For Thursday, June 1st

"There are so many who can figure costs, and so few who can measure value."

* * * Thomas Jefferson

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.21%

For the year 2017: +2.75%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 5/24/17

A close below 2354.08 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2345.17 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now long the June SP at about 2397.80... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will always be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For tomorrow, place a sell stop to go flat at 2352.00... I know that's a mile away, but it's not likely to get hit while the momentum is upward...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2345.10 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2355.20... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long from 2397.70 as of 5/24/17 - - there are now 26 completed trades for a total gain of 542.10 SP points... we took a 9.20 point loss on the previous short position...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S SP HOBAN RULES TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close below 2408.80 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2403.80 and 2402.80, if filled place an exit stop at 2410.90... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2408.78...

The last trade at this writing is at 2412.70 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2367.10 as of Tuesday, May 16th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2434.57 and must close below that price on Monday, July 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2430.18 and must close below that price on Tuesday, June 21st to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2412.70

minor - - 2408.78

minor - - 2406.18

minor - - 2378.09

MAJOR - - 2367.19 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 31st to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2339.801

MAJOR - - 2308.11 and must close below that price on Friday, July 14th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for June below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for June below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

The MCI looks positive for tomorrow closing on its high of the day while the SPY itself closed mid range...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

While all key lines are moving higher, there's a toppy "feel" to this graph...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

No worries here, the LT momentum line keeps on going...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 5/3/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1223.80 as of Thursday, May 11th...

Today's last trade is at 1268.20...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close below 1246.10 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1246.04...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 1339.69 and must close below that price on Thursday, June 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1304.705

Lots of space between VP prices now...

SVP - - none

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1268.20

minor - - 1246.04

MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

The momentum line continues higher but the flat line looks as if it had already topped out... caution is advised here...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The LT line pushes onward, so why debate it...

The Main Model Formula
Continue reading

For Wednesday, May 31st

"If you could kick the person in the pants responsible for most of your trouble, you wouldn't sit for a month."

* * * Abraham Lincoln

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.21%

For the year 2017: +2.75%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 5/24/17

A close below 2352.44 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2344.53 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now long the June SP at about 2397.80... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will always be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For tomorrow, place a sell stop to go flat at 2352.40... I know that's a mile away, but it's not likely to get hit while the momentum is upward...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2344.50 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2354.60... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long from 2397.70 as of 5/24/17 - - there are now 26 completed trades for a total gain of 542.10 SP points... we took a 9.20 point loss on the previous short position...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S SP HOBAN RULES TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close below 2408.80 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2403.80 and 2402.80, if filled place an exit stop at 2410.90... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2408.78...

The last trade at this writing is at 2411.00 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2367.10 as of Tuesday, May 16th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2434.57 and must close below that price on Monday, July 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2430.18 and must close below that price on Tuesday, June 21st to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2411.00

minor - - 2408.78

minor - - 2406.18

minor - - 2378.09

MAJOR - - 2367.19 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 31st to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

Slow drifting sideways today, nothing to report...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

The flat line bend downward today, this could become a problem, let's keep a watch on this market for tomorrow...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum line developed a slight bend in it today, this could be a problem, we also need to watch this one for tomorrow...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 5/3/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1223.80 as of Thursday, May 11th...

Today's last trade is at 1261.90...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close below 1246.10 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1246.04...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79

SVP - - none

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1261.90

minor - - 1246.04

MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

We can see clearly that the flat line has topped out for now and the anti price is now moving higher rapidly... watch this market for possibly further price erosion...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The LT momentum line still looks bullish...

The Main Model Formula
Continue reading

For Tuesday, May 30th

"If you could kick the person in the pants responsible for most of your trouble, you wouldn't sit for a month."

* * * Abraham Lincoln

ALL U.S. MARKETS WILL BE CLOSED ON MONDAY TO OBSERVE MEMORIAL DAY AND WILL OPEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING...

