For Friday, August 1st

The September SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

Since today is the end of the month, the monthly DOW LT graph is presented this evening below the gold briefing...

Throughout the day today, I've been asked by a number of subscribers: How do you control a loss when the market moves so much overnight?

My answer: I place an exit stop about a 1/2 point beyond the sell or buy confirmation price... in the case of last night, my stop was at 1961.00 to close the position and be flat... the sell confirmation price was at 1961.30... I did not reverse to the short side since the market could easily have rallied afterwards, but to manage risk, a protective stop is always wise just in case of an overnight move... there's never a hurry to take a position, you always have the next day to find a comfortable place to enter the trade... risk management is the single most important thing when it comes to money management...

We already know how the market reacts to the VP points tells us how strong or how weak the market is... with a rejected sell signal as we saw yesterday, it would be very typical to expect a rally today... but, since the market quickly revisited that lower level, much like revisiting a VP point, we see that the market is telling us that it's truly weak... in fact, so weak, that it traded down through the initial minor VP at 1940.10 and still continued trading lower... this kind of weakness must be taken seriously...

The main model is now short the September SP from 1961.30 as of Thursday, July 31st...

For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1924.90...

For Friday, a close above 1982.90 in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Look at the blue price line take a big drop today, but the NT indicator itself actually turned higher... a possible rally tomorrow??? Despite this buy spike, it's still in over bought territory, and considering today's weakness, I'm not concerned about this up turn...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

Yikes!!! The LT graph is moving down rapidly... it looks like it's getting oversold quickly, but with the force and momentum of this downward move today, it seems that this decline is likely to continue... take a look at the LT graph for the DOW below the gold LT briefing and compare it with this daily SP LT graph...

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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP... NOTE: There are no typos in this VP presentation...

Notice how the market today traded down through the initial minor VP without blinking... this is more than typical weakness and should be taken seriously...

minor - - 1940.10 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1921.50 and must close above that price on Thursday, August 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1786.00

MAJOR - - 1688.90 and must close above that price on Wednesday, October 8th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

Additional downside VPs will be added as they emerge...

Tomorrow's floor price - - 1789.10

For now, the main model remains short the September SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now short the December gold from 1303.30 as of Tuesday, July 29th...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1283.60...

For Friday, a close above 1314.60 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Well, I really don't want to be the one to spoil the party, but this gold LT graph and pattern is beginning to look more and more like a significant price top had already been made... just look at how the blue line peaks ahead of the red line and ahead of the green price line... the two previous peak patterns occurred at a major topping action for this market... and now, we can see a very similar peaking pattern again crossing down through the red line ahead of the price line itself...

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The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1254.80

MAJOR - - 1214.80 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 27th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1238.60

For now, the main model remains short gold...

The DOW monthly LT graph:

I will try to present the monthly closing DOW LT graph at the end of each month so you can see where this market is in the longer run... this LT graph goes back to early 1984, that's 30 years of LT data with the DOW just above 2000 in price... remember, LT means Long Term...

Okay, the first thing I see is that the red line has turned lower this month for the first time since July, 2009... also, the blue line has crossed below the red line at the same time... this could turn higher next month, but this graph shows that the longer term bias has turn lower for now... whenever the red line has turned lower, you can see a significant price decline to follow, e.g., several hundred DOW points... so, we'll see if this also holds true this time, as well...

The purple line always drops down through the red line early, but once that downward crossing is made, it never returns until after a significant price decline...

As my good friend Carl Swenlin always says, technical analysis is not a crystal ball, it's more like a windsock, so it doesn't predict anything, it just tells us which way the wind is blowing for now... and for now, this market appears vulnerable to a more meaningful decline... so, with the apparent weakness we've just witness last night and all day today, we may well see more selling soon...

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BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Thursday, July 31st

The September SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now long the September SP from 1964.00 as of Wednesday, July 30th...

For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1965.40...

