For Thursday, May 1st

The June SP Futures
A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
 
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
The main model is now long the June SP from 1872.00 as of Wednesday, April 30th...   
For the JUNE SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1878.60... 
For Thursday, a close below 1878.80 in the June SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...   
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator
Today, the buy spike was muffled and is bend downward, but the main model buy signal confirmation takes priority over any other indicator...  it seems more than likely that the spike will continue higher again tomorrow since the main model has the bulls on its side after today...
The LT (Long Term) indicator
The blue line is now deeper into the buy confirmed zone and the purple is fast approaching...  yesterday's LT chart is directly below today's chart for comparison...
The following are the current upside VPs for the JUNE SP...
minor - - 1884.00
minor - - 1896.70
MAJOR - - 1899.30 and must close below that price on Monday, June 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 1901.40 and must close below that price on Monday, May 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 1936.00 and must close below that price on Friday, June 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
For now, the main model remains long the SP...
The June Gold futures
The main model is now short June gold from 1296.00 as of Wednesday, April 30th...
For the June gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1291.00...
The gold market has been so choppy, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a rally again tomorrow...  either way, the main model will not all this market to run away from us, if it runs away at all...
 
For Thursday, a close above 1306.60 in the June gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...   
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
There's really very little difference between today's and yesterday's LT gold graph other than that the blue line has crossed south of the border into the sell zone, see yesterday's graph below today's graph...
The following are the current downside VPs for June gold...  you will notice that some of the previous VP points from an earlier short gold position are still active, they always remain active until their expiration date...
minor - - 1272.70
 
MAJOR - - 1250.30  and must close above that price on Wednesday, May 14th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1282.40
MAJOR - - 1270.70 and must close above that price on Wednesday, May 7th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
 
As for now, the main model remains short gold...
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 
The VP Price
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... 
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a change in trend direction...
 
 
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

For Wednesday, April 30th

The June SP Futures
A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
 
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
The main model is Continue reading

For Tuesday, April 29th

The June SP Futures
A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
 
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
The main model is now short the June SP from 1872.00 as of Friday, April 25th...   
For the JUNE SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1865.10...
For Tuesday, a close above 1872.00 in the June SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal...   
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator
The sell spike continues downward, the downward pressure continues, but it now looks like a possible buy spike is beginning to set up for tomorrow...  we'll need a confirming close to feel good about going long here...
 

The LT (Long Term) indicator
Today, the blue imminent warning line has crossed above the red line...  so, we could see a rally tomorrow and, if so, then we'll have our confirmed buy signal...  otherwise, it's down and dirty for another day, at least...
The following are the current downside VPs for the JUNE SP...
minor - - 1854.80  (already reached)
MAJOR - - 1844.10 and must close above that price on Monday, May 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...  THIS MAJOR VP WAS ALMOST REACHED TODAY AND THEN A SMART RALLY...  THIS IS BULLISH!!!
minor - - 1798.20
MAJOR - - 1764.50 and must close above that price on Friday, June 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
For now, the main model remains short the SP...
The June Gold futures
The main model is long June gold from 1289.70 as of Monday, April 21st...
For the June gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1296.30...
For Tuesday, a close below 1296.00 in the June gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...   
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
For some very odd reason, gold doesn't seem to be able to get out of its own way for a sustained rally of any real significance...  oh, well...  the blue line is about to cross below the red line...  further weakness tomorrow will put us short and take the blue and also probably the purple line south of the border once again...
The following are the current upside VPs for June gold...
minor - - 1334.30
minor - - 1348.50
MAJOR - - 1362.70 and must close below that price on Tuesday, June 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 1375.80 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 1400.60
MAJOR - - 1449.10 and must close below that price on Friday, June 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
As for now, the main model remains long gold...
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 
The VP Price
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... 
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a change in trend direction...
 
