For Wednesday, October 1st

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

When the afternoon SP update was sent out, the market was trading at 1968.60, but traded as high at 1970.60 as late as 20 minutes afterwards before selling down again...

The main model is now short the December SP from 1968.50 as of Tuesday, September 30th...

For the December SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1964.50... a third visit to the 1956.71 major VP appears to be the order of the day... if so, then it may well be down for the count, especially with a close below that all important price...

For Wednesday, a close above 1990.60 in the December SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal... the main model now wants to give this market some more trading space and a wider berth to move around... we may be looking at a much broader and more significant top at this point...

The Hoban Rule is now short long at 1964.50... for Hoban Rule traders for Wednesday, place a buy stop order to go flat at 1992.60... enter a long position if the market closes above 1990.60 but not above than 1996.60... if stopped out and the market closes below 1990.60, then reenter the short position provided the market does not close below 1984.60...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

This NT indicator is getting into oversold territory... however, no buy spike in sight...

unnamed

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph is beginning to look like melting wax... we have a failed buy spike...

unnamed (1)
unnamed (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point...

minor - - 1967.40 (already reached)

minor - - 1964.82 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1956.71 and must close above that price on Monday, October 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1945.91 and must close above that price on Tuesday, October 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1881.80

MAJOR - - 1828.33 and must close above that price on Tuesday, November 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1812.14

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

The December Gold futures

Due to a very late non-confirming close yesterday for gold, the main model remains long gold... hmmm, bummer, but we also had a rejected sell signal today, so we may actually see a bounce tomorrow for this market... some of you may have already gone short as of yesterday yesterday are are still short...

The main model is now long the December gold from 1221.00 as of Thursday, September 25th...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1208.90...

For Wednesday, a close below 1204.80 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The Hoban Rule is long gold from 1221.20... for Hoban Rule traders for Wednesday, place a sell stop at 1202.80 to go flat, and also entered a new short position if gold closes below 1204.80 but not below than 1198.80... if stopped out and the market closes above 1204.800, then reenter the long position on the close if above 1204.80 but not above 1210.80...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Now we see sell spikes in both the blue and purple lines... the blue is again below the red line and the purple line actually is beginning to look toppy...

unnamed (3)
unnamed (4)

The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1206.81

MAJOR - - 1194.53 and must close above that price on Tuesday, October 14th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1138.32

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, September 30th

The December SP Futures
 
A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
 
 
Okay, I was chewing my nails most of the morning, I was even stopped out only to reenter the long position again...  I pretty much spent the morning hiding under my desk hoping the market wouldn't find me... 
 
And then...  can you believe it???  After a resounding rally on Friday off that newly developed major VP at 1957, the market has to scare the wits out of everyone with yet another retest of that 1957 level...  it actually broke down below it in the early going by exactly one point...  any time we see a revisit to a major VP, it's generally not good news...  but still, the rally on Friday was more than just the typical 10 to 12 points...  and then, again, today, another rally off that same level...  tomorrow, we simply do not want to see that level tested for a third time...
The main model is now long the December SP from 1974.00 as of Friday, September 26th...
For the December SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1969.50...  
 
For Tuesday, a close below 1956.00 in the December SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...    
 
The Hoban Rule is long at 1975.60...   for Hoban Rule traders for Tuesday, place a sell stop order to go flat at 1954.00...  enter a short position if the market closes below 1956.00 but not lower than 1950.00...   if stopped out and the market closes above 1956.00, then reenter the long position provided the market does not close above 1962.00    
 
The Hoban Rule is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition...  please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...
 
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator  (the red line)
The NT indicator no longer has a buy spike, but it now is in deep oversold territory...  at the lowest price of the day today, the NT indicator was down near the most recent lowest low just to the right of the center of this chart...  that's when the market turned higher...
Inline image 1

The LT (Long Term) indicator
No buy spikes seen today, but now a new low for any of the lines either...  so far, this market looks like a standard shake out, considering the decent rally from the major 1957 VP...  twice!!!.
Inline image 2

Inline image 3

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
The following are the current side VPs for the DECEMBER SP...  the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... 
 
minor - - 2019.55
MAJOR - - 2042.73 and must close below that price on Tuesday, November 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal... 
 
