For Tuesday, July 1st

The June SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
 
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
 
 
The main model is long the September SP from 1949.30 as of Friday, June 27th...
For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1954.40...
For Tuesday, a close below 1954.30 in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...  yes, this is nearby, but this is the sell confirmation price for tomorrow...
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator  (the red line)
We did get that buy spike today, but a sell confirmation tomorrow would take first priority over any other indicator...  in the face of a nearby sell confirmation price, this buy spike might mean that we'll see a rally away from the sell confirmation price, but I would not remain long if the sell signal is in fact confirmed tomorrow...
image
The LT (Long Term) indicator
Not much upside energy in today's LT graph...  still a sideways movement waiting for direction...  this means this market is stalling once again...
image (1)
image (2)
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
The following are the current upside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP...
minor - - 1950.60 (already reached)
minor - - 1957..70
MAJOR - - 1961.30 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...  getting close...
MAJOR - - 1971.20 and must close below that price on Friday, July 11h to confirm a new main model sell signal...
 
 
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2039.10 (Yikes, no typo)
 
The December Gold futures
The main model is long the December gold from 1271.50 as of Wednesday, June 18th...
For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1329.50...
After 7 consecutive market days of sideways action, the gold market has finally decided to move higher once again...  if this sideways action was the correction, then there is promise for higher gold price to come...
For Tuesday, a close below 1316.10 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...  
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
 
And just in the nick of time!!!  When the purple line was racing towards the red line and about to go under, we have a buy spike and a nice price rally...  the red line is still moving higher, so this rally can continue without too much difficulty for now...
 
image (3)
image (4)
The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...  

 minor - - 1287.30  (already reached)
MAJOR - - 1298.10 and must close below that price on Monday, July 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal...  (already reached)
 
minor - - 1316.10  (already reached)
minor - - 1321.70  (already reached)
minor - - 1338.40
MAJOR - - 1346.10 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
 
MAJOR - - 1357.20 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...  NOTICE THE MAJOR VP DEADLINE DATES ARE ALL IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY, THIS IS SIGNIFICANT...
MAJOR - - 1387.80 and must close below that price on Friday, July 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1347.00 
 
As for now, the main model remains long gold...


 
 
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 
The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...   
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

For Monday, June 30th

SP Futures & Gold Trading Signals to make more money

The June SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

We had a confirmed main model buy signal today...

The main model is now long the September SP from 1949.30 as of Friday, June 27th...

For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1951.70...

For Monday, a close below 1943.30 in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Although we did not get a buy spike from the NT today, we can see that the indicator is now reaching deeply into the oversold zone... unless this market has a catastrophic decline on Monday, the likelihood of a buy spike into Monday's close is very high... in fact, we would need to see a NYSE closing TRIN more bullish than 2.23 and that should not be difficult to do, pending no legitimate disaster over the weekend...

SP Futures & Gold Trading Signals to make more money

The LT (Long Term) indicator

With any upside follow through on Monday, we should see the blue line cross above the red line and begin to head north for the Summer... you can actually see an upward support line along the rising bottom spikes...
SP Futures & Gold Trading Signals to make more money

SP Futures & Gold Trading Signals to make more money

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP...

minor - - 1950.60 (already reached)

minor - - 1957..70

MAJOR - - 1961.30 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1971.20 and must close below that price on Friday, July 11h to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2039.10 (Yikes, no typo)

The December Gold futures

The main model is long the December gold from 1271.50 as of Wednesday, June 18th...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1317.00...

The closest minor VP has stopped the gold rally for 7 consecutive market days so far, and counting...

For Monday, a close below 1316.10 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

We can see from these LT graphs that the gold market has had only two previous super high peaks over the past 18 months, more pronounced with the blue than with the purple line... this current third high is now beginning to turn downward and has been drifting downward in the past few days despite the fact that the gold market itself has been inching slightly higher... the red line shows that the trend is clearly upwards, but the overall graph suggests that the gold market may need a rest for now... we can see the purple line in the lower graph moving rapidly towards the red line... if the purple line crosses below the red line, then we would also very likely have a main model confirmed sell signal for this market based on price itself... these downward turns are sell spike, no doubt about it... also, look at the green price line at those super high peaks, those blue and purple peaks top out well BEFORE the actual price top itself, so this current high peak may be another warning... these blue and purple lines are leading indicators ahead of the market and therefore should not be dismissed too quickly... if this downward trend begins, then we could be looking at a meaningful decline over a period of several weeks before these LT lines can return to normal...