For Thursday, a close below 1961.30 in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

No buy spike to support the main model buy signal confirmation... maybe tomorrow...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

Hmmm, nothing supportive here either of the new buy confirmation... maybe tomorrow...

image (1)
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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP...

minor - - 1980.30

minor - - 1982.30

Major - - 1995.30 and must close below that price on Wednesday, August 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

Major - - 1999.50 and must close below that price on Wednesday, August 6th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2023.30

MEGA MAJOR - - 2041.39 for the SP cash index and must close below this price in May (no specific date yet), 2018 to confirm a likely market top to the current bull market...

For now, the main model remains long the SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now short the December gold from 1303.30 as of Tuesday, July 29th...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1297.70...

For Thursday, a close above 1314.60 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Everything is still pointing lower...

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The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1254.80

MAJOR - - 1214.80 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 27th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1238.60

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, July 30th

The September SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now short the September SP from 1981.10 as of Friday, July 25th...

For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1963.60...

For Wednesday, a close above 1964.00 in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal...

NOTE: For Wednesday, a close below 1964.00 would confirm a SECOND main model sell signal... this market is already closing below this sell confirmation price today, so unless this market can stage a recovery rally tomorrow, we we see a second sell signal confirmation for this market...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

All that was needed for today was a closing NYSE daily TRIN reading more bullish than 1.32 for a buy spike, but that was not to be... we had a reading of 1.33 and, more than that, the market sold off even further...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

While the blue and purple lines held above the red line yesterday, they broke down below it today, and the red line is now beginning to accelerate its decline... you might notice when the blue line crosses downward through the red line each time after making a top peak, it crosses right near or at the top of the market...

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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP...

minor - - 1940.10

MAJOR - - 1921.50 and must close above that price on Thursday, August 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

Tomorrow's floor price - - 1789.10

For now, the main model remains short the September SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now short the December gold from 1303.30 as of Tuesday, July 29th...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1302.50...

For Wednesday, a close above 1314.60 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Both the blue and purple lines are zig zagging lower along with a declining red line... we can see that the blue line crossed below the red line right at the top of the rally several days ago... the purple line did the same several days in advance...

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The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1254.80

MAJOR - - 1214.80 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 27th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1238.60

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, July 29th

The September SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is Continue reading

For Monday, July 28th

The September SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

Today's special guest LT graph is for NUGT, seen below the gold briefing in this email...

The main model is now short the September SP from 1981.10 as of Friday, July 25th...

For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1971.10...

For Monday, a close above 1985.40 in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator has given us a sell spike today... this lends weight to the main model's confirmed sell signal for today...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

All lines are moving lower, sell spikes lend further weight to our newly confirmed sell signal for today... notice how the blue line has actually broken down below that rising support line... this means heavier selling had entered this market... the purple line is just sitting on that support line, but any further decline on Monday is likely to take both lines into southern territory...

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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP... additional downside VP points are likely to be generated on Monday...

minor - - 1940.10

MAJOR - - 1921.50 and must close above that price on Thursday, August 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

Tomorrow's floor price - - 1789.10

For now, the main model remains short the September SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now long the December gold from 1294.20 as of Friday, July 25th...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1310.20...

For Monday, a close below 1289.40 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

NOTICE: The sell signal for the SP and the buy signal for gold were generated by a reversal after trading beyond a VP point... as I've said so many times before, one should never minimize the importance of these VP points...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Clean buy spikes in both the blue and purple lines... a crossing north of the red line would be nice to see on Monday...

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The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1351.20

MAJOR - - 1374.10 and must close below that price on Thursday, August 21st to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1454.20

Additional VP points will be listed as they are generated by the main model...

As for now, the main model remains long gold...

The LT graph for NUGT:

What I find encouraging for the long side in this LT graph are the buy spikes today for both the blue and purple lines... also, if you look at the purple line, you can see a pattern resembling a break out of a bullish wedge formation and also what appears to be a successful re-test of that break out wedge exactly where both wedge lines intersect... also with today's buy signal confirmation of the gold market after bouncing off a major downside VP, there is good reason to suspect the lows for the entire gold complex may well be in place... further higher follow up on Monday would lend further reassurance that the lows are already in place for the gold complex...

image (5)
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BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, July 25th

The September SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now long the September SP from 1971.20 as of Tuesday, July 22nd...