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2131.72
 
For now, the main model remains long the SP...
 
 
 
 
The December Gold futures
The main model is now short the December gold from 1217.90 as of Monday, September 29th...
Again, this gold market cannot hold a rally for longer than one day...  this is just not a healthy market...
For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1216.50...
For Tuesday, a close above 1236.30 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...    
 
The Hoban Rule is short gold from 1216.50...  for Hoban Rule traders for Tuesday, place a buy stop at 1238.30 to cover the short position and go flat, and also entered a new long position if gold closes above 1236.30 but not above than 1242.30...  if stopped out and the market closes below 1236.30, then reenter the short position on the close if below 1236.30 but not below  than 1230.30...
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
This LT graph still looks better than the market itself, but the main model is not impressed with the gold market at the moment...  the blue line is butting up against the red line which is still moving lower...  the purple line, while still well above the red line, no appears to be topping out some...
Inline image 4

Inline image 5

The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...
minor - - 1206.81
MAJOR - - 1194.53 and must close above that price on Tuesday, October 14th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1138.32
 
For now, the main model remains short gold...
 
 
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...  also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 

The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...   
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
THE HOBAN RULE
 
The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals...  using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...  this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...
 
For gold, each point is one dollar...
 
To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:
 
1)  The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and
 
2)  The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...
 
Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information...   if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade...  or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF...  or you can simply take the trade the following morning...
 
However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...
 
In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:
 
1)  Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...
 
To exit the trade:
 
1)  Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price...  if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...
 
2)  If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...
 
3)  If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...
 
4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price...  but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...
 
Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close...  and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...
 
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...  also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 

The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...   
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
THE HOBAN RULE
 
The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals...  using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...  this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...
 
For gold, each point is one dollar...
 
To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:
 
1)  The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and
 
2)  The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...
 
Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information...   if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade...  or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF...  or you can simply take the trade the following morning...
 
However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...
 
In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:
 
1)  Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...
 
To exit the trade:
 
1)  Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price...  if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...
 
2)  If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...
 
3)  If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...
 
4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price...  but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...
 
Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close...  and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...
 
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

For Monday, September 29th

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now long the December SP from 1974.00 as of Friday, September 26th...

Will someone kindly pass me the Dramamine??? Thank you...

While constantly checking the main model every moment throughout the day each day, mid day today it generated a major VP at 1956.71, and at that time the market had already made a low for the day at exactly 1957.00 and had already rallied more than 12 points... a mid afternoon update was then quickly written and by the time it was being sent out, the market was already more than 17 point above that major VP... this is not bearish... despite the two days of choppiness, this is a good buy signal confirmation... true, this market has been wild in recent days, but it will not leave us behind after this two day shake out...

For the December SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1975.60...

For Monday, a close below 1957.00 in the December SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The Hoban Rule is now long at 1975.60... for Hoban Rule traders for Monday, place a sell stop order to go flat at 1955.00... enter a short position if the market closes below 1957.00 but not lower than 1951.00... if stopped out and the market closes above 1957.00, then reenter the long position provided the market does not close above 1963.00

The Hoban Rule is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator gives us a buy spike today while in well oversold territory, this is good news... possibly, the past few days were nothing more than a heavy shake out... we'll see on Monday...

unnamed

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Solid buy spikes while in the oversold zone, and you can actually imagine a support line under the three most recent buy spikes in both of the LT graphs beginning with the deepest spike earlier this year, that was the February low... after two or three days of shaking everyone up and down, maybe we'll see a more orderly move from here... and if you take a closer look at the LT graphs, you will notice that each of the most recent lowest buy spike occurred just in advance of a legitimate major low (see the green price line)...

unnamed (1)
unnamed (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current side VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point...

minor - - 2019.55

MAJOR - - 2042.73 and must close below that price on Tuesday, November 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2131.72

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now long the December gold from 1221.00 as of Thursday, September 25th...

Although the gold market was under considerable downside pressure all day, it seemed to find new strength and close above the revised sell confirmation price sent out mid day today...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1218.40...