SP Futures & Gold Trading Signals to make more money

 

SP Futures & Gold Trading Signals to make more money

The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1287.30 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1298.10 and must close below that price on Monday, July 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)

minor - - 1316.10 (already reached)

minor - - 1321.70 (already reached)

minor - - 1338.40

MAJOR - - 1346.10 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1357.20 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal... NOTICE THE MAJOR VP DEADLINE DATES ARE ALL IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY, THIS IS SIGNIFICANT...

MAJOR - - 1387.80 and must close below that price on Friday, July 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1347.00

As for now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

SP Futures & Gold Trading Signals to make more money

For Friday, June 27th

The June SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is currently short the September SP from 1953.30 as of Monday, June 23rd...

For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1948.80...

This market has not sold down... and also, this market was within whispering distance of a confirmed buy signal today...

For Friday, a close above 1949.30 in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

We noticed today that the daily NYSE closing TRIN was 1.12 and not below the required 1.11 needed for a buy spike today... maybe tomorrow... and maybe next week, who knows, but this market does looks solid... for tomorrow, we'll need to see something more bullish than .96 for the closing NYSE TRIN to form a buy spike...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

It looks like the LT blue and purple lines are just teetering and waiting for direction...

image (1)

image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP...

minor - - 1893.70

MAJOR - - 1872.00 and must close above that price on Monday, July 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1845.30

minor - - 1839.80

MAJOR - - 1803.90 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1795.50 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal... same exact date...

minor - - 1790.20

MAJOR - - 1722.60 and must close above that price on Monday, September 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1823.80 (no typo)

The December Gold futures

We had another rejected sell signal today, this is two rejected sell signals in two consecutive days... this means two consecutive days of healthy buying after an overnight sell off...

The main model is long the December gold from 1271.50 as of Wednesday, June 18th...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1318.80...

The closest minor VP has stopped the gold rally for 6 consecutive days so far, and counting...

For Friday, a close below 1316.10 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Again, despite the sell spikes, the red line is still moving firmly higher, at least for now...

image (3)
image (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1287.30 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1298.10 and must close below that price on Monday, July 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)

minor - - 1316.10 (already reached)

minor - - 1321.70 (already reached)

minor - - 1338.40

MAJOR - - 1346.10 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1357.20 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal... NOTICE THE MAJOR VP DEADLINE DATES ARE ALL IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY, THIS IS SIGNIFICANT...

MAJOR - - 1387.80 and must close below that price on Friday, July 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1347.00

As for now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this email is not intended to constitute financial advice, and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. This email alert is strictly informational and educational and is not to be construed as any kind of financial advice, investment advice, or legal advice. By accepting and/or using any information contained within this email clearly illustrates that you fully understand and agree to the above terms. Copyright Paul Moskowitz, 2014.

For Thursday, June 26th

The June SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

The main model is currently short the September SP from 1953.30 as of Monday, June 23rd...

For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1949.30...

This market has not sold off yet, reminiscent of the performance of the gold market of the past few days... a modest sell off followed by a return to the VP is bullish...

For Thursday, a close above 1949.30 in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

We can see how low the NT indicator has traveled since the sell spike of a few days ago... and meanwhile, the market has done little in the way of sell down... also, if you look at the NT line itself, you can see how a buy spike is actually setting up... for tomorrow, watch the daily TRIN reading for the NYSE... any closing NYSE TRIN tomorrow more bullish than 1.11 would give us a healthy buy spike with this indicator...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Today, the LT graphs are actually giving us buy spikes in both the blue and purple lines... with a solid buy spike in the NT tomorrow, we could well see the blue line travel north of the red line... this market has been incredibly undecided, but there is no way we'll miss the move once this market makes up its mind...

 

image (1)

image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP...

minor - - 1893.70

MAJOR - - 1872.00 and must close above that price on Monday, July 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1845.30

minor - - 1839.80

MAJOR - - 1803.90 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1795.50 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal... same exact date...

minor - - 1790.20

MAJOR - - 1722.60 and must close above that price on Monday, September 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1823.80 (no typo)

The December Gold futures

Today, we had a rejected sell signal... despite the remarkable weakness overnight, there was enough buying entering this market to compensate and keep the price above the sell zone...

The main model is long the December gold from 1271.50 as of Wednesday, June 18th...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1321.30...

