For Thursday, August 22nd

The September SP Futures

The main model is currently short the SP as of August 9th at 1689.50...

With a closing price today at 1636.70, we're looking pretty smart right now...

For Thursday, a close above 1654.20 would confirm a new main model buy signal...

You may remember the most recent sell spike a few days ago which occurred after the market had already decline... well, now we know what that spike was telling us... see the NT indicator as of today's close... frankly, if this market doesn't turn higher soon, then I suspect we could see an accelerated and dramatic decline from here...

The following is the current downside VP list for the SP:

minor - - 1667.30 (already reached)

minor - - 1662.20 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1642.50 (already reached) and must close above that price on Friday, August 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1601.80

MAJOR - - 1559.10 and must close above that price on Monday, September 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1541.70

MAJOR - - 1476.40 and must close above that price on Wednesday, October 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

The December Gold futures

The the main model is currently long gold as of August 8th at 1306.40...

For Thursday, a close below 1365.70 (again, same price as yesterday) in the December gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The following are the current upside VPs for December gold:

minor - - 1355.40

MAJOR - - 1356.40 (already reached) and must close below that price on Tuesday, September 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1387.80 and must close below that price on Monday, September 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1414.00

minor - - 1441.90

MAJOR - - 1502.20 and must close below that price on Friday, November 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1544.90 and must close below that price on Monday, December 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

As for now, the main model remains long gold...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Wednesday, August 21st

The September SP Futures

The main model is currently short the SP as of August 9th at 1689.50...

For Wednesday, a close above 1666.90 would confirm a new main model buy signal...

Today, the NT indicator continued lower today even as the market worked higher, and is beginning to enter oversold territory...

Below is a daily chart of the SP futures... with traditional analysis, you can se how the market appears to have returned to test the breakout level right at the main model's major downside VP of 1642.50... if the rally continues tomorrow, then we may see a buy signal some time later this week... a close on Friday above 1642.50 would confirm a main model buy signal, so all this market has to do is tread water for a few more days... the question is can it do it? If this market again revisits the 1642.50 VP, then we could expect to see another leg lower from there...

The following is the current downside VP list for the SP:

minor - - 1667.30 (already reached)

minor - - 1662.20 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1642.50 (already reached) and must close above that price on Friday, August 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1601.80

MAJOR - - 1559.10 and must close above that price on Monday, September 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1541.70

MAJOR - - 1476.40 and must close above that price on Wednesday, October 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

The December Gold futures

The the main model is currently long gold as of August 8th at 1306.40...

For Wednesday, a close below 1365.70 (same price as yesterday) in the December gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The following are the current upside VPs for December gold:

minor - - 1355.40

MAJOR - - 1356.40 (already reached) and must close below that price on Tuesday, September 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1387.80 and must close below that price on Monday, September 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1414.00

minor - - 1441.90

MAJOR - - 1502.20 and must close below that price on Friday, November 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1544.90 and must close below that price on Monday, December 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

As for now, the main model remains long gold...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Tuesday, August 20th

The September SP Futures

The main model is currently short the SP as of August 9th at 1689.50...

For Tuesday, a close above 1674.50 would confirm a new main model buy signal...

Today, the NT indicator has given a sell spike... the unusual thing about this particular sell spike is that it occurs AFTER an already deep decline... there's no telling what this suggests...

Also, today's market reached the major VP at 1643.20, the low of the day was 1643.00, so we could see a possible 10 SP point bounce here, or maybe even a turn around...

The following is the current downside VP list for the SP:

minor - - 1667.30 (already reached)

minor - - 1662.20 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1653.20 (already reached) and must close above that price on Friday, August 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1643.20 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1601.80

MAJOR - - 1559.10 and must close above that price on Monday, September 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...
minor - - 1541.70
MAJOR - - 1476.40 and must close above that price on Wednesday, October 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

The December Gold futures
The the main model is currently long gold as of August 8th at 1306.40...

For Tuesday, a close below 1365.70 in the December gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...
The following are the current upside VPs for December gold:

minor - - 1355.40

MAJOR - - 1356.40 (already reached) and must close below that price on Tuesday, September 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1387.80 and must close below that price on Monday, September 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1414.00

minor - - 1441.90

MAJOR - - 1502.20 and must close below that price on Friday, November 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1544.90 and must close below that price on Monday, December 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

As for now, the main model remains long gold...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Friday, August 16th

The September SP Futures

The main model is currently short the SP as of August 9th at 1689.50...

It was nice to be short going into today's market action...

For Friday, a close above 1689.20 would confirm a new main model buy signal...

Also, for Friday, a close below 1681.70 would confirm a SECOND main model sell signal...