For Monday , a close below 1208.90 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The Hoban Rule is long gold from 1221.20... for Hoban Rule traders for Friday, place a sell stop at 1207.90 to go flat, and also entered a new short position if gold closes below 1208.90 but not below than 1202.90... if stopped out and the market closes above 1208.90, then reenter the long position on the close if above 1208.90 but not higher than 1214.90...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Frankly, the LT graph looks better than the market itself... go figure... today, the blue line is just barely remaining above the red line... meanwhile, the purple line has been above the red line for more than a week... who know, if this market won't go down, then maybe we really will see a rally... okay, I want to see that on Monday... the purple line doesn't spend much time above the red line even when the market is in a rally... so, something is making the purple line remain above the red line while the market itself looks so suspect... could something be ready to move this market??? If so, let's hope it's higher while we're still long...

unnamed (3)
unnamed (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1304.82

MAJOR - - 1344.71 and must close below that price on Tuesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1438.21

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, September 26th

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now short the December SP from 1978.80 as of Thursday, September 25th...

The market broke below that all important 1984.30 level but the main model needed to see a close below 1978.80 to confirm a down trend...

For the December SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1960.40...

The biggest problem I find with most traders and investors is that many have difficulty letting go of a trade that has gone sour quickly... and to aggravate things further, they hesitate and begin to second guess the next reverse signal... I say this with all tenderness and respect, the best way to follow a non human market timing model is to take the signals as they come without hesitation and without second guessing... hesitation and second guessing are caused by human emotions that will more than likely only interfere with a successful trading performance... of course, no one likes a loss, but the loss incurred from the quickly closed out long position this morning was more than recouped on the short side by not hesitating and by not second guessing... take each signal as they appear, this is what I do, and I take the bumps and I enjoy the gains...

For Friday, a close above 2012.80 in the December SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal...

Two days ago, I mentioned that a close below 1971.10 would confirm a third sell signal... we broke below that price and closed below it today...

The Hoban Rule remains flat for now... for Hoban Rule traders for Friday, place a sell limit order to go short at 2006.80 or better... if filled, place a buy stop to close out the short position and go flat at 2014.80... reenter the short position if the market then closes below 2012.80 but not below 2006.80...

The Hoban Rule is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

NOTE:

When the Hoban Rule was introduced, it was explained that this rule misses more than half the trades, but also the risk of whipsaw when entering a signal trade is completely eliminated... although this is not part of the Hoban Rule, but if you want to take the trade, there is nothing that says you shouldn't... one possibility is to use the Hoban Rule, but if the market triggers a buy or sell signal, then simply place the buy or sell stop order to enter 1/3 the position at the 6 point far end of the Hoban Rule range... so, for example, if the main model is now short from 1978.80 and the lower limit of Hoban Rule entry is no lower than 1972.80, you could place a sell order to enter 1/3 of your full position at 1972.80 on an entry stop for 1/3 the position... this way, you'll be on board even if the market continues to run... and if the market backs up, then you could always add the balance at that time... this is just one suggestion, you could use any variety of entry and exit methods you prefer based on the main model signals themselves... the main model signals are already provided for you, you only need to take the signals within your level of comfort...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The buy spike is gone... in fact, the NT indicator now looks a bit over sold...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

No buy spikes here... everything is now pointing lower...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point...

minor - - 1964.82 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1945.91 and must close above that price on Tuesday, October 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1881.80

MAJOR - - 1828.33 and must close above that price on Tuesday, November 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1812.14

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now long the December gold from 1221.00 as of Thursday, September 25th...

Despite the strength in the U.S. Dollar, the gold market has now managed to put in a reasonable bottom and has confirmed a new main model buy signal...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1221.20...

For Friday, a close below 1207.50 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The Hoban Rule is long gold from 1221.20... for Hoban Rule traders for Friday, place a sell stop at 1205.50 to go flat, and also entered a new short position if gold closes below 1207.50 but not below than 1201.50... if stopped out and the market closes above 1207.50, then reenter the long position on the close if above 1207.50 but not higher than 1213.50...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

The LT graph is really a surprise... not only has the blue line turned sharply higher today, but it's also now above the red line... this is definitely encouraging... and, I've been mentioning how the purple line has been creeping higher and remaining above the red line even though the market itself has been moving lower... well, today the purple line has actually taken out the previous swing high... all this while the gold market has been moving lower... I did ask the other day if this LT graph was trying to tell us something... apparently, it was...

image (3)
image (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1304.82

MAJOR - - 1344.71 and must close below that price on Tuesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1438.21

For now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Thursday, September 25th

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now long the December SP from 1984.30 as of Wednesday, September 24th...