The closest minor VP has stopped the gold rally for 5 consecutive days so far, and counting... BUT, the longer this market hangs around the VP vicinity and not sell down, the more likely this market is preparing for the next lurch higher...

For Thursday, a close below 1316.10 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

We have sell spikes in both LT graphs, but the all important longer term trend line (in red) is still moving higher... so, while vulnerable to a sell off, the trend higher remains intact for now...

image (3)

image (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1287.30 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1298.10 and must close below that price on Monday, July 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)

minor - - 1316.10 (already reached)

minor - - 1321.70 (already reached)

minor - - 1338.40

MAJOR - - 1346.10 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1357.20 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal... NOTICE THE MAJOR VP DEADLINE DATES ARE ALL IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY, THIS IS SIGNIFICANT...

MAJOR - - 1387.80 and must close below that price on Friday, July 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1347.00

As for now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, June 25th

The June SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...

PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...

TODAY'S QUESTION ASKED BY A SUBSCRIBER: In your experience with VP's so far below the market do these act like magnets and generally get hit or will higher VP's eventually get generated....

MY RESPONSE: Yes, the VPs do act as magnets, but when the market reaches and touches the VP price, then the polarity reverses and the VP then repels price back away... but if the price again returns to the VP, then the trend is likely to resume...

The current VPs will remain until their final expiration date, but closer ones could emerge...

The main model is currently short the September SP from 1953.30 as of Monday, June 23rd...

For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1942.90...

We had a rejected buy signal today, this is not constructive for the bulls right now...

For Wednesday, a close above 1957.50 in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT sell spike of the past few days has turned into a sharp down spike... not yet over sold, but no longer over bought... this market is now in the middle of the proverbial no man's land...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

We can see the blue line now penetrate below the red line... this is not a bullish pattern for now... the purple line hasn't been above the red line in weeks, and we now see a bearish divergent top between both the blue and purple lines and the green price line...

image (1)

image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current downside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP... these VP prices seem to be a long distance from the current market price, but there are none closer to the market than these... frankly, there is nothing but thin air between today's close and the nearest minor VP some 60 SP points below the market... it doesn't mean the market must sell down to these levels, but there are no closer VP points at all... perhaps, this is telling us something...

minor - - 1893.70

MAJOR - - 1872.00 and must close above that price on Monday, July 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1845.30

minor - - 1839.80

MAJOR - - 1803.90 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1795.50 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal... same exact date...

minor - - 1790.20

MAJOR - - 1722.60 and must close above that price on Monday, September 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1823.80 (no typo)

The December Gold futures

The main model is long the December gold from 1271.50 as of Wednesday, June 18th...

For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1320.20...

The closest minor VP has stopped the gold rally for 4 consecutive days so far...

For Wednesday, a close below 1320.20 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

The unsettling thing about this LT graph is the development of a sell spike in both the blue and purple lines, and more pronounced in the purple line, see below... this is occurring right at a minor VP point after a 4 day price stall... also, the high level of the B and P lines suggest this market is now well over stretched, and of course, is confirmed by the nearby VP which has a grip on this market right now...

image (3)

image (4)

The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...

minor - - 1287.30 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1298.10 and must close below that price on Monday, July 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal... (already reached)

minor - - 1316.10 (already reached)

minor - - 1321.70 (already reached)

minor - - 1338.40

MAJOR - - 1346.10 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1357.20 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal... NOTICE THE MAJOR VP DEADLINE DATES ARE ALL IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY, THIS IS SIGNIFICANT...

MAJOR - - 1387.80 and must close below that price on Friday, July 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1347.00

As for now, the main model remains long gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, June 24th

The June SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
 
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
 
QUESTION ASKED BY A SUBSCRIBER (actually, several asked throughout the day today):  Does the minor VP have a lesser influence on market price than the major VP?
MY RESPONSE:  Good question, but not really...  just that in an uptrend, when the market is stronger, the price may only stall at the minor VP and then move on to the major VP...  but often enough I've seen the market stop completely at the minor VP after a long run and never reach the major VP...    if the market is weaker, then the minor VP will stop the rally and a sell signal will eventually be confirmed without ever trading up to the major VP...  so, it depends on market strength and weakness and not on whether the VP is minor or major...  the significance of the VP points is that they're key landmark reference points, a place where we can get a bearing on the market's strength and/or weakness...  the VP points give us the opportunity to see how strong or weak the market still is at these check points, sort of like reading its vital signs...  the VPs give us a compass bearing on where the market itself really is in terms of the rally...  so, the VP, minor or major, isn't stronger or weaker than the other, they give us a reference point to measure the market's strength or weakness at those very key price points, if the market stalls temporarily at the minor VP, then it is more likely to stop completely at the major VP for a sell signal soon to follow...
 