The NT Indicator actually gave a buy spike on today's close, so expect a rally very possibly for tomorrow, however the main trend is clearly lower right now... remember yesterday, how the market didn't rally on the modest NT buy spike? As mentioned in last night's email, that failure to rally suggested internal weakness... today clearly illustrated that internal weakness...

The following is the current downside VP list for the SP:

minor - - 1667.30 (already reached)

minor - - 1662.20 (already reached)

MAJOR - - 1653.20 and must close above that price on Friday, August 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1643.20 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1601.80

MAJOR - - 1559.10 and must close above that price on Monday, September 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1541.70

MAJOR - - 1476.40 and must close above that price on Wednesday, October 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

The December Gold futures

The the main model is currently long gold as of August 8th at 1306.40...

It was nice to be long going into today's market action...

For Friday, a close below 1315.20 in the December gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The following are the current upside VPs for December gold: (a new major VP was formed today, see below in bold)

minor - - 1355.40

MAJOR - - 1356.40 (already reached) and must close below that price on Tuesday, September 3rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1387.80 and must close below that price on Monday, September 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1414.00

minor - - 1441.90

MAJOR - - 1502.20 and must close below that price on Friday, November 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1544.90 and must close below that price on Monday, December 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

As for now, the main model remains long gold...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...

For Thursday, August 15th

The September SP Futures

The main model is currently short the SP as of August 9th at 1689.50...

For Thursday, a close above 1689.10 would confirm a new main model buy signal...

The NT Indicator developed and maintained a modest sell spike all day today, but nothing pronounced...

The following is the current downside VP list for the SP:

minor - - 1667.30

minor - - 1662.20

MAJOR - - 1653.20 and must close above that price on Friday, August 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

MAJOR - - 1643.20 and must close above that price on Wednesday, August 21st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1601.80

MAJOR - - 1559.10 and must close above that price on Monday, September 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 1541.70

MAJOR - - 1476.40 and must close above that price on Wednesday, October 23rd to confirm a new main model buy signal...

For now, the main model remains short the SP...

FROM THE EMAIL SUGGESTION BOX:

QUESTION:

What do I do on a day like today when the main model is short, then we get a rejected buy signal, and the NT Indicator is on a modest buy spike?

ANSWER:

What I do typically, once the market moves ABOVE the confirmation price by a point or so, I enter 1/3 of my long position... then, I wait and do nothing else... if the market is still above the confirmation price late afternoon, then I add another 1/3 position no matter where the market is as long as it's still above the confirmation price... then, I add the final 1/3 on the close as it confirms...

Now, instead, if the market begins to sell off as it did today, the 1/3 position is not a big hit, so I can hold it and let the market trade up and back throughout the day... but, if the market begins to sell off, say 4 or 5 SP points as it did today, then I just dump the 1/3 long and reinstate 1/3 or 1/2 the short position... I almost always leave room to add even if I don't add at all... keeping a light position with some powder dry gives the comfortable feeling of having plenty of breathing room so I don't feel stressed...

Also, just remember, the NT is only near term, and what is more important than the NT spike is how the market itself reacts to that spike... so, if we already have a confirmed sell signal and also a modest buy spike, then I watch how the market responds to that spike while knowing that the main model signal itself always takes first priority...

Today, we see that the modest buy spike didn't rally the market the way it had during previous buy spikes, therefore this shows inherent internal weakness in the market... the main trend is already down and with not much energy to rally despite the near term buy spike, therefore I would suspect lower prices to come...

The NT and main model signals really are simple and together they give you a 3 dimensional compass bearing of where the market is at any moment, but it takes some time to learn how to read them... much like an X-ray... all of us can see the bones in an x-ray, but the radiologist sees lots more in that same x-ray... it just takes some time and working through that learning curve...

An important note here... you may recall the previous overhead major VP at 1685.70 which had a deadline date of August 16th, that's this Friday... that major VP is still very much active, this means a close below that 1685.70 major VP this Friday will confirm yet another main model sell signal...

The December Gold futures

The the main model is currently long gold as of August 8th at 1306.40...

For Thursday, a close below 1274.40 in the December gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal...

The following are the current upside VPs for December gold:

minor - - 1355.40

MAJOR - - 1387.80 and must close below that price on Monday, September 23rd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1414.00

minor - - 1441.90

MAJOR - - 1502.20 and must close below that price on Friday, November 29th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 1544.90 and must close below that price on Monday, December 16th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

As for now, the main model remains long gold...

The email SUGGESTION BOX is always open and invites your ideas for improving and enhancing your email service, I enjoy hearing from you, many thanks...

NOTICE: I SEND OUT AN EMAIL EVERY WEEKDAY EVENING, IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ONE, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, THANKS...