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.31%

For the year 2017: +2.85%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 5/24/17

A close below 2350.97 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2344.02 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now long the June SP at about 2397.80... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will always be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For tomorrow, place a sell stop to go flat at 2348.90... I know that's a mile away, but it's not likely to get hit while the momentum is upward...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2344.00 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2354.10... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long from 2397.70 as of 5/24/17 - - there are now 26 completed trades for a total gain of 542.10 SP points... we took a 9.20 point loss on the previous short position...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S SP HOBAN RULES TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close below 2408.80 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2403.80 and 2402.80, if filled place an exit stop at 2410.90... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2408.78...

The last trade at this writing is at 2414.00 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2367.10 as of Tuesday, May 16th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2434.57 and must close below that price on Monday, July 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2430.18 and must close below that price on Tuesday, June 21st to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2414.00

minor - - 2408.78

minor - - 2406.18

minor - - 2378.09

MAJOR - - 2367.19 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 31st to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

A sideways move today in the MCI, nothing meaningful to mention here... stay long this market for now...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

All key lines continue higher, hold all long positions for now...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum is higher, this is bullish...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 5/3/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1223.80 as of Thursday, May 11th...

Today's last trade is at 1266.80...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close below 1246.10 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1246.04...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79

SVP - - none

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1266.80

minor - - 1246.04

MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

Yes, Alice, it still looks toppy, but the momentum line is moving higher and the market is showing more strength than it has in recent weeks/months...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

Looking impressively bullish at the moment...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Friday, May 26th

"If you could kick the person in the pants responsible for most of your trouble, you wouldn't sit for a month."

* * * Abraham Lincoln

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.31%

For the year 2017: +2.85%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 5/24/17

A close below 2348.49 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close below 2343.37 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now long the June SP at about 2397.80... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will always be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For tomorrow, place a sell stop to go flat at 2348.40... I know that's a mile away, but it's not likely to get hit while the momentum is upward...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2343.30 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2353.40... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long from 2397.70 as of 5/24/17 - - there are now 26 completed trades for a total gain of 542.10 SP points... we took a 9.20 point loss on the previous short position...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S SP HOBAN RULES TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 2408.80 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2403.80 and 2402.80, if filled place an exit stop at 2410.90... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2408.78...

The last trade at this writing is at 2413.00 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2367.10 as of Tuesday, May 16th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2434.57 and must close below that price on Monday, July 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2430.18 and must close below that price on Tuesday, June 21st to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2413.00

minor - - 2408.78

minor - - 2406.18

minor - - 2378.09

MAJOR - - 2367.19 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 31st to confirm a new main model sell signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

The MCI is moving higher along with the price, looking good...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

All key lines are moving higher, this is a picture of good health with plenty of room to continue...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

Even the LT momentum line is moving higher, could you ask for anything more???

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 5/3/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1223.80 as of Thursday, May 11th...

Today's last trade is at 1255.70...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 1246.10 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1246.04...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79

SVP - - none

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1255.70

minor - - 1246.04

MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

This flat line graph continues to look a bit toppy and yet the momentum line inches higher... expect some backing and filling while the up trend remains intact...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The LT momentum line also move higher, so far so good with this market... a new record for holding a long position could be set any day now!!! LOL!!!

The Main Model Formula
Continue reading

For Thursday, May 25th

"If you could kick the person in the pants responsible for most of your trouble, you wouldn't sit for a month."

* * * Abraham Lincoln

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.31%

For the year 2017: +2.85%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 5/24/17

A close below 2348.206 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

A close above 2343.32 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now long the June SP at about 2397.80... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will always be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For tomorrow, place a sell stop to go flat at 2346.20... I know that's a mile away, but it's not likely to get hit while the momentum is upward...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the June at 2343.30 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2353.40... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Flat from 2392.50 as of 5/23/17 - - there are now 26 completed trades for a total gain of 542.10 SP points... we took a 9.20 point loss on the previous short position...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close below 2378.10 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2373.10 and 2372.10, if filled place an exit stop at 2380.10... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2378.09...