Simply said, a weaker market will stop at the minor VP, a stronger market may reach the major VP before turning...
 
We have a confirmed main model sell signal today with a close below 1953.30...  as mentioned and anticipated yesterday, the market traded above the VP and then sold off to close lower on the day...
The main model is currently short the September SP from 1953.30 as of Monday, June 23rd...
For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1951.90...
For Tuesday, a close above 1958.70 in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal...  
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator  (the red line)
A sell spike continues today while in over bought territory and in the VP price zone...
securedownload
The LT (Long Term) indicator
We can see the purple line never returned above the red line, and now the blue line is beginning to cross downward through the red line...  unless the blue line is only kissing the red line for a bounce tomorrow...  overall, the pattern is looking tentative right here...
securedownload (1)
securedownload (2)
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
The following are the current downside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP...   these VP prices seem to be a long distance from the current market price, but there are none closer to the market than these...  frankly, there is nothing but thin air between today's close and the nearest minor VP some 60 SP points below the market...  it doesn't mean the market must sell down to these  levels, but there are no closer VP points at all...  perhaps, this is telling us something...

minor - - 1893.70
MAJOR - - 1872.00 and must close above that price on Monday, July 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...
 
minor - - 1845.30
minor - - 1839.80
MAJOR - - 1803.90   and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
 
MAJOR - - 1795.50 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...  same exact date...
 
minor - - 1790.20
 
MAJOR - - 1722.60 and must close above that price on Monday, September 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...
 
 
 
TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1823.80  (no typo)
The December Gold futures
The main model is long the December gold from 1271.50 as of Wednesday, June 18th...
For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1318.90...
For Tuesday, a close below 1277.80 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
 
The key feature here is the well define upward curve of the red line...  while we see a minimal sell spike in the blue line and a bit more pronounced in the purple line, one would expect that any selling from this point would be bought up since the longer term trend per the clear up curve of the red line is higher...  for now, the two nearby minor VPs are holding the rally in check...
securedownload (3)
securedownload (4)
The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...  

 minor - - 1287.30  (already reached)
MAJOR - - 1298.10 and must close below that price on Monday, July 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal...  (already reached)
 
minor - - 1316.10  (already reached)
minor - - 1321.70  (already reached)
minor - - 1338.40
MAJOR - - 1346.10 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
 
MAJOR - - 1357.20 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...  NOTICE THE MAJOR VP DEADLINE DATES ARE ALL IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY, THIS IS SIGNIFICANT...
MAJOR - - 1387.80 and must close below that price on Friday, July 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1347.00 
 
As for now, the main model remains long gold...


 
 
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 
The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...   
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

For Monday, June 23rd

The June SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
 
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
 
The main model is currently long the September SP from 1927.30 as of Monday, June 16th...
For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1953.90...
For Monday, a close below 1953.20 in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...  
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator  (the red line)
Yesterday's sell spike has gone exactly sideways today...  I'm not worried...
image
The LT (Long Term) indicator
Today we see both the blue and purple lines pause...  mind you, this market is approaching the initial minor VP, so a slow down would be expected here...  for Monday, if this market rallies above the minor VP and then closes below it, then we should expect to see some subsequent selling come into this market...  this is something to watch for on Monday...  depending on the market action on Monday, I may send out a Monday mid day alert, just maybe at this point...
image1
image2
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
The following are the current upside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP...
minor - - 1957..70
MAJOR - - 1972.70 and must close below that price on Tuesday, July 8th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
 
 
NO OTHER VP PRICES HAVE YET BEEN GENERATED...
 
