For Wednesday, September 30th

"One way to end up with $1 million with these markets is to start with $2 million."

* * * Ralph Seger

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS can be found at the bottom of every email briefing for your easy quick reference and convenience, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

NOTICE TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS
On Thursday, October 1st, I will again be taking 10 days away from the markets to clear the cobwebs and recharge the batteries... evening briefings will be delivered to you on Wednesday evening of that week... and then, the briefings will resume again on Monday, October 12th... this is a ten day break away from the markets... as they say, "all work and no play makes Johnny a dull boy"...

In return for your allowing me to take the time away from these markets, I will add additional vacation bonus time to everyone's subscription to compensate for my time away, this will be my thanks to your for your kindness and permission... for the 10 days I'm away, your subscription clock will stop and will resume again on Thursday, October 15th, this is 4 days after I return... this will compensate for the time I'm away plus give you nearly another week of additional subscription time as a bonus...

Important Note:

For subscribers who have automatic renewal invoices sent to you, I will cancel those automatic invoices, so if you see a renewal invoiced being cancelled, it's only me making sure you receive the added vacation bonus time to your subscription... if those automatic renewal invoices we not canceled, then you would receive the renewal invoice prematurely and without the benefit of any added vacation bonus time, so this that has to be done manually by me...

If anyone would like to learn the main model system on a one time cost lifetime leasing basis, just ask me about it... this way, while I'm away, you could calculate the VP points and buy and sell confirmation prices on your own...

If you have any questions regarding this, please just ask me...

Many thanks...

PLEASE READ:

The VP Price Map will replace the mid day updates, or most of them... this way, you'll never have to wonder if you missed any updates... the VP map tells you everything you need to know and you already know the two key rules for using the VP points to position yourself... this will only make you a much more savvy trader...

The December SP Futures

IMPORTANT NOTE:

USE ONLY THE LARGE SP CONTRACT FOR ALL SIGNALS, THE MINI CONTRACT WILL GIVE YOU FALSE SIGNALS... AND THEN, ONCE A SIGNAL IS TRIGGERED (AND CONFIRMED), THEN YOU CAN TRADE ANY OTHER MARKET FROM THAT SIGNAL...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: DOWN since 9/28/15

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction...

A close above 2100.34 would turn the BTIT from neutral to up...

A close above 2011.00 would turn the BTIT from down to neutral...

The BTIT turned down today at 1892.40, so the BTIT is now short from 1892.40

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The BTIT trading strategy is designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close monitoring...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT current trade position: Now short from 1892.40 as of 9/28/15... 1 previous trade completed, a total gain of 99.90 SP points...

The main model is now short the December SP from 1930.90 as of Friday, September 25th...

Today, the market traded down through several VP points and closed well below the major VP of 1883.49...

It's always wise to hold only a light position in order to tolerate the wild price action of this market...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1875.00 for December...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close above 1871.10 in the December contract would confirm a new main model buy signal...

Yes, the market closed today above this price, so the buy signal will be triggered and activated if the market opens this evening above this price...

Please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now currently flat... go long with a close above 1871.10 but not above 1877.10...

Rationale: The major VP at 1871.11, this is a new VP now emerged....

Are you having difficulty finding an entry point for a new signal??? Consider the Hoban Rule, even a child could follow the simple rules... I use it myself...

The Hoban Rule will not catch all trades, but will also not incur any entry whips on the entry of any new main model signals... this reliable and profitable strategy is presented here with each briefing only as a possible strategy option, one can use any trading strategy or any combination of strategies with the Hoban Rule that fits one's personal trading disposition... please review some of the other trading strategies in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... the Hoban Rule can be used with any other additional trading strategies that fit your disposition and comfort level...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 35 trades for a net gain of 243.30 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future success, but this particular trading strategy has an impressive history and is well worth considering if you have difficulty taking the best advantage of the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

The NT (Near Term) indicator (the red line)

Good buy spike in the NT indicator today...

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The LT (Long Term) indicator

Buy spikes in deeply oversold territory... it looks like a rally may begin here...

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If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map, this VP map will replace the need for mid day updates which many of you have not been able to see or receive during your busy mid day schedule... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below... this would also eliminate the risk of my not sending out any mid day updates due to power failures, running errands, or any other possible reason... this way, since you already know the very simple rules, you would become a more efficient trader without depending on mid day correspondence which is always subject to loss or nondelivery...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 2043.99 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2039.69 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 18th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2016.42 and must close below that price on Wednesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2001.32

minor - - 1999.42

minor - - 1983.15

minor - - 1930.86
minor - - 1920.68
MAJOR - - 1897.409 and must close above that price on Friday, November 13th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1894.72
minor - - 1891.52
minor - - 1883.68
MAJOR - - 1883.49 and must close above that price on Tuesday, November 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...
TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1875.00
MAJOR - - 1871.11 and must close above that price on Thursday, November 5th to confirm a new main model buy signal... KEY VP
MAJOR - - 1845.15 and must close above that price on Tuesday, December 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...
MAJOR - - 1832.56 and must close above that price on Thursday, December 3rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1822.04
minor - - 1818.98
MAJOR - - 1741.71 and must close above that price on Monday, January 11th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The DECEMBER Gold futures
BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP since 9/18/15
A close below 1122.70 would turn the BTIT from up to neutral...
A close below 1081.40 would turn the BTIT from neutral to down...
The main model is now long the December gold from 1118.40 as of Thursday, September 17th...

