For Tuesday, March 31st

Luxury: The lust for comfort - - that stealthy thing that enters the house as a guest, and then becomes a host, and then a master.

* * * Benjamin Franklin

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

IMPORTANT NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS

On Wednesday, April 8th, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to celebrate my wife's birthday this year... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Monday and Tuesday of that week, the 6th and 7th... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday April 20th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... I will be away for 1 and 1/2 weeks, but I will double that and add three full weeks to everyone's subscription calendar as my thanks to you for allowing me this time away to celebrate my wife's birthday...

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if I didn't cancel those automatic renewal invoices, then near your subscription expiration you would receive the renewal invoice without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

The June SP Futures

The main model is now long the June SP from 2049.50 as of Friday, March 27th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 2075.10...

For Tuesday, a close below 2050.00 in the JUNE SP contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now long at about 2051.90... for tomorrow, place a sell stop to go flat at 2048.00... also, enter a new short position with a close below 2050.00 but not lower than 2044.00...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

The NT indicator gave us a solid buy spike today...

image

The LT (Long Term) indicator

Solid buy spikes in the LT graph also... the blue line actually crossed above the red line today, and the purple line is within whispering distance of that red line...

image (1)
image (2)

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The following are the current upside VPs for the June SP... as long as the due date has not yet passed, the VP is still active and can effect these markets... the VP prices are presented exactly as the formula generates them even though the SP contract itself doesn't trade at that particular decimal point... please note, I also include the VP prices that are well above the market because their deadline due dates have not yet expired...
minor - 2111.02
MAJOR - - 2143.705 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 20th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2123.44
MAJOR - - 2157.01 and must close below that price on Tuesday, May 4th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TOMORROW'S CEILING PRICE - - 2282.32
For now, the main model remains long the SP...
No more residual VP points remain...

The JUNE Gold futures

The main model is now long the June gold from 118.20 as of Monday, March 30th...

For the June gold futures, the last trade as of this writing is at 1185.20...

For Tuesday, a close above 1200.70 in the JUNE gold would confirm a new main model buy signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are flat this market,... enter a new long position with a close above 1200.70 but not above 1206.70...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

This LT graph does look seriously toppy, just look at it... sell spike in an overbought condition...

image (3)
image (4)

The following are the current downside VPs for JUNE gold...

minor - - 1159.65

minor - - 1135.83

MAJOR - - 1103.701 and must close above that price on Monday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1099.59 and must close above that price on Wednesday, April 22nd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

TOMORROW'S FLOOR PRICE - - 1012.32

For now, the main model remains short gold...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style... this strategy can be used just as easily to trade the SP and gold...

For gold, each point is one dollar...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 6 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

Announcement

Dear Subscribers,

As many of you already know, I will be traveling out of the country beginning October 1st and returning home or about October 30th...

I looked into how I could continue sending evening emails during my travels... even though I may have some Internet access on occasion, the time difference and my daily activity schedule makes it practically impossible for me to monitor these markets live and then also get out an email each evening...

So, here's what I will do... since I'm leaving on the 1st of October and will return home about the 30th of October, I will pause my emails for the entire month of October and resume again on Friday, November 1st and also extend your subscriptions for one full month to compensate for my one month's absence... as well, and in addition, I will also bring a gift back from my trip for each of you...

Here's the plan:

1) Again, for the full month of my absence, I will extend your subscriptions one full month and then resume on Friday, November 1st... this way, no subscription time would be lost... also,

Here's the gift:

2) As compensation for my month's absence, I will extend everyone's subscription for an additional two full weeks beyond your regularly scheduled subscription expiration date... this will be done for ALL subscribers regardless of the time period of your subscription, this means ALL subscriptions will be extended for the one month I'm traveling AND also two additional weeks beyond that...

Here are a few examples of how that gift extension would work:

For example, a subscription that would otherwise end on October 14th would then end on November 28th (that's one month PLUS two more weeks)...

Or, if your subscription ends on October 1st, then your subscription would end on November 15th...

Or, if your subscription expires, for example, on February 8th, 2014, then it would be extended to March 22nd, 2014, that's one month PLUS two more weeks... and so on...

BUT, you must have an active ongoing subscription with me as of October 1st... this means, those of you who have a weekly trial subscription (or monthly subscription) would also have an additional two weeks extended as a courtesy provided that you have an active subscription on October 1st...

Therefore, if you're subscription is due for renewal just before I'm scheduled to travel and you know your subscription would run into my travel time, then it would definitely be to your advantage and you would gain an additional two weeks by renewing before I leave even though the subscription period runs into my vacation time...

AN IMPORTANT NOTE: For some of you, your subscription is scheduled to expire at the end of September just prior to October 1st, so you may want to let me know in advance so I can arrange an earlier renewal invoice for you, this way you can benefit from the additional two week gift extension...

One other thing. during my absence, if your subscription is active and nearing expiration and you receive a renewal invoice during my absence, do nothing with it and just let it sit in your inbox until I return, we can deal with it then since you will have at least two additional weeks after I return to address that issue...

If you have any questions about any of this, then please just email me...

So many thanks for your generous understanding...

WELCOME TO MAIN MODEL TRADING SIGNALS

Wouldn't it be wonderful to know the answers to these two questions?

  1. When does a bull market pull back actually become a market top?
  2. When does a bear market bounce turn into a legitimate market bottom?

Main Model Signals has been able to answer those two questions which traders and investors like yourself have struggled with since the very beginning of markets.  I realize that this claim sounds rather grandiose, but take a look at the PERFORMANCE HISTORY documented in real time over the past more than three years.

For a more in depth understanding of what the Main Model itself really is, take a look at the above link called ABOUT THE MODEL.

New Service

I will post my model’s buy and sell signals in advance of the market as they appear on the horizon.  A sell signal would be triggered when the market trades below a given price and I will then enter the trade. If the market closes below that price, then the sell signal would be confirmed and I will hold that newly entered position.  As well, a buy signal would be triggered when the market trades above a given price, and if the market closes above that price, then the buy signal would be confirmed. I will keep an ongoing running tally of all profits and losses for these confirmed signals for an ongoing real time performance history.

You can review the real time performance history at the link PERFORMANCE HISTORY.