 
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 


Continue reading

For Monday, April 28th

The June SP Futures
A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
 
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
The main model is now short the June SP from 1872.00 as of Friday, April 25th...   
For the JUNE SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1859.70... 
For Monday, a close above 1872.00 in the June SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal...   
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator
The sell spike continues downward, the downward pressure continues...
The LT (Long Term) indicator
Today, and finally, both the blue and purple lines are south of the red line...  in fact, if you look at the three previous blue tops, you could actually draw a trend line across those peaks...  while the market itself continued higher during that period, the blue peaks are descending...  this is a loss of momentum, and today it finally broke...  the most recent three LT graphs can be seen directly below to illustrate the movement of these line with the market...
The following are the current downside VPs for the JUNE SP...
minor - - 1854.80  (already reached)
MAJOR - - 1844.10 and must close above that price on Monday, May 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1798.20
MAJOR - - 1764.50 and must close above that price on Friday, June 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
For now, the main model remains short the SP...
The June Gold futures
The main model is long June gold from 1289.70 as of Monday, April 21st...
Could gold be out of the woods now???  Hopefully...  the LT looks good...  and we have a reasonable gain in this position so far...
For the June gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1302.60...
For Monday, a close below 1296.00 in the June gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...   
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
This LT graph looks like the inverse of the SP LT picture...  here, we can see both the blue and purple lines have safely crossed the border and are both pointing higher...  in fact, the red line has also turned higher ever so slightly today...  another good rally for this market and you would see the red line more clearly...  below this LT graph are several of the consecutive previous ones, this way you could see the movement and development of the current chart over several days...
The following are the current upside VPs for June gold...
minor - - 1334.30
minor - - 1348.50
MAJOR - - 1362.70 and must close below that price on Tuesday, June 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 1375.80 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 1400.60
MAJOR - - 1449.10 and must close below that price on Friday, June 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
As for now, the main model remains long gold...
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 
The VP Price
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... 
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a change in trend direction...
 
 
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

Continue reading

For Friday, April 25th

The June SP Futures
A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
 
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
The main model is long the June SP from 1824.50 as of Tuesday, April 15th...   
For the JUNE SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1873.10...
Another rejected sell signal, but no reactionary rally...
For Friday, a close below 1872.00 in the June SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...   this market needs to move away from this level soon or the selling will resume once again...
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator
The sell spike is still intact, nothing has changed from yesterday...  the downward pressure for this market remains high...
The LT (Long Term) indicator
The LT begins to show some weakness...  yesterday's LT, seen below today's LT, shows a solid up trend...  but, today, you can see that both the purple and the blue lines have turned lower and the early warning purple line is not quite touching the red confirmation line...  with a sell signal confirmation, I would suspect the warning line would also be south of the red line...  for comparison, take a look at yesterday's LT, the difference is dramatic...
The following are the current upside VPs for the JUNE SP...
minor - - 1872.00  (already reached)
minor - - 1896.70
MAJOR - - 1899.30 and must close below that price on Monday, June 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 1936.00 and must close below that price on Friday, June 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
For now, the main model remains long the SP...
The June Gold futures
The main model is long June gold from 1289.70 as of Monday, April 21st...
Today, we had our third consecutive rejected sell signal...  this time, the rally following that rejection was impressive, a 30 dollar rally and is more typical of a rejected sell signal...  this is definitely hopeful...
For the June gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1292.70...
For Friday, a close below 1268.70 in the June gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...   
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
Today, the early warning line has crossed above the confirmation line, but not yet for the blue line...  for comparison, yesterday's LT is below today's LT graph, and Tuesday's LT is below yesterday's...  there is certainly a hopeful progression among these graphs, especially since we're long this market, and not to forget THREE consecutive rejected sell signals...
The following are the current upside VPs for June gold...
minor - - 1334.30
minor - - 1348.50
MAJOR - - 1362.70 and must close below that price on Tuesday, June 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 1375.80 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 1400.60
MAJOR - - 1449.10 and must close below that price on Friday, June 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
As for now, the main model remains long gold...
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 
The VP Price
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... 
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a change in trend direction...
 
