major VP appeared at 1194.50... after the market traded down below that price overnight, a close above that price today would confirm a main model buy signal...

For Tuesday, a close below 1183.00 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for Tuesday, place a buy limit order to go long this market at 1200.50... place a sell stop to go flat at 1181.00 and also entered a new short position if gold closes below 1183.00 but not below 1177.00... if stopped out of your long position and the market closes above 1183.00, then reenter the long position on the close if above 1183.00 but not above 1189.00...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Look at this!!! The blue line which was in a tailspin only yesterday has now leaped above the red line in what looks like a solid buy spike... the purple line actually made a new high today... can we get lucky???

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The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1227.65

minor - - 1237.18

minor - - 1242.21

MAJOR - - 1244.43 and must close below that price on Tuesday, November 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1257.21 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... Notice the same deadline date...

MAJOR - - 1263.99 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... Notice the same deadline date...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1312.62

For now, the main model remains long gold...

The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

Well, believe it or not, there are NO downside VP prices visible for this market anywhere... yes, this is rare... this can only suggest that this market could suddenly turn back up very quickly or it could begin a serious and very deep decline with absolutely no visible bottom in sight...

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Monday, October 6th

"The key to navigating bubbles successfully is to panic before everyone else does..."

- - - John P. Hussmann, Ph.D.

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now long the December SP from 1945.90 as of Friday, October 3rd...

For the December SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1960.30... today, the market closed well above both of the major VPs after trading down below it... the subsequent rally of 46 SP points from yesterday's low has to be considered impressive...

For Monday, a close below 1918.20 would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for Monday, enter a buy limit order to go long at 1951.90 or better... place a buy sell to go flat at 1916.20 and then enter a new long position if the market closes above 1918.20 but not higher than 1924.20... if the market closes below 1918.20, then reenter the short position provided the market does not close below 1912.20...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Look at the clearly pronounced NT buy spike... and right at the bottom support line... this suggests that this market may well have already seen the bottom for a while... notice how this broad buy spike occurs at each previous major bottom turning point for this market over the past 2 1/2 years... in fact, there have only been two previous occasions such as this, so if the stars are properly aligned and in our favor, then we could see a significant rally from here while nearly everyone else is expecting a market decline...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph says it all, there's not much more that can be said here... these sharp buy spike have only occurred at previous major market bottoms, take a look... these well defined buy spikes are a thing of beauty... let's hope they don't turn into ugly witches over the weekend...

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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point...

minor - - 1984.21

minor - - 1998.66

MAJOR - - 2008.27 and must close below that price on Monday, November 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2021.16

MAJOR - - 2028.96 and must close below that price on Friday, November 21st to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2061.96 and must close below that price on Thursday, December 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2117.32

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now short the December gold from 1206.50 as of Friday, October 3rd...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1191.00...

For Monday, a close above 1225.40 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for Monday, place a sell limit order to short this market at 1200.40... place a buy stop to go flat at 1227.40 and also entered a new long position if gold closes above 1225.40 but not above 1231.40... if stopped out of your short position and the market closes below 1225.40, then reenter the short position on the close if below 1225.40 but not below 1219.40...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Egads!!! The LT graph is now beginning to look more like the gold chart itself, e.g., sick... the blue line is now below the red line which is now pointing lower once again, and the purple line, while still above the red line at the moment, has begun what appears to be a free fall... stay short this market...

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The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

Well, believe it or not, there are NO downside VP prices visible for this market anywhere... yes, this is rare... this can only suggest that this market could suddenly turn back up very quickly or it could begin a serious and very deep decline with absolutely no visible bottom in sight...

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...