1984.30 should be a familiar price, this was nearly where we confirmed the previous buy signal... there's nothing like a market that goes sideways and gives us the opportunity to buy and sell at the same prices again and again...

For the December SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1991.10...

For Thursday, a close below 1968.00 in the December SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...

Yesterday, I mentioned that a close below 1971.10 would confirm a third sell signal... we saw the market trade below it and then rally from there... a rejection of that sell confirmation price is what triggered today's rally...

The Hoban Rule remains flat for now... for Hoban Rule traders for Thursday, place a buy limit order to go long at 1990.30 or better... if filled, place a sell stop to close out the long position and go flat at 1966.00... reenter the long position if the market then closes above 1968.00 but not above 1974.00...

The Hoban Rule is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Looks to me like a clean NT buy spike today...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graphs are also giving us a clean buy spike today... all in concert and in confirmation of the main model buy signal confirmation... while everyone is fully expecting this market to decline, we could possibly see a surprise rally from here... wouldn't that be nice... LOL!!!

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point...

minor - - 1984,37 (already reached however it is still presented here since this minor VP is still active until Friday, September 26th) This was our signal confirmation signal price for today...

minor - - 1993.32

MAJOR - - 2003.401 and must close below that price on Friday, October 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached and still active)

minor - - 2018.22

MAJOR - - 2018.76 and must close below that price on Monday, September 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2037.305 and must close below that price on Monday, October 27th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE FOR TOMORROW - - 2013.59 Please Note: when the market trades above a ceiling price during the trading day but then closes below it, it is typically bearish...

MEGA MAJOR - - 2041.39 for the SP cash index and must close below this price in May (no specific date yet), 2018 to confirm a likely market top to the current bull market... however, since this price may be reached 4 years ahead of schedule, there seems a high likelihood that this market could very well extend above this mega major VP point... but, I did want you to be aware of it lurking overhead and waiting for the price to reach it...

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now short the December gold from 1227.50 as of Wednesday, September 17th...

The U.S. Dollar continues to rally... the currency has not been this high since June 2010... and according to the long term chart pattern, there appears to be no serious overhead resistance in sight... since the gold market is measured in the U.S. Dollar, one can readily expect to see the gold market under continued downside pressure for a while yet... also, there are rumors, and there are rumors of rumors with whispered words on the street, that all the European Central Banks are buying up the U.S. Dollar in an attempt to weaken their own currencies... this makes the U.S. Dollar the tallest midget in the room...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1217.60...

For Thursday, a close above 1227.80 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The Hoban Rule is short gold from 1224.80... for Hoban Rule traders for Thursday, place a buy stop at 1229.80 to go flat, and also entered a new long position if gold closes above 1227.80 but not higher than 1233.80... if stopped out and the market closes below 1227.80, then reenter the short position on the close if below 1227.80 but not lower than 1221.80...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Nothing yet encouraging about this LT graph... in fact, the purple line which had been moving higher and above the red line while gold was still inching lower is now a bit overbought... if this is accurate, then gold could now be looking at the possibility of yet another serious decline... but, we'll see... meanwhile, the main model remains short this market until indicated otherwise...

image (3)
image (4)

The following are the current down VPs for DECEMBER gold...

Yes, we actually now have a couple of VP points, and both were already now reached...

minor - - 1225.64 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1217.85 and must close above this price on Monday, September 29th to confirm a new main model buy signal... (already reached)

There are no other downside VP points at this time...

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, September 24th

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now short the December SP from 2002.20 as of Monday, September 22nd...

We had a second main model sell signal confirmation today, although this is largely academic since the main model is already short... however, this second sell signal confirmation further enhances the likelihood of a more significant top already in place for now...

The Hoban Rule remains flat for now... for Hoban Rule traders for Wednesday, place a sell limit order to go short at 1996.20 or better... if filled, place a buy stop to close out the short position and go flat at 2015.90... reenter the short position if the market closes below 2014.00 but not below 2008.00... also, entered a new long position if the SP closes above 2013.90 but not higher than 2019.90...

The Hoban Rule is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

For the December SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1972.60...

