For Thursday, June 15th

"The only person who never makes a mistake is the person who never does anything."

* * * Anonymous

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.27%

For the year 2017: +2.81%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 5/24/17

A close below 2426.11 would turn the BTIT to neutral... JUNE PRICE, WILL USE THE SEPT PRICE BEGINNING TOMORROW

A close below 2372.28 would turn the BTIT to down... SEPTEMBER PRICE

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now stopped out the June SP at about 2431.30 for a 10 point loss... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will always be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For tomorrow, place a buy stop to go long at 2441.40 IN THE SEPTEMBER... SAME PRICE!!! AND IF FILLED, PLACE AN EXIT SELL STOP AT 2431.30 TO GO FLAT!!!

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the September at 2372.20 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2382.30... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long from 2397.70 as of 5/24/17 - - there are now 26 completed trades for a total gain of 542.10 SP points... we took a 9.20 point loss on the previous short position...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S SP HOBAN RULES TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close below 2437.30 in the September contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2432.30 and 2431.30, if filled place an exit stop at 2439.30... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2437.28...

The last trade at this writing is at 2435.00 in the June...

The main model is now long the September SP from 2426.10 as of Wednesday, June 14th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP SEPTEMBER VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2448.17 and must close below that price on Thursday, June 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2437.28

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2435.00

MAJOR - - 2426.12 and must close below that price on Monday, June 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2420.46 and must close below that price on Thursday, June 15th to confirm a new main model sell signal... KEY DAY TOMORROW FOR THIS VP

minor - - 2404.78

minor - - 2400.96

minor - - 2397.45

MAJOR - - 2379.95 and must close above that price on Tuesday, July 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 2342.41

MAJOR - - 2303.06 and must close above that price on Tuesday, August 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for June below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for June below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

Big outside day for the MCI today, looks bullish...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

Looking heavy, all lines are pointing lower...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

Moving sideways again today... no momentum in either direction for now...

The AUGUST Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL as of 6/2/17

A close above 1297.50 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 1217.80 would turn the BTIT to down...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1267.90 as of Monday, June 12th, rolled over from long June gold at 1223.80 on Thursday, May 11th...

Today's last trade is at 1262.80...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Thursday, a close below 1246.10 in the August Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1246.04...

AUGUST GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 1339.69 and must close below that price on Thursday, June 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1304.705

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1262.80

Lots of space between VP prices now...

SVP - - none

minor - - none

MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

All key lines moving lower now... the price is below the anti price, not good for being long...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

Down, no upside momentum any more...

 

The Main Model Formula Continue reading

For Wednesday, June 14th

"The only person who never makes a mistake is the person who never does anything."

* * * Anonymous

You can now follow The Vertical Fund's trading action on Twitter @theverticalfund - - not all trades are posted since the primary focus of the trading team is on the markets

THE VERTICAL FUND: The Vertical Fund is now live and ongoing... this fund trades the same main model VP signals presented in each evening briefing... the difference is that The Vertical Fund is professionally managed by our own professional expert Trading Team, members with a Seat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with more than 30 years experience located right on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange...

THE VERTICAL FUND is in real time since its inception on 9/30/16, however due to the ongoing confusion between the weekly and monthly performance updates, if you're interested in knowing the current performance history, then go to our Website at at https://www.theverticalfund .com/ and also ask me for a password for you to enter through the member's page on that Website... the BTIT optimized trading method is now included in the fund's trading strategy as of 1/4/17...

The performance status of The Vertical Fund as of last Friday's close:

From inception on 9/30/16: +1.27%

For the year 2017: +2.81%

A BRIEF TUTORIAL OF ALL MAIN MODEL APPLICATIONS is at the bottom of every evening briefing, please take the time to review it every now and then, a good working knowledge of these tools will make you a better and more informed investor/trader...

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: UP AS OF 5/24/17

A close below 2426.06 would turn the BTIT to neutral... JUNE PRICES

A close below 2369.11 would turn the BTIT to down... SEPTEMBER PRICES

BTIT Optimized Trade Instructions For Tomorrow:

For the BTIT optimized trader... you are now stopped out the June SP at about 2425.00 for a nice gain on this closed long position... the optimized strategy provides a predetermined limited risk with the optimal time for market participation... there will always be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

For tomorrow, place a buy stop to go long at 2441.40 IN THE SEPTEMBER...

For the BTIT optimized trader... place a sell stop to go short the September at 2369.10 and if filled place a buy stop to go flat at 2377.20... if filled and not stopped out, and the market finishes the day back inside the buy/sell price, then close it out on the close... there will be another opportunity for another optimized position entry...