For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1982.10...

For Friday, a close below 1981.10 in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal... the market rallied above a minor VP, if it now closes below that price, the main model would be short...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

We have a solid buy spike today... the only problem I see with this particular buy spike is that it's occurring well into over bought territory, this is not a comfortable place for a buy spike to occur...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Lo and behold!!! A buy spike in the NT chart, but a modest sell spike in the LT chart... okay, I say just follow the main model sell signal confirmation price for tomorrow, that always takes top priority over all other signals and indicators...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP...

minor - - 1980.30 (already reached)

minor - - 1981.10 (already reached)

Major - - 1995.30 and must close below that price on Wednesday, August 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

Major - - 1998.10 and must close below that price on Tuesday, August 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2023.30

Due to some confusion yesterday, I would like to clarify what this "monthly" VP actually means... the reference to a "monthly" VP has created some confusion, therefore the reference to the word "monthly" should just be ignored... simply that this is the highest major VP available for the SP cash index since the previous high made in October, 2007...

MAJOR - - 2041.39 and must close below this price in May (no specific date), 2018 to confirm a likely market top to the current bull market...

We can see that this market is well ahead of schedule, by nearly 4 years, so it remains to be seen what will happen if/when this market actually reaches this VP price so early ahead of schedule...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now short the December gold from 1309.70 as of Tuesday, July 22nd...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1294.30...

For Friday, a close above 1294.20 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... today, the gold market reached the initial downside major VP... a close above that VP price tomorrow should trigger a rally... if so, then, we watch to see if this market returns to the VP after an anticipated rally...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

At this point, everything is pointing lower... we'll see what tomorrow brings...

image (3)
image (4)

The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1307.20 (already reached)

minor - - 1305.60 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1294.20 and must close above that price on Friday, August 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal... (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1287.30 and must close above that price on Wednesday, July 30th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1254.80

MAJOR - - 1214.80 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 27th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1238.60

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Thursday, July 24th

The September SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

TODAY'S SPECIAL GUEST LT GRAPH IS THE MONTHLY LT GRAPH FOR THE DOW 30 INDUSTRIAL INDEX, SEEN BELOW TODAY'S GOLD BRIEFING...

The main model is now long the September SP from 1971.20 as of Tuesday, July 22nd...

For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1980.90...

For Thursday, a close below 1965.40 in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Even with a higher market close today, the NT indicator did not give us a buy spike... all we needed was a NYSE daily TRIN more bullish than 1.32 on the close, but it finished at 1.31 which is just barely more bullish... not impressive... this market needs to move higher tomorrow to keep the long position comfortably intact...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Today, we see the blue line cross above the red line, this is encouraging...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP...

A COMMENT HERE:

This market came very close to the new initial upside minor VP and then the rally stopped, well no surprise here... most of the time, we can see four or five minor and major VPs above this market on a newly confirmed buy signal, and at some distance from the market price itself... but, if you have noticed, in the past 6 weeks or so there has only been one minor and one major VP, and that VP price is not far from the market itself... this time, we have two of each, but you can see how close to the market they are... this suggests that this market is now having a more difficult time moving higher...

minor - - 1980.30

minor - - 1981.10

Major - - 1995.30 and must close below that price on Wednesday, August 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

Major - - 1998.10 and must close below that price on Tuesday, August 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2023.30

NEW!!! Since the previous market top in October, 2007, the main model has now generated ONLY ONE upside monthly major VP for this market... this is a long term 7 year monthly major VP, this could be a market top possibility...

THE ONLY MONTHLY MAJOR SP CASH MARKET VP SINCE THE LAST HIGH IN OCTOBER, 2007

MAJOR - - 2041.39 (NO DUE DATE AVAILABLE)

The December Gold futures

The main model is now short the December gold from 1309.70 as of Tuesday, July 22nd...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1307.20...