For Wednesday, a close above 1984.30 in the December SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal...

Also for Wednesday, a close below 1971.70 would confirm a THIRD consecutive main model sell signal... this would further reinforce the likelihood of a more significant top now in place...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT is still pointing lower...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph is also pointing lower for now...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point...

minor - - 1964.82

MAJOR - - 1945.91 and must close above that price on Tuesday, October 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1881.80

MAJOR - - 1828.33 and must close above that price on Tuesday, November 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1812.14

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now short the December gold from 1227.50 as of Wednesday, September 17th...

No buy signal was confirmed today...

The Hoban Rule is short gold from 1224.80... for Hoban Rule traders for Wednesday, place a buy stop at 1229.80 to go flat, and also entered a new long position if gold closes above 1227.80 but not higher than 1233.80... if stopped out and the market closes below 1227.80, then reenter the short position on the close if below 1227.80 but not lower than 1221.80...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1223.40...

For Wednesday, a close above 1227.80 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Buy spikes in the LT graphs, and the purple line is not only above the red line but moving higher with some conviction despite the recent decline in this market... I find this intriguing, yet, no confirmed buy signal... maybe tomorrow, or maybe gold will resume the selling tomorrow... either way, it appears that the gold market is at an inflection point... wait for the signal, and then take it if it occurs...

image (3)
image (4)

The following are the current down VPs for DECEMBER gold...

Yes, we actually now have a couple of VP points, and both were already now reached...

minor - - 1225.64 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1217.85 and must close above this price on Monday, September 29th to confirm a new main model buy signal... (already reached)

There are no other downside VP points at this time...

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, September 23rd

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now short the December SP from 2002.20 as of Monday, September 22nd...

After much consternation over Friday's very late settlement price which unconfirmed the sell signal, we finally had a confirmation today...

The Hoban Rule was stopped out mid afternoon on Friday at 2000.20 and now remains flat since the market closed more than 6 points below the sell confirmation price of 2002.20... for Hoban Rule traders for Tuesday, place a sell limit order to go short at 1996.20 or better... if filled, place a buy stop to close out the short position and go flat at 2016.30... reenter the short position if the market closes below 2014.30 but not below 2008.30... also, entered a new long position if the SP closes above 2014.30 but not higher than 2020.30...

Since the market did settle very late on Friday, some Hoban Rule traders did take a short position at 2001.00 thinking that the market close did confirm the sell signal on Friday... for those who are currently short, you can follow the same exit rule as described above...

The Hoban Rule is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

For the December SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1986.40.40...

Notice how the market sold down for more than the typical 10 to 12 points below the sell confirmation price... this suggests that any rally from here will more than likely be sold... but, we'll see...

For Tuesday, a close above 2014.30 in the December SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT sell spike continues and is still in the overbought zone for now...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Friday's modest sell spikes have now fully developed...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point...

minor - - 1964.82

MAJOR - - 1945.91 and must close above that price on Tuesday, October 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1881.80

MAJOR - - 1828.33 and must close above that price on Tuesday, November 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1812.14

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now short the December gold from 1227.50 as of Wednesday, September 17th...

The Hoban Rule is short gold from 1224.80... for Hoban Rule traders for Tuesday, place a buy stop at 1241.10 to go flat, and also entered a new long position if gold closes above 1239.10 but not higher than 1245.10... if stopped out and the market closes below 1239.10, then reenter the short position on the close if below 1240.90 but not lower than 1233.10...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1215.90...

For Tuesday, a close above 1239.10 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

All lines are still drifting lower, except that the purple line remains curiously above the red line and just going sideways despite the market's continuous decline... hmmm...

image (3)
image (4)

The following are the current down VPs for DECEMBER gold...

Yes, we actually now have a couple of VP points, and both were already now reached...

minor - - 1225.64 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1217.85 and must close above this price on Monday, September 29th to confirm a new main model buy signal... (already reached)

There are no other downside VP points at this time...

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Monday, September 22nd

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now short the December SP from 2002.20 as of Friday, September 19th...

NOTICE: It first looked as if the market closed above the confirmation price, but then apparently the market was hit at the final moment with a flood of MOC (Market On Close) orders to take the price down into confirmation territory... if for some reason, this is only an aberration and a false closing price, then I will make adjustments at that time, but until then we'll go with a sell signal confirmation as of today...