 
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

Continue reading

For Thursday, April 24th

The June SP Futures
A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
 
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
The main model is long the June SP from 1824.50 as of Tuesday, April 15th...   
For the JUNE SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1880.10...
Well, so much for a possible mid afternoon sell signal, but that line in the sand had to be defended this afternoon or else...
For Thursday , a close below 1872.00 in the June SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...   
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator
The sell spike is still intact, this sell spike has warned us of a possible sell off...  maybe, today's selling will be the end of it...
The LT (Long Term) indicator
The LT continues to look solid...
The following are the current upside VPs for the JUNE SP...
minor - - 1872.00  (already reached)
minor - - 1896.70
MAJOR - - 1899.30 and must close below that price on Monday, June 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 1936.00 and must close below that price on Friday, June 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
For now, the main model remains long the SP...
The June Gold futures
The main model is long June gold from 1289.70 as of Monday, April 21st...
Gold still looks as if it's struggle and fighting  a high fever...
For the June gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1284.10...
For Thursday, a close below 1277.70 in the June gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...   
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
Today, we can see both the purple and blue lines turning upwards...  this is hopeful...  yesterday's gold LT can be seen directly below for comparison...
The following are the current upside VPs for June gold...
minor - - 1348.50
MAJOR - - 1375.80 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 1400.60
MAJOR - - 1449.10 and must close below that price on Friday, June 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
As for now, the main model remains long gold...
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 
The VP Price
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... 
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a change in trend direction...
 
 
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

Continue reading

For Wednesday, April 23rd

The June SP Futures
A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
 
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
The main model is long the June SP from 1824.50 as of Tuesday, April 15th...   
For the JUNE SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1873.80...  
For Wednesday, a close below 1870.00 in the June SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...   
 
Depending on tonight's overnight market action, I may send out a mid day SP alert for tomorrow to revised the sell signal price closer to the market...
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator
Yesterday's sell spike appears to be more pronounced today...  be on the look out for a possible sell off for a day or so, realize the market did reach the initial minor VP today, although the longer term trend is still higher as of now...
The LT (Long Term) indicator
The LT picture still look pretty, everything is pointing higher for now...
The following are the current upside VPs for the JUNE SP...
minor - - 1872.00  (already reached)
minor - - 1896.70
MAJOR - - 1899.30 and must close below that price on Monday, June 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 1936.00 and must close below that price on Friday, June 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
For now, the main model remains long the SP...
The June Gold futures
The main model is long June gold from 1289.70 as of Monday, April 21st...
We had another rejected sell signal today for the gold market...  will it try again tomorrow?  Also, after yesterday's rejected sell signal, we didn't see a rally today...
For the June gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1284.50...
For Tuesday, a close below 1276.70 in the June gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...   
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
Everything is still pointing lower...  we had a second rejected sell signal today, this market really wants to hold here, but we'll see what it does tomorrow...  any reasonable rally would turn the purple and blue warning lines upwards...
The following are the current upside VPs for June gold...
minor - - 1348.50
MAJOR - - 1375.80 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 1400.60
MAJOR - - 1449.10 and must close below that price on Friday, June 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
As for now, the main model remains long gold...
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 
The VP Price
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... 
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a change in trend direction...
 
 
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

Continue reading

For Tuesday, April 22nd

The June SP Futures
Did you miss me???  We had a wonderful time, but it's also great to be back home...  all suspended subscriptions have been reactivated as of today...  if you find any calendar discrepancies, please let me know...
A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
The main model is long the June SP from 1824.50 as of Tuesday, April 15th...   although I was away, the main model still does generate signals when brought up to date...  I will explain the signal here so it doesn't look "too convenient" in retrospect...  last Monday's cascade of selling down to the very and exact floor price of 1803.60 and the major downside VP of 1805.50 was definitely an invitation to buy, we only needed a higher close the following day to confirm that signal...  this doesn't mean the market won't attempt to revisit this recent low, but for now we can ride this wave for as long as it lasts...  also, we had a second buy signal confirmation as of today's close with a close above 1864.50, the market closed at 1864.80...  good enough...
For the JUNE SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1864.80...
For Tuesday, a close below 1802.30 in the June SP futures would confirm a new main model sell signal...   
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator
We had a sell spike today in addition to a second confirmed buy signal, so be aware for some early morning weakness possible but the trend for now continues higher...
The LT (Long Term) indicator
Here's a pretty picture...  the purple and blue lines have crossed above the confirmation line and the confirmation line itself is moving higher, what could be better?  The trend is upwards for now...
The following are the current upside VPs for the JUNE SP...
minor - - 1872.00
minor - - 1896.70
MAJOR - - 1899.30 and must close below that price on Monday, June 2nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 1936.00 and must close below that price on Friday, June 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
For now, the main model remains long the SP...
The June Gold futures
The main model is now long June gold from 1289.70 as of Monday, April 21st...
While I was away, the main model took a sell signal in gold with a close below 1300.30 last week...  today, the main model is again long based on a rejected second sell signal...
For the June gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1289.70...
For Tuesday, a close below 1282.70 in the June gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...   
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
Everything is pointing lower...  let's see if this rejected second sell signal holds up, we should see a rally from here...  and a rally would turn the purple and blue warning lines upwards...
The following are the current upside VPs for June gold...
minor - - 1348.50
MAJOR - - 1375.80 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 1400.60
MAJOR - - 1449.10 and must close below that price on Friday, June 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
As for now, the main model remains long gold...
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 
The VP Price
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... 
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a change in trend direction...
 