 
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2039.10
The December Gold futures
The main model is now long the December gold from 1271.50 as of Wednesday, June 18th...
For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1319.10...
For Monday, a close below 1268.00 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
 
Today, we see just a minimal pause type jiggle at the top of both the blue and purple lines, although more pronounced in the purple line...  at this point, it looks like this market is merely "digesting its gains," as they say...
image3
image4
 
 
The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...  
 minor - - 1287.30  (already reached)
MAJOR - - 1298.10 and must close below that price on Monday, July 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal...  (already reached)
 
minor - - 1316.10  (already reached)
minor - - 1321.70  (already reached)
minor - - 1338.40
MAJOR - - 1346.10 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
 
MAJOR - - 1357.20 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...  NOTICE THE MAJOR VP DEADLINE DATES ARE ALL IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY, THIS IS SIGNIFICANT...
MAJOR - - 1387.80 and must close below that price on Friday, July 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1347.00 
 
As for now, the main model remains long gold...


 
 
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 
The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... 
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

For Friday, June 20th

he June SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
 
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
 
The main model is currently long the September SP from 1927.30 as of Monday, June 16th...
For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1949.60...
A One final note regarding the weekly SP cash market major VP...  since this is a weekly VP and not a daily VP, it may have a hold on this market for more than just a week or so...  it could take weeks before this market could shake off this weekly VP grip...
 
For Friday, a close below 1920.50 in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...  
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator  (the red line)
Today, we're looking at an NT sell spike, so expect to see some weakness  overnight and possibly tomorrow morning...  also, you can see that the NT indicator is now well into the overbought zone...  if we reach the initial minor VP tomorrow, that could trigger some additional selling...
Capture
The LT (Long Term) indicator
The purple line continues to stay well below the red line, this is not encouraging...   the blue line (and the purple line) is now giving a minimal sell spike...  will this develop into something more???
Capture1
Capture2
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
The following are the current upside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP...
minor - - 1957..70
MAJOR - - 1972.70 and must close below that price on Tuesday, July 8th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
 
 
NO OTHER VP PRICES HAVE YET BEEN GENERATED...
 
 
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2039.10
The December Gold futures
The main model is now long the December gold from 1271.50 as of Wednesday, June 18th...
And what a nice move we had today!!!
For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1319.10...
For Friday, a close below 1268.00 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
 
Wow, have you ever seen such a sharp up spike???  All lines are moving higher, especially the red line which gives us the longer term trend...  apparently, after being in intensive care for a few days, this market has recovered rather nicely!!!  LOL!!!
Capture3
Capture4
 
The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...  

 minor - - 1287.30  (already reached)
MAJOR - - 1298.10 and must close below that price on Monday, July 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal...  (already reached)
 
minor - - 1316.10  (already reached)
minor - - 1321.70  (already reached)
minor - - 1338.40
MAJOR - - 1346.10 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
 
MAJOR - - 1357.20 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...  NOTICE THE MAJOR VP DEADLINE DATES ARE ALL IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY, THIS IS SIGNIFICANT...
MAJOR - - 1387.80 and must close below that price on Friday, July 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1347.00 
 
As for now, the main model remains long gold...


 
 
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 
The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... 
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

For Thursday, June 19th

The June SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
 
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
 
The main model is currently long the September SP from 1927.30 as of Monday, June 16th...
For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1949.10...
Directly below is the comment I wrote yesterday:
 
A quick note regarding the weekly SP cash market:
The longer term weekly SP cash market has now reached it's highest major VP, that price is 1939.81 and it was reached last week...  this is not the daily chart, this is the WEEKLY chart...  upon reaching the VP, the SP cash market continued to rally up to 1955.55 last Monday before selling down to 1925.78 last Thursday, so this current buy signal as of yesterday could be the recovery rally to newer highs again per the standard VP rule of revisiting the VP after a brief sell off...  either way, the mere fact that this market has now reached its long term weekly major upside VP is well worthy of mentioning here... the SP cash market closed today at 1941.99, this is above its major VP...
 
A comment for today:
 
It's beginning to appear as if we already saw the sell off last week and the revisit to the major weekly VP...  this market now appears to be heading higher...
 
For Thursday, a close below 1919.30 in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...  
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator  (the red line)
NOTE:  IF YOU CANNOT SEE THESE LT GRAPHS, THEN PLEASE LET ME KNOW...
We now see the NT indicator well into the overbought zone as this market approached the initial minor VP at 1957.70, just about 8 points above today's close...  I think it's reasonable to expect to see the market attempt to reach for the initial minor VP tomorrow and also a possible sell spike for the NT indicator going into Friday...  but, we'll see what tomorrow brings us...
Capture
The LT (Long Term) indicator
We can see the blue line clearly crossed above the red line today, and with some conviction...  both the blue and the purple gave us a buy spike today...
Capture1
Capture2
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
The following are the current upside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP...
minor - - 1957..70
MAJOR - - 1972.70 and must close below that price on Tuesday, July 8th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
 
 
NO OTHER VP PRICES HAVE YET BEEN GENERATED...
 