The Hoban Rule was stopped out mid afternoon at 2000.20 and then entered a short position on the close at 2001.40... for Hoban Rule traders for Monday, place a buy stop to close the short position to go flat at 2016.30... reenter the short position if the market closes below 2014.30 but not below 2008.30... also, entered a new long position if the SP closes above 2014.30 but not higher than 2020.30...

The Hoban Rule is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

For the December SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 2001.40...

For Monday, a close above 2014.30 in the December SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT continues lower today...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Modest sell spikes in the LT graphs for today...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... I want you to have the exact figure as derived by the formula...

minor - - 1964.82

MAJOR - - 1945.91 and must close above that price on Tuesday, October 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1812.14

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now short the December gold from 1227.50 as of Wednesday, September 17th...

The Hoban Rule is short gold from 1224.80... for Hoban Rule traders for Monday, place a buy stop at 1242.90 to go flat, and also entered a new long position if gold closes above 1240.90 but not higher than 1246.90... if stopped out and the market closes below 1240.90, then reenter the short position on the close if below 1240.90 but not lower than 1234.90...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1216.90...

Notice how the gold market had it's typical 10 dollar bounce off the major VP only to return to it once again, a return to the major VP after a 10 dollar bounce is not bullish...

For Monday, a close above 1240.90 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Everything is pointing lower although the purple line is still hovering above the red line... this is interesting... a possible early warning of another bounce coming, but it hasn't happened yet...

image (3)
image (4)

The following are the current down VPs for DECEMBER gold...

Yes, we actually now have a couple of VP points, and both were already now reached...

minor - - 1225.64 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1217.85 and must close above this price on Monday, September 29th to confirm a new main model buy signal... (already reached)

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, September 19th

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

This market keep chugging along...

The main model remains long the December SP from 1984.10 as of Thursday, September 10th...

The Hoban Rule remains long from 1993.60... for Hoban Rule traders for tomorrow, place a sell stop at 1971.70 to go flat, and also entered a new short position if the SP closes tomorrow below 1973.70 but not lower than 1967.70... if stopped out, then reenter the long position on the close if the market closes above 1973.70 but not higher than 1979.70...

The Hoban Rule is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

For the December SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 2005.90...

For Friday, a close below 2002.30 in the December SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Despite the fact that the market moved sharply higher today, we can see the NT indicator continues with a more dramatic sell spike... it appears that traders/investors are selling into this rally...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Contrary to the NT indicator, the LT graphs both show a continued buy spike... so, there is apparent selling into this rally, but the overall tide is still rising... also, the red line turned higher today... so, expect more possible near term weakness but broader strength for the next few days will probably buy those dips...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... I want you to have the exact figure as derived by the formula...

minor - - 1984,37 (already reached however it is still presented here since this minor VP is still active until Friday, September 26th)

minor - - 1992.309

MAJOR - - 2002.11 and must close below that price on Wednesday, October 1st to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)

minor - - 2004.65 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 2018.74 and must close below that price on Thursday, October 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2018.58 and must close below that price on Monday, September 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

NOTICE: BOTH MAJOR VP PRICES ARE WITHIN .16 POINTS OF EACH OTHER AND WITHIN TWO MARKET DAYS OF EACH OTHER, THIS WILL LIKELY PRESENT A PROBLEM FOR THE CURRENT RALLY...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2135.50

MEGA MAJOR - - 2041.39 for the SP cash index and must close below this price in May (no specific date yet), 2018 to confirm a likely market top to the current bull market... however, since this price may be reached 4 years ahead of schedule, there seems a high likelihood that this market could very well extend above this mega major VP point... but, I did want you to be aware of it lurking overhead and waiting for the price to reach it...

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now short the December gold from 1227.50 as of Wednesday, September 17th...

The Hoban Rule is short gold from 1224.80... for Hoban Rule traders for tomorrow, place a buy stop at 1244.20 to go flat, and also entered a new long position if gold closes tomorrow above 1242.20 but not higher than 1248.20... if stopped out and the market closes below 1242.20, then reenter the short position on the close if below 1242.20 but not lower than 1236.20...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1225.70...