For Thursday, a close above 1330.50 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

All lines are moving lower... not a bullish picture at the moment, and if you look at the two previously spaced major tops (red line), we may be witnessing a possible longer term top here... the main model remains short this market for now...

image (3)
image (4)

The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1307.20 (already reached)

minor - - 1305.60 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1294.20 and must close above that price on Friday, August 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1287.30 and must close above that price on Wednesday, July 30th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1254.80

MAJOR - - 1214.80 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 27th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1238.60

The DOW 30 Industrial monthly LT graph:

This DOW 30 LT graph begins in early 1983, so we're looking at more than 31 years of monthly data here... you can see that the DOW price, the green price line, was just above 2000 in early 1983... for the top graph, what I find most distinguishable is that the blue line spikes sharply crossing above the red line for all three previous major market bottoms... the second most outstanding feature is that the blue line crosses back below the red line in advance of the market top itself, this monthly DOW LT graph is clearly an early warning for major market bottoms and tops... thirdly, the red line also turns downward at legitimate market tops and not before... so, the key here seems to be to watch for the blue line crossing down below the red line and then also the red line itself turning lower... when that happens, this would highly likely signal a more significant market top... at the end of June, the red line was still moving higher, but had moved higher only .04 of a point...

These are the graph's right axis figures for the red line on this graph, notice how the monthly increase is less and less with each advancing month:

January - - 9.38
February - - 9.51
March- - 9.57
April - - 9.66
May - - 9.72
June - - 9.76

At the end of each month, I will post this LT graph with a current update to review the DOW's progress...

image (5)

For this purple line LT graph, we can see that the purple line has spent very little time above the red line, although we still see that sharp spike crossing upwards and above the red line at VERY MAJOR market lows in advance of the actual market low...

image (6)

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, July 23rd

The September SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
 
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
 
The main model is now long the September SP from 1971.20 as of Tuesday, July 22nd...    
 
For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1975.10...
For Wednesday, a close below 1948.00  in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...    
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator  (the red line)
Despite the confirmed main model buy signal today, the NT indicator continues on a sell spike, however based on the mathematics of the NT formula, I fully expect to see a buy spike for this indicator tomorrow unless the market had a mammoth down day...  for tomorrow, any NYSE daily TRIN more bullish than 1.32 on the close would give us a buy spike here...
image
The LT (Long Term) indicator
The LT graph shows a clean buy spike for today in both the blue and purple lines...  a continued rally tomorrow and the blue will cross above the red line, this is encouraging...
image (1)
image (2)
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
The following are the current upside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP...
A COMMENT HERE:
This market came very close to the new initial upside minor VP and then the rally stopped, well no surprise here...  most of the time, we can see four or five minor and major VPs above this market on a newly confirmed buy signal, and at some distance from the market price itself...  but, if you have noticed, in the past 6 weeks or so there has only been one minor and one major VP, and that VP price is not far from the market itself...  this time, we have two of each, but you can see how close to the market they are...  this suggests that this market is now having a more difficult time moving higher...
minor - - 1980.30
 
minor - - 1981.10
 
Major - - 1995.30 and must close below that price on Wednesday, August 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal... 
 
Major - - 1998.10 and must close below that price on Tuesday, August 5th to confirm a new main model sell signal... 
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2023.30
 
 
For now, the main model remains long the September SP...
 
THE MAIN MODEL HAS NOW BEEN ABLE TO CALCULATE A MAJOR VP FOR THE WEEKLY SP CHART WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE PRICE RANGE OF THIS MARKET SINCE OCTOBER 2007...  THAT PRICE IS 2023.32...  BY THE WAY, THIS IS ALSO TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE...  A COINCIDENCE???
 