THE BTIT LONGER TERM TRADING STRATEGY

The broader term intermediate trend (BTIT) bias is determined by the collective penetration of the most near term ceiling and floor prices... when ALL the near term ceiling prices have been penetrated on the close and none of the floor prices are penetrated, then the BTIT bias would be UP... when the reverse occurs, then the BTIT bias would be DOWN... the bias would turn to NEUTRAL when one or more of the ceiling/floor prices are penetrated on the close in the counter direction... when in NEUTRAL, the BTIT would again reinstate the most recent UP or DOWN trend bias upon the penetration and close of the nearest recent ceiling/floor...

A long position will be taken when the BTIT turns up and a short position when the BTIT turns down... when the BTIT turns neutral, the position is then closed and will remain flat...

The BTIT optimized trading strategy is a reliable, valid, and profitable strategy designed for those who prefer a broader longer term trade position without close daily monitoring... the price swings are also significantly wider so caution is always highly advised and only a modest position should be taken for this strategy...

The BTIT current non optimized trade position: Long from 2397.70 as of 5/24/17 - - there are now 26 completed trades for a total gain of 542.10 SP points... we took a 9.20 point loss on the previous short position...

VERY IMPORTANT: Please note, all price signals must be taken from the large contract and then the mini can be traded, the mini gives too many false signals... therefore, the following instructions apply only for the large contract... so, get the signal from the large contract and then trade the mini on that large contract signal... you can take the large contract signal and then trade any SP based ETF on that signal...

TOMORROW'S SP HOBAN RULES TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close below 2437.30 in the September contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... be sure to review the VP price map directly below for additional VP points that may trigger a buy/sell signal...

For Hoban Rule traders, you are now flat this market... for tomorrow, enter a short position with a close between 2432.30 and 2431.30, if filled place an exit stop at 2439.30... please familiarize yourself with the Hoban Rule entry strategy in case a signal is confirmed on a different VP mid day and how to enter a new position mid day using Rule 3, this easy entry strategy is explained in the tutorial at the bottom of each and every evening briefing... of course, any questions, please just ask...

The Hoban Rule Performance History:

The Hoban Rule was introduced to the evening briefing on 9/4/14... since that time, this strategy has now completed 39 trades for a net gain of 252.80 SP points... this is a simple but elegant strategy for anyone who prefers a less challenging trade plan based on the main model signals... if you would like to see the trade by trade score sheet for the Hoban Rule, just ask me for it and I will email it to you...

Rationale: A VP at 2437.28...

The last trade at this writing is at 2428.00 in the June...

The main model is now long the September SP from 2420.40 as of Monday, June 12th...

The Two Main Model Trade Rules:

1) Any time the market trades above any overhead VP price and then closes below it, this would confirm a new main model sell signal...
2) Any time the market trades below any lower VP price and then closes above it, this would confirm a new main model buy signal...

THE VP PRICE MAP FOR TOMORROW

The VP map tells you everything you need to know, consult the map daily... knowing the map and the two key trading rules will make you a much more savvy trader, so it is extremely important to be familiar with the VP map...

Secondary Vertical Prices (SVP) are for the aggressive trader who is looking for an additional edge on additional exhaustion points... you will notice that the market responds as well to the SVP as to the standard VP points and are traded the same, but for now the main model will use only the standard VP points for official main model signals...

SP SEPTEMBER VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 2448.17 and must close below that price on Thursday, June 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 2438.00

minor - - 2437.28

MAJOR - - 2426.12 and must close below that price on Monday, June 26th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

MAJOR - - 2420.46 and must close below that price on Thursday, June 15th to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 2404.78

minor - - 2400.96

minor - - 2397.45

MAJOR - - 2379.95 and must close above that price on Tuesday, July 4th to confirm a new main model buy signal...

minor - - 2342.41

MAJOR - - 2303.06 and must close above that price on Tuesday, August 1st to confirm a new main model buy signal...

SVP - - none

The above price map is listed in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

PLEASE NOTE: It is vitally important to know where the market is on this map at all times, the main model buy and sell signals are generated only from this VP map... the trade rules, which you probably already know by now, are very simple and are explained below...

THE MEGA TREND INDICATOR (MTI) - - UP as of 7/29/16

This is a front loaded comparative month by month trading range and weighted average rate of change of the most recent 11 and 14 months and is calculated on the last market day of each month...