The last trade as of this writing is at 1126.90...

TOMORROW'S TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close below 1126.90 in the December Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below...

The Hoban Rule was expressly designed for the SP market and no other market at this time...

The LT (Long Term) Indicator

Yesterday, the purple line crossed below the red line, today the blue line did the same... and also today, the red line turned downward... if this market doesn't stage a respectable rally tomorrow, then we may be looking at yet another hard down move for gold...

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THE VP PRICE MAP

The following is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

The Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any VP price below the market and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1269.09 and must close below that price on Monday, September 28th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1241.16 and must close below that price on Tuesday, September 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1218.51

minor - - 1198.69 TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE

minor - - 1198.69 TWO MINOR VP WITH THE EXACT SAME PRICE

TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE - - 1126.90

minor - - 1067.04

MAJOR - - 1023.99 and must close above that price on Monday, October 12th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 530.11 (there is no typo) and must above that price on Thursday, January 14th 2021 (again, no typo) to confirm a new main model buy signal... yes, very odd...

This major VP is incredibly low and is also very far out in time, but this is what the main model is telling me for gold, so I'm providing the information...

BRIEF TUTORIAL OF MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS:

The SP confirmation close ALWAYS refers to the large contract 4:15 pm futures closing price... also, use only the large contract for all official main model signals, the mini contract will give you false signals...

The Confirmation Price

The confirmation price is a specific market price beyond which the market must close in order to confirm a new main model buy or sell signal... the confirmation price is not a top or bottom picker, it is not designed to get you into a new position right at, or near, the top or bottom tick... but rather, it tells you that the trend has more than likely changed direction with a high degree of reliability... as has been demonstrated with better than a 98% reliability, the confirmation price confirms that the market trend has legitimately changed direction and that a new trend has just begun... very often, a buy confirmation price may seem so far above the market that taking a new long position at that high level seems risky... the same can be said for taking a new short position at a sell confirmation price... but factually, these price points are the most ideal place to enter a new position since these confirmation prices occur where most people are likely to take new erroneous positions in the trend that is just ending... this is why the market moves so explosively after the price is confirmed, e.g., the new short holders are scrambling to cover or the new dip buyers are selling out rapidly...

The NT Indicator

The NT indicator is a near term (NT) indicator and is included in the evening briefings for the benefit of those who make counter trend trades... the NT buy and sell spikes are not main model buy and sell signals, these spikes are only very near term, although they could always develop into something more significant over the next few days... using a weather analogy, the buy/sell spikes are much like a developing low pressure area or a tropical wave, they do not indicate a fully blown hurricane, although it could eventually develop... if a fully blown hurricane actually does develop, then the main model signal itself would address that market action...

How To Read The NT Indicator

The best and safest time to take an NT signal is when the market has already trended for some time and is now approaching a VP price, especially a major VP, then the NT spike would indicate that the trend is likely to reverse since the market is already vulnerable at a VP price, the NT spike provides greater certainty for that counter trend trade...

The VP Price

The VP, or Vertical Price, is NOT a target, the market is not required or expected to reach any VP price... however, if reached, the VP price represents where the buying/selling has stretched to its maximum exhaustion point, at least temporarily, and a change in trend is very likely... VP prices behave like magnets, they attract the market price, and when the price touches the VP point, then the polarity reverses and repels price... all this market ever does is ping pong between VP prices...

The main model formula is specifically designed to determine precisely and to the exact market price where the market is most likely to reach complete buying and/or selling exhaustion, there is no guessing about it. This is why the market almost always backs away from those VP points after reaching them, at least for 10 to 12 points before resuming the trend... also, at those VP points, the market is the most vulnerable to a legitimate trend change. Therefore, when the market trades through those VP points and then backs away and closes on the other side of it again, there is a very high likelihood of a trend reversal at that time... these VP point are like magnets, they pull and attract the price until the VP is reached, and then upon reaching the VP it then reverses polarity and repels price... at that point, the market can back away and confirm a new trend signal or return to the VP and resume the original trend... this is where the main model determines the buy and sell confirmation prices...