 
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2039.10
The December Gold futures
We had a confirmed main model buy signal for gold today...
The main model is now long the December gold from 1271.50 as of Wednesday, June 18th...
For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1275.20...
For Thursday, a close below 1259.60 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
 
As mentioned yesterday, both the blue and purple lines are holding nicely above the red line...  this was encouraging yesterday, and today we did see a nice upside follow through as well as a main model buy signal confirmation...  the red line is still moving higher, the red line suggests a much longer term market direction, and with today's buy confirmation there is reason to suspect that the gold market should now continue higher from here...
Capture3
Capture4
 

The following are the current upside VPs for DECEMBER gold...  

 minor - - 1287.30
MAJOR - - 1298.10 and must close below that price on Monday, July 7th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
 
minor - - 1316.10
minor - - 1321.70
minor - - 1338.40
MAJOR - - 1346.10 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
 
MAJOR - - 1357.20 and must close below that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model sell signal...  NOTICE THE MAJOR VP DEADLINE DATES ARE ALL IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY, THIS IS SIGNIFICANT...
MAJOR - - 1387.80 and must close below that price on Friday, July 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 1347.00 
 
As for now, the main model remains long gold...


 
 
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 
The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... 
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

Continue reading

For Wednesday, June 18th

The June SP Futures

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
 
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
 
The main model is currently long the September SP from 1927.30 as of Monday, June 16th...
For the September SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1933.60...
A quick note regarding the weekly SP cash market:
The longer term weekly SP cash market has now reached it's highest major VP, that price is 1939.81 and it was reached last week...  this is not the daily chart, this is the WEEKLY chart...  upon reaching the VP, the SP cash market continued to rally up to 1955.55 last Monday before selling down to 1925.78 last Thursday, so this current buy signal as of yesterday could be the recovery rally to newer highs again per the standard VP rule of revisiting the VP after a brief sell off...  either way, the mere fact that this market has now reached its long term weekly major upside VP is well worthy of mentioning here... the SP cash market closed today at 1941.99, this is above its major VP...
For Wednesday, a close below 1918.70 in the September SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...  
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator  (the red line)
NOTE:  IF YOU CANNOT SEE THESE LT GRAPHS, THEN PLEASE LET ME KNOW...
Okay, the NT generated a buy spike today, looks like a sideways choppy market from here...
Inline image 1
The LT (Long Term) indicator
The lower graph with the purple line is showing a more negative bias...  we see a minimal buy spike that need to develop better, maybe tomorrow...  this rally is beginning to appear tentative at the moment, this is troubling...  tomorrow, things can change if the blue line could move back above the red line...
 
Inline image 3
Inline image 4
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
The following are the current upside VPs for the SEPTEMBER SP...
minor - - 1957..70
MAJOR - - 1972.70 and must close below that price on Tuesday, July 8th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
 
 
NO OTHER VP PRICES HAVE YET BEEN GENERATED...
 
 
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2039.10
The December Gold futures
The main model is now short the December gold from 1276.60 as of Monday, June 16th...
For the December gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1271.50...
For a down day in the gold market today, the price held rather well...  possibly, this was only a pause before the rally resumes...  we'll know better tomorrow...
For Wednesday, a close above 1271.50 in the DECEMBER gold futures contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
 
Of course, the bearish divergence between the blue and purple lines in these graphs remains from yesterday...  and a sell spike continues...  a turn higher tomorrow could well mean the end of the selling, both the purple and blue lines remain well above the red line, this is constructive for this market...
 
Inline image 5
Inline image 6
 
 
The following are the current downside VPs for DECEMBER gold...  
 minor - - 1239.00
MAJOR - - 1219.40 and must close above that price on Wednesday, July 9th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
 
NO OTHER VP PRICES HAVE YET BEEN GENERATED...
 
 
TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1154.40 
 
As for now, the main model remains SHORT gold...
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...
 
The Confirmation Price
 
The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal...  the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick...  but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability...  as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun...  very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky...  the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price...  but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending...  this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 
The VP Price
 
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... 
 
The Floor/Ceiling Price
 
The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend...  these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them...  these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not...  a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...
 
If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...  
 
 
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...