A monthly close for June below 2228.80 would turn the MTI to neutral...

A monthly close for June below 2162.40 would turn the MTI to down...

The MTI current trade position: Long from 2168.20, the closing price on 7/29/16...

This model's buy signal is based on the Coppock Curve and has been back tested to 1914 with the DJIA... there have been a total of 22 previous buy signals over the past 102 years since 1914... of the 22 previous buy signals, only two false signals were given, they were given in October, 1938 and in January, 1948... this is a 90.9% accuracy rate since 1914... realize, this is a monthly indicator and these markets can move widely in both directions during mid month...

THE MARKET CONFIDENCE INDEX (MCI)...

The Market Confidence Index (MCI)...

The MCI is a sensitive and elegant index that measures investor confidence in the equity markets... the MCI consists of two charts, the SPY itself and the MCI index (seen below the SPY chart) which is compared to the SPY chart... by comparing the two charts, you will see numerous subtle differences between them... the first obvious observation is that the MCI diverges at market tops well in advance of the market itself, often by days or even weeks... you will see other divergent patterns that occur in advance of the market that signal a pending change in market direction... the more you study the subtleties the more you will notice... I developed this index and have been following it and have found it well worth including in the evening briefing... if you have any questions regarding this index, please just ask... the way to read the MCI is to look for diverging patterns between the SPY and market confidence... these diverging patterns very typically signal well in advance a meaningful market change in direction...

These graphs show more than two years of chart data... in that time, you can see 6 diverging topping patterns in the MCI, the 5 previous divergent patterns signaled a coming market top of some proportion... we now have the 6th such divergent pattern... we can also see that investor confidence has not been keeping pace with the equity market itself, notice a weakening double top in the MCI while the SPY itself continued higher... this can change, but for now it suggests a market correction seems likely...

You can also see that in October of 2015 the MCI moved sharply higher while the market itself didn't... this also precipitated a dramatic 300 SP point market decline soon thereafter which took four months to complete...

The MCI looks bullish for tomorrow...


THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR

The momentum line works lower, but the flat line shows a nice up spike... we need to see the market price move above the anti price for a sustainable rally... maybe tomorrow...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR THE SP:

The Momentum line turned sideways today, this is definitely encouraging...

The AUGUST Gold futures

BROADER TERM INTERMEDIATE TREND BIAS: NEUTRAL as of 6/2/17

A close above 1297.50 would turn the BTIT to up...

A close below 1217.80 would turn the BTIT to down...

The main model is now long the June gold from 1267.90 as of Monday, June 12th, rolled over from long June gold at 1223.80 on Thursday, May 11th...

Today's last trade is at 1268.70...

TOMORROW'S GOLD TRADE STRATEGY:

For Wednesday, a close below 1246.10 in the August Gold contract would confirm a new main model sell signal... also, please review and consult daily with the VP Price Map for any and all main model mid day buy/sell revisions and updates... tomorrow's trade strategy is always subject to revision based on the VP Price Map, so it is extremely important to be familiar with this map listed below... (the Hoban Rule and the optimized BTIT trading strategy were expressly designed for the SP market and for no other market at this time)

Rationale: A VP at 1246.04...

AUGUST GOLD VP PRICES

MAJOR - - 1339.69 and must close below that price on Thursday, June 22nd to confirm a new main model sell signal...

minor - - 1304.705

TODAY'S LAST TRADED PRICE - - 1268.70

Lots of space between VP prices now...

SVP - - none

minor - - none

MAJOR - - none and must close above that price on none to confirm a new main model buy signal...

The above is a price map in descending order of all currently active vertical prices above and below the market... those in red were generated on previously confirmed buy signals, those in green were generated on previously confirmed sell signals... today's closing price is also included to provide you with a GPS type reading of where the market currently is in relation to all VP points on both sides of the market...

Flat Line Indicator (FLI) for GLD...

THE FLAT LINE INDICATOR HAS BEEN SET FOR TRACKING GLD AND NOT THE FUTURES GOLD MARKET SINCE THE GLD ETF MARKET SHOWS A MORE LIQUID PATTERN...
ALL THE MAIN MODEL SIGNALS FOR THE GOLD FUTURES MARKET WILL STILL REMAIN THE SAME...

A nice up spike in the flat line today, encouraging news...


THE LT PRICE AND MOMENTUM GRAPH FOR GOLD:

The momentum line continues lower, but has curved somewhat sideways today, this is encouraging...

The Main Model Formula Continue reading