For Friday, a close above 1242.20 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

While the red line is continuing lower, the blue line turned higher again today... and the purple line, curiously enough, is elevated and not only spiking higher but has been holding nicely ABOVE the red line for several days... is this LT graph telling us something??? Also, we now have a couple of VP points generated today and both were already reached today, the lower VP is a major VP at 1217.85 and this market already traded below it and then rallied nearly 10 points from there, so tomorrow should be interesting... so, in the midst of what looks like a collapsing market, could we see a possible sudden turn around??? Well, I've seen miracles happen before, so who knows... let's see what tomorrow brings for this most elusive market... as you scroll down, take a look at that purple line, it has a habit of turning higher ahead of the market... wait for the signal, but it does look encouraging for the moment...

image (3)
image (4)

The following are the current down VPs for DECEMBER gold...

Yes, we actually now have a couple of VP points, and both were already now reached...

minor - - 1225.64 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1217.85 and must close above this price on Monday, September 29th to confirm a new main model buy signal... (already reached)

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Thursday, September 18th

The December SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

Mid day today, the main model generated a new sell confirmation price at 1992.70, therefore a mid day update was sent out to everyone... the market closed at 1993.60, therefore the sell signal was rejected and the position remains long...

The main model remains long the December SP from 1984.10 as of Thursday, September 10th...

The Hoban Rule closed out the long position at about 1990 depending on when the email was received in your inbox... the long position was then reentered on the close at 1993.60... as explained earlier when this trading strategy was introduced, the Hoban Rule is a safer and cookbook recipe strategy for taking the main model signals without having to make personal decisions, so both the gains and losses are reduced... for Hoban Rule traders for tomorrow, place a sell stop at 1991.70 to go flat, and also entered a new short position if the SP closes on Thursday below 1993.70 but not lower than 1987.70...

The Hoban Rule is presented here only as an option, one can use any trading strategy that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing...

For the December SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1995.60...

For Thursday, a close below 1993.70 in the December SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

A clear sell spike in extremely over bought territory...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Yesterday's buy spike has slowed despite the market still moving higher today... there is a major VP at 2002.11 and was exceeded today before selling nearly 10 point lower... if this selling downward continues tomorrow, then the main model will be short...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the DECEMBER SP... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... I want you to have the exact figure as derived by the formula...

minor - - 1984,37 (already reached however it is still presented here since this minor VP is still active until Friday, September 26th)

minor - - 1992.309

MAJOR - - 2002.11 and must close below that price on Wednesday, October 1st to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)

minor - - 2004.65

MAJOR - - 2018.56 and must close below that price on Thursday, October 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2018.58 and must close below that price on Monday, September 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

NOTICE: BOTH MAJOR VP PRICES ARE WITHIN .02 POINTS OF EACH OTHER AND WITHIN TWO MARKET DAYS OF EACH OTHER, THIS WILL LIKELY PRESENT A PROBLEM FOR THE CURRENT RALLY...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2135.50

MEGA MAJOR - - 2041.39 for the SP cash index and must close below this price in May (no specific date yet), 2018 to confirm a likely market top to the current bull market... however, since this price may be reached 4 years ahead of schedule, there seems a high likelihood that this market could very well extend above this mega major VP point... but, I did want you to be aware of it lurking overhead and waiting for the price to reach it...

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now short the December gold from 1227.50 as of Wednesday, September 17th...

The Hoban Rule is short gold from 1224.80... for Hoban Rule traders for tomorrow, place a buy stop at 1253.00 to go flat, and also entered a new long position if gold closes on Thursday above 1251.00 but not higher than 1257.00...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1222.10...

For Thursday, a close above 1251.00 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Clearly, the gold market is unable to get out of its own way to hold a rally for longer than 15 minutes... all LT indicators are pointing lower and have been moving lower for months or longer... the previous downside VP at 1233.00 offered a rally, but that rally obviously failed to prove itself... the return below 1233.00 today could have been the main model sell confirmation priced based on this return alone, but the model apparently allow for a bit more breathing room... but still, this market cannot prove itself... therefore, the main model is now short gold once again...

image (3)
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The following are the current down VPs for DECEMBER gold...

What??? For now, the main model has NO downside VP points at all... this happens on a rare occasion but still cannot be used to forecast what this actually means...

minor - - none

MAJOR - - none

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...