For Friday, January 31st

The March SP futures
The main model is short the March SP at 1834.70 as of Friday, January 17th...

The buy signal was triggered again this morning, but again it faded into oblivion by the close...  this is two consecutive days and two consecutive rejected buy signals...  this is beginning to look suspicious and places the long side into more serious doubt for now...

Also, the NT indicator is still moving higher, however it is now entering overbought territory which is hard to believe considering that this market has done nothing but go sideways for two days...  this means there was lots of buying coming into this market over the last few days, but the price didn't move much...  this may not be a good sign for those buyers...  overall, this may be not encouraging for anyone holding a long position, so it's good that the main model has kept us short from the original signal...

For the March SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1781.20...

For Friday, a close above 1793.20 in the March SP futures would confirm a new main model buy signal...

I will likely not issue any morning updates tomorrow morning for a lower buy price, this market now has to prove itself, two consecutive rejected buy signals and an over bought NT doesn't bode well for a buy signal, but who knows what tomorrow may bring...

The following are the current downside VPs for the March SP...

 

minor - - 1815.00(already reached)

 

minor - - 1806.70 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1799.70 (already reached) and must close above that price on Monday, February 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

MAJOR - - 1792.00 (already reached) and must close above that price on Monday, February 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

minor - - 1747.00

 

MAJOR - - 1704.30 and must close above that price on Tuesday, March 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

 

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

 

The February Gold futures

 

The main model is short February gold from 1256.90 as of Tuesday, January 28th...

 

For the February gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1242.90...

 

For Friday, a close above 1270.60 in the February gold contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...



The following are the current downside VPs for February gold...

minor - - 1227.10

MAJOR - - 1206.10 and must close above that price on Tuesday, March 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1197.10

MAJOR - - 1164.500 and must close above that price on Thursday, March 6th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

As for now, the main model remains short gold...

 

 


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For Tuesday, January 28th

The March SP futures

The main model is short the March SP at 1834.70 as of Friday, January 17th...
For the March SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1773.00...


For Tuesday, a close above 1788.50 would confirm a new main model buy signal...
The NT indicator gave us a buy spike today while in deep oversold territory, so we can surely expect to see some bounce right here...  for aggressive traders, a buy may be worth the risk here, but this is certainly not a main model buy signal...  see the NT indicator directly below... 




Directly below is the daily SP future chart, you can see there's also a possibility for a bounce right here, but no guarantees...



The following are the current downside VPs for the March SP...
minor - - 1815.00(already reached)
minor - - 1806.70 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1799.70 (already reached) and must close above that price on Monday, February 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1792.00 (already reached) and must close above that price on Monday, February 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1747.00
MAJOR - - 1704.30 and must close above that price on Tuesday, March 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
For now, the main model remains short the SP...
The February Gold futures
The main model is long February gold from 1240.40 as of Thursday, January 16th...
For the February gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1256.90...
For Tuesday, a close below 1256.90 in the February gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

Of course, gold could break out above it's long term overhead resistance line, but trading on hope is never a wise thing to do...  see the daily gold chart as of today directly below...



The following are the current upside VPs for February gold...
MAJOR - - 1237.70 (already reached and still active until January 28th) and must close below that price on Tuesday, January 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1249.30 (already reached)
minor - - 1256.20 (already reached)
MAJOR - - 1262.70 (already reached) and must close below that price on Wednesday, January 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 1284.70 and must close below that price on Monday, February 10th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
As for now, the main model remains long gold...
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 
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For Monday, January 27th

The March SP futures
The main model is short the March SP at 1834.70 as of Friday, January 17th...
For the March SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1784.30...

It was only last Friday that we entered the current short position at 1834.70, and while the market kept trying to rally, the main model stayed the course and now we reap the rewards...  50 SP points gained in one week is fine with me!!!  Most of it, today!!!  But now, we should be clear of the shallow water and the dangerous rocks...
Yesterday, we had a second main model sell signal confirmation...  and now, as rare as it is, today, we had a THIRD main model sell signal confirmation...  I didn't send out a notice on the third signal since it was already academic at this point, but a close today below 1814.10 confirms a third main model sell signal...  this is rare!!!

So, what does three confirmed sell signals mean???  This means that the selling is likely to be more significant than a typical several day pull back...  in fact, with the SP down 41 points today it certainly verifies the obvious, we may be looking at a more significant top lasting more than just a few days...

For Monday, a close above 1838.10 would confirm a new main model buy signal...
The NT indicator took a dive today along with the market...  actually, the market finished the day near two major VPs, so a buy spike on Monday might be worth a try for the more aggressive trader... 