The December Gold futures
The main model is now short the December gold from 1309.70 as of Tuesday, July 22nd...
For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1308.60...
For Wednesday, a close above 1337.30 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...   
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
 
Yesterday, I said my biggest concern was that this market looked fatigued...  well, my concern was realized and we have a confirmed sell signal as of today...  as choppy as this market has been, it could just as easily rally tomorrow, but from current the LT pattern, this market may have some downside work to do before it could stage another legitimate rally from here...
image (3)
image (4)
The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...  
 
minor - - 1307.20  (already reached)
 
minor - - 1305.60  (already reached)
 
MAJOR - - 1294.20 and must close above that price on Friday, August 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal... 
 
MAJOR - - 1287.30 and must close above that price on Wednesday, July 30th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
 
minor - - 1254.80
 
MAJOR - - 1214.80 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 27th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
 
 
TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1238.60 
 
 
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 
The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...   
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

For Tuesday, July 22nd

The September SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now short the September SP from 1973.50 as of Thursday, July 17th...

For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1967.60...

For Tuesday, a close above 1971.20 in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT sell spike remains intact and also remains in overbought territory... beyond that, there's nothing critical here to report...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph shows both the blue and purple lines below the red line and still pointing lower... a reluctant decline, but no meaningful rally in sight either for now... we remain short per the main model signal...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP...

minor - - 1943.60 (already reached)

minor - - 1932.60

MAJOR - - 1929.40 and must close above that price on Tuesday, August 5th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1912.70

MAJOR - - 1912.10 and must close above that price on Monday, August 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1881.10 and must close above that price on Monday, August 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

Tomorrow's floor price - - 1789.10

For now, the main model remains short the September SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now long the December gold from 1305.50 as of Thursday, July 17th...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1314.60...

For Tuesday, a close below 1309.70 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

The LT graph shows a market that is still having some difficulty moving higher... although the main model is still long this market, we can see from this graph that the blue and purple lines are both below the red line AND the red line itself is still moving lower, this is just not a bullish picture, not yet anyhow... my concern here is that this market is beginning to show signs of fatigue once again... who knows, we could see a rally tomorrow, and that's what this market needs quickly, or we'll end up short once again...

image (3)
image (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1351.20

MAJOR - - 1374.10 and must close below that price on Thursday, August 21st to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1454.20

Additional VP points will be listed as they are generated by the main model...

As for now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Monday, July 21st

The September SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is now short the September SP from 1973.50 as of Thursday, July 17th...

What a difference a day makes, 24 little hours, the sun and the flowers, oh, okay, back to the markets... some say don't fight the tape, some say don't fight the FED, and some say don't fight the bubble...

For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1971.60...

For Monday, a close above 1971.50 in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal...

Look at the tutorial regarding how to read the VP points, the tutorial is very helpful for knowing how to read the market action during the day, take the time to study it and know it... to review, a modest move away from the VP point and then a revisit to that VP point suggests the current position move is likely to continue... but a reaction away from the VP point of more than 10 to 12 points as we witnessed today suggests a change in direction is forthcoming... last night, the market sold down to the initial minor VP and then rallied more than the typical 10 to 12 points... and then this morning, the market continued that rally... when this happens this is not just a bounce, this is bullish... understanding the market's behavior at the VP points tells you everything you need to know about the market...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator is exactly flat for today, it's going sideways...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

The LT graph is giving us a clear buy spike in both the blue and purple lines today... the red line which was pointing sharply lower yesterday has actually turned very slightly upward today...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP...

minor - - 1943.60 (already reached)

minor - - 1932.60

MAJOR - - 1929.40 and must close above that price on Tuesday, August 5th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1912.70

MAJOR - - 1912.10 and must close above that price on Monday, August 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1881.10 and must close above that price on Monday, August 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

Tomorrow's floor price - - 1789.10 no typo, EGADS!!!

For now, the main model remains short the September SP...

The December Gold futures

The main model is now long the December gold from 1305.50 as of Thursday, July 17th...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1312.60...

For Monday, a close below 1305.50 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This LT graph shows a market that is threatening to move lower once again... keep your eye on the sell confirmation price for Monday...

image (3)
image (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1351.20

MAJOR - - 1374.10 and must close below that price on Thursday, August 21st to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1454.20

Additional VP points will be listed as they are generated by the main model...

As for now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...