 
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

For Tuesday, April 8th

The June SP Futures
AS OF TOMORROW, I'LL BE OUT OF THE OFFICE THROUGH APRIL 18TH, THIS MEANS YOU WILL MISS 8 EMAIL BRIEFINGS IN MY ABSENCE...  I'M TAKING MY WIFE ON A CRUISE FOR HER BIRTHDAY...  BUT TO COMPENSATE FOR YOUR PATIENCE AND YOUR KINDNESS WHILE I'M OUT, ALL ACTIVE SUBSCRIBERS HAD THEIR SUBSCRIPTION CLOCKS SUSPENDED AS OF TODAY FOR TWO FULL WEEKS FROM APRIL 7TH TO APRIL 21ST TO COMPENSATE FOR THOSE 8 DAYS, THIS WILL ACTUALLY EXTEND YOUR SUBSCRIPTION BY A FEW DAYS AS MY APPRECIATION FOR ALLOWING ME SOME VACATION TIME...  THANKS FOR UNDERSTANDING...
A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
The main model  is short the June SP from 1881.30 as of Friday, April 4th... 
For the JUNE SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1838.10...
For Tuesday, a close above 1838.10 in the June SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal...   we could see more early selling tomorrow, just maybe, but a higher close tomorrow would turn the model bullish...
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator
The earlier sell spike is continuing downward...  while still very much in overbought territory for now, it could still turn upward from here, this is a near term indicator...
The LT (Long Term) indicator
Not a pretty picture for the moment, but moving into the oversold zone...
The following are the current downside VPs for the JUNE SP...  note the MAJOR VP due dates are only one day apart...
minor - - 1830.00
minor - - 1818.00
MAJOR - - 1805.20 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1789.00 and must close above that price on Monday, May 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
For now, the main model remains short the SP...
The June Gold futures
The main model is now short June gold from 1299.40 as of Monday, April 7th...
For the June gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1296.90...
For Tuesday, a close above 1307.50 in the June gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...   
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
From this chart, we can see both the purple and blue lines almost touched the red line but then fall away...  the purple line is covering over the blue line, so the blue line is not easily visible, but it's there...
The following are the current downside VPs for June gold...
MAJOR - - 1293.80 and must close above that price on Tuesday, April 29th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1282.70 and must close above that price on Tuesday, April 29th to confirm a new main model buy signal...  NOTICE THE SAME DATES WERE GENERATED FOR BOTH MAJOR VP POINTS...
MAJOR - - 1263.40 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 30th to confirm a new main model buy signal...  AND THIS MAJOR VP IS SCHEDULED ONLY ONE DAY LATER...
As for now, the main model remains short gold...
BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 
The VP Price
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... 
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a change in trend direction...
 
 
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS... 