The following are the current downside VPs for the March SP...
minor - - 1815.00(already reached)
minor - - 1806.70 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1799.70 (already reached) and must close above that price on Monday, February 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1792.00 (already reached) and must close above that price on Monday, February 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1747.00
MAJOR - - 1704.30 and must close above that price on Tuesday, March 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
For now, the main model remains short the SP...
The February Gold futures
The main model is long February gold from 1240.40 as of Thursday, January 16th...
For the February gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1268.70...
For Monday, a close below 1235.50 (same price) in the February gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...
The following are the current upside VPs for February gold...
MAJOR - - 1237.70 (already reached and still active until January 28th) and must close below that price on Tuesday, January 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1249.30 (already reached)
minor - - 1256.20 (already reached)
MAJOR - - 1262.70 (already reached) and must close below that price on Wednesday, January 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 1284.70 and must close below that price on Monday, February 10th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
As for now, the main model remains long gold...
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 
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For Friday, January 24th

The March SP futures
The main model is short the March SP at 1834.70 as of Friday, January 17th...
For the March SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1822.20...
We had a second main model sell signal confirmation today with a close below 1826.20...  this is not to suggest you take another short position, but just that a second confirmed sell signal suggests a more significant top may be in place, and therefore the decline may well be deeper and longer term...  the market did sell down to the first minor VP before it rallied, so expect possibly more buying from here, but the broader trend is lower for now...
For Friday, a close above 1842.80 would confirm a new main model buy signal...
The NT indicator is flat today...  yesterday's minimal buy spike had no effect on this market...
The following are the current downside VPs for the March SP...
minor - - 1815.00(already reached)
minor - - 1806.70MAJOR - - 1801.00 and must close above that price on Friday, January 31st to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1792.00 and must close above that price on Monday, February 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1747.00
MAJOR - - 1705.30 and must close above that price on Monday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
For now, the main model remains short the SP...
The February Gold futures
The main model is long February gold from 1240.40 as of Thursday, January 16th...
For the February gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1261.90...
Last night, the gold market sold off and triggered a sell signal, but then rallied soon thereafter to save the position...  a rejected sell signal is typically bullish, and today's recovery rally is proof enough of that...  in fact, the gold market rallied to the first major upside VP before stalling, there should be no surprise that a major VP would stall a rally...  as said so many times earlier, never ignore the major VP prices too quickly...  therefore, gold could back off, but the trend is clearly higher for now...
For Friday, a close below 1235.50 in the February gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...
The following are the current upside VPs for February gold...
MAJOR - - 1237.70 (already reached and still active until January 28th) and must close below that price on Tuesday, January 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 1249.30 (already reached)
minor - - 1256.20 (already reached)
MAJOR - - 1262.70 (already reached) and must close below that price on Wednesday, January 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 1284.70 and must close below that price on Monday, February 10th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
As for now, the main model remains long gold...
The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...
 
NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...
 

For Thursday, January 23rd

The March SP futures

The main model is short the March SP at 1834.70 as of Friday, January 17th...
For the March SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1838.50...
 
This market has been a teaser for the past two weeks!!!
 

For Thursday, a close above 1842.60 would confirm a new main model buy signal...
Also for Thursday, a close below 1826.20 would confirm a second main model sell signal...The NT indicator issued a minimal buy spike on the close today, so we could expect some buying here...  whether or not this buying would be enough to trigger a buy signal is yet to be seen...

 

 

The following are the current downside VPs for the March SP...minor - - 1815.00minor - - 1806.70MAJOR - - 1801.00 and must close above that price on Friday, January 31st to confirm a new main model buy signal...MAJOR - - 1792.00 and must close above that price on Monday, February 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1747.00

MAJOR - - 1705.30 and must close above that price on Monday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

For now, the main model remains short the SP...


The February Gold futures

The main model is now long February gold from 1240.40 as of Thursday, January 16th...
For the February gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1236.00...

 


For Thursday, a close below 1236.00 in the February gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

 

 

 


The following are the current upside VPs for February gold...   

 

 

 

 

 

MAJOR - - 1237.70 (already reached and still active until January 28th) and must close below that price on Tuesday, January 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

 

minor - - 1249.30 (already reached)

 

 

 

 

 

minor - - 1256.20MAJOR - - 1262.70 and must close below that price on Wednesday, January 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

 


MAJOR - - 1284.70  and must close below that price on Monday, February 10th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

 

 

 

 As for now, the main model remains long gold...

 


 

 

 

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

 

 

 

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this email is not intended to constitute financial advice, and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. This email alert is strictly informational and educational and is not to be construed as any kind of financial advice, investment advice, or legal advice. By accepting and/or using any information contained within this email clearly illustrates that you fully understand and agree to the above terms. Copyright Paul Moskowitz, 2013.

 

 

 

 

 

            


For Wednesday, January 22nd

The March SP futures


The main model is short the March SP at 1834.70 as of Friday, January 17th...

For the March SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1838.00...
This market seems range bound right now, but with some certainty and at some point, it will move in earnest in one or another direction leaving most people behind...


For Wednesday, a close above 1842.60 would confirm a new main model buy signal...


The NT indicator turned considerably lower today, see directly below...it's now approaching the oversold vicinity, but clearly no buy spike yet...



Due to today's rejected buy signal, some of the VP prices and dates have changed, see in bold below...