The Floor/Ceiling Price

The floor price is always there in a down trend, the ceiling price is always there in an up trend... these specific prices are rarely mentioned because the market rarely reaches them... these are not VP prices but can be treated the same as a VP price except floor and ceiling prices change every day while the VP price does not... a close beyond the floor/ceiling price should be considered a second buy or sell confirmation signal...

How To Read The VP Price

If the market touches and then moves away from the VP very quickly and doesn't return, then this typically indicates a market reversal, but if the market moves away from the VP and then returns within a day or two, maybe sooner, then the move is not over and the market is likely to continue in its current trend... repeated visits to a VP suggests the move is not yet over...

A Suggestion On How To Enter A Position On A New Main Model Signal

One way to enter a new signal trade is to take only 1/3 position only after the market trades through the confirmation price by a few points... after that initial position is taken, let the market do what it does all day... then, late in the day, if the market is still confirming the signal, then add the second 1/3 position... and then, on the close take the final 1/3 position... your average entry price will be above/below the confirmation price but the whips will be significantly reduced... this is a method I use for myself very often...

Another way to enter a new position is to wait for the actual confirmation on the close, and then take the new position...

THE HOBAN RULE

The Hoban Rule is an exclusive proprietary trading strategy that uses the main model signals to trade the SP market only... using this strategy eliminates all whips and is recommended to be used by those who are not market savvy and/or nimble enough to trade free style...

To take the trade, these two prerequisite criteria must be met:

1) The closing price on confirmation day must be within 6 points of the confirmation price, and

2) The confirmation price for the next signal must be more than 5 points from the closing price of that day...

3) Also, you may enter the trade anytime after the signal is confirmed if the market comes back to within 5 points of the original signal confirmation price...

Since you don't yet know the confirmation price for the next signal at that moment, you can either take the trade if the closing price meets the first criteria, or wait for the evening briefing for that information... if you took the trade on the first criteria and the evening briefing reverse confirmation price does not satisfy the second criteria, then simply close out that trade... or, if you did not take the trade and the evening briefing satisfies the second criteria as well, then take the trade in the evening session or in the after hours market if you're trading a market ETF... or you can simply take the trade the following morning...

However, if the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price, then do not take the trade at that time, just stay flat...

In order to take the trade when the closing price is 6 points or more from the confirmation price:

1) Place a limit order to enter the trade when/if the market moves within 5 points of the confirmation price...

To exit the trade:

1) Place an exit stop 2 points beyond the next buy/sell confirmation price... if filled, then stay flat and wait for the next new signal to be confirmed...

2) If the next new signal is confirmed, then begin again with step 1 using the two entry criteria to begin the next new trade position...

3) If the new signal is not confirmed, simply stay flat and wait for the next newly confirmed signal to begin the next trade at step 1, or simply re-enter the original position provided that the closing price that day is within 6 points of the original confirmation price and the reverse confirmation price is at least 5 points above that day's closing price...

4) Very often, you may find the second criteria is not met since the reverse confirmation price is less than 5 points above the closing price... but, on some occasions, a day or two later, the reverse confirmation price could actually move away from the market and would therefore meet the second criteria and subsequently satisfy both prerequisite criteria allowing for an entry provided that day's closing price is still no more than 6 points from the original main model confirmation price...

Applying The Hoban Rule for your trade positions based on the buy/sell confirmation prices as described above, you will find it easy to follow and with less stress than trying to catch the market while not knowing where it will actually close... and, also, all intraday entry whips are completely eliminated...

The Vertical Price Equilibrium Spread

This spread takes advantage of the unique relationship between related markets... this spread can be entered at any time, however to optimize and maximize the benefits of this spread, it should be entered at or near the major VP points... this spread generates profits regardless of market direction... if you would like a full explanation on how to benefit from this spread, then please ask me about it...

Rejected Buy/Sell Signals

Rejected buy and/or sell signals are typically followed by a sharp market move in the opposite direction the following day, this occurs as a general rule... a rejected sell signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp rally... as well, a rejected buy signal is typically followed the next day by a sharp decline... however, if the sharp rally/decline does not occur, then you can expect to see the market make another attempt at that buy/sell signal...

The Long Term (LT) Indicator

The long term (LT) indicator is a myriad of indicators that give you an X-ray view of the market internals and trend...

The green line = the closing price for the specific market

The red line = the confirmation line, the more dominant trend

The purple line = the early warning line

The blue line = the imminent warning line

The purple and blue lines crossing the red line gives you early and imminent warning of a possible change in trend direction...

If you have a particular stock, ETF, index, or any trading market instrument that you would like to see through the analysis of the LT graph, then just let me know, just send me the market symbol, I can create an LT graph for that selection and keep it on file with me to update for you later on...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

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