The last trade at this writing is at 2401.70 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2367.10 as of Tuesday, May 16th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2434.57 and must close below that price on Monday, July 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2430.18 and must close below that price on Tuesday, June 21st to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2408.78
minor - - 2406.18

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2401.70
minor - - 2378.09

MAJOR - - 2367.19 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 31st to confirm a new main model sell signal...
SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

Yesterday, the MCI moved higher while the market went sideways, this suggested a rally for today which did occur... today, the market moved higher while the MCI is moved sideways... I see no problem with remaining long this market for now...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

The momentum line continues turning higher, the flat line looks positive, and the market price is above the anti price... so far, so good...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum line is also moving higher, this is bullish...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 5/3/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1223.80 as of Thursday, May 11th...

Today's last trade is at 1258.10...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close below 1246.10 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1246.04...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1258.10
minor - - 1246.04
MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...
This market looks a bit toppy, but all key likes continue higher... stay long this market...

THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The momentum line continues higher, bullish...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Wednesday, May 24th

“Why do dogs always race to the door when the doorbell rings? I mean, it’s hardly ever for them?

* * * Harry Hil

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.31%

For the year 2017: +2.85%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL AS OF 5/23/17

A close above 2397.70 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 2346.61 would turn the BTIT to down...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now flat the June SP at about 2394.60 for a loss on the short position... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will always be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For tomorrow, place a buy stop to go long at 2397.70...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a buy stop to go long the June at 2397.70 and if filled place a sell stop to go flat at 2387.60... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Flat from 2392.50 as of 5/23/17 - - there are now 26 completed trades for a total gain of 542.10 SP points... we took a 9.20 point loss on the previous short position...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close below 2378.10 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2373.10 and 2372.10, if filled place an exit stop at 2380.10... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2378.09...

The last trade at this writing is at 2398.00 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2367.10 as of Tuesday, May 16th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2434.57 and must close below that price on Monday, July 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2430.18 and must close below that price on Tuesday, June 21st to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2408.78
minor - - 2406.18

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2398.00
minor - - 2378.09
minor - - 2374.89
MAJOR - - 2367.19 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 31st to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2360.34 and must close above that price on Monday, May 29th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
SVP - - none

minor - - 2317.48

MAJOR - - 2279.51 and must close above that price on Friday, June 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

While the market price only moved higher minimally, the MCI moved higher significantly... this is typically bullish for tomorrow... we can anticipate the BTIT signal to be triggered and confirmed...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

The most significant event today is that the market price closed above the anti price... this is construed as bullish...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The LT momentum line has now clearly turned upward... very positive news for being long this market...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 5/3/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1223.80 as of Thursday, May 11th...

Today's last trade is at 1251.30...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close below 1246.10 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1246.04...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1251.30
minor - - 1246.04
MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...
Even though the momentum line continues higher, the flat line itself is now beginning to appear seriously toppy, at least for a pull back of some proportion... caution here is strongly advised...

THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The LT momentum line continues higher, but notice how it now has a bend in it... this market is losing its upside momentum...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Tuesday, May 23rd

“Why do dogs always race to the door when the doorbell rings? I mean, it’s hardly ever for them?

* * * Harry Hil

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.30%

For the year 2017: +2.84%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
A REMINDER: DON'T FORGET ABOUT THE EQ SPREAD, THE RISK IS LIMITED AND THE GAINS ARE UNLIMITED... ASK ME ABOUT IT IF YOU'RE INTERESTED...

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN AS OF 5/17/17

A close above 2399.67 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 2392.59 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now short the June SP at about 2383.20... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will always be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For tomorrow, place a buy stop to go flat at 2394.60...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a buy stop to go long the June at 2299.70 and if filled place a sell stop to go flat at 2389.60... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Short from 2383.30 as of 5/17/17 - - there are now 25 completed trades for a total gain of 551.30 SP points... we took a 14.10 point loss on the previous long position...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close below 2378.10 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now short this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2373.10 and 2372.10, if filled place an exit stop at 2380.10... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2378.09...