For Monday, April 7th

The June SP Futures
JUST A REMINDER, AND ESPECIALLY TO ALL NEW AND RECENT SUBSCRIBERS, THAT I'LL BE OUT OF THE OFFICE FROM APRIL 9TH THROUGH APRIL 18TH, THIS MEANS YOU WILL MISS 8 EMAIL BRIEFINGS IN MY ABSENCE...  I'M TAKING MY WIFE ON A CRUISE FOR HER BIRTHDAY...  BUT TO COMPENSATE FOR YOUR PATIENCE AND YOUR KINDNESS WHILE I'M OUT, ALL ACTIVE SUBSCRIBERS WILL HAVE THEIR SUBSCRIPTION CLOCKS SUSPENDED FOR TWO FULL WEEKS FROM APRIL 7TH TO APRIL 21ST TO COMPENSATE FOR THOSE 8 DAYS, THIS WILL ACTUALLY EXTEND YOUR SUBSCRIPTION BY A FEW DAYS AS MY APPRECIATION FOR ALLOWING ME SOME VACATION TIME...  THANKS FOR UNDERSTANDING...
I will send out an email briefing on Monday evening...
A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience...
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO REVIEW THE TUTORIAL EVERY NOW AND THEN, THESE ARE THE NAVIGATIONAL TOOLS NEEDED TO MANEUVER SAFELY THROUGH THESE MARKETS, A GOOD WORKING KNOWLEDGE OF THESE TOOLS WILL MAKE YOU A BETTER AND MORE INFORMED INVESTOR/TRADER...
The main model is now short the June SP from 1881.30 as of Friday, April 4th... 
For the JUNE SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1861.10...
Today we had a spectacular sell signal and confirmation...  the initial major VP at 1891.40 stopped the morning rally in its tracks...  the high of the day was 1892.00, and then the market fell out of bed...
For Monday, a close above 1891.20 in the June SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal... 
 
The NT (Near Term) indicator
As we can see, yesterday's modest sell spike is more developed today...  considering today's confirmed sell signal and the depth of the sell off today, to say the sell spike is more developed today is quite an understatement...
The LT (Long Term) indicator
On Wednesday, we saw the early warning (purple) line hesitate as it approached  the confirmation (red) line...  yesterday, the warning line fell away from the confirmation line, and today we can see that the warning line is moving lower...  the imminent warning (blue) line is also moving lower and has actually crossed south of the border, which is the red confirmation line...  this tells us that the trend is clearly lower for now...
Another noteworthy mention here is that the market made a higher high than the previous high, but the blue line didn't...  this is negative divergence which was clearly illustrated in dramatic fashion today with the market action itself...
Below is yesterday's LT for comparison, we can see the early warning line hesitate and turn back...  the blue line is still above the red line here...
The following are the current downside VPs for the JUNE SP...  note the MAJOR VP due dates are only one day apart...
minor - - 1830.00
minor - - 1818.00
MAJOR - - 1805.20 and must close above that price on Tuesday, May 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1789.00 and must close above that price on Monday, May 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
For now, the main model remains short the SP...
The June Gold futures
The main model is long June gold from 1299.40 as of Friday, April 4th...
For the June gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1304.40...
For Monday, a close below  1299.40 in the June gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...   
 
The LT (Long Term) Indicator
The early warning purple line is actually covering over the blue line today...  both are moving upwards towards the red line at high speed...  a close on Monday at 1309.30 would actually take the blue line above the red line...  this would be bullish, for sure...  as suggested in an earlier email briefing, it looks very much like the gold market is now forming the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulder pattern...  that would project gold to around 1450 or so, considering the standard measured move for an inverted head and shoulder pattern such as this one...
Below is yesterday's LT for comparison...
The following are the current upside VPs for June gold...
minor - - 1348.50
MAJOR - - 1375.80 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 1400.60
MAJOR - - 1449.10 and must close below that price on Friday, June 13th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
As for now, the main model remains long gold...


BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:
 
The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price...
 
The NT Indicator
 

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days...  using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop...  if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

 
How To Read The NT Indicator
 
The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...
 
The VP Price
The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price...  however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... 
 
How To Read The VP Price
 
If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this more than likely indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over... 
 
A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal
 
One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points...  after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day...  then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position...  and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position...  your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced...  this is a method I use for myself very often...
 
Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...
 
Rejected Buy/Sell Signals
 
Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule...  a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally...  as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline...  however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...
 
The Long Term (LT) Indicator
 

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

 
The green line = the closing price for the specific market
 
The red line = the confirmation line
 
The purple line = the early warning line
 
The blue line = the imminent warning line
 
The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a change in trend direction...
 
 
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...