The following are the current downside VPs for the March SP...

minor - - 1815.00

minor - - 1806.70
 

MAJOR - - 1801.00 and must close above that price on Friday, January 31st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1792.00
and must close above that price on Monday, February 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1747.00

MAJOR - - 1705.30 and must close above that price on Monday, March 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

 

 

 

 

 

 

The February Gold futures

The main model is now long February gold from 1240.40 as of Thursday, January 16th...


For the February gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1241.50...


For Wednesday, once again, a close below 1233.50 in the February gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...



The following are the current upside VPs for February gold...   

 

 

MAJOR - - 1237.70 (already reached and still active until January 28th) and must close below that price on Tuesday, January 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...



minor - - 1249.30 (already reached)
minor - - 1256.20

MAJOR - - 1262.70 and must close below that price on Wednesday, January 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1284.70  and must close below that price on Monday, February 10th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
 

 As for now, the main model remains long gold...

 

 

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

 

 

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, January 21st

The March SP futures


The main model is now short the March SP at 1834.70 as of Friday, January 17th...

For the March SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1834.10...


Yesterday's lengthy narrative on the NT indicator may have been well timed considering we had a sell signal confirmation today...


The NT indicator is basically flat today...


*   *   *   *   *   THE U.S. MARKETS ARE CLOSED ON MONDAY   *   *   *   *   *

For Tuesday, a close above 1840.50 in the March SP contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The following are the current downside VPs for the March SP...

minor - - 1815.40

minor - - 1806.70
 

MAJOR - - 1805.10 and must close above that price on Wednesday, January 29th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1792.00
and must close above that price on Monday, February 10th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1747.00

MAJOR - - 1708.70 and must close above that price on Thursday, February 27th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

 

 

 

 

 

 

The February Gold futures

The main model is now long February gold from 1240.40 as of Thursday, January 16th...


For the February gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1253.60...


For Tuesday, once again, a close below 1233.50 in the February gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...



The following are the current upside VPs for February gold...   

 

 

MAJOR - - 1237.70 (already reached and still active until January 28th) and must close below that price on Tuesday, January 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...



minor - - 1249.30 (already reached)
minor - - 1256.20

MAJOR - - 1262.70 and must close below that price on Wednesday, January 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1284.70  and must close below that price on Monday, February 10th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
 

 As for now, the main model remains long gold...

 

 

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

 

 

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, January 17th

The March SP futures

The main model is long the March SP at 1832.50 as of Wednesday, January 15th...


For the March SP futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1836.30...

Today's NT indicator has once again turned lower, but it would take a horrifically hard down day tomorrow to keep the NT indicator from giving yet another buy spike...  now, I realize this sounds inconveniently very familiar, a deja vu, but this is what I said last Friday about the NT indicator only for the market to collapse on Monday from out of nowhere...  I ask you, does history really have to repeat itself every week???  Knock on wood, I've never been superstitious, so maybe it won't...  LOL!!!

Seriously, below, I'm showing you nearly 18 months of the NT indicator with its long term overhead line and the long term rising supportive trend line... 

The NT Indicator itself measures the rising and falling tide of buyers and sellers, although there are days when the NT moves contrary to the direction of the market on any given day...  this means that on some days when the market rallies the NT indicator could still move lower, and visa versa...  the NT formula considers up and down volume, advances and declines, and the NYSE TRIN along with some additional time weighted and weighted values of these components...

The top spikes occur at the highs of the market as the market trended higher along the way, the buy spikes are the low peaks and occur at the market low points...  over the past 18 months, the lower rising supportive trend line shows that buying has been entering this market sooner and sooner without allowing for a legitimate over sold condition to occur...  this could continue now that the NT indicator is approaching that longer term rising supportive trend line, but at some point the NT indicator will become squeezed into a corner near the upper end of its range and at that point is when the selling is likely to begin in earnest...  when that day comes, and I imagine it eventually will, the main model will most definitely issue a sell confirmation price in order to take full advantage of that major market turn around...




For Friday, a close below 1834.70 in the March SP contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

 

 

The following are the current upside VPs for the March SP...

minor - - 1845.30 (already reached)

minor - - 1850.00
 

MAJOR - - 1859.60 and must close below that price on Thursday, February 6th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1865.90
and must close below that price on Thursday, January 30th to confirm a new main model sell signal...


For now, the main model remains long the SP...



 

 

 

 

 

The February Gold futures

The main model is now long February gold from 1240.40 as of Thursday, January 16th...


For the February gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1242.00...

The gold market has been rather capricious in recent days, long one day, short the next...  but, the gold market will eventually make its move and the main model will be on board, that is absolutely certain... 



For Friday, at last we have some breathing room, a close below 1233.50 in the February gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...



The following are the current upside VPs for February gold...   

 

 

MAJOR - - 1237.70 (already reached and still active) and must close below that price on Tuesday, January 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1249.30 (already reached)

minor - - 1256.20

MAJOR - - 1262.70 and must close below that price on Wednesday, January 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1284.70  and must close below that price on Monday, February 10th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
 

 As for now, the main model remains long gold...

 

 

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

 

 

 

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...