The last trade at this writing is at 2392.70 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2367.10 as of Tuesday, May 16th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

minor - - none
MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2392.70
minor - - 2378.09
minor - - 2374.89
MAJOR - - 2367.19 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 31st to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2360.34 and must close above that price on Monday, May 29th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
SVP - - none

minor - - 2317.48

MAJOR - - 2279.51 and must close above that price on Friday, June 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

So far, looking constructive...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

Notice the market price moving higher while the anti price is moving lower, also the flat line price is moving higher and shows a bottom type spike which could be construed as bullish... meanwhile, the momentum line continues lower, a few more higher closes could change that...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

Wow, check this out!!! The LT momentum line has turned upward as of today... another solid rally and this market could be looking at new all time highs, it takes a lot to turn the LT momentum line around...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 5/3/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1223.80 as of Thursday, May 11th...

Today's last trade is at 1260.40...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Tuesday, a close below 1246.10 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1246.04...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1260.40
minor - - 1246.04
MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

While this flat line graph looks just a bit toppy, it still looks overall bullish with plenty of room to rally... so, expect a possible pull back at this point since the flat line itself is way up there at previous flat line highs, but I would anticipate buying to support any pull back here...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

Momentum continues higher...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Monday, May 22nd

"Never get so busy making a living that you forget to make a life."

* * * Anonymous

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.30%

For the year 2017: +2.84%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
A REMINDER: DON'T FORGET ABOUT THE EQ SPREAD, THE RISK IS LIMITED AND THE GAINS ARE UNLIMITED... ASK ME ABOUT IT IF YOU'RE INTERESTED...

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN AS OF 5/17/17

A close above 2401.29 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 2395.85 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now short the June SP at about 2383.20... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will always be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For tomorrow, place a buy stop to go flat at 2397.90...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a buy stop to go long the June at 2401.30 and if filled place a sell stop to go flat at 2391.20... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Short from 2383.30 as of 5/17/17 - - there are now 25 completed trades for a total gain of 551.30 SP points... we took a 14.10 point loss on the previous long position...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 2378.10 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now short this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2373.10 and 2372.10, if filled place an exit stop at 2380.10... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2378.09...

The last trade at this writing is at 2381.70 in the June...

The main model is now long the June SP from 2367.10 as of Tuesday, May 16th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

minor - - none
MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2381.70
minor - - 2378.09
minor - - 2374.89
MAJOR - - 2367.19 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 31st to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2360.34 and must close above that price on Monday, May 29th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
SVP - - none

minor - - 2317.48

MAJOR - - 2279.51 and must close above that price on Friday, June 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

The MCI shows that confidence is returning to this market...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

While the momentum is still moving lower, we can see the flat line itself spiking upward along with the market price...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

We can see the momentum line begin to turn sideways...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 5/3/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1223.80 as of Thursday, May 11th...

Today's last trade is at 1255.20...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Monday, a close below 1246.10 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1246.04...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1255.20
minor - - 1246.04
MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

Nice upward momentum continues...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

Momentum continues higher...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Friday, May 19th

"Never get so busy making a living that you forget to make a life."

* * * Anonymous

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.30%

For the year 2017: +2.84%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN AS OF 5/17/17

A close above 2402.53 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 2398.57 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now short the June SP at about 2383.20... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will always be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For tomorrow, place a buy stop to go flat at 2400.60...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a buy stop to go long the June at 2402.60 and if filled place a sell stop to go flat at 2392.50... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Short from 2383.30 as of 5/17/17 - - there are now 25 completed trades for a total gain of 551.30 SP points... we took a 14.10 point loss on the previous long position...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close above 2367.10 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now short this market... for tomorrow, enter a long position with a close between 2372.10 and 2373.10, if filled place an exit stop at 2365.10... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A major VP at 2367.19...

The last trade at this writing is at 2362.50 in the June...

The main model is now short the June SP from 2400.70 as of Tuesday, May 16th...

Today, this market traded up and back through several VP prices and finished the day short...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

minor - - none
MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2378.09
minor - - 2374.89
MAJOR - - 2367.19 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 31st to confirm a new main model sell signal...
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2362.50
MAJOR - - 2360.34 and must close above that price on Monday, May 29th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
SVP - - none

minor - - 2317.48

MAJOR - - 2279.51 and must close above that price on Friday, June 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

While some confidence returned to this market, the price itself went nowhere...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

The flat line shows that the market price and the anti price are very far apart and that the market may well go sideways or higher from here... very clearly, the momentum line shows a market with a solid downward momentum... this is overall bearish for now...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The longer term momentum line is clearly heading lower...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 5/3/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1223.80 as of Thursday, May 11th...

Today's last trade is at 1248.40...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Friday, a close below 1246.10 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1246.04...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1248.40
minor - - 1246.04
MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

We can see a topping pattern in the flat line itself while the momentum line continues higher... this suggests that this market's trend is still higher, but is a bit overbought for now....


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The momentum for this market is still higher...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Thursday, May 18th

The surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that it has never tried to contact us.

* * * Bill Watterson

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.30%

For the year 2017: +2.84%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN AS OF 5/17/17

A close above 2403.44 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 2400.83 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you were stopped out of your long position for a loss and are now short the June SP at about 2383.20... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will always be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For tomorrow, place a buy stop to go flat at 2402.90...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a buy stop to go long the June at 2403.50 and if filled place a sell stop to go flat at 2393.40... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Short from 2383.30 as of 5/17/17 - - there are now 25 completed trades for a total gain of 551.30 SP points... we took a 14.10 point loss on the previous long position...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S VP SP TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close above 2360.30 in the JUNE contract would confirm a new main model buy signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2365.30 and 2366.30, if filled place an exit stop at 2358.30... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A major VP at 2400.604...

The last trade at this writing is at 2397.70 in the June...

The main model is now short the June SP from 2400.70 as of Tuesday, May 16th...

NOTICE: The major VP at 2400.604 has been listed in the VP price map for several weeks, the deadline date for that major VP was scheduled for Wednesday, May 17th... notice how the market price and deadline due date intersected... this happens very frequently, this is not a random event... the VP prices and their scheduled due dates are anything but random...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:
1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP JUNE VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2412.74 and must close below that price on Thursday, May 25th to confirm a new main model sell signal...
minor - - 2403.36
MAJOR - - 2400.604 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 17th to confirm a new main model sell signal... yes, this VP now expired as of today and right on schedule with a short position at nearly the top tick of the market...

minor - - 2378.09
minor - - 2374.89
MAJOR - - 2367.19 and must close below that price on Wednesday, May 31st to confirm a new main model sell signal...
MAJOR - - 2360.34 and must close above that price on Monday, May 29th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2357.00
SVP - - none

minor - - 2317.48

MAJOR - - 2279.51 and must close above that price on Friday, June 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for May below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for May below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI will replace the NT Indicator which is not as subtle or as sophisticated as the MCI... please let me know your thoughts on the MCI or if I should reinstate the NT Indicator instead...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

The MCI shows a significant loss of market confidence after today's decline... those of you who prefer buying dips need to be careful... the main model remains short this market on a VP signal and on a BTIT signal...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

Please notice today that the flat line indicator has been flashing a sell for several days as the market price has been closing below the anti price and the momentum line is moving downward... today's flat line picture shows the same bearish pattern...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

We can now see the LT momentum line very clearly is moving lower as of today...

The JUNE Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN as of 5/3/17

A close above 1297.04 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close above 1272.41 would turn the BTIT to neutral...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1223.80 as of Thursday, May 11th...

Today's last trade is at 1259.70...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close below 1246.10 in the June Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1246.04...

JUNE GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - none and must close below that price on none to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1274.79
SVP - - none
TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1259.70
minor - - 1246.04
MAJOR - - 1223.81 and must close above that price on Thursday, May 18th to confirm a new main model buy signal... the main model is already long this market

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

This is a bullish flat line graph, all key lines are moving higher... the flat line itself may be a bit over done right now, but the momentum is clearly higher from here...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The momentum line is covered over today by the price line, but the momentum line is now moving higher as of today... it looks like today was the day these markets have made a more significant turn, but we'll